Gold news

 Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And as I am recording this video, of course, a war has started between the United States, Israel, and Iran. And although markets are currently closed, we can see the preliminary reaction of gold prices by looking at Tether Gold and Pax Gold, which are digital tokens backed by physical gold, allegedly backed by physical gold, that trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week online. And I'm not recommending these tokens, but I do encourage you to follow their price

development on the weekends because they do give an insight that suggests gold prices could move higher at least when markets open on Monday morning in Australia and Asia and Sunday night in the United States with PAX gold up 1.7% versus where spot price closed on Friday and Tether Gold up 0.5% versus that Friday close. That said, both have lost a lot of steam, seeing significant pullbacks from the highs since the confirmation of Ayatollah Kmeni's death, prompting some to ask if this is not a buy the rumor sell the

news event with both gold and silver, which is currently trading up 3.9% versus its Friday market close, poised to pull back once US markets open on Monday as these digital versions of gold and silver usually attract people who are more enthusiastic about metals than institutional investors who have more influence on the prices are. Now, it's still early in this conflict. We don't know how long this is going to last, but of course, for the sake of human life, I hope it ends quickly. That said, in this

video, I want to take a look without getting political or taking sides at how wars have impacted metals prices in the past. I want to zoom in on how that applies to this war with Iran and then cover new developments we just got this past week that are certain to have an impact on gold and silver prices over the long term. So watch till the end for that and know that I will be making a midweek video to update you all on the situation for gold, silver, mining stocks and oil stocks as this situation

evolves. So, if you're new, please make sure you subscribe to my channel and make sure you stay updated. Now, to those of you all of a sudden rushing back to gold and silver for the first time since the January 30th correction, I hope this is a wakeup call that you shouldn't wait for these types of events to buy. You should be preparing for them beforehand because new highs are on the way. That said, if you're counting on higher prices, you are in luck because the market is closed and you can buy

today at the prices the market closed at on Friday from summitmetals.com. All of their gold and silver is real. No scams, no fakes, no tears, and you get amazing customer service while supporting what I do here on YouTube. And remember, if you're looking to sell into this strength because maybe you need some cash, they will buy your gold and silver too at a fair price. So check them out at summitmetals.com. So jumping in, I received this question last week from a viewer called that one guy 1776.

Great date by the way, who asked me what I think prices of gold and silver will do if the United States goes into Iran. And I knew I was going to be answering this question early on Friday as I saw oil prices and metals prices rising massively heading into the weekend. And for me, that was a clear sign that this was the weekend for the war to start. Now, we often look at war as this huge catalyst for higher gold and silver prices. And we saw it at the start of the Russia Ukraine war with a sustained

two-week rise in metals prices before we saw a pullback. And we saw a slightly different example of that in the first hour of trading following the June 22nd, 2025 operation midnight hammer when the United States bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, which caused a large move up initially that fizzled out shortly after as the United States claimed that hostilities with Iran would end. So, as you can see, there is clearly a difference in how long higher gold and silver prices can sustain a move up

driven by conflict depending on how serious the market thinks the conflict will be. So, the first question we have to answer is how serious does the market think this conflict is going to be? Well, it's obvious that this isn't Operation Midnight Hammer. It's not a one night job because first of all most of the Iranian leadership has been eliminated as a result of it and despite that the attacks from both sides continue. In addition to that we are seeing military and civilian locations

as a part of a fear campaign being targeted by both sides. And what's notable is we're even seeing Iran strike the Gulf countries with direct strikes on US military bases, oil infrastructure, and even tourist spots in Dubai. So, it's safe to say that the market is going to take this much more seriously than Operation Midnight Hammer. President Trump himself has said bombings will continue over the week and gambling prediction markets, which I do not recommend or endorse, are hinting at

a military campaign that lasts two to four weeks before a ceasefire is reached with no idea about what comes after that, if it results in regime change, who is going to be in that regime, or even who they are going to be aligned with. as I can't imagine Russia and China are going to idly sit by and not try to influence what's happening within Iran, especially knowing that a boots on the ground campaign led by the United States is not likely due to how unpopular this conflict is even amongst

a large portion of President Trump's base. But before you assume a new all-time high will be made for metals as soon as markets open on Monday, know this. Pax Gold, which is a leading digital gold token that is allegedly backed by real physical gold and trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, traded up to $5,600 an ounce in the early hours after the attack on Iran began. And despite that large move up early on, it sold off shortly after matching its all-time intraday trading high from January 29th.

And this indicates that even if we make a new all-time high as soon as next week, which is possible depending on how things develop from here, which is why I'm planning to do a midweek update for you all, gold can and likely will experience some resistance at that previous all-time high before breaking it. Now on the other side of the coin, something you absolutely have to keep in mind is how sharply both Pax Gold and Tether Gold sold off following rumors that Ayatollah Kmeni was eliminated in

air strikes and then sold off once again once that was confirmed by Iranian media, which brought it back all the way down to the price it closed at on Friday. And this is telling us that there absolutely is a premium factored into the price of gold right now that can and will be priced out if we see a surprise but much welcomed end to this war. That said, as things stand today, although we all want the death to end, I am not counting on a quick resolution to this. And I assess the downside risk,

even if we see a buy the rumor, sell the news pullback for gold as being very low, as this additional layer of geopolitical instability has undoubtedly raised the price floor on gold to somewhere between $4,900 to $5,000 an ounce. Now, when it comes to silver, the situation, strangely enough, is far less volatile. And of course, this could be because weekend trading of Kinesis silver, which I'm using as my benchmark for weekend silver prices, is mostly driven by people who are permanently bullish on silver. That said, we haven't

seen the same news-driven moves for silver like we've seen for gold in weekend trading. And although I give almost no weight to Kinesis silver prices as a reliable indicator of what's going to happen next, I will say that this data point by itself suggests a potential continuation of the bullish moves we saw for silver made last week, which we will explore more in a moment. But just before we do that, the major question remains, what comes after the likely initial move up for gold and silver and after this war has ended?

Because as you can see here, the long-term impact to gold and silver prices based on how the market assesses a conflict varies drastically versus what I showed you about the short-term impact. Because where the Russia Ukraine move up was sustained over two 2 and 1/2 weeks versus only hours for the operation midnight hammer move, both gold and silver made large moves down shortly after the start of the Russia Ukraine war. while gold and silver have risen dramatically since the 2025 operation Midnight Hammer. And the reason for that

is because although metals are influenced by uncertainty and geopolitical factors that are leading to the dollarization, they most closely follow real interest rates which were on the rise in 2022 as the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world raised interest rates and were already falling in 2025. And that is the signal we need to focus on while blocking out the short-term noise caused by this conflict. Now, I've spoken about this before, but I have an update for you all in this video, especially for those of

you on the fence when it comes to buying gold and silver. So, the real rate is the interest rate minus the rate of inflation, better called the rate at which prices are rising. And depending on what number you follow or what agency you believe, I don't think there's any doubt that prices are not only still rising, but rising quicker than the Federal Reserve's goal of 2% per year with core PCE inflation, which happens to be the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve rising to 3% in

the last reading and producer prices rising 0.5% overall in January, which would be more than 6% over the course of a year if that number stayed there. So, it's clear that inflation isn't going to disappear anytime soon. Now, back in 2022, I could have said that high inflation was negatively impacting metals prices because higher inflation meant that interest rates would continue to be raised. They would continue to go higher until the situation was under control. And that's parking, of course, all of

the ddollarization and silver deficit arguments to the side. But in 2026, on top of those very real macro drivers pushing metals prices higher, those being ddollarization and silver supply deficits, I can't say that higher inflation represents a major risk to metals prices today like they did in 2022 because there is a 74% chance of seeing two to three more rate cuts by December 2026 despite bad inflation numbers. that are likely already higher than what most people can get as an interest rate on their cash savings.

Meaning cash is trash and we're still only in the early days of this shift out of cash, out of the US dollar with regular retail investors like you and like me still underallocated to precious metals. Now, although I admit these higher inflation numbers paired with a potential quick resolution to the situation in Iran could cause some short-term volatility, potentially even a pullback for gold and silver, especially if someone from the Fed came out and said they may not cut rates, much like we saw Jerome Powell threaten

in October of last year, which led to a pullback for both gold and silver. Overall, it seems the market isn't buying it. They're not buying these short-term threats. Or maybe I should say they're not selling these short-term threats. In fact, if anything, these pullbacks are being bought up much more aggressively than even I had anticipated with silver on a technical basis, breaking above the $92 per ounce resistance level just this past Friday, which if it can hold on to on Monday and

Tuesday, tells us $100 silver could happen as soon as March along with new record highs for gold as the mining stocks are foreshadowing continued strength in metals prices having now come back in most cases to their January highs. So, the message here as it relates to what is happening in the market today is despite the risk of short-term volatility and a possible buy the rumor, sell the news type pullback, use the time you have now to prepare for all-time highs on gold and silver to be caused not by war, but caused by

persistent inflation paired with lower interest rates caused by ddollarization and central bank buying of gold at record levels. caused by supply deficits for silver which is getting atomized in missiles 10 to 15 ounces at a time right now while supply has remained stable for years and caused by the continued migration of money out of the US dollar and out of US dollar denominated assets into gold and silver which I told you all back in 2024 would occupy the first and second positions on this list of top

10 investable assets ranked by market cap by 2026 and today they represent more than 65% of the value on this list combined. This number is growing and that growth is outpacing what we're seeing in tech stocks despite an AI revolution because quietly in the background as an AI revolution is unfolding right before our very eyes there is another revolution happening and it is in our money. The US dollar and fiat currencies are a sinking ship. So instead of getting greedy and waiting to buy a magical bottom, get some gold

and silver now. Get on a buying schedule, Summit Metals can help you with that with their auto invest option and get some of your net worth in gold and silver today. Don't miss the boat because once the ship sinks, the price you paid for the lifeboat will not matter. Debt is out of control around the world. Uncertainty is arguably at its highest levels since the early 2000s. Real interest rates are going below zero and even lower. And gold and silver have proven that this is the environment they do best in. So with

that said, that's it for this video. Please remember to look out for my midweek update as we get more developments about what's happening not only in the market but as well as what's happening with the conflict in Iran, how it's impacting precious metals, how it's impacting oil stocks, which I started buying at the end of last year and let you all know about back in I believe it was October or November of last year. So, please look out for that update coming on later this week. With that

said, I want to wish you all a fantastic day ahead. Please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. Let's all pray for peace in the world. Wishing you a fantastic week ahead. See you in the next video. Goodbye.