[Music] thank you I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing youth Network and here today with me is Gareth Solway Chief Market strategist at inthemoneystocks.com and verifiedinvesting.com Garrett thank you so much for joining me today great to see you oh it is great to see you as well thank you for having me of course really nice to be catching up with you and we have so much going on right now I think where I want to start is with the latest inflation data we got both CPI and PPI last week so I wondered


if you could walk us through those numbers what we saw there what we stood out to you yeah so so we saw the CPI nppi numbers declining just a little bit which is what the market wanted to see I think the one thing that stood out to me is that if you stripped out the core from the CPI the number didn't really fall much in fact it uptick to very very slightly so again the PPI number was a very good number it told us that on the producer side inflation is dropping the CPI number if you took out food and


energy it was not dropping quite as much so right now the Market's liking this we're seeing a good risk on environment but I want to see what happens as we get into earnings season and what happens if we look at a recession like the FED has now said we will get in the second half of the year right and you know you've reminded us before that you know it's going to take a while to get down to that two percent inflation number that is the fed's Target so I wonder if you can talk a


little bit more about that and how close we can possibly get yeah so so I think the key is like you know when you're getting inflation to come down from nine percent or so the initial move down will be very quick because again that was really inflated due to supply chain issues and other things like that the trouble is always the last little bit and I always liken this to you know people can get in shape or I can get in shape but how much more do I have to do to just get that six-pack right it's the it's that last


little bit that's the hardest to achieve and I think for me that's looking at the market and the economy and saying okay inflation should come back to three percent give or take but can the FED get it to two percent can they get it to below two percent and I'm skeptical on that I think it could take years for us to get below two percent again and that's going to put handcuffs on the FED in terms of if we do hit this light recession they're predicting now how do they get us out of that or does it turn


in and this is my fear is that it turns into a recession that lasts a long time we find ourselves in this light recession but one that lasts for potentially a year or two yeah and I wonder about what other factors the FED may be looking at as it makes this its next move coming up what else are you seeing there yeah so I think the FED is probably on point to raise 25 basis points more I think they're being a little bit more careful now because of the banking crisis even though we've seen that the


banking crisis seems to have subsided one of the concerns I have is looking at the Regional Bank ETF the kre and the kre still is showing us that we're not really out of this crisis we're not bouncing back and getting back some of the losses that we had on that chart and so you have to be as an investor someone who's very concerned here that maybe things could escalate again at some point and I think one thing to pay attention to is Jamie dimon recently did say that it's not over and that there


are still possible hiccups in the banking system to come and the market again is in this groove of ignoring a lot of these things you know they ignored the FED saying we were going to have a slight recession they're ignoring Jamie Diamond saying saying this um Warren Buffett was on CNBC recently and he said that one of his retail companies their sales year over year were down 22 percent Market ignored it wasn't even a headline so there are these things that are going on right now that to me have me being coming more and


more conservative and more and more bearish while the overall Market seems to be ignoring this and it's risk on yeah you know we've been talking about the FED coming out and saying okay we're heading toward a recession this is something that you've been telling us is going to happen for quite a while and you know I wondered if you can talk about what you think that we will see in terms of recession yeah so I think the FED again and this is the tricky thing is that the FED set a mild recession um


they also said inflation was going to be transitory and we know what happened there so I think the FED has a huge credibility problem I certainly don't put a lot of credence into what they say it's going to be I mean if they're telling us it's going to be a mild recession I would generally price into my investments a mid-level recession right and so I think investors have to be aware of that is do you trust the FED I mean if the fed's telling you this do you think it's going to be that or is it


going to be worse than what they say um so for me it's saying okay a recession's coming the question to me is how do we get out of a recession the past 15 years the FED has bailed us out because inflation's been below two percent what now happens if inflation at three percent or three and a half percent can they bail us out without causing a massive spike in inflation again like we saw in the 80s so so it's again it's it you know this is this is now entering to me a phase of the stock


market of of Investments where investors now have to be very careful historically when the FED actually even Cuts rates that's been a period where the stock market actually declines even though right now it seems like investors would be thrilled If the Fed started to make money cheaper the reason why historically the markets have declined is because if the fed's cutting something in the economy is really broken and they're feeling forced to cut and that again would be a situation where I would be very nervous if we get


to that point right and you know we actually haven't spoken since all of this turmoil in the banking sector began and I wonder your thoughts on that and if you think that this is maybe just the beginning or if we really are through it like some people seem to be thinking yeah so I'm not sure about the banking sector itself if we'll have some major issues you know that continue but the one thing I do know is that when you have inflation well when you have interest rates that are at 0.25 basis points and you raise


them to five percent in a very short period of time you're going to break things in the system the banking sector the regional banks that we saw go under that was just the start to me that was a Tremor before something bigger so I highly doubt that when they Jack rates up this much that that's the only issue we have and that somehow we're going to avoid any sort of major recession or major breakages in the economy I'm more in the camp that this is probably a precursor to some other big things that


are coming down the pike and just out of curiosity were you able to find ways to trade that uncertainty in the banking industry that we saw yeah so that's the beautiful thing about it is I'm a more short-term Trader meaning I day trade I swing trade swing trading is holding for days or weeks or even a couple months and so when you get added volatility like this in the stock market in asset prices there usually is fear driven selling which is over an overreaction and then fear or greed driven buying which is an overreaction


and so there's counter Trend plays to that so so it actually has been an amazing trading environment in the stock market even in crypto but again it's it's not for the faint of heart you have to kind of be willing to step up when everyone else is panicking yes which is always tricky so I want to move over to Gold because that's what our audience is usually the most interested in so hold we see it getting a little bit more comfortable over 2 000 which is different than the other times


the old has passed this level it's kind of in the past gone above 2000 and then gone quit pretty quickly back so are the charts telling you that something is different for gold this time yeah so to me this is this is definitely the real deal right and part of it is going historically back to the 1970s I think we've talked about that before how how the pattern that we saw from 2018 to 2020 from 2020 to 2022 and now this starting up move is totally almost a replica of what happened in the 1970s


where gold actually after that consolidation period started to do a 9x return it went from about a hundred dollars to about nine hundred dollars an ounce now again I don't think that we'll do a 9x here on gold at these levels but at the same time to me this is the replication of of human sentiment and and what's going to come forward so I do think that per the charts and I've been bullish on gold for the last couple years is that we should break the all-time Highs at around 2075. and I


think by year end you're looking at 2300 at minimum and I think really 5 000 within a year or two is very very possible this should be the new bull market here um in in asset prices is if you will and I think it's long overdue and we should see yeah I mean I'm I continue to be very very bullish on gold yeah you know we've been talking about gold for a long time and I remember when we spoke at the end of last year you said that 2050 2070 level was where there was resistance so I wondered if


you could talk a little bit more about Gold's path forward in 2023 and just how we could see that unfold yeah so so the way charts dictate right is that you have we have a very clear resistance from the high of 2020 here to the high of 2022 here all right so we know that there were investors that were kind of up there buying and up here buying and each time we pulled back so what that's going to do is it's going to trigger when we get back to that level there's going to be some investors that


say Hey listen every time it's gotten here it's pulled back so I'm going to sell into that and what that does is It ultimately causes a pullback at that level it's called a triple top in this case so off of this the way triple tops usually work you get a small pullback of those sellers but the overall macro bullish pattern here this is when see if we look at this bigger pattern it's all sideways yes it kind of came down then up then down then up but overall it's a sideways Channel that's a bullish


channel that tells you the macro the bigger move is going to be a big breakout to the upside so again in 2023 I do think we touched the highs here the triple top you'll probably get a little bit of a pullback a few sellers that say I'll take my prop profits and run here but then I expect by end of year to break Above This level okay so we have some idea of The Upside percent potential for gold in 2023. I do always like to ask you about how low we could go partially because it's something we should know partially


because that's that's an area where people might want to buy so how does that look like for you so in terms of buyers what I've been what I've been saying is to buy the pullbacks right so you never pay up when something's gone on a run for 10 days in a row or something never pay up because you'll inevitably get a pullback the question is where do you buy and and basically for that what we can see is if you take the high from 2022 to this High there's this downsloping trend line and


then you have this up sloping trend line as well and what we're seeing is that those two are getting closer and closer to the same level so for me that creates a Confluence of two major support lines and if we were to get a pullback on gold here to basically 1925 to 1900 that would be a really good technical support to buy for that next leg up that possibly could see a breakout through the 2075 level okay very useful and you know if we're talking about gold we have to mention silver as well so Silver's been on the


Move we saw it get past 25 even 26 but we are still a long way from 30 dollars per ounce for Silvers and I know that's a level that a lot of people are excited to eventually see so is thirty dollars for silver a possibility in 2023 I do think it is a possibility I mean it's definitely the high end of my Target and again we can see that gold is much closer to that double triple top than silver is at this point part of that reasoning is also if if we are going to a recession then the industrial


side of silver suffers while the store of safety still helps it so so it has something working against it during a potential recessionary situation having said that I still think that by year end if Gold's gonna make a move towards 2300 it makes sense that you could probably double top on Silver between 29 and 30 dollars I do think silver eventually breaks out I think most of Commodities because inflation is going to stay high for a longer period of time most Commodities do do very well but I think


at least for this year my high-end Target would be that double triple top all right and when we talk about gold and silver I know that people always want to care about the stocks as well and investors some investors at least are still disappointed to not see their gold and silver stock Investments moving along with the prices so what are your thoughts there do you see the stocks catching up with the metals and when might we see that happen yeah so so I think one of the things that most investors had a hard time with in 2022


is that the miners underperformed even gold and silver so dramatically and and the reason that happened is because you had inflation that was super high and and ultimately the metal prices weren't keeping up with the inflation right so inflation was much higher than what we were getting out of gold and silver in terms of upside and what that meant is that the input costs for these gold miners were skyrocketing but they weren't able to sell gold and silver for higher prices at the time which made


their their their markets essentially much weaker their stock price much weaker that is actually changing now what we're seeing is inflation is starting to come down while the price of metals is going up so you actually should see a reversal now where the miners actually outperform dramatically to the upside if I'm correct that the metals do go higher so I think they will play catch-up and I think again a lot of the medals will do really really well again if I look at GDX here GDX has had


quite the run so I wouldn't be a buyer just yet wait for it to pull back maybe to this pivot high around 3320 and then that's where you would start to nibble a little bit at that price okay so thank you for going through what's going on in the precious metal is always good to check in on that we also should talk about what's going on in Bitcoin which I know you follow this Market really closely so we have seen Bitcoin moving as well curious to know what you think about what's going on


there is the sustainable what might we see next yeah so so we are at an epic level on bitcoin all right and what I mean by that is that in in terms of psychology of the market this level is the top level to watch meaning that if we can break it that's very bullish that the lows are officially in on bitcoin at fifteen thousand seven hundred if we can't then to me there's still an opening for Bitcoin to go down to 12 to 13 000 level and maybe even below that and the reason I bring up this level at


3 500 specifically is if we take a trend line and we go back to the lows starting in 2021 before the Big Pop then the retrace came right back in there where we hammered on it for a long period of time we then had the run to 69 000 and we came back in and Consolidated right along that line so psychologically when we broke this that was very bearish for crypto if we could get above it and stay above it then that's very bullish for crypto so again right now we have made a full round trip from this breakdown here


all the way back to that level but we're still hammering on that level and again the level's approximately thirty thousand five hundred so for me this is an epic level to watch I want to see can it get above can it stay above if it gets above um if it does I think that bodes very well that the crypto markets have bottomed out for this bear Market cycle I know that you focused really closely on what's going on with the charts and the data but could you give some insight on what exactly is driving the Bitcoin


price right now yeah so so it's so interesting on the Bitcoin price because number one when it was at 15 15 7 20 000 even we were oversold there's no doubt about it we were just coming off of ftx's collapse lots of fear all that stuff anytime you get a maximum fear you're going to get a reflex buy and kind of pop it's just the nature of the cycle of markets what ended up happening is after we were up here we started to fall back down and then the banking crisis happened and I think there was a


lot of money that went right in from the Regionals into Bitcoin right I mean and again I've said this before but if there's one reason for Bitcoin to be Bitcoin and be what it is that crisis in the banking markets showed it right I mean that's exactly what Bitcoin is supposed to be it's supposed to be an alternative to the fiat currency system and the banks and all that stuff so that really propelled new money in and then as of now we've seen seem generally a risk on environment in stocks in


cryptocurrencies which has kept it kind of grinding higher so I think that was kind of a little bit of a situation where it was very very good for the crypto markets in Bitcoin now again the big question is can it get through here if the stock market starts to decline precipitously does that pull it back down I do think it's still a risk asset even though it's still showing signs every once in a while of being a store of safety so as of now as long as we stay below this 30 500 level I'm going


to remain slightly bearish thinking we still are not through the bear Market but again if we get above there then then it could be a game changer very tricky so we have to be watching closely those levels I want to check in just on the downside for Bitcoin in 2023 I think you mentioned 12 000 just now as we've been talking as a possible low point when we talked at the end of last year you thought that perhaps it could even get down to nine thousand is that still a possibility or is that out of


the cards at this point so that that is still a possibility um again the bigger question is is on the levels when do we break right so so the way the way as a Trader I work is that each level is a level until it's broken so so let's just say we pull back here we could very clearly see that there was a lot of support here where it kind of Consolidated and that level's around twenty six thousand seven hundred we then have a level at 25 and then this beautiful upsloping trend line around


22. as we break those levels like if we break 22 here you then have this pivot low at around 19 and change essentially 20 and then the double bottom at 15 7. so so for me it's going to be more of a stage I still think that's possible I find it very hard to believe that somehow the crypto Market has bottomed with so much bullishness in it you never really got the panic and fear even with FTX you didn't get people saying I'm gonna I'm throwing out crypto it's done you know for the most part it was by the


dip and that's that's a very concerning mentality if you look at all the bottoms in markets in history that doesn't happen also you have so many cryptos that are still out there that have very minimal use case if any and they're still alive and well versus in the.com Era you basically saw a washout of of those dot-coms that had no use case so so there's a lot of signals to me that are very concerning and so I want to be very careful about you know whether or not we can get down to 12 or 13. I think


we still can nine if we break 12 to 13 then we're headed right for nine I think that gives us a lot of insight into your strategy you know you're constantly readjusting you're looking at the markets every day of course I want to ask you know where have you seen the most success in your trading so far in 2023 now that we're more than a quarter into the year yeah so for me the most success has come from short-term trading right where when we get this volatility in the markets I'm jumping in and then I'm jumping out


and then I'm usually getting back in at around the same level so it's been a Trader's Market I think that when you had the FED intervention with all the money printing it basically made the markets just go sideways to up for long periods of time I remember the vix getting down sub 10 over the last five or so years when the when the printing was going on when quantitative easing was going on and that was very detrimental to people like me who are swing traders who like the quick moves


the volatility now we're back in a volatile market and that is just gravy for us that want to get in and want to get out and I can make so much more money than a long-term investor by trading the levels back and forth and just like you said it's a matter of I'm a Trader that's always re-analyzing right every day I'm doing a risk reward assessment I'm doing a probability assessment are we going to bounce here are we going to break here How's that gonna play and then that dictates my


daily trades on a consistent basis so to me it feels like volatility is not going away anytime soon so it probably will remain a Trader's Market but how do you see it for the rest of the year yeah I'm with you I think that the market was kept neutralized almost like being a drugged patient where the Fed was injecting this money and it was just keeping the markets kind of in zombie mode grinding higher you now have a patient that's getting off the drugs right the FED stops printing the money


and now it becomes a much more real life situation where there's volatility there's craziness and as long as the FED isn't coming back and printing money you're going to get this more volatile Market which means Traders and investors need to be more Nimble you can't just be an investor that and to me goes to sleep and says hey I'll check back in three years and I hope I did well that was the old way the new way is to be more of an active Trader all right so as we're wrapping up I want


to check in on one of your calls for 2023 which was that gold will outperformed both Bitcoin and the s p this year this is the same call that you made last year and it didn't come true last year so now that we are about four months into the year how is that standing for you is that still what you're thinking it is still what I'm thinking so gold performed amazingly well I think it's beating the s p right now not obviously Bitcoin this year uh but I do think that Bitcoin could run


into some serious issues by before year end so I'm gonna stick with the safe steady gold trade here and again part of it is being a risk adverse in a market where we don't know the outcomes of banking crisis and different things like that and I think that's the play right now is to be safer and be kind of in the sure bet versus going for the kind of the home run which could be Bitcoin maybe continuing up but Bitcoin could also drop 20 30 40 percent in a very short amount of time okay so gold is still in that's always


what I like to hear do you have any final words that you would lead the audience with as we're revving up yeah I think just just keep in mind that this is a market where you know the good Traders and investors Will Stand Out bear markets notoriously show you who can who basically can trade and who can't in a bull market everyone looks like a genius but what I always say to people is is you know take five minutes a day and try to learn one thing about the charts learn one thing about human


psychology and in a year you will be a totally different investor with so much more insight making such much better decisions so again just a little education on a daily basis makes a big difference really great so thank you so much for joining me always great to hear from you I'm sure we'll catch up again soon great to have you today though thank you so much for having me Charlotte you take care of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing News Network and this is Sierra Solway within


the moneystocks.com and verifiedinvesting.com [Music] foreign