gold news

 are you guys not freaking out about this stuff because I'm freaking out I can't believe how much debt they're building up and they're obviously just going to go until it can't go any further and they'll just let the system blow up by all intents of purposes any way you look at it right now this stock market is heavily overvalued I'd have thought that what might be best for you is if I did a whole overview of my economic thoughts where I think things are going and why

we'll talk about every aspect of the economy unemployment real estate cryptocurrency is everything and at the end of the video just for subscribers of the Peter leads newsletter I got a special message for you but we'll put that to the End plus I want to tell you something about my up thinking book so let's get into it I'll show you a visual look at all of my outlook for a lot of economic Trends and tides that we're going to be dealing with in the near term and if you want us to keep an eye

on all the stuff for you please subscribe to the channel it really helps us a lot encourages myself and my team look at the last three reads for the GDP for United States I've been telling you that we're coming closer and closer to a recession this is what I talked about a bit in the last video quarter 3 last year 4.9% growth quarter 4 3.4% and then quarter 1 of this year just released recently was a surprising Miss at only 1.6% growth so 4.9 to 3.4 to 1.6 if it fell that much again we would be in

recessionary territory right now and you can see that the trend of the GDP getting lower and lower it's it's actually pretty steep and I always tell you guys you know this that it's about the speed or the slope of the trend we're falling quickly hopefully we'll turn things around and get back on track but a lot of the growth we have seen even though it's still coming down so aggressively has to do with a lot of government employees and military spending all of which adds to GDP

overall the federal government is the largest employer in the United States as of September 2023 approximately 2.95 million individuals were part of the US Federal workfor that's millions of jobs that I bet could just be eliminated but hey that's just me but here's a chart from Trading economics of GDP and you can see that there was a technical recession right there and then another technical recession there no unemployment I expect to increase quite a lot a lot of the layoffs that you've been hearing so much

about lately are going to eventually absorb into the numbers and then when they get reported that's when you're going to notice wow unemployment is rising it was just like when gold prices higher but the gold mining stocks hadn't moved you wait till it absorbs through and they release their quarterly financials which they do every 3 months but sometimes it'll be four or four and a half months later that they release the results based on the price of gold now and now they're making so much more

money the same thing with unemployment there's going to be a lot of firings and then it does not actually show up in the numbers for months and months you with stocks you guys know that I've said many times that I do not trust this Market at all and I told you that yes they can make stocks go to the Moon through monetary creation a lot of tricks that they play just like they can make your house value increase but they're doing it through de basing of the currency you'll have a house it'll double in price but you're

not wealthier you just have a house that's worth more dollars but it's not actually worth more it's worth the exact same but you feel like well I've done so good on my house it's doubled in price of course some real estate and increase in value because of developing area or whatever reason but overall unbalance host prices will be equivalent to the debasement of the currency because there's always going to be a whole bunch of houses whole bunch of people that want to live in them but what I wrote in

my script about the stock market right now is overcorrection after normalization you've heard about reverting to mean Investments are always trying to revert to the mean where they're typically trading at if they're above that they're most likely being pulled lower and if they're below that they're most likely being pulled higher always trying to revert to mean what I said was an overcorrection Beyond normalization it's trying to normalize it's going to go beyond that it's going

to be reverting beyond mean I tell you that it's like a pendulum when stocks go one way they go too far that way then they come back the other way and they go too far that way but we're always in a status of moving towards healthier levels and the levels right now are not healthy they're overvalued so much that's why I did that video video recently about talking about the articles about the bizarrely overvalued stock market that's why I showed you the cape ratio that's why we talked about

the Q ratio that's why we talked about historical PE Levels by all intents of purposes any way you look at it right now the stock market is heavily overvalued and every analysis metric implies significant unsustainable overvaluation and as you're seeing with cryptos they are behaving more like a risk on asset so when things like Google and Tesla are dropping in price often so to our cryptocurrencies they're not trading in the ways that something like gold is trading and as they will behave

like a risk asset then they're vulnerable to things such as if there was a stock market draw down sometimes that can engender or cause margin calls where you're forced to sell shares of the stocks that you own and sometimes people need money in that case and in which case they might sell other assets they have which may include cryptocurrencies I always tell that Bitcoin is not going away anywhere in our lifetimes it'll be around forever and will it go higher in price maybe we go lower on price maybe I don't

know I'm not making any statement about it except that if the overall economy gets weaker such as in recession or the overall stock market gets weaker those are both risk points that you have to be considerate of and you know that I've got a very negative look on real estate and it is only just now beginning to start turning the corner and falling a little bit lower but it's got a long way to go lower we're not even halfway through inning one of what's going to happen to real estate in my opinion and

I should say that these are educated opinions I know what I'm talking about I've done pretty well with a lot of my thesis and my premises and this is just some more of what I'm thinking is going to be happening you guys know I've been around for multiple decades we're well into our third decade running this company doing exactly this taking all factors into account such as macroeconomic events the pressure is pushing shares of stocks higher what's pulling them lower we talk about all

that it's educated opinions and I've been doing this now for nearly 30 years doing exactly this in oil my position has not changed since I recently put out that oil Spike and fade video so if you haven't seen it please check it out because that's exactly how oil is going to trade and that's exactly how oil has been trading since I released that video there's pressures pulling oil lower mainly the slowing of the global economy a lot of major Nations top level nations are in recession right now Japan United

Kingdom soon to be America none of that's going to be bullish for oil but at the same time there are so many Monumental macroeconomic events going on right now with global conflicts military conflicts that I believe there will always be these spikes in oil prices significant spikes and then it will slowly drift lower Spike drift Spike drift that's what I'm expecting with interest rates there's so much confusion I've even changed my mind a few times I was expecting that there be an interest

rate decrease through the late summer the reason I believe that is because it'll make it a lot easier for the federal government to pay their debts that they owe not that they seem to care at all about debt apparently I was mistaken to think that any when ever has to pay back debt are you guys not freaking out about this stuff because I'm freaking out I can't believe how much debt they're building up and they're obviously just going to go until it can't go any further and they'll just

let the system blow up they reinvent the system will go to digital currency all this is going to happen we're going to have a big reset I know because that's the only way to get out of this massive overspending massive dead bomb that we built up that's on all of our shoulders but this dead bomb is going to become a fact a lot sooner than most people believe in my opinion I don't think that we have 10 years not even close and if you don't believe me just look at the trajectory of the trends map

it out on a piece of paper you tell me if we could ever afford to pay that debt back it's a known thing that's why they have unfunded liabilities they just divide that out and say well we owe that money but we can't pay it so we'll let's put it in another thing we'll call out unfunded liabilities so it doesn't count against the national debt you in an election year I don't see them keeping rates High even if they should I believe that they will have to at least lower

the rates at least a little bit throughout the late Summer and the fall up to the election but as you guys know whenever they start lowering rates as history has screamed at us when they start lowering rates that's a lot of the time that the recession gets set off at that point it's all coming together with the declining GDP with they're going to be lowering rates it's all going to happen at once and we're we're going to have the recession starting as rates start coming down

which is opposite to what almost everybody believes or thinks especially retail investors so when somebody's so offside or everyone's so offside like that there is an opportunity therefore you take advantage of I told you there was more millionaires made in the Great Depression than any other time in human history except for China but the way to take advantage of a lot of things that are going on right now there's always a bull marker there's always great Investments especially the

ones we talk about the low PRC Investments and I'll tell you about what's going on with the Peter leed's newsletter in just a second but I want to say something about my book up thinkinking I've begun a revised edition of it it's coming along pretty well and about the Peter leed's newsletter I want to tell you guys that you might have noticed that rather than doing just swing trades on the weekend I'm rolling it into a few other things so what I'm going to do is I'm going to give you

opportunities that I see when the markets are closed because it makes it a lot easier to do the analysis when nothing's moving around want you're trying to work and throughout the week of course you'll get The Hot List pick plus you're going to get my personal portfolio question and answer updates on former picks and if you want us to keep an eye on all the stuff for you please subscribe to the channel it really helps us a lot encourages myself and my team if you want some of our free learning

tools or you want to see why the Peter Lees newsletter is one of the most popular Financial newsletters of all time swing over to Peter leads.com and you can learn all about it