gold news

 That's not a cup and handle. That's a beerstein. I agree, Jason. Look at that. Perfect fit. >> And guess what? When it breaks that neckline there, I'm going to be having one of those beers. [Music] >> Hi, it's Mike and Allan once again with the Gold Silver Show. Alan, how are you doing? >> I'm great, Mike, thanks. How are you? >> Good. Good. So, uh, you put together a presentation on some, uh, viewer comments. So, why don't we go through that? >> Yes, exactly. So, most of these are

about silver. We've got a couple about gold. Uh, and, uh, the first one here comes from Thomas. He says, "Charts show what happened." In other words, the past. I'd like to know why things are pushing the price up right now. So, any thoughts on that, Mike? The latest on why the silver market is moving right now? Um, you know, the best investment you can make is in your own financial education. That is it. That's a better investment than gold, silver, Bitcoin, anything is first

to learn about all of this stuff. the book that you and I spent four years researching and writing the one that uh and and we had another Tim Burus, another research assistant working uh with us, you know, for four years we did this and it has pretty much everything in there. Uh and so if you want to know uh what's pushing the price up now, there's a whole bunch of things, but we're in a five-year structural deficit where we uh use up more silver in industry basically and throw it away

than we produce each year. Stockpiles are running very low. If you add investment demand, it's in a 7-year deficit. And the these deficits are not small. All it takes is just a tiny amount of monetary demand, which means a crisis. If if there's any crisis, I mean, look at what happened. Uh silver is is in the mid30s or the low30s right now. Uh it was $48 in 2011, and that was right after the global financial crisis. It did that runup. Uh it's still below. I mean it was it was it hit 5250 intraday in January of 1980

and there's like nothing that is selling at a discount to its 1980 price except maybe computer chips because they were uh brand new back then and the you know um Moore's law uh has caused the price to fall. Uh so anyway there are there there are so many drivers it's a separate chapter in the book but industrial even without any monetary demand industrial demand solar panels superconductors batteries electric cars uh they're going to take the price of silver up alone. You don't need it to be

a safe haven investment for it to to pay off. The safe haven investment is what will create the fireworks. Any comment? >> Yeah, I agree with you. And I'm going to say something to Thomas here that's a little bit counterintuitive, which is that I have a better understanding of what's going on in gold and silver today by studying things from 1970, the 1930s, 1913, 1776. So, you know, history repeats. So, you can read about an entire bull market and understand what happened back then. And

once you realize, oh, we're going through the same thing now. You can answer this question. I'd like to know why things are pushing the price up now because there's historical precedent for it. So, yeah, it's it's just a repetition of what happened before. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Okay. So, let's move on. Yeah. >> All right. Our next question here. What I don't get about the narrative, Mike, I I get that silver is undervalued by historical standards, but what is the

value proposition for silver today and going forward? Measuring against a house, why would the price of silver mean revert? I know we all want silver to be monetary metal again, but I don't see a catalyst for it actually happening. What do you think, Mike? >> Okay. Well, wait, I just answered the last question. Sort of answers this question as well. Um, we are digging up the easy silver and running out of it. Uh, it's it's all in the book. This includes gold, too. Uh, the easy

discoveries, the big deposits have all been discovered and worked out. Are we running out of wood? Can you regrow wood? Yes, you can. So, building a house, you know, you can you can grow the trees, you can build a house. So, we're not running out of forests to build houses out of. Are we running out of silver? Yes. Take a look at the US Geological Survey. Uh uh the silver needs to go up. It it is severely undervalued compared to other assets. Uh and we don't need it to be a monetary metal again for it. It needs to mean

revert against these things. Well, one of the reasons it hasn't yet is one, there's a manipulation. Two, it's a byproduct of mining other metals. But as soon as we have a uh a global financial crisis again, there's always a crisis around the corner. It might take 10 years to get here. It might take two uh you know um the the longest uh is a little over 10 years uh that we go between recessions. And um so and when you look at where we are as far as the bubbles in real estate, in stocks, in

you know, we're in the everything bubble except it's the almost everything bubble. I point that out in the book. Gold and silver measured against everything else aren't in a bubble. >> Yeah, exactly. So yeah, I think the uh I think the value proposition for silver is pretty clear in in that case. >> Yeah. uh the the catalysts going forward are a steady march forward. Uh if the uh if there is no crisis and no monetary demand, they need it for uh electric cars and for solar panels and everything

else. The the projected demand far outstrips projected supply and we're already in a deficit that's five years old. And so the only way to correct this and actually have enough silver for industry is for price to uh reduce demand as it goes up and increase supply as it goes up and then it it would get uh back into balance with everything else after a while but it is severely undervalued. Okay. >> Yeah. Exactly. So silver one of the useful one of the most useful materials in the world. It's not renewable as you

pointed out, you know, compared to something like wood. Uh, yeah. Dwindling supply, increasing demand. I mean, all the factors that could be good for silver are good for silver right now. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Right. Well, you specifically mentioned measuring it against a house. Would it Why would it mean revert? You can always grow the wood for more houses. >> Exactly. >> But you can't grow more silver. >> Exactly. Perfect. >> Excellent. Next question comes from Liz.

May I ask whom will be buying our silver once it goes up? Suggestions. >> Everybody. It depends. If there is a another financial crisis, if there's a monetary event where people seek safe havens, uh people will rush toward I I've said this so many times. Uh so like I said, your best financial education. The book is only $9.99 if you get the Kindle. Uh, and I'm not trying to I actually lose money on the books. I'm not making a profit on the books. It's just a whole bunch of factors that

came together during COVID to cause me to have to make a much larger investment in producing that book than uh I would normally have had to have made. And so, every time I sell a book, it costs me about a buck right now to sell a book. Uh so uh it's spreading the knowledge is the reason that I pay you a dollar to read the book. Now the Kindle doesn't cost me anything to to so I probably make a little profit there by the time the publisher and the and the uh and Amazon and everybody else takes their

cut out first. Uh so uh but the book does answer all of these questions and the thing is if you use numbers instead of emotion for your exit scenario when you're going to sell you should be selling at the point when everybody uh will not take they when they want it so bad that they will not take no for an answer when they are buying at the wrong time. Because if you take a look at history in 1980, it was the peak in 1980 when everybody was lining up at coin shops when that's what causes a peak. We

haven't gotten anywhere near a peak yet. In fact, if you take a look at uh retail sales, they're actually down, right? Even though silver has gone up, uh the the retail sales on both gold and silver are down. It's uh China propelling uh gold to China and central bank buying for gold. Now if if uh the world's central banks seem to be preparing for something and they've made gold a tier one asset, shouldn't people like be investigating this more? So if you want to know who

you are going to be selling your silver to, it's all in the book. We Ellen and I did so much research and dedicated so many years of our lives to this. So >> yeah, and you're you're going to be selling it to people who are not learning about this right now, right? They're going to be learning about it a year, two years, three years from now, much later. They're the ones who think that uh a crisis can't happen. They think that the stock market's going to go up forever. There's never going to be

another recession. That's who you're going to be selling it to. >> Exactly. Right. So, >> and you want to be, you know, it's it's just like getting into a line. You want to be at the front of the line right now and have your gold and silver and you're going to be selling to those people that are showing up late that are going to be offering anything to get it. And and you know, you it isn't really the price, it's the value. How much stuff is it going to buy? When the guy said, "Why

will it meme revert against a home, you know, his home?" Uh uh it's because if you look throughout history, one of the chapters that got cut from the book is something that Alan and I spent a lot of time on. But we took all of these different financial assets and you divide them against each other and you take them back to the 1870s or how far back did we go? And what you see is that they're in balance once in a while, but they keep on u one one of them goes overvalued compared to the other. Then

it reverts. it reverses and it reverses and some of them over the past few hundred years have been in balance. They they've done this like 25 times. It's just uh insane. And I mean that chapter it just put too much it was going to be a 100page chapter and put put too much space between the um beginning of the book and the point of the book and so we had to eliminate it. Also huge paper shortages. Uh, and then I got the offered this a bit this really expensive paper, but I was told if I took it, I

had to take all of it. So, I ended up printing four times more books than I wanted to. Otherwise, we would have had to wait another year to be able to publish the book. That was during COVID. It was the supply chain disruptions. So, uh, anyway, it get the Kindle version. There's a the chapter on silver is not that long. It'll take you um half an hour to read or maybe maybe an hour at the most. So, but you'll have a real good understanding of this. >> Exactly. All right, moving right along

here. Dan says you need to do an inflation adjusted valuation of gold and silver. You will see that as you surely know that gold and silver are the same price in adjusted dollars. Gold and silver are a great hedge to maintain purchasing power. Well, thank you, Dan. Yeah. Do you want to jump in, Mike? >> Well, yeah, he's the the great hedge to um maintain purchasing power is true over the centuries, but there are times when it goes into bubbles, and it's not in a bubble yet. uh you want to if you

want to increase if it were uh true that it has only kept up with inflation then um uh right now the Dow gold is at like 12 to1 and it was 45 in 1999 2000 uh I believe it was um like 38 when I first started investing so uh I can buy uh like three times more stocks with my gold. Uh I I can buy a whole lot more real estate with my gold and silver than I could back then. So, it's gaining in purchasing power if you're buying it at the right time because it goes through these overvaluations and

undervaluations. And when you measure it against you know ye decades of history uh what you see is that we are still in a severely over undervalued state right now. So um the and it's gold and silver. Gold if you use the CP lie. Yes, it's it's uh uh corrected against inflation but not silver. Silver is still Oh, okay. So you've got your inflation adjusted gold channel here. So explain this Alan. >> Yeah. Okay. So the gold line is the price of gold. We've all seen that a

whole bunch of times. And we've got two different inflation measures here. The government CPI, which we call the CP lie, that's green. Uh, and it creates a valuation channel. So, if you were to index, uh, the CPI to the peak of gold back in the 1980s, you would get this green line going across the top here. >> Yeah. Or if you index it to the bottom in 1970, you get the green line on the bottom. >> Exactly. So, those two green lines are perfectly parallel to each other. and it

forms a valuation channel. So that's really the high and the low that gold ever was and you can see it kind of bouncing around between this valuation channel. So the suggestion there is that according to the government CPI CPI numbers the price of gold is kind of near the top of its range like we're almost at a peak and maybe it's going to go down from here >> right >> that seems ridiculous to me because as you pointed out Mike like all the factors that you would expect to see at

the peak uh we don't see them we don't see people lining you know lining up outside the coin shops and all that stuff. >> Exactly. That's what causes a peak is everybody trying to rush into it at the same time. And what we are actually seeing in the retail sector is uh is low sales volumes right now. Uh it's uh the public is still like yawning when it comes to gold and silver and they're chasing uh the stock market right now which is in I mean the Buffett indicator is just in insane valuations.

when this next crisis happens, it's going to be one of the worst that has ever happened because the so many things are just so skewed. But what's interesting here is you have the shadow stats CPI, also called uh the shadow stats alternate CPI. Now, a lot of people think, oh, well, that's just some nut putting together. No, John Williams was an insurance actuary and in the um mid80s all of his models stopped working and he was wondering why and he started researching it and then he found that

the government was changing the way that they calculate inflation. they kept on messing with the CPI and uh he went back and and uses what he uses for this alternate CPI is the government numbers from World War II to uh 1982. The method that the US government used to calculate inflation. So these are both sets of government numbers. One of them keeps on getting massaged periodically. Anytime the uh the CPI is coming in too hot and it makes the administration look bad, it seems to get uh adjusted. So, what have

you got there? I've always said also that the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. But these are two sets of government CPI numbers and one of them is adjusted to uh sort of cheat uh uh social security recipients uh out of their full you know they don't keep up with the true cost of living uh and all you have to do is I mean if you look at the CPI and look at your personal purchasing power where it has gone and prices go to a restaurant just I I've been traveling. You order a hamburger

and a beer in a in a airport. Oh my god, it's just unbelievable. So >> yeah, >> gold and silver have not kept up with with uh true inflation, the exp inflation that you experience dayto-day. Um uh so I believe that the truth lies between those numbers, but gold is nowhere near being in a bubble. And uh so it shows it it shows that it should be if the green uh government CP lie was true then gold would be in a bubble which would mean it would be of a large percentage of global financial assets that it would be on the

news everywhere that every uh um uh financial planner would be recommending put 30% into you What what's interesting nobody recommended gold back in the 70s until it the the last uh all the financial planners uh switched to recommending gold put 10 20 30 40% into your portfolio uh after the peak in 1980 and there's a a movie called Brewers Millions with uh um John Candy and uh Richard Prior And Richard Prior is going to inherit uh a whole bunch of uh it's like $33 million or something like

that. A lot back in 1982 when this movie came out and John Candy is it Brewster has to spend a million bucks in like a month or something like that which was almost impossible back then and just on on living just stupid stuff. And uh John Candi is trying to protect him because everybody thinks he's gone nuts. So John Candy gets this financial planner. Now this is 1982 after Gold's Peak. He's going, "Oh yeah, this guy has me in collectibles and he's got me in this and that and precious

metals." And so they're they're showing it just shows how everybody chases yesterday's news. We are nowhere near a top or you would be seeing lines in front of coin shops. you would be seeing dealers running out of metals. Uh this is is nowhere it it doesn't make any sense at all that it would be up near the top of this that green valuation channel and be in the same type of bubble that it was in back in 1980 measured against the rest of the economy. >> Yeah, exactly. And if we do follow the

shadow stats valuation channel, that would imply that first of all, gold is basically the cheapest it possibly could be, the cheapest it's been historically, >> and that it should go up to roughly $34,000 an ounce the next time it hits a bubble. So, >> so the next goes up to like I think it was like 8% of global financial assets back then or something. I can't remember what it was, but um it was it was huge. It was on the news hourly. >> Yeah. Uh um and it was in it was I've

got the book has all these quotes from Time magazine back in Janu in in 79 and 80. So uh if you want to get a historical perspective on this uh it's it's $9.99. Get the book and and just scan through it. Uh you'll have all the answers to all of this. So >> yeah. >> Yeah. Okay. >> Yeah. And and as you mentioned, Mike, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. So the CP lie understates inflation. The shadow stat CPI might overstate it. So what I have here is a very similar chart, but instead of this

green line, I have a different green line, which is M2. >> And M2 is like right in the middle. And you can see that gold is pretty nicely sort of what where it feels like it should be, which is, you know, below halfway, but certainly not at the bottom of the valuation channel. Right. And what's interesting here is that uh the it's actually closer to the shadow stats line than it would have been to the CP lie line. And M2 is basically where all of the dollars, you know, this is the dollars that get

created by the banks and the Federal Reserve and they go out into the economy. So this is covering true inflation. This is also covering the inflation of the stock market. if you know if if bonds are getting inflated, if real estate is getting inflated, you know, in the CPI the CP lie, they decided that um you don't actually own your home. You rent from yourself. So, it's a rental equivalent of what it's insane is what the CP lie is. But this sort of corroborates what I was saying that the truth lies somewhere in

the middle. uh $12,000. That is a a actually a reasonable target if gold goes into the same type of bubble that it was in back in 1980. We don't have lines at coin shops. We don't have it in in every newspaper's headlined. It's not on the news every hour. It isn't dominating and it will there will come a day where it dominates the news cycle. So buy the book and read the the quotes from the Time magazine articles. It's very interesting. >> Yeah, I found that fascinating

especially because I wasn't alive during that period. So it's very cool to kind of get in touch with that era. >> Yeah. >> Um I have the same charts here for silver. So um starting off with the government CP lie as well as the shadow stat CPI. You can see if we look at the green valuation channel that silver kind of broke through the bottom there for a solid decade and it's sort of in the bottom half still and next time silver hits a peak according to the CP lie. We might expect $200 an ounce silver.

>> But but if we take the shadow stats CPI then we're still far below this valuation channel. We're below the bottom of it. Like we've fallen out of the bottom. We got to get back into it. And then if we hit the top, that would be $2,000 an ounce silver. >> So, we've got these are both government numbers basically. And so we we really should call them uh low CP lie and high CP lie because they they both skew on either side of that M2 which does measure every dollar has to go

somewhere. So that's the measurement of how many dollars are floating around in the US economy basically and they're all seeking out goods and services. And so um the M2 is probably and and it ended up right in the middle. And so um yeah, so thousand silver is possible. I doubt it, but triple digits, I think that's a slam dunk like I've said many times. >> And so silver is incredibly undervalued right now. It isn't. It isn't. Um Oh, okay. So, this is Wow. 743. So, when we wrote the book, it was a

little bit different, but yeah. Okay. Awesome. >> Yeah. So, even by today's numbers, like silver's below 40 right now. So, that suggests that it's even below the the M2 valuation channel. It hasn't even kept up with the low number of M2. So, >> wow. >> Lot of lot of room to go for silver to catch up here. >> Yeah. All it takes is just a well it it takes uh people finally realizing oh my god we're running out uh and if there's any monetary demand on top of that look

out fireworks. >> Yes. Um I've got something from the book here. The question where might silver go? Uh so yeah you've talked about this before Mike but basically what we did >> just adjusting it compared to all these other financial assets. uh and uh it's it's what percentage change did real estate, the stock market, the 10-year Treasury, GDP, uh currency in circulation, M2 currency supply, what percentage change did they have from 1980 until today? Now, the numbers are

somewhat different than what you just saw in those graphs because I we used the intraday high of 5250 instead of $50. So uh yeah so there it's it's this corroborates that M2 um uh scenario of inflation. >> Yes I believe. Yeah >> I I think so too. And you know all these all these different currency numbers currency in circulation M2 MZM uh and even the CPI to an extent with an asterisk kind of uh yeah those are those are similar. I would say to silver and they have a good apples to apples

comparison something like the Willshshire it's hard to compare because those are those are companies that are trying to create synergies right they're 1 plus 1 equals three that's what they're trying to do you know sometimes they succeed sometimes they fail but you know these currency numbers are directly comparable to silver doesn't change right atomic number 47 its properties are fixed when you use it you're not trying to you know create additional silver atoms out of you know out of

cyerspace Um so I think these are more comparable. So these 400 700 900 numbers 1,200 uh yeah I think I think that's that's in the range of what's plausible. So I think the low range of where silver should go is that CPI number that is like the I if um we don't end up I think triple digits is even inevitable without monetary demand that you know getting to a 100 uh 200 uh that still would not yeah compared to those other financial assets sense that that 200 wouldn't be in a bubble. The CP lie that the current

one this the low CP lie uh is just that it's a lie. And so I I would look at $200 as probably the floor of a predicted uh future price. When that's the problem, I don't know. I know that, you know, if you look at my first book there, I made like uh 10 different claims in them. Seven of them came true. The other three have yet to come true, but they will. It's just taking a lot longer than I thought. Yep, I hear you. Next question. Eth says, "Do all the math next time. Include storage and

insurance in your calculations. So tired of the BS." Well, Ethus, if if that's your name. Um, my thought on this is that I've been invested in precious metals continuously for over 10 years, and I've never paid any storage or insurance fees. So, that means all my charts of gold and silver, they already include storage and insurance. For me personally, that might not be the case for you. Um, but one thing to consider with insurance is that if you have insurance specifically on your precious

metals, then you have to say what you have and that means there's a record of it out there. Not everyone wants that. So, be careful about that. And, you know, for me personally, if I had a much larger quantity, I probably would pay for storage, but I'm not at that point yet in my financial journey. So, Mike, what do you think about this storage and insurance? Well, I have been paying storage for years because I um I'm high-profile and I've got a lot of it and uh so I can't keep it at home. I

have to but you know I'm paying guys with guns to guard it and insurance is included in the storage fees. That's part of it. You are fully insured and I believe it's by Lloyds of London. Um, and uh, uh, you know, God, we've done so much. Do all the math next time. You know what? You should do the math for us and get back to us. I'm sorry. I do. I've been doing this now for uh, almost 20 years. And I'm a little bit tired actually. Uh, but it it has paid off, you know. Um, you can

there there's schemes today. Uh, you can get cash flow on your gold and silver. Scroll down to the bottom of the page. You're taking the only asset that has no counterparty risk that you can hold in your hand. And you're introducing counterparty risk. And it says so right at the bottom of the page that you're introducing risk. Uh, but you can get cash flow on it. They will pay you a percentage for uh leasing your gold or silver. But will you get it back in a in a crisis? That is the question. Uh

storage and insurance in our calculations. Maybe we'll come up with some sort of data feed that we can get that. I don't know of a data feed that makes that an easy thing to do. Uh we'll see. >> Yeah, that's that's tough. And and different people pay different storage fees and have different kinds of insurance policies. >> Yeah, >> do it yourself. And then and then if you've got stocks or something in a brokerage, uh you're the brokerage the broker takes something sometime. They

all make a profit somehow. Everybody does. Uh and then uh if we're doing it against uh real estate, then really what we do need to do is uh take out um taxes and insurance on we have to add taxes and insurance on real estate. If you're measuring stuff against stuff, everything has this. And so, um, I don't know. Anyway, let's move on. >> Yeah, we're we're not going to do anything different on that one. Christopher asks, "What is the point of getting excited about the price of

silver in terms of the dollar? Wouldn't a skyrocketing price indicate a collapsing dollar?" >> Yes. Right. Um, if uh if I'm trying to think of a value of something like a stock or a car. Okay, so you take a a $100,000 car and it goes to a million bucks. That mean and we've got the dollar is collapsing. If you take a $100,000 worth of gold and it goes to $10 million, yes, the dollar is collapsing, but you can buy 10 times more cars with your gold that is pricing those do those collapsing dollars. You

know, it's it's uh it is the canary in the coal mine. And what happens during an event like when the do when the dollars are losing value and they have been I can buy so much more uh real estate stocks um you know just about everything I can buy more of today because I've been invested in gold and silver for so long and other than cryptos best performing asset uh of this century and when you include cryptos best performing or Well, Bitcoin is up again. I don't know. Maybe it's uh not,

but uh as of like a week or two ago, a best performing asset of this year, including cryptos. And so, um uh yes, it is the dollar collapsing that's part of the skyro skyrocketing price, and that's the reason you've got to stop measuring stuff in terms of dollars. >> Yeah. The way I like to think about it is uh kind of like what you mentioned, Mike, traveling, uh getting a cheeseburger and a beer at the airport. In my mind, an ounce of silver should be able to get you uh a meal. So, if it's

$35, it should be able to afford a meal. But when we get excited about the price of silver going up in terms of the dollar, we get excited about that going up a lot faster than the price of a cheeseburger or a beer, right? So, silver goes up faster. >> The cheeseburger and beer was was about 30. Well, maybe it was $50. I can't remember. But it was just an insane price in the airport. >> Yeah. Yeah. But if silver goes up faster than that, then then you're then you're then you're doing good.

>> Yeah. >> Um >> I remember I was shocked. >> I used to when I first started uh let me see. I think uh McDonald's burger was uh 15 cents and uh French fries were 10, I believe. Yeah. >> Okay. Okay. Silver is a percentage of global financial assets and this chart ends in 2015. So it's old but you know 2015. So the price of silver is more than double what it is uh what it was then but still that that gives you an idea. And that 1980 rush that's what a bubble looks like. That's when silver

was in a bubble. It's nowhere near that today, but that's that day is coming. And I do feel that uh it'll be somewhere around $5,000 an ounce gold where people will look at it and go, "Wow, this was $250 an ounce in the year 2000." Uh I think, you know, maybe the silver is a better bargain. >> They'll think they'll there will come a day where they think gold is too expensive. That happened in 1979. gold had gone from $35 to $400. And um uh and people changed their

preference in late 79 from gold to silver once gold was perceived as being a little bit on the expensive side. >> Yeah. And they rushed into silver quickly. >> Yeah. >> Last comment here. That's not a cup and handle. That's a beerstein. I agree, Jason. Look at that. Perfect fit. >> And guess what? When it breaks that neckline there, I'm going to be having one of those beers. That That's great. So, who was that again? Thank you, Jason. >> Excellent way to end this video. I want

to thank you, Alan, for uh putting this together. It was great. >> Yep. Thanks, Mike. Thanks, everyone. >> Invest and earn up to $2,000 in bonus silver at golds.com. It's easy. Step one, open any gold silver storage account excluding IRA. Step two, purchase your precious metals. Step three, get up to $2,000 in bonus silver dropped straight into your vault. Visit golds.com/frees to claim your silver.