hey everyone welcome to bald guy money as some of you know I have been buying gold and silver for about 15 years now and I often get the questions has it been worth it and have you made any money on it with many people starting to purchase medals for the first time right now I wanted to answer the following questions as they pertain to Gold stacking as always using math and data and they are number one how do you calculate price increases for people who buy regularly number two has gold really beaten


inflation over the last 15 years and finally what if I buy only the price tops or only the price bottoms what would be the difference in profit and performance and just before I get into it I want to let everybody know that I will be sharing the data analysis and all the calculations in Excel format on my patreon and if you're interested in joining that the link to join is in the description as well as the pinned comment and I also kindly ask you to please leave a like for this video to let YouTube know that you think this


kind of content is valuable and that other people should see it so as I said earlier I have been stacking gold and silver for about 15 years now and in that time I have seen a lot but probably the most significant event I've witnessed during my time stacking was the 2011 blow-off top when the price of gold reached 1897 per troy ounce a crazy event triggered by quite frankly a lot of the things that are getting people into gold and silver right now the Federal Reserve was printing money as if our lives


depended on it and the economy was languishing as we had just gone through one of the worst banking crises the world had seen and Loans were becoming harder and harder to come by and since that happened I have heard countless people say to me that gold has done nothing since then and they usually like to pull up this totally cherry-picked data of gold versus the S P 500 to tell me that gold sucks and if you're just getting into gold right now somebody in your life may be trying to discourage you from buying it


using these very same arguments but I can say from personal experience that I don't let stuff like this discourage me and that's not to say that I don't own stocks that are listed on the S P 500 I do but this way of looking at things is something only amateur investors do because if we compare the major gold performance statistics of 2011 a year which was an anomaly as I said with an unusual blow off top and we compare those numbers versus 2023 as a starting point to examine gold performance you'll see that gold is


outperforming on every metric we opened 30 percent higher this year than in 2011. our low is 38 percent higher than the low of 2011. and although we're still below the all-time high closing price for gold this year's high is still seven percent higher than that of the blow off top high but the real bit of data that blows the gold sucks argument out of the water is this and this is why anyone who is worth their salt on YouTube will say practice a dollar cost average strategy when purchasing gold


because if you bought one ounce of gold every year at the average price you would be up in dollar terms by 39 percent and we'll get to inflation-adjusted data in a moment but if you bought only at the high closing price every year over those 15 years you would still be up nominally 23 percent and if you were lucky enough to buy the low price every year you would be up 55 in dollar terms today by the way let me know in the comments right now if you want me to do this same analysis for silver too if enough people


request it I will do it so coming back to gold all in all it's not bad for something that many sophisticated investors would call a loser it's also not incredible when compared to the S P 500 but we're not buying gold to get rich this is how we save this is protection for the future for when things get ugly as I have demonstrated in other videos so when we adjust versus official U.S inflation numbers which is just above 40 percent since 2009 which we really know is more in reality but for the sake of


this video and for me to provide sourced data I am using the official numbers if we calculate for every dollar invested in this one ounce per year at the average cost of gold scenario that I'm trying to show you right now versus the inflation rate since that one dollar was invested you will see here that your actual cost basis goes up from almost twenty two thousand dollars to just above twenty six thousand dollars but you've still beaten inflation with a return on investment of 14 in fact even when you look at the


scenario where we bought one ounce at the high price every year over the last 15 years you have still beaten inflation by one percent and in the scenario where we hit the low price every year you've beaten inflation by a pretty solid 28 in that scenario so coming back to the questions we said we would answer at the start of the video how do you calculate price increases for people who buy gold regularly well I've just shown you how to do it and it doesn't involve picking two data points


and comparing them to unrelated data points like in the S P 500 example you have to look at the long term and factor in inflation from the moment the dollar was earned or spent not a flat rate for the entire period starting from when you made the first purchase that doesn't cut it in order to make a proper calculation next has gold beaten inflation over the last 15 years well the answer is yes even in the scenario where we bought the highest price of gold every year we beat the official inflation numbers so


factoring in slightly higher numbers to reflect inflation reality I think and I repeat that gold beats inflation and by the way I've demonstrated this in many other videos as well as one of my shorts that I've done so if you're curious to see what that looks like you can go back and watch that as well but coming now to the last question that we said we were going to answer what if you time your purchases really badly and what if you time them really well in both scenarios you're still coming out


ahead when buying the tops obviously less so than buying the bottoms and that's where the message for this video comes in because I am getting a lot of comments like this one from viewer and subscriber Mitchell Albrecht saying that he thinks gold could reach 2 500 per ounce in the next six months and to be fair I think if we crack the 2100 per ounce Mark that is very possible as we'll be entering new territory for gold but I want you all to remember that we are currently in a price run-up and I've


seen this before people are getting excited saying that gold is going to the moon and putting every available Penny they have into gold and who knows it may be going to the Moon right now but based on my experience on our way there we will see some pretty big pullbacks in the price as we make our way to higher price levels in times like this I may take short pauses in purchasing but I ultimately stick to a loose purchasing schedule because my objective is to purchase the average price of gold over


time and I think I've made the benefits of that very clear in this video in fact very often I will wait for the bigger pullbacks which usually puts my annual price purchase average below the annual closing average price which is a big benefit to me personally when calculating my return on investment and considering the fact that I've made my last two big purchases around the one thousand seven hundred dollar level as well as the one thousand eight hundred thirty four dollar per ounce level I


think my record for purchasing speaks for itself but again that doesn't mean that I am not buying gold right now I am just being careful about what I buy and that is why I want to show you all this let's get it there this is my latest purchase a 1 10 ounce gold American Eagle Coin and I have to say it is an amazingly beautiful coin this is the very coin people will tell you not to buy because of the premiums and I would say generally that they're right to say that I would never go out


and buy 10 of these in one shot I would prefer of course for example to buy one of these a whole one ounce coin because I know I'm getting more bang for my buck when I buy this versus buying this but in times like these as the price runs up quickly I buy things like this to make sure I am protected just in case this is the next run up that brings gold to the next level kind of like the run-up that we saw happen between 2000 and 2010 when the price of gold did a 5X and if it's not that time right now then


I've still added a little bit of gold to my stack without spending too much money to make the biggest the bigger purchases I should say the next time we see a significant pullback on the price of gold and that's why looking at the data I presented in this video is important in understanding the behavior of gold and developing a purchasing strategy that works for you without having to do Financial gymnastics in order to make it make ends meet just to pay your bills again if you want access to all the data


that I've presented in this video plus all of my stacking tools and extra videos that I post on my patreon you can get it all in the link that is in the description of this video as well as the pinned comment supporting me on patreon helps keep this YouTube channel sponsor free I just like to let everybody know that and before I sign off I just want to say to everybody out there celebrating Easter I wish you a happy and peaceful Easter I hope that you spend a lovely time with your family and


with your loved ones I will be doing that personally here home with my family and until the next time we see each other everybody take care of yourselves take care of each other goodbye