[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Ola Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Thank you very much for the invit. Really good to be speaking with you. There's definitely a lot going on in the markets. So, we've got a lot to go through. You just released your latest quarterly outlook. So, I'm going to pull some topics from there. And where I thought we could start is with gold because for our audience, it's


definitely top of mind right now. So, I believe you have for your top price in 2025 about 3,300 for gold, which feels pretty attainable right now, but I'm wondering if you have an idea of the timeline, how we get there. How how are you seeing gold right now? Well, I'm seeing gold as the uh almost as the ultimate safe haven uh together with a very short end of the uh the bond market and some currencies especially after we we had this tariff bazooka from Trump in less than well just about a


week ago um which then said later on was delayed by 90 days but but the damage had already been done. We've seen some significant sell-offs in the in the equity market. We've seen unrest in the bond market as well with with yields rising even though we on days where equity markets were falling uh basically not really creating a lot of great deal confidence for investors for for where to where to park their money uh when while we go through this uh terrier turbulence. So we've seen that also play


out in in the gold market. Uh it has been an almost non-stop rally now for two years. So the market was was long overdue a correction but um but whenever we had a correction these uh these setbacks were relatively shallow basically indicating there is a bit uh in the market uh every time we see a setback. So, so after the um the initial run up to a record high on the tariff announcement based on uh heightened recession and inflation worries, we did run into a a long liquidation phase and that basically highlights uh some of the


what happened in the market as well when we had this uh these spikes in liquidity or in volatility. That basically means we have this dash for cash which basically means that no investment is uh is safe because investors need to reduce their exposure and with gold having been a very popular investment by many we also saw selling in gold but the correction was only 4%. And now within within a week we almost back once again to uh challenging the the record highs simply because we are in a very uncertain world right now. We just have


to look at the white house. We have to look at the changes that happens there on a daily basis. We have to worry about the uh the tariffs impact on global growth. Are we seeing a recession? Is price is going to go up due to tariffs? So are we going to see inflation coming back? The geopolitical tensions not least between the US and China is also playing its part. Central banks um buying uh gold in in uh in record amounts which will which is likely to continue. So and then there's the whole fiscal debt worry. So, um that's a long


answer to a short question, but basically this it's difficult not to to paint a uh positive picture for gold uh for now, and that's why we have this 3,300 uh call. I would ideally like to see a a longer period of consolidation, but uh it just seems like for now we're not really getting it. I think that's a really good answer to the question and gives an idea of your thought process there. So, we've got a look at where you see gold going at the high point for 2025. I wonder if we can talk a little


bit more about how how low gold could go because we know it's got a positive outlook, but I also was seeing some concern among investors when we did have that pullback after the terrorists for people worried a little bit about what was going on there. So, any any thoughts on how how low the downside could be for gold in 2025? Well, I'm just uh looking on my screen as we speak now just to give you uh just to give you some some uh some some exact numbers. basically the the runup we had uh since December


um is is quite an important one. So uh so the but looking at the the the setback um the the first level that you really need to keep a close eye on is 2950. uh that is the the highest local highs we had uh back in February and uh it's really the level where we did find support during the latest uh correction but in but uh I would say we could we could easily oh I would not easily but we could still drop below 2800 and still not worry too much about the the correction being uh signaling an end to


the to the bull run we had. So um so 2950 is my is my big line in the sand but the 2800 could be reached on a if we if we do run into a a significant period of of selling and that's that selling really should has to occur through through a solution to some of the the current issues that we are facing. Tariffs obviously first of all needs to be uh be abandoned. uh we need to see um uh we need to see maybe central banks step in to to support uh the economy uh further with following all the the uh


the kind of crisis atmosphere we've seen among CEOs in recent weeks and that potentially could um could just create a little bit of of of movements back into the equity markets but uh but generally it's it's difficult to see the the the risks but you're absolutely right Charlotte there's nothing ever goes in a straight line so uh well worth just to keep keep some of these levels in mind. But um the first one most certainly 2950. Okay. I think that's that's really helpful as well. Let's look over to


silver. So I know when you're looking at silver, you use the gold silver ratio at least somewhat to give an idea of where it's going. So if this is the outlook for gold, what do you see coming for silver in 2025? Well, I have to start by saying oh boy. Uh because silver is uh silver has just recently done what silver does extremely well. It's basically gold but on steroids meaning that uh when gold tends to rally gold silver tends to follow but uh quite often at a faster pace but the


opposite happens as well when uh when we see a setback and that's what we really went through uh we went through quite a painful and brutal correction in the silver market uh in the last week or so and um basically driven by first of all that we saw we saw correction starting in in gold but secondly the the fact that silver does derive around half of its demand from industrial users. And as the recession fears rose with tariffs going up, then we saw the industrial metal take a hit as well. And and with


with that, there was really not much left in terms of support, at least in the short term, for silver. So we saw a massive clear out of the the books of the positions held by by traders around the world. Not helping that as well was the fact that the in the run-up to these tariff announcement, there've been a lot of buying of uh silver in the New York market simply because the traders in New York in the US wanted to get silver into the US before a potential tariff was introduced and that basically led to a


massive flow of silver coming into the US market. But the uh but the tariff speech on April 2nd basically did not indicated that silver was going to be just like gold was going to be exempt from tariffs and that basically took a lot of that premium out of the the New York market and and then when market start to to sell off uh silver basically uh was was the floodgate opened and the floor disappeared. So we're kind of back to square one. We briefly just returned to uh to the starting point where we


were at the start of the year and that's after we in the meantime had rallied by 16 17%. Uh since then we have seen the market start to recover indicating two several things. first of all that this deleveraging has run its course but also the fact that the industrial metals have started to recover in the in in on speculation that China will have to announce some additional stimulus measures as they are now facing this tariff war with the US. they really have to do more to uh to incentivize domestic


consumption and that potentially could be achieved through adding more stimulus into the economy. That will help uh could help some some of the industrial metals including copper and that's feeding into silver as well. And then I think you just have to remember that silver is still uh 50% also an investment metal. So if gold is in demand on the safe haven on the worries in the world then silver will uh then it will also have a supporting impact on silver. So it's trying to recover right


now that recover process will probably be a bit slower and as we put out in our outlook we basically said that the uh the silver ratio gold silver ratio have been struggling to uh every time we got up to around 92 which is a level of of weakness in silver relative to gold. silver tended we we often saw the silver start to outperform gold with the ratio then coming back down but with the events in the last week or so we seen that ratio shoot high up to 100 and as long as we have the recession fear in


the market then silver is likely to perform not as good as uh as gold thereby reversing a little bit of the our outlook for the year. So, we've had to lower our our forecast for silver from from above 40 to now down to the 37 38 area, but still a uh quite a decent increase from from current levels. Also, because the mining activity is a bit challenged, we're potentially seeing another year of supply deficit, which is also going to help underpin prices once we see this stabilization unfold. So


with silver, as you've been outlined, it it's got its precious side and it's got its industrial side and they're they're about evenly split. So do you see going forward in 2025 silver taking cues kind of equally from from both of those angles? It will most certainly and um and and I think over time if we if we could see the industrial metals stabilize uh which we haven't seen recently with also a big sell off in the in the copper market then then the the focus in the silver


market will will slowly probably focus more on the on the investment side of things and uh and because also one thing is buying gold at a record high level. Another thing is perhaps buying silver which is still quite a bit below the record highs we saw more than a decade ago. One thing that obviously uh speaks a little bit in against silver is the fact that central banks are buying gold. They're not buying silver. So that underlying demand that really has been a very strong uh force uh in terms of demand for gold in


the last 3 years does not uh is not seen in the silver market. So it's much more dependent on on individual investors on on on funds um looking at uh looking at silver as an alternative to gold. So um it may have its its times but uh but with my forecast I'm also looking for the ratio I'm just looking on the screen again the ratio is currently around 102 that that over time could uh move back down below 90 and if that happens then obviously we could we'll see silver outperform quite a bit relative to to


current prices and relative to where gold is. Okay. So, we'll we'll watch that and see how that plays out. I think while we're on the note of precious metals, I wanted to mention ddollarization because it's one of the themes that you bring up in your report that is going to have kind of a long-term impact on commodities as a whole. So, under under the Trump administration, do you see that ddollarization trend speeding up or or what are your thoughts on that? The the thought is that yes, it will. Um


dd dollararization is basically that investors uh and central bank especially try to reduce their dependency on the dollar. They reduce their dependency on on uh dollar-based assets. So US government bonds and there's there's several reasons for that. The most obvious is is uh is the fact that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian central bank had its assets frozen by the west. Um and that really sent a shiver around uh among other other perhaps slightly nonwestly friendly central banks and that really


triggered this massive uh buying spree that we've seen ever since. But I think just also just just some uncertainty related to the fiscal debt situation in the US. We had this uh the famous list truss moment in the UK uh so a while back and where suddenly the market completely lost confidence in the bond market and uh that was really we were getting not we were we've seen the start of that uh early this uh this this week uh not not to the same extent but there was some really really strong warning


signals coming through the bond market that uh things were not well and uh and I think from a from an investor perspective not only central banks but others well you may want to reduce your exposure to the US and I think then also the tariff and that that the trade war the US um Trump's basically want to isolate the US maybe want they basically want to pull away from from many global organizations could indicate that this US exceptionalism that we have grown used to now for the past 10 20 years


which basically means that a lot of investors that moved channelneled their their funds into US investments especially into the tech sector that that part we're seeing part of that starting to reverse simply because US is likely to go for towards a few lower growth because of the tariffs and the and the same time we are we seeing stimulus and new initiatives coming into Europe and for that matter into Asia as well. So we're seeing investors moving the we're seeing some flows moving away


from the US and that will uh support this dullization phase leading to expectation or speculation right now and forecast that the dollar potentially could weaken quite a bit further in the coming months and if it does then obviously you want to be you do not want to be in a dollar asset you want to be in something that benefit from a weaker dollar and that could be gold as well. Yeah, I was definitely going to ask you. I know it's pretty hard to talk about the tariffs right now because so much is


going on and changing really from day to day and even hour to hour, but I was going to ask what you think the end game is there and maybe as you're saying it is for to bring the US into itself a little bit more. So for the other countries, I think we're already starting to see this countries starting to talk about forming new alliances that that don't include the US so that they can make sure that they do have secure supply lines. How do you see that playing out further among these other


countries as they kind of absorb the impact of the tariffs? Well, I can I can hear from your accent that I I kind of guess that you are from a country north of north of the US. Uh tell me if I'm wrong. Um, and I'm coming from Denmark where we've had problems with with Greenland. So, I think the the the whole question that uh that that that suddenly old friends are becoming foes. That is really the uh that I think that's the main damage that potentially could uh could come from this. And uh and it basically also means


that the the terrorists are I can understand the the reason why uh why why Trump wants to uh to to break 20 years of of um of of where the US economy has become more and more relied on on certain sectors where the industrial base has disappeared. But there's there's ways to to go about it uh instead of being an elephant in a China shop and just just basically destroying a relationship that's been built up over decades. But and and that really has created I would say a lot of uh political damage uh in in the in in the


short to medium term and that basically creates these as you mentioned uh maybe alliances uh that makes himself less dependent on on the US. We're seeing that in Europe. we would probably fallen asleep here and and it's probably what has happened I think longer term is very very good for Europe because we we finally been forced to wake up and realize we have to we have to take our own uh destiny in in our hands and uh and and I think that will that will happen in in the coming years but


tariffs ultimately is a tax on the consumer taxes lead to uh lead to higher prices lead to the risk of high inflation and when and when you have tangible assets like commodities that will play its part in supporting commodities. So that so even though we've seen quite a bit of a setback in in commodities down 8% from uh from the from the highs if you look at some of the broad indices we're still up on the year and I think the combination of of several commodities with reasonably tight supply and investors looking for


uh for tangible assets in terms to shield themselves from from the the threat of from rising inflation I think will overall continue to to support commodities. So, so from where the some of these major indices are trading right now, I still see them trade higher at the end of the year. Okay. I think that that makes a lot of sense and you got my accent exactly right. I'm speaking to you from from Vancouver in Canada. So, I also want to take a look at what's going on with copper. So, we've been talking


about these recession concerns that are really, I think, rearing their head a little bit more right now. And copper is known as this bell weather for the economy. So I'm curious about your outlook for copper and whether it does correspond to what is in store for the economy. Copper has been uh to put it mightily crazy uh the last few months uh simply because the market has been trying to to work out what level of uh tariffs would eventually be applied on on imports into the US. And uh that has led just like we


saw in silver and also to a certain extent early on in gold but also platinum that that the futures prices in New York uh basically dislocated completely from the rest of the world. That has led to uh that has during a period of time led to a lot of copper being shipped to the US. We're starting to see that coming in the in the inventory data now. they're starting to to arrive and and that has created this these massive arbitrage opportunities where if you were holding copper within the US you could basically do the


arbitrage in the in the in the futures market selling yourself short the futures and uh wait for the delivery and and then do the do the exercise once again that basically meant that at one point u recently the uh New York copper price was trading at a 15% premium to London um a complete dislocation simply because the market was trying to price in the eventual to level of tariffs and uh again if if that tariff level ended up at 25 just like we've seen for aluminium and steel then then the discount would or the premium would


widen even further. Since then this we we've seen the weakness in the market led to a lot of uh stop-loss selling in the market and the copper premium now is down back down to around 7 or 8% but it's still there and we're still waiting for news on on that. So that's the technical side of things but ultimately commodities they depend on demand and the demand outlook I would say almost no matter what's happening right now will remain strong. The electrification of the world is ongoing. The uh the need


for for copper to uh to supply this electricity is uh is continuing to uh to be will continue to be strong. It's not only a question about the electrical vehicles. It's also data centers. It's cooling in in in countries with hotter climate where the the need for cooling continues to to go up. So generally the electrification will continue to play a a uh you can almost say the electrification demand in copper is the same as uh is supporting copper just like central banks are supporting gold.


And I think with that in mind the the the downside risk in in copper are relatively uh relatively small. But in the short term, we really need to get some more clarification about these uh tariff levels because they are it's just creating some extremely difficult uh market conditions. And what we did say see was was actually the uh which I think was a good thing because we could have seen an even further squeeze was the fact that the market is speculating that this this uh investigation that's


currently ongoing in the US will be uh will be completed sooner than than normally would. These investigations normally can take many months that the fact that it will completed sooner means that well that this transfer of copper from the rest of the world to the US basically has stopped and uh that's good because what could have risk was that a lot of this copper basically leaving the rest of the world got stranded in the US not coming back once these tariff walls were were were put up. So um so it has


left the market less tight than we otherwise feared and that's also why we we've seen some of the setback but but generally the the the outlook for supply for mine supply in the coming years and the outlook for for demand especially towards electrification I with that in mind I'm still I'm still long-term bullish on on copper. If we do get into a run into a period or into a recession then obviously we have to adjust uh price expectations accordingly. But uh again we we do not expect that to last


uh too long and uh and overall these general themes will continue will eventually re reassert themselves and and underpin prices. great overview I think of the copper situation and the comparison of electrification to the central banks for gold I think really helps me understand where to to place that in terms of the copper story. So thank you for going into that and I don't want to keep you too much longer but I've got one more uh sector that I want to cover which is oils. I think that's also important to what's going on


in energy of course. So oil prices they've of course taken a hit like many other things with this tariff news. There's also the OPEC plus news this past week or so that is weighing on prices. So when you look out in 2025 for oil, are we are we looking like we're going to have another tough year? We've also got Trump and his his drill baby drill. I don't know if he's still on that track. Well, most certainly, Charlotte, the compared to the the peace and calm we've seen in the market now for the past two


years, that is most certainly done for for now. And that piece of calm was was really um courtesy of OPEC plus and their production cuts because they basically uh as as demand was softening they cut the supply in order to maintain stable and for the and also relatively high prices and we all know the result of that it invited a lot of nonopic producers into the frey increasing production because of the the price levels were justifying uh such an increase. Now that we we we've we've seen the uh this very dramatic reversal


in the in the past past week or so uh to at one point hitting a four-year low back to basically almost the pandemic crisis period back in 21. Uh we're none of none of us want to relive that. But um but it just highlights that the the the the supply demand structure has changed quite dramatically within a very short period of time. But uh and one once that once once that happened then obviously everyone u analyzing oil markets has to come out with a revise lower their their forecast and I think


probably right now we're seeing forecast that's probably overshooting to the downside because we are already now into with with WTI trading close to uh well we're below 60 at the time we recording this. We are we're into a level where where we into the supply destruction territories from uh some of the high cross producers. it will not play out uh today or tomorrow because a lot of these producers they are forward hedgings part of their production. So they are for now they can live with these these uh these


lower prices. But if we stay anchored here in this low 60s, high50s in Wai for for the in the coming months, then eventually we we will see production uh start to slow in the US especially and probably other places as well. And that will help once again balance the market helping to offset some of the risk related to uh recession but also some of the the production increases that we're seeing from OPEC because OPEC we have to remember that the the increase that they uh they that they announced which was an


acceler acceleration from uh from May and onwards is basically in order to to uh to punish some of the uh the over producers and we and we we can see several things unfold in the coming months from from some of these producers excuse me Take Kazakhstan as an example, produc producing 400,000 barrels more than their their quotota. If they cut that down to to their quot that that will basically mitigate the the increase we're seeing from OPEC uh in Italy. Then we also have the sanctions against


Venezuela and Iran which is probably going to be toughened even further. Uh, one thing we have noted recent is a massive buildup in of military capacity uh, in in the in the in in the Middle East with a lot of assets being moved there and uh, there is a a very firm view on on Iran from the the US administration. So, we potentially could see a production flow from both Iran and Venezuela and that will probably also help more than offset or potentially more than offset the increase we're seeing from some of the other opt. So


all in all, I I'm um I'm struggling a little bit uh getting too bearish on on oil prices at these current levels. We got Brent down to to the low 60s. We had a 65 85 range pencil in for the year, but with the uh with the increase from OPEC, but especially with the worries about recession, that is that has that is now lower to let's say a 60 to 80 range. But I would be um I'll be struggling to see to see prices collapse much further than that simply because it will have a counterproductive impact on


supply and uh and that will eventually help stabilize prices. So um lower than what we've been used to but uh but not falling out of bed. That sounds very reasonable. So thank you for for covering that topic as well. I will let you go unless you had any final thoughts that you would leave investors with. Perhaps let us know where we can find you if we want to. Absolutely. Well, I I think the the past couple of weeks have have told us uh just to stay nimble. Um we can it's it's really difficult to uh to make any any


major long-term uh sort of force card forecasts, but also just keep your if you're actively trading these markets, keep your position to uh to to a level that reflects the new and higher volatility. uh just like the uh the big asset allocators, they do hedge funds, they they they target the volatility and if volatility goes up, they naturally reduce uh the the positions they they they hold simply because of the the bigger swings in the market. So so just be just respect the markets. Um and um


and and on top of that um in terms of where you can find me um as as we said at the top, I work for Saxo Bank. You can find me on on Twitter at oi_s_hansen with an e or you can find our output uh on our website which is analysis.saxo. Uh these are and obviously you can always find me on LinkedIn as well. Okay, very good. I'll leave some links to you in the video description so people will be able to see them. And thank you so much for coming on to go over all these different markets. I really appreciate it. No


problem. My pleasure. Thank you very much. Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investignews.com and this is Phil Hansen with Saxup Bank. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]