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  I'm Charlotte Mloud with investing.com and here today with me is Joe Capatonyi, senior market strategist, America's at the World Gold Council. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> Great to be back, Charlotte. Always a pleasure. >> Yes, really good to be talking with you today. Of course, we have the latest demand trends report to get into. But before we go there, I think we have to talk about what's going on with the gold price. We had quite an active week last

week with the price going past 5,500 per ounce for the first time ever and then staging quite a dramatic pullback. So, I'm wondering if you can walk me through that price action on both ends in terms of what was driving the run up and then that that pullback. Yeah, look, Charlotte, I think the right way to characterize what we've experienced is probably the drama was a little bit around what we were seeing on the rise up. So, you will remember we crossed 3500. It was a moment in the market, 4,000. It was a moment in the

market. But this January 1st to today rise in gold has just been while exceptional and exciting, a little bit aggressive. and a lot a lot of people saying that this feels a little bit more than maybe we were expecting. I think underneath it all is a very good fundamental case for gold and we can unpack all that as we look at the data and our gold demand trends report. But I think that hitting that level of 5,500, yes, very exciting. But look, we were up nearly 30% in the course of one month. We were hitting 12

records for 20 trading days in the US for gold. It's very much driven by a fundamental case, but definitely some speculation, some momentum, and all of those factors. Even the numbers that we saw post Davos, the the the World Economic Forum to 5,500, that was a rise of near 4,900, 5,000 to 5,500. Very aggressive rise. Definitely lots of of of energy around the price, but it's pulling back now. Um, I think what we're seeing are speculators, momentum driven traders, technical analysts, a lot of

different factors at play going into the month end ultimately leading to the the wind coming out of the sales of this very momentum driven activity for gold slowing it down. Now, we've definitely had a pullback. We had one in November of last year as well. But at the end of this, you're looking at a lot of people who were pushing the price higher, speculative in terms of nature, pulling back and taking money off the table. And that's why I think we're seeing a correction in the price. I don't think

that we have an issue with fundamentally what's going on in the gold market. I think that we saw a market that got very aggressive in terms of its price levels and now we're coming back to a 46 4700 level. Great takeaways and I think you addressed already one of the questions I had which is that gold is known for being a safe haven asset for its stability and I think the volatility that we've seen has unnerved people a little bit because of that reputation that it has but so from your perspective

this is because there was some speculative aspects in the market recently. Sure, Charlotte. I think it's important for everyone to understand the volatility of all risk assets, all assets, is higher than we've all really ever experienced in our careers, including gold. Now, shorter term volatilities are even higher. And think about why that is. That's simply because trying to make decisions, trying to gauge all the different factors and signals that are coming at us in today's environment, it's very challenging. So

it's very challenging even in the case of an asset like gold which is a safe haven asset an asset that preserves its value when you have challenges in economic conditions but at the heart of it all you're seeing increased levels of volatility more short-term vol than you are the longer term and actually across the board all risk assets all assets having higher levels of volatility. So yes, maybe it's a little less comfortable for us and the people who are looking at the gold market might say

this is not what I'm accustomed to. But you might need to understand that this is a condition of the political, geopolitical and economic landscape that we're living in on a global scale. This is really kind of new times and you know we've talked in the past about the reset of like how you should be thinking about the world order. This is a moment for us to understand volatility levels are up. It's going to cause for price movement. We talked about that in terms of some of the pieces that we've put out as well.

So, is it alarming? No. Is it something you need to understand and appreciate? Absolutely. Great point. I think it's it's important to remember that that volatility really exists everywhere at this point with everything that's going on in the world. One point I wanted to bring up, one of the narratives I've been seeing around this pullback in the gold price is that it's related to Trump has announced his pick for the new Fed chair. And there seems to be an impression that he could

end up being hawkish versus more in line with Trump wanting lower interest rates. So I wanted to get your take on that development as well. Any any thoughts there that you'd share? >> Yes, I think it's it's a definite factor that's on people's mind, but I don't know if it's us. It's right to simply say that it's the driving factor for this correction. I think it's a contributing factor, but there are many other factors that are contributing as well. Um, I think that when you think

about what the Fed and and how the Fed will act over time, you know, we need information. They need data. We just heard that the Bureau of Labor Statistics today have said they're going to delay the release of critical information that I've been signaling to people, you need to keep an eye on labor statistics. This week, we're going to have those delayed. So, what does that do for everyone's ability to assess what the condition of the US economy is? Delays it. What does it do for the Fed?

Makes it challenging for them. So, I think it could be a factor, but I don't want to put a pin on it to simply say it's the reason for the market to correct. There's a lot of different other factors that are at play here. You have easing tensions in the Middle East. You have geopolitical risks cooling a little bit. So, lots of different things playing out. Global nature in terms of the asset gold. Lots of talk around what's playing out in terms of markets in the east in terms of trading

activities there as well. So wrong to kind of single out one factor, right? To conditions, you know, to see the conditions of what's going on in the market more generally and understand many factors could be impacting what we're seeing right now. >> Right. I know I know there's a temptation to try to nail it down to one thing, but there there really is so much going on right now. And I know I know the World Gold Council doesn't do price predictions, but I think everybody is

wondering right now, all right, what comes next for gold? So any insight you'd share there? I know for me one thing I'm thinking about as we go through these price moves for gold, we're really we're back to where we were a couple of weeks ago, two three weeks ago. So any any insight you'd add? >> Sure. This is going to get back to the fundamentals of what's driving the gold market. Two out of the three scenarios that we lay out in our outlook, which is what we tend to do for people. We give

information, data and insights and then conditions to keep an eye on the economic factors, the labor statistics that are coming out of the government, where interest rates are, the appetite for risk assets, the behavior of risk assets in a moving environment when the Fed's going to move rates. So all of those factors give us a signal that a good and constant growth pattern that will that we've seen for the last two to three years will continue for the gold market into 2026. This setback

definitely is going to bring us back to like you said those levels where we were about 3 or 4 weeks ago, but I think right now we're in line for a positive month of just about 8% for January uh through February 2nd as we record this and and that's much more in line with our expectation. The fundamentals shifting the outlook for gold continuing to be favorable. You might even look at this moment of saying, "Hey, I was worried that I might have missed the momentum in the trade for gold at

5,500." If you're interested in looking at an allocation, this could maybe be a moment for you to take a look and say, "I should look now because I have a price level that's much more palatable. And now I should look at what it would do if I add it with potential growth expectations into my risk portfolio and see how it could set it could help me out in terms of diversification, >> right? I think that could definitely make a lot of sense for many people right now. So, we've got a grasp, I

think, on what's going on in the gold market at the moment. Let's take a look over at the demand trends report, which looks back at Q4 as well as the 2025 year. And some interesting takeaways there. We'll get into each section of the report. But I want to start overall, it looks like demand came to 5,000 tons, more than 5,000 tons for the first time ever. So any surprises or key takeaways at the outset from you? >> I think that's actually sums it up nicely. It was an exciting thing for us

to see not only a tonnage value, a tonnage level that's actually uh record setting, but also a dollar purchasing value. That's exciting. And there's a key a couple key areas in there that I think are really good to delve into. Areas of weakness may have some signals of support and strength. Jewelry, we can talk a little bit about that. But then again, this constant and regular uptake by central banks and investors around the globe really I think overall a the very fantastic year for the gold market.

And if you didn't understand the global nature of gold, I think if you have the opportunity to see this report, read this report, you'll get a real good understanding of why we talk about gold that way. It it it matters in China, it matters in India, it matters in Asia, matters in Europe, the Middle East, the Americas. it it just is really a global asset at heart and I think this report really does amplify that. >> Well, good good initial takeaways and let's get into those segments. I think

central banks is a really good one to touch on. So, sounds like in 2025 high demand, not not record setting as we've seen in other years, but still historically high demand. And I'm wondering what you can say about central bank buying in 2026 because that goes back to what's underpinning the gold story for so many years at this point. >> Yes, I think what's going to play out for central banks in 2026 has been echoed by what we were going to see in 2020 or what we saw in 2025. I think

we're just over 680 tons in terms of overall demand from the central bank community. Again, heavily concentrated amongst emerging market central banks as they look at reserves. they look at their reserve portfolio and think about what they are looking for as it relates to dollars or safe haven assets. This theme is going to continue. I think at this stage the dollar's moving a little bit more and a little bit more in both directions, strengthening and weakening on back of news. So, what we might

continue to see in 26 is a little bit more of what we saw in 25, which is a slower year, not pushing up over that 1,000 level of tons, but a consistent level of ongoing buying from the central bank community. At this kind of price behavior that we're seeing, this is often when we see central banks stepping in and saying, "Hey, this is when I need to take a look at my allocations and my opportunity to go ahead and make a purchase." So I think keep a close watch on what we see monthtomonth in terms of

official reported data from central banks but right now the sentiment continues to be I'm looking for diversification in my reserves and gold seems to be the natural place for them to talk to. >> Well and just a related question here or I think it's related. So we know that China plays a really strong role in the gold market and just over the weekend we've been hearing reports that Xiinping is looking to make the remimi a reserve currency. Meanwhile we have Trump in the US who favors a weaker US dollar. So any

insight on those developments that you would share maybe from a gold perspective? >> Sure. I I think if you're looking at a reserve asset that's liquid and actually is trans uh trans transactional across all different countries, gold's the asset of choice. For the remn to become a reserve asset, lots got to change. There's the full convertability question. There's letting that currency go from the Chinese government perspective. Um not entirely sure how you would achieve it. Um, so I'd say at

this stage the question of the role the dollar plays in reserves is pretty substantial and not looking to be changed in any major way. Even with weakness or strengthening, even how the president's trying to look to manage our economic conditions to impact the dollar strength and weakness. I think gold's going to continue to play a part in reserves. whether the REMMBB can be fully convertible and recognized as an official reserve asset. That's a lot of work and we'll see what happens over the

course of over the next year or or two to make that come to life. Um I don't think that's going to have anything um no impact for us on the immediate term for for for what it's worth. >> Yeah, that one sounds like a real wait and see situation. So, we'll continue watching how that plays out. >> [snorts] >> Let's take a look at gold investment demand in 2025, which I believe hit a new record with ETFs leading the way there. So, uh, what would your what would you pull out there? I'm wondering,

does that signal that we're seeing more mainstream interest in gold at this point? >> 100% it does. I think what most investors in the west are starting to realize is what we saw from the eastern investors in 2024 in the early part of 25 which is diversification risk offset and actual allocations to gold matter and actually it's getting much more attention as people are looking at what and how their risk performance will be and in short I think they're looking at diversification and

the right kind of diversification in their portfolio. So you saw record flows in the US and in North America for for ETFs. We expect to see those numbers continue to be very strong. Actually amongst the ETFs that grew a lot of the lowcost products, the ones that had lower management fees tended to get a bit more AUM growth than we were expecting to see, which signals to us that's a buy and hold or a sticky investor profile. And I think that's going to continue. you know in the ETF space as well you also saw the Asian

markets continue to be a very large contributor to the overall growth of ETFs. So again it's about that Asian market understanding the role of gold and the America's waking up and realizing I need to have a real asset a diversification that I need my portfolio and they're actually speaking loudly not only through ETFs but also in the physical sense in both ends of the market. Well, it's nice to see the West start coming in finally, and I'm sure we'll talk more about how that develops

in 2026. Of course, we want to touch briefly on jewelry as well. I know you've been saying probably for years at this point to me that as the price goes up, jewelry demand lessens. And I have to imagine that's a trend that continues in 2026. But any any key points that you're watching in that arena? very key development that we've noted this report and for the for the for the course of 2025. So tonnage and weighing the the actual demand level in terms of tonnage down for sure. But interestingly enough

at all the major hubs that we track dollar values being spent are actually positive. So what's that's telling us is basically the desire and the interest and the ability to actually continue to accumulate gold is still very strong. So of course at a higher price the smaller amounts of tonnage going through the systems but the amount of money people are spending is up including China including India including the US for example and I just think that's a fascinating statistic for people to

understand. So you might think jewelry is slowing down. You might think interest is fading. Quite the opposite. It's actually still seeing dollars being spent and people at the table. I think the other kind of color I'd share comes from one of my colleagues in China where he talked a little bit about how um recycling isn't as big as it might we might expect it to be over the course of the quarter. And actually what they're seeing more in the Chinese market are exchanges. So people coming in and

exchanging old style jewelry for a new style. So actually keeping gold in their in their in their possession but actually exchanging it for for newer more modern pieces. So that's actually an interesting development as well. And I think what that tells us underneath is that people still see that the price of gold is such that I'm not going to just bring my gold in and just cash it out at at a recycling center or at a pawn shop or anything along those lines. They're actually hanging on to it. As a matter

of fact, they're spending more to accumulate it. So, so there's a willingness still to to want it and hold on and buy at these prices. >> Absolutely. Absolutely. While the tonnage might be down, the dollars being spent, people are speaking very loudly with that to say, "Hey, I'm very much interested." >> Very, very interesting. And we'll track that as well, I'm sure, as the year continues. Let's take a quick look at technology demand for gold as well. I

was going to ask you the same question. Is the higher price impacting technology use of gold? But what would you pull out there that you find of interest? >> I think the technology space is a small component of what drives the gold market. Unlike some of the other precious metals like silver, platinum, palladium, we we have about an 8 to 10% level of of of adoption in in the demand profile and it held steady for for 2025. And I think that that's actually nice for us to remind people of which is

there's no demand fatigue in the tech space even with increased prices even as high as 5500 where they're looking to substitute. The fact that it's staying constant and and and actually not being swapped out tells us that the corner of the market where it's being consumed high-end technology and and growth in that AI type technology that needs you know uh the high level conducting metals they're they're continuing to hold on to gold. They're continuing to spend on gold and they seem a little bit price

insensitive. So, it's good for us to see a steady number over the course of the year. >> And just before I let you go, I want to check in on supply as well. So, people might look at the high price and think that miners are responding with more gold coming out of the mines, but we know that it's pretty difficult for companies to actually ramp up production. So, what do you see coming for supply this coming year? Well, it was a a record mine production year and that only took a 1% increase to get that

done. But simply put, your your point is right. It it doesn't it's not something that can be turned on like a spigot. It actually takes time. It takes it takes effort. It takes production to come online. It's subject still to permitting, which is a big topic around the globe in terms of who can and how quickly you can get permits in place and get new mine sites online. But the fact is the miners are taking advantage of the higher prices. They are moving more production into line. You did see growth

of about 1% and actually it's um it's actually exciting to see that they're continuing to bring markets bring new sites online. Um but overall again it's the size and scope of a market that's going to be managed and and um impacted by other factors other than just the price. They need to bring it to to production. >> Yeah. Yeah. So 1% that 1% is actually a it's a significant amount even though it sounds quite small. >> You're right. I should I should I should

clarify that. You're you're absolutely right. Even though it's just 1% it is meaningful in terms of the overall increase and again it's been a diverse universe of miners that are bringing the gold to market around the globe. >> Yeah. Yeah. Again the global market so important to focus on. I think that gives us a nice idea of what was in the report. But anything final that you would leave investors with? There's so there's so much going on, so many takeaways. >> Sure. I I think I want to make sure

investors, while it's easy to say remain calm, even with the more price moves that we've seen over the last 48 hours, it's important to do so. Again, you highlighted it and most people are realizing it. We're we're not far off where we were a few weeks ago. So that push and that momentum, yes, it took us to a record setting level that we haven't seen ever, but we're actually back where we are likely to see that steady growth and keep close watch on the fundamentals and the factors that

are going to drive the shift, the structural shift for allocations from investors, ongoing central bank demand, and those that are using jewelry, not only in the in the consumer sense, but also in the savings to say, I'm going to continue to spend. So those are the fundamentals that people need to stay focused on. Well, I think those are great words to end on. So, thank you for coming on today to help us sort out what's going in the market. This was great. >> Thanks very much, Charlotte.

>> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Joe Capaton with the World Gold Council. Thank you for watching. [music] If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.