Hello everyone, welcome to Baldu Guy Money. And with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and stocks like Nvidia making new all-time highs, it is impossible to deny how resilient the stock market has been, despite my own expectations for weakness during the summer months of 2025. And although we've seen continued strength from both gold and silver, which are still more valuable together than everything else on this list combined, their share of the top 10 investable assets has notably dropped from a 2025 high of 58%


down to 53.4% today. And this has some people wondering if it's time to shift their focus away from precious metals, which are still significantly outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 12 months and jump back into the stock market to benefit from potentially higher gains, especially with talk about gold and silver topping out. So, in this video, I want to cut through all the confusion and start by answering the question, are gold and silver actually topping out? Once that's covered, I want to show you


all some very important changes to the investment landscape while making connections that other YouTube channels are not making to explain why you should review how your portfolio is allocated, especially if you are overweight stocks and underweight on gold and silver because it could be a huge mistake. And to finish this video off, I want to talk about gold and silver confiscation, how the US government is getting interested in commodities like never before, and what clues the European Union might be


giving us when it comes to the legality of buying and owning precious metals in the future. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to check out summitals.com if you want to buy gold and silver from a dealer you can trust. They currently have a discount offer on quarter ounce and 10th ounce gold maples, bratannias, and eagles when you use code summit summer at checkout. And if you're a new customer, please don't forget to claim your 5 oz of silver at spot when you use code new customer at


checkout. And I will leave the link to this deal in the video description below. So, jumping in, are we at the top of the precious metals market right now? Well, I'd say we're not there yet. And I want to use the gold to silver ratio. also known as the GSR, which measures how many ounces of silver it takes to buy 1 ounce of gold. To illustrate this, and what I've done here that's different in past videos is I've added the three-year moving average, which measures the average GSR level over the


last 3 years to see where the average is compared to where we are now. And as you can see, the GSR is currently above the 3-year moving average, but just barely, meaning it's currently higher than what it's been trading at over the last 3 years. And why this is significant is because you really don't see a metals market top or even a local high for that matter until the GSR falls and corrects below that line. in some cases crashing altogether like we saw in 2011. And even though silver is making very strong


moves to the upside right now, when we look at the price of silver on an average basis, meaning the average price for all 365 days in a given year, you can see that the moves up for silver in 2024 and so far in 2025 being up 19 and 20% respectively are nowhere near what we saw in the market blowoff top situation from 2009 to 2011. 1 where the average price of silver rose 39% in 2010 and then a whopping 73% in 2011. And these are clear signs to me that neither gold or silver have seen their tops yet.


Now, for anyone thinking about entering or exiting a gold or silver position right now, this next bit of the video is going to be extremely important because we're going to take a serious look at a couple popular alternatives to precious metals. starting with cash savings. And I'll start by stating the obvious, which is cash, even in a savings account, isn't what it used to be. Because higher rates of inflation and lower available interest rates for regular bank customers, have made cash a losing


proposition in every single country around the world, basically since the early 2000s. Now, to better illustrate this point to you all, I've put this table together and I've shared it here on the channel in the past. And what this shows is what you would have today if you had saved $200 each month since January 2000 in silver, gold, and cash. And just so you know, I'm being fair, I have added a 10% premium to both gold and silver, and I am comparing that to a 5% annual return on your cash, which on an average basis


since 2000 has been basically impossible to get, but I want to make the comparison anyway. And what this data shows us is that cash at a very generous 5% per year since 2000 would have returned you 100% versus your total investment of $61,400. Meaning you've doubled your money over that time, but I doubt you've beaten inflation. Now when we compare that to silver, it has returned 193% on a dollar cost average basis over that very same period, buying $200 worth of silver a month, even at a 10% premium above spot.


And gold has returned nearly 300%, proving my point that cash over the long term is indeed trash. So, for the average investor, the only thing we can reasonably compare gold and silver to is the stock market. And we're going to use the S&P 500 to do that, using the same principle of $200 a month invested each month since January 2000. And I am not even going to hide the fact that the S&P 500 has done extremely well over that period of time because I'm not against owning stocks like some metals YouTubers


are. And even though on a nominal basis, gains on the S&P 500 since January 2000 are actually lower on a dollar cost average basis than returns on gold with the S&P up 276% versus gold at 297%. When you factor in dividends, assuming you simply reinvest them all, the S&P 500 is the clear winner here, up almost 400% since January 2000 on a dollar cost average basis, including dividend reinvestment. But for those of you who think this is a sign that the S&P 500 is the only thing you need to own and that


by owning precious metals, you are actually losing money because the money you use to buy gold and silver could have made a bigger gain in stocks. There is something you need to know and that is with the takeover of major tech companies on the S&P 500 index, the average dividend yield, which is really what separated metals and stocks in that comparison. I just showed you all is falling and that passive income that stocks on the S&P 500 used to generate for you is going away. And because of


that, I think a fairer comparison is to measure the performance of silver, gold, and the S&P 500 from 2020 after the dip in the S&P 500's dividend level in a postc9 environment where people focus heavily on tech and growth stocks. And if we compare these three things since then, you can see even with the stock market at all-time highs. So, you can't accuse me of cherrypicking the data here, especially because this is counting a $200 each month investment since January 2020. Precious metals have


done quite well. In fact, gold has outperformed the S&P 500, even when you include dividends since 2020 with gold up 52% over that period versus the S&P 500 including dividends up 47% which by the way isn't far off from Silver's 44% return over the same period. Now, looking forward to the future, on top of factoring in falling dividends, we have to factor in coming US legislation that potentially changes the playing field for precious metals versus the S&P 500. And that is the executive order that


Donald Trump is planning to sign that will let 401k retirement plans invest in cryptocurrencies, gold, private equity, and although we haven't heard anything about silver yet, may open them up to silver, too via a general category of metals. But that bit is still to be confirmed. Now, the order hasn't been signed yet, but it could happen soon and if passed will lead to billions of dollars from the $9 trillion 401k market flowing into gold as investors diversify their main retirement savings portfolio. So, coming


back to this data that stretches back to January 2000, it would be incorrect of me to say that stocks stink and that you shouldn't own any at all. And I'm not going to say that. But I will say that enough has changed over the past 6 years with more changes on the way that we shouldn't expect a onetoone continuation of this over the next 25 years. Because when you put all of the elements I've just talked about together, the falling interest rates for cash savers, lower dividends for stock investors, the


potential of opening the $9 trillion 401k market, at least in part to precious metals, plus the central bank gold stacking trend we've seen really accelerate since 2022. I'd say being underweight on gold and silver, so not having enough of it, is a bigger risk today than not owning any stocks at all. And I encourage each and every one of you watching this video to look at your investment portfolios and ask yourselves, are you ready for the reality where the S&P 500, arguably since 2020, no longer has a clear and


obvious advantage over precious metals? because 2% in gold and silver in my opinion simply isn't going to cut it moving forward. And I want you all to be aware of that. So, with that covered, it's time for this week's viewer question. And please remember, I answer one viewer question in every single video I do. I take them from the comments section below. So, please leave your question for me in the comments section below. I read them all. And you never know, I may choose yours to appear


in my next video. And this week's question comes from Gun Bjorn who asked me if I think it's possible that governments make silver ownership illegal due to increasing scarcity of the metal. And I assume he is referring to the prolonged supply deficits we are seeing for silver. So to start, it's clear that demand for silver is outpacing the rate at which it is being mined out of the ground. And a lack of investment in new mines over the past 15 years or so means this problem isn't


going away anytime soon. Especially when you factor in the growing industrial demand for silver and growing investor interest in physical silver due to higher metals prices. And because of that, serious news outlets are starting to report on the fact that silver, could start to catch the eye of national governments, much like some rare earth minerals have, driving the price up much higher in a much more sustainable way than we've seen in the past. And a great example of this is how the Pentagon, so


the US Department of Defense, recently took a 60% stake in the mining company MP Materials, a company that mines rare earth metals used in magnets that are critical in defense systems. Now what this means is if we see silver classified as critical and see the US government or another large government start to take interest in it for example if the Pentagon decides to buy a silver miner we would likely see a major spike not only in the company they buy like we've seen in MP materials which you can


see here on the screen right now but across the board for silver miners and for the price of physical silver itself. And I think what we've seen with MP materials is likely the model we're going to see moving forward, at least for the foreseeable future. Meaning that instead of confiscating metals, we will see a situation where a government, possibly the US government, becomes a major buyer, driving price up, not only on the physical side, but also from the supply side by purchasing miners. That


said, that doesn't mean there isn't any risk to changes in how we deal with precious metals today. Because the real risk precious metal stackers may face in the future is a possible ban, not on owning precious metals, but on buying them or at least buying any new supply. And it's news coming out of the European Union with their central bank saying gold poses a risk to financial stability that has got me really thinking about this. And I was waiting for a good moment to cover it and I think this is


the time because gold recently passed the euro to become the world's second largest global reserve asset. And what I think they're really afraid of and the United States could be worried about it too is not sudden spikes in the price of gold disrupting the trading of the commodity like they claim is their worry. But what they're really worried about is a continued migration out of fiat currencies like the dollar and the euro and into gold to a lesser extent silver as well causing a drop in demand


for their currencies and for their debt making it harder for them to artificially prop up their economies. And we've seen clues to this with ideas coming out of the European Commission suggesting that special accounts be set up at banks that allow the European Union to tap into the 10 trillion of what they like to call unused savings so they can fund military and social programs without having to convince savers that they should lend their money to EU governments via the purchase of bonds. So this would basically bypass


that. But every 1uro that goes into precious metals is€1 they cannot access, which poses a threat to their plan and gives them an incentive not to confiscate precious metals, as I've already said, but to ban the ability to purchase them, specifically newly minted bullion products. meaning whatever the private supply of gold and silver is in the market today will trade amongst the population with no new supply being added. Now although I am entertaining the idea I don't think a ban on buying


precious metals is the model they will go for neither in Europe or the United States because if push comes to shove and these governments really need gold and silver and have difficulty procuring it. What I think will happen instead is what we are already seeing in the European Union for silver, which is a sales tax or value added tax added to the price of metals, making them less affordable and less viable as a savings mechanism for regular people. And although I have said that metals confiscation is a nonsense idea multiple


times on this channel in the past, not only do I think this taxation model is a possibility, I think it's something people should prepare for by continuing to stack on a schedule now before such taxes come into place. Because if increasing demand motivates governments to attack private physical investment demand for gold and silver, it means things for their fiat currencies aren't trending in the right direction. And we know that's the case already. And because of that, you'll still want to


own gold and silver. The only thing is, as many Europeans who are already paying high value added taxes on silver today know very well, it's that it will simply become more expensive to do so. And that's why I think it's better to get ahead of that and forget about the tales of confiscation that fearmongers want you to believe in order to support whatever marketing it is around the business that they're involved with is because we don't need fear as a motivating factor to stack gold and


silver. In fact, I do it out of confidence. confidence that the trend we've seen established over the last 25 years, which have resulted in higher metals prices and currency debasement around the world are going to continue. And I think anyone seriously preparing for their financial future needs to do the same because as I've presented in this video, the financial game is being stacked against the little guy. All thanks to lower interest rates, falling dividend yields, higher rates of inflation, which are associated of


course with the debasement of fiat currency and it's hard asset ownership. So owning gold, silver, land, productive dividend paying stocks, maybe some income generating real estate, that is really going to determine where you end up as the disparity in wealth between rich and poor continues to grow. And that's why I urge you all to open the books and make sure you're not too deep in the banker's game and get yourself some hard assets before it becomes more difficult to do so. So, Mr. Gun Bjorn, I


hope that answers your question adequately. And to everybody out there watching, if you enjoyed this content, please make some noise for the algorithm. Leave a like below. Leave your comments and questions for me below. You never know, I may choose your question to appear in a future video. And as I say at the end of all of my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. And a part of that is, of course, sharing this content with people you think need to hear this message. But


until the next time we see each other, everybody, goodbye.