We're probably not going to get back into a positive situation with uh silver supplies until the 2030s. It takes a really high, you know, the cure for high prices is high prices because it'll bring more to market except to find a discovery to turn it into a mine and to to get that ore above ground and and refined into bars takes 5 to 10 years. [music] There just isn't enough. There's not going to be enough for at at least until the end of this decade and that means super high prices. Once this


exceeds the 2011 high and this cup and handle fulfills, uh, then we've got some real fireworks again. So, the fireworks haven't even started yet. We've only lit the fuse. Hey everyone, it's Mike and Allan once again with the Gold Silver Show and Silver has been doing some amazing things lately. Allan, why don't you take us through your presentation here? >> Absolutely. Thank you, Mike. So, yes, as we sit down right now and record this, silver is at 58 almost $59 and anyone


who's ever bought silver is now in profit nominally measured in dollars. Uh, so yeah, so people want to know, is it time to take profits? Should I sell? Is the rally over? Uh, and I think if you sit through this video, you will discover, no, absolutely not. The rally is just getting started. So, anything you want to say, Mike, before I dive into the charts? >> No. Everybody wants to know, is it too late? Because you know what is sad is, uh, when you read in the comments, uh, and when you do some research, you find


that at local coin shops, there's a lot of people that are selling. And when that is done, and it will be done sometime soon, first of all, they're going to regret it. But second of all, without the people selling, it will explode. And just wait until gold also gets into all-time highs again. Once gold and silver are both in all-time highs, I think silver is going to turn into a rocket ship. >> Yeah, I agree completely. And speaking of, that leads into our first chart, which comes from Rashad Hajiev. And he


says, "The breakout in silver that happened a few days ago could potentially take silver to his $85 price target in a matter of 3 to four weeks." There's all kinds of rocket ship predictions like this. This is just one of them, but you can see this breakout that he's signaling. This is the beginning of a new era. It's not it's not the end of of the traditional one. So, >> yeah, rockets. >> A couple things I want to point out. First of all, this is from the end of


last month, but uh take a look at the little cup and handle there, >> right? So, we've made a cup and handle that we've broken. And then there's a bigger cup and handle that goes from 2011 uh that we we broke a while ago. And then there's the 45-year cup and handle that goes back to 1980 that I'm I'm pretty sure I was the first one to identify, but uh and we've broken out on that one as well. So these patterns um if if you look at how they fulfill uh it there it's a powerful pattern and the


one that's 45 years old there is a lot of upside technically if if you're a technical analyst uh you're coming up with silver prices that are rather breathtaking. So uh he's got a target of $85 in a matter of three to four weeks. It could even be higher than that. We I don't know. But uh in one of our last videos or a video that I did, I guess maybe it was a video that both of us did. I I compared the bull market of the 70s and showed how it went up and then it broke out right at the end of


November just you know it it went up, it paused and then it broke out at the end of November and then that increase showed that we should be in tripledigit silver. And I suggested maybe what we need to do is just move the decimal play point one place to the right. [laughter] >> Yeah, I like that a lot. And some of our viewers did as well in the comment section. That that was awesome. Um yeah, and our first comment here on this particular tweet says, you know, $85 is too low. Try a h 100red and then towards


200. The game is up and the bullion banks are going to be irrelevant. Real price discovery awaits. So true. I like that one as well. >> Yeah. >> So another one here. Gold Silver HQ says, "We are witnessing the destruction of a rigged market in real time. What a time to be alive and to be a silver stacker as well." >> Yeah. Now, this one uh is zoomed way out going back into the 60s. And what you see here is you can't even see the little cup and handle that we just


completed because this is probably this is monthly data, not uh I believe. >> Yeah. He said he actually used a threemonth uh line chart for this. So three-month data point unusual quarterly. Yeah. >> Uh that's the reason it's showing the 1980 high at uh 20. What is that? 26 bucks. >> 26 maybe 28 something like that but way way below 50. >> Right. Right. But look at the 45-year cup and handle that we have broken. We've broken it on a yearly, a quarterly, a monthly, all ways of


measuring this. We well maybe not the yearly yet but this is a quarterly if he's using three month and we are off to the races. Okay. >> Absolutely we are. So yes but what if we adjusted for CPI? What does it look like? Well it looks like this. Silver finally breaking out above 45 years of resistance when adjusted for the CPI. Kaboom. >> Kaboom is right. I just want to point out how inexpensive silver is. uh when you when you do this when you adjust it for CPI look at how high that 1980 peak


is compared to where we are today and that is adjusted for the CP lie. Uh we we know that the way they calculate the CPI is a lie. Uh they were trying to modify the original version that ran from the end of World War II until 1982. uh and the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Uh but uh the fact that this is broken out and then look at the inflation adjusted cup and handle again the 45 year cup and handle uh once this exceeds the 2011 high and this cup and handle fulfills uh then we've got some


real fireworks again. So, the fireworks haven't even started yet. We've only lit the fuse. >> Yeah, exactly. So, to answer people's question, should I sell or not? I personally cannot even imagine selling right now. What would you go into? This is the best possible investment in my mind. So, >> Exactly. I mean, it is about to to just do some spectacular things in a very short period of time. >> Yeah, exactly. I'm excited. So, before we go any further, I want to inform


everyone or remind everyone who doesn't know that I'm going to be hosting a live Q&A on Zoom Tuesday, December 9th from 12:00 to 1:00 p.m. Eastern. So, if you have any questions you want to ask me in person, that is your chance to do it. It should be really fun. It'll be just like talking at a conference, but it'll be over Zoom. So, that should be really fun. >> Yeah, it should be. >> So, awesome. So, hope to see you guys there. You can register at golds.comaskalen.


goldsilver.comaskalen. All right, moving on. So, Alistair Mloud says, "I think the paper game is being fractured through silver and then gold. We'll look back on these events and say they marked the beginning of the decline in the entire derivative business." Wow. >> You know, Alistister Mloud is somebody that I've got great respect for. He's a wonderful analyst. He's a a great writer and uh he's dedicated his entire life to this uh you know he's been he's one of


the people that has been in it for years and years and years. So um I you know he might go back further than I do in this. There are so many Johnny come latelys now that have just jumped on this because it's it's really getting going and ramp ramping up. But uh Alistister is somebody that has seen it all. And so I think that he is right here that uh you know it might be the not be the entire derivatives business because Wall Street is always going to try and game the system and change everything into a


fractional reserve scheme. So >> exactly I mean that is the derivative business. [laughter] The derivative business is pretending you have something you don't and then betting on it. So, >> right, pretending there's more chairs, you know, it's it's musical chairs. There's really only one. They create 45 and they get us all dancing on the deck of the Titanic. >> Yeah. Not Not pretty. So, I think that when the market breaks, the price is going to explode. I I again, I cannot


imagine selling right now. Now's the time for me to be buying silver. So yes, uh, smart smart stacker, that's a mouthful, says the gold to silver ratio continues to drop like a stone. Silver's time has come. And look at this, he's got a wedge formation and the gold silver ratio is dropping through, which of course means that silver has been outperforming gold lately over this period, >> right? And it's in the 70s right now, I believe. And you know, it was in the I made some uh large purchases during


COVID when it was up. Uh they were I didn't nail 120 to one. Uh but I I did get some that were way over 100, like 110. Uh however, at 70, silver is still an extreme bargain at 70. It went to 30 in 2011. It went to 14 in 1980 and that day is coming again. But with the fundamentals underneath what's happening in silver, I I would expect that we could go down way below uh 14 as far as the ratio. Yeah. >> Yeah. Well, you asked me to put together this chart specifically for this video.


Um I think it turned out great. This was actually a lot of fun to make. I think it turned out beautifully. Um, but yeah, basically you were just saying the gold silver ratio is around 73 right now as of a day or two ago. And by the way, before I go any further, I should say that this entire chart is upside down. >> Yes, I had you invert it so that uh it show when silver is outperforming gold, this ratio is going up, not down. But you can also do the silver gold ratio. But then the uh scales on the side are


in 0 something or 0.0 something and our brains just don't work as well that way. I wanted it in whole numbers and so the gold silver ratio provides that and uh and this also you know so whenever it's going up silver is outperforming gold but look at where it was in 2011 where it was in uh 1980 and uh then [clears throat] look at how undervalued it's been since 19 from 1990 until today. It is still ex an extreme bargain. It is dirt cheap. Now look at what the average was. That that red line


going through all through the7s. That red line the the 2011 peak. It only visited what was compar what was considered fair value against gold all through the 70s. that was like the natural balance of the gold silver ratio was about 30 and that's what it hit. it it's um it wasn't [clears throat] there was an intraday I think where it hit 30 not 31.7 uh so this must be end of day or maybe yeah it's not weekly uh it's end of day um and uh 14 in um uh 1980 uh so from where it is right now it's


saying that it should outperform gold easily it'll outperform perform gold 2.3 times and it could outperform gold by more than 5.2 times and gold is still I believe a minimum of a double in dollars and so you take this 5.2 times times two you know 10.4 four times and that is the minimum but the gold silver ratio could easily bl I mean [clears throat] when it hit 14 there was a huge strategic stockpile of silver uh that the US had they've sold it all off the the above ground stocks were far larger than they


are today far far larger uh today we are in a situation and you didn't have, you know, derivatives trading was very new. You didn't have uh hundreds of ounces of paper contracts for each ounce of real deliverable silver. The potential to blast past that uh 1980 peak of 14 exists. So, if you're at 73 and it goes to 10, you got 7.3 times the return on silver that you would get at gold. and gold uh doubling that I mean the potential here for silver is just enormous. I couldn't agree more.


Absolutely. And speaking of the above ground stock piles, um you shared with me this table which I believe comes from the silver institute showing the silver supply and demand year-over-year. And this table is really busy and noisy and I don't expect people to look at it for very long. So let me just point out something very quickly. The market balance basically the amount of new silver supply minus the demand is a small positive number typically for five years in a row and then it became a


fairly large negative number for five years in a row. So we used to accumulate more silver around the world you know basically dig up more than we used in industry or investment and now that trend is reversing. So now the trend is going negative where basically demand is outstripping supply. >> If this thing went back uh to you know another five or 10 years you would see that uh going that silver's big move from uh the fours into the 20s uh occurred while there was a silver deficit like there's been for the last


five years. Then uh when it hit uh 48 bucks in uh 2011, that spike, a whole bunch of people went out looking for silver. Takes a minimum of five years to get into production. And that's the reason you're seeing these small positive numbers. We had a deficit. the deficit went away, but it there's this this delay that and that delay is good because now it's saying that we're probably not going to get back into a positive situation with silver supplies until the 2030s. It takes a really high,


you know, the cure for high prices is high prices because it'll bring more to market. Except to find a discovery to turn it into a mine and to to get that ore above ground and and refined into bars takes 5 to 10 years. There just isn't enough. There's not going to be enough for at at least until the end of this decade. And that means super high prices when you go to that market balance less exchange traded products that's seven years of deficit. >> So yeah >> exactly that's what I was going to show.


So now let's look at these numbers in a chart format. It's much easier on the eyes. >> Yeah. >> So so let's see what it looks like. And basically we can see I'll explain this in a moment but what we can see is that the amount of silver available has been shrinking for the last seven years. That's the key takeaway here. So what are we looking at? The dark gray is the market balance. So above the zero line, you can see small positive numbers in dark gray for five years. And then those


dark gray bars go negative and they start getting bigger and bigger and bigger. So basically, we're running out of silver. >> The dark gray market balance is supply versus versus minus demand. >> Exactly. >> Okay. >> Then we factor in the light gray bars, which is the net investment in ETPs. Those are exchangeraded products. So basically, if some of the silver that we're mining goes into exchangeraded products like ETFs, then it's effectively coming off the market,


right? It can't be used for anything else. So we can see those light gray flows sort of added in with the dark gray flows and the net effect when we combine them is the red hashes here, these these red bars, >> right? So I want to point out for people in 2020 uh the red line is a little bit above the bottom of the light gray line and that difference there is exactly equal to the dark gray line above. So you're it's the ETBPS and then you've sort of subtracted what we've this what the surplus actually was


in the market balance. Right. >> Yeah. Exactly. I think the red line isn't at the bottom. >> Yep. Correct. >> Okay. >> And so the net effect here, the way we interpret this is if we look at the red line, we see the red line is above zero three years in a row. So we were sort of adding more silver to the world and then the red line is below zero quite substantially for seven years in a row. So that silver is disappearing. So the available stockpile is dwindling. We're


basically running out of silver year after year for seven years. >> Yeah. And this is just a measurement of each year. And what I find interesting is that the market bal you can see from the last table the market balance went negative in 2021. The market balance uh with the ETPs included went negative in 2019. So 5 years for the supply demand 7 years when you include investors. >> Exactly. And so let's see what it looks like when we take all of these years in red and look at it cumulatively. How


does it add up one year after the next? And we can do that in a waterfall chart that looks like this. So, we have those initial bars above zero that keep adding one after another, adding to the previous one. And then we get those seven years of dwindling balances. You can see that it falls below zero fairly quickly and it goes further and further negative for the remaining 6 years. And the cumulative effect is that there's,00 million ounces or 1.1 billion ounces of silver that we've reduced from the


available stockpile over the last seven years. So >> yeah, >> it's dwindling. It's dwindling. >> And I want to point out to the viewers that uh if this chart started in 2019, uh that bar right there would would start the top of it would be at the zero line. The only reason it's above cuz that year is a downyear. Uh the line that connects the any of the two bars is the close of one year and the opening of the next year. And so if you if if the data started in 2019, everything would


be below the zero line. And that would place uh 2025 uh down um at and 2025 isn't over with yet. That was a projection uh that we saw and the demand has increased. [clears throat] By the time they've got the final data, 2025 is going to be a much larger deficit because of all the investment demand that is happening right now. Those projections are always like a few months a month or two behind. So they made those projections before the rush that is happening right now before silver broke into all-time highs.


If if you started this in 2019, it would almost be 1.2 billion ounces of deficit cumulatively. Uh but when you add the rush, it's probably going to be more. >> Exactly. And you don't have to be an economist to know that when you have shrinking supply and increasing demand, the thing that has to move is price and it goes up. So that's what we're going to see. So eventually you're going to run out of silver and you won't be able to get it. That's why we call it unoptanium. And these are the five


stages of silver. Undermined, undervalued, unchained, unstoppable, and then unobtanium in progress. >> And I have to add a sixth one there. After it becomes un unoptanium, it becomes unaffordium because nobody will be able to buy it. That is when once you can't get any, that's when uh the paper contracts diverge from the physical and physical just absolutely explodes and goes through the roof. I want to thank everybody for watching. Alan, thank you for this presentation. Yes. Thanks,


Mike. Thanks, everyone.