Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And we start this video from the US national debt, which has grown a whopping 99% over the last 10 years and is increasingly under the microscope of investors who simply do not believe the United States can pay it back without printing up the cash to do so. Now, at the same time, we're seeing national debts around the world balloon much in the same way as in the United States, with total government debts now close to $110 trillion when you account for


increases since this image was updated. Meaning the total global debt has increased by more than 80% over the past 10 years, showing the real international nature of this unsustainable debt problem. And this has got a lot of people doing different thought exercises like the one you see on the screen here, suggesting easy solutions to extremely complicated problems which are only getting bigger with each passing day and have major implications on gold and silver prices. Because as you can clearly see here in the data on the


screen, it's unlikely that any revaluation of gold will ever fully satisfy the US government's appetite for spending as the needed price for an ounce of gold for the country's 261 million troy ounces in reserves to offset the national debt has gone from nearly $12,000 an ounce in 1990 to more than $140,000 per troy ounce today with the largest increase happening from 200 05 to 2010 driven by the global financial crisis suggesting there will never be a 100% clean slate for US debt or other


sovereign national debts for that matter and no end to rising precious metals prices which is exactly what I want to discuss in this video starting with what would really happen if the United States revalued gold to $141,000 per ounce in an attempt to wipe out the country's national debt as well as what we may expect gold and silver prices to be if they continue to grow at the same speed relative to US and sovereign national debt growth around the world with figures going out to 2030. But just before we dive in, please


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video description below. So jumping in, the revaluation of gold to $141,000 per Troy ounce. What does it mean? and what would the real value of gold be in today's dollars if this revaluation was to happen? And that's the real thing you have to consider if you're an advocate of this or a believer that it will happen. Now, there are many variables that go into predicting what could happen as a result of this. But the first thing we need to recognize is that it doesn't just solve the world's


debt problems overnight. Because for such an action, there would be an equal and opposite reaction. in the famous words of Isaac Newton. And instead of getting unnecessarily complicated about the different scenarios, I think it's best to focus on these two possibilities. The first being the rest of the world laughs at this and recognizes the revaluation of American gold for what it really would be, which is a default on US debt. Or they see it as an opportunity to erase some or all of their debt too and choose to


participate in it. Now the first scenario is easy to explain and as we start what you have to remember is that fiat currencies like the US dollar are basically debt and the collateral that the United States has put up against the dollar or to back the dollar up is their promise that it's worth something and that they'll manage the dollar responsibly moving forward. So if suddenly they revalue gold up versus the dollar, remembering our Isaac Newton quote from a moment ago, in reality, they are just doing the opposite and


revaluing the dollar down versus the current price of gold and every other currency, mind you, in the world that already has an established trading price versus gold today. And that revaluation, as I've spoken about in past videos, is equal to settling existing US debt at roughly 2 cents on the dollar or at a 98% discount versus what they currently owe. Meaning that promise that is backing up the US dollar today would be broken and as a consequence, the entire world would dump the dollar and replace


it with another functioning fiat currency. As silly as that sounds, but historically speaking, that is what happens. And yes, it would cause a lot of pain because of how important the US dollar is today. But there would be no shortage of candidates stepping up to fill the hole left by the US dollar with the two clearest ones being China potentially along with BRICS nations and the European Union. And that would trigger a frenzy as people scramble to move out of the US dollar and into hard assets into stocks and into even other


currencies which would be the real driver that would send the value of gold up. And if we assume it happens at twice the rate of what we saw from 2007 to 2011 when the global financial system looked like it was going to collapse, assuming the current price is somewhere between 3,000 and $3,500 an ounce, that would mean we could expect the price of gold measured in the value of US today to go up nearly five times, bringing an ounce of gold to between $14,400 an ounce to $16,600 an ounce, pricing most people


out of gold forever. And that would undoubtedly trigger a speculative frenzy in silver, which if we use the same assumptions as we did for gold a moment ago, would result in an ounce of silver increasing in value again as measured in today's dollar value by more than 600%, bringing it to a new range of $216 per ounce to $252 per ounce. while leaving the actual dollars, the paper dollars that people hold either in their wallets or in their bank accounts completely valueless, which is precisely why this revaluation


doesn't make much sense. Unless of course you can get everyone to agree to it, which is the second scenario and helps every country get out of debt and delivers on the idea of a monetary reset with a couple catches of course because as I said before, this is not revaluing gold up. This is revaluing fiat currency and debt down. And such a revaluation gives governments around the world the green light to print the cash needed to settle their debts, which in the case of the United States is $37 trillion and


roughly $18 trillion total worldwide. Now using the US example as the basis for our assumption that would result in an M2 money supply expansion of 176% which according to estimates is similar to the 200% money supply expansion in VHimar Germany that happened in 1922 which caused prices to go up by roughly 1,300%. Which means if the whole world participates in this fraud of revaluing their fiat down by 98% using the excuse of gold to justify it, that would mean the real purchasing power of your


$141,000 ounce of gold would be roughly $10,800 to $14,100 in year 1. assuming prices increase from about 1,000% to 1,295% based on that VHimar Germany example. Now, just as in the first scenario, this would cause a panic out of fiat currency as people dump them in order to get into hard assets, specifically into gold, because there would be no safe fiat currency anymore. And the model that I showed you earlier would be rendered obsolete, leaving gold, silver, and Bitcoin, yes, I said Bitcoin because I can only tell you the


truth of how I see things here on this channel, as the only widely accepted mediums of exchange, which would drive the value of gold to levels close to the $40,000 per ounce that Lynette Zang says is needed for gold to back up the world's debt, which according to my estimations would be closer to a range of $25,000 per ounce to $33,000 per ounce as you can see here in the numbers on the screen. And that would drive the value of silver in today's dollar terms using the same gold to silver ratio as


in the previous part of the exercise to anywhere between $387 per ounce up to $500 per ounce. And if it sounds crazy or too good to be true, that is because it is. And considering a recent study that suggests Americans, and this probably applies to people in the rest of the developed world too, by the way, have a very low tolerance for economic pain. Instead of expecting a major overhaul or a monetary reset, which would cause pain to anybody who doesn't hold either gold, silver, or Bitcoin, as I've just illustrated, we


can probably expect leaders all around the world to continue to pass the problems on to the next generation, as they have been doing basically since 1913 when the Federal Reserve was created, or maybe arguably since 1971 when the United States went off of the gold standard as an alternative to dealing dealing with the problems head on. Because if Paul Vulkar, the Fed chair who defeated inflation with extremely high interest rates in the 1980s, learned anything from that ordeal, it's that doing the right thing


is not easy. And it earns you death threats, which he really received while doing it. And that's something that I doubt any political leader or politician anywhere in the world would like to deal with in the 21st century. So, bringing things back to reality a little bit, if a revaluation of gold to $141,000 per ounce is something we shouldn't expect as reasonable and intelligent people, and I have a lot of respect for the people who watch these videos. I read the comments. I know you guys are really most for the most part


reasonable and intelligent people. What is it that makes the most sense in predicting where the prices of gold and silver will go over the next 5 years? This is where I bring up the viewer question for this video, which comes from TJ White, whose question was the inspiration for this entire video. And TJ asked, "Is it true that the USA is refinancing $9 trillion in debt this year?" And he also asked if quantitative easing, which is just code for money printing, is an option if the USA can't


find enough lenders to give them the $9 trillion. and if so, what would the results be for gold and silver prices? So, to start, there is a lot of contradictory information about how much the USA actually has to borrow in 2025. But according to what I dug up from the Congressional Budget Office, the total is about $9.2 trillion, of which $7.2 trillion is debt refinancing, so paying back lenders by taking new debt. And $2 trillion is completely new debt. So the United States in a nutshell is using the


credit card to pay off other credit cards while requesting a new credit card to incur $2 trillion of new debt. That will leave the total national debt at about $39 trillion by next year. And when it comes to demand for that debt, TJ, if you're watching, hello. You are absolutely right. The demand for US debt is drying up. Not only because people know the debt will never honestly be repaid, but because US debt is now in direct competition with new ambitious borrowing programs, much like the EU's


new military spending program, which aims at borrowing €800 billion to fund new defense spending. And that's where the Federal Reserve comes in. Because when there is a gap to fill in lending to the US government in case there's nobody else who wants to lend the US government that money, the Federal Reserve prints up the money to fill that gap. And although they are not printing up new money yet, despite some bad information, by the way, floating around on the internet that they are, it is


true that they are buying back more US debt than they were at this time last year. And those of you who are familiar with quantitative tightening, which is when the Fed sells assets or lets the bonds that they own mature without buying them back to decrease the money supply and cool inflation. Those of you familiar with that may already know that the rate at which the Federal Reserve is decreasing their balance sheet has already dropped by 58% versus the same time last year. meaning they are buying


back more of the bonds that they owned once they reach maturity to help fill the gaps in US debt demand. And in the simplest terms possible, it suggests that quantitative easing could restart soon, which is in line with my expectations, which would drive interest rates down to where the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury want them to be in order to at least create the illusion that US debt is sustainable moving forward as it would get the interest payments on the debt down. But as a consequence of this, it would drive


inflation up. And this has been a major contributing factor to gold's incredible performance since 2000 as it would send real interest rates into even deeper negative territory. Meaning the interest you get when you lend money out to somebody would be less than the rate at which prices are rising. Meaning the old saying cash is trash is very true. And this would send gold up to even higher levels. But the question is how high. Now to determine that, I looked at gold's performance in 5-year chunks


versus the growth of US national debt starting from 1990. And as you can see here, gold suffered in the '90s due to central bank selling in favor of dollars as the US emerged as the winners of the cold war and even ran some budget surpluses during that time which only boosted confidence internationally in the US dollar as the global reserve currency. But a lot has changed since then and gold price along with silver price has started to go up at a faster rate as wars and the global financial


crisis have increased US borrowing and has triggered a return to gold by central banks who are simply uncertain about the safety of the US dollar financial system moving forward. So using that information, I isolated gold and silver performance versus US debt growth for the three periods marked here in red on the screen, which also includes, by the way, eliminating the 2011 blowoff top for gold and silver and subsequent correction in metals prices that followed. And what I determined by looking at this data is that in more or


less normal conditions to set a conservative base, gold price goes up 50% faster than the rate of US debt growth. Now, using the US government's own numbers, which assumes national debt growth of between 33% and 49% between now and 2030, we can conservatively assume gold will hit a range of between 5 and $6,000 per ounce. with silver hitting $60 to $100 an ounce as more precious metals buyers and speculators choose silver over gold due to its higher cost of entry, driving the GSR down between 80 and 60, which would also


be impacted, of course, by rising industrial demand for silver. Now, before we continue, let me be very clear on something here. These estimates are if we take the Congressional Budget Offic's estimates at face value. But, and there's a big butt here, considering the fact that the actual deficits have grown more than CBO projections in each of the last 3 years, I look at the high estimate as the base case scenario for gold and silver, which indicates near $6,000 gold in 2030. And depending on


the GSR, which could be between 80 and 60 by then, suggests silver price will probably be between $75 and $95 per ounce. Now, while looking at these conservative numbers, and this is, by the way, just the conservativebased case, and I will get to some other numbers in a moment, but while looking at these numbers, I think this is exactly the type of analysis that played at least a partial factor in how JP Morgan analysts reached the $6,000 per ounce for gold target by 2029 that I've shared here on the channel before and


some other YouTubers have also been sharing in videos. But as I finish this topic, I want to remind everyone of the numbers that I shared with you all last year where I said that a repeat of the 2002 to 2011 bull cycle for gold and silver would deliver much higher prices in a blowoff top scenario with those numbers going out to 2033 suggesting nearly $12,000 an ounce gold and $200 per ounce silver which assuming a steady 6% rate of inflation per year, which I understand is modest, I understand it


will likely be more than that, but just for the sake of argument would deliver about $7,500 per ounce gold in real US dollar purchasing power terms today and $129 per ounce silver. And although I think it's best right now to focus on my 2025 and 2026 targets because a lot can happen between now and 2030 or even 2033, I just hope that this exercise, these numbers in response to TJ's question have given you all some food for thought with respect to where gold and silver are likely headed both


optimistically and conservatively. Because the performance of metals over the past 5 years, as you can see here, is not a fluke. It's not a coincidence. It is a message. And the message is we have gotten away with borrowing from future generations for too long. And the bill is coming due right now. And that bill is coming due in the form of higher prices and lower wages with the best way to protect yourselves moving forward. Protect the value of your money and the value of your investment portfolio being


with a reasonable position in precious metals that should be growing in percentage with respect to your net worth as you get older and as you approach retirement considering the growing risks to the financial system as well as national pension plans like social security. So with that said, I want to thank everybody for watching. If you enjoyed the content, please remember to leave a like below. Please remember to leave your questions and comments below. I read all of them. And remember, one question appears in every single


video I do. You never know, I may choose yours to be in the next video. And if you think this content is valuable, please share it with people you know and your loved ones in order to get this message out to a wider group of people. So, as I say at the end of all my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you all in the next video. Goodbye.