gold news

 [Music] hello everyone and welcome to the first monthly recap of 2024 of course we are looking at January January 2024 and I want to give you the numbers and the news that are going to affect your financial future so let's dive in first thing I want to look at is the S&P so this year is a chart of the S&P 500 throughout the month of January you can see generally it went up and then at the end here a couple days where it had a sharp decline keep that in mind because I want to talk about this throughout the

video why did it decline like this and generally speaking why was it going up let's compare that to the Dow and it looks almost identical generally going up with a tiny sharp decline at the end why would that be hold that thought the NASDAQ very similar these almost look like the same charts again generally up with a sharp decline at the end okay so let's get into some specifics here we have an article here from Bloomberg slump at Texas factories mirrors weakness in other fed surveys okay so

what does this mean basically production at factories is down even though we're seeing the stock market go up okay so how do we reconcile these uh let's let's look at something else from that same article Regional fed surveys show steeper manufacturing contraction so manufacturing is the backbone of the economy and here we have four separate data points from the Dallas fed New York fed Richmond fed and Kansas City fed that are all showing a pretty significant decline in manufacturing so

a note here readings below zero indicate Contracting activity so how many readings do we have here below zero it's almost every single one look at Dallas every single month it's below zero this is manufacturing Contracting month by month by month and if you look at the January data point that we just got it's the second worst in Dallas it's the worst of the last year in New York okay it's the worst in Richmond and it's darn close to the worst in Kansas City so looking at these four samples

manufacturing is Contracting over and over and over yet the stock market Market is going up this is this is a weird thing how do we explain this well if we zoom out and look for the last 30 years leading economic indicator index versus the S&P 500 leading economic indicators okay that's the red line generally pretty tightly correlated with the S&P 500 even during Co there was a pretty tight correlation they both contracted sharply and then rebounded together but lately we've seen

a Divergence what could explain this why are these separate and how long is it going to be that way another tweet by the same uh guy Toby Costa the world container index okay this is basically the global freight cost index it just got updated again in the month of January and now it's up almost 140% in one month okay so the cost of shipping Freight way higher the only time we saw this in the past was during covid could we be having a second wave just like the covid wave it's possible we'll have to keep

watching this month by month but again if it's more expensive to ship Freight why isn't this being reflected in the stock [Music] market another chart I want to look at in January is crude oil this is WTI and you can see that throughout the month of January it moved from about 70 2 to about 76 kind of a steady rise up meaning it's getting more expensive to ship things whether it's International or domestic it's just going to be more expensive to ship things more expensive to get Goods into the hands of consumers

shouldn't that also be reflected in the stock market like more than just the last two days of the month well let's look at one other thing housing so housing of course we don't have daily price data so if we look at just the month of January we might only get a single data point so it's hard to see a trend in just one month so we have to zoom out here and here we're looking at San Francisco houses since 2002 there was of course the housing bubble of 20067 and 8 and we are clearly in

another housing bubble at least in San Francisco and it's much bigger we have a 20 January 2024 update biggest price drops from 2022 Peak prices were below their 2022 peaks in nine metros of the 20 metos in the case Schiller Index this right here is just one of them this is San Francisco so yeah massive decline here could this be the deflating of a real estate bubble possibly uh could it be in just one of the Metro areas possibly could it be in nine of the 20 metros possibly again this is something we're

going to have to watch month by month one other example here uh I picked a a building here in Washington DC an office building just sold at a shocking 83% discount to what it last sold for the Xerox building in the Washington DC area sold for $25 million or $83 per square foot it last sold for 145 million in 2011 so again again this could be a rolling over of the real estate market we'll see we'll see hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if you'd like to help our Channel please

consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we're one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I'm doing with my own Investments thanks for making Golds silver.com your dealer and now back to the video one other thing I want to mention here is the 10-year treasury so during the month of January yields Rose so going down on the chart this is inverted so these are rising

yields which we can think of as falling prices right treasuries becoming less appealing and then starting to reverse and then yields falling so starting starting the month around 3 3.95% finishing just under 4% and we see this this u-shape pattern especially Rising here at the end which is similar to gold gold had a very similar path here during the month of January so these are kind of the two safe havens you might think of the the 10year treasury and gold so gold starting above 2070 finishing just shy

of 2070 so on on balance is pretty flat but this U shape here very similar to the curve in the 10year treasury so what is going on here we said that stock market the the stock market tends to be rising except the last couple days it had a sharp decline you look at the safe haven assets they tend to decline until the last couple days they had a sharp increase so they're almost doing the opposite the risk assets going up and dropping the safe haven assets going down and rising and they don't seem to

be connected to fundamentals what could it be well the FED hints that rate Cuts aren't coming soon so it would seem that all these pieces of the economy are connected more to what the Federal Reserve decided to do with interest rates than they are connected to the actual fundamentals H interesting so stocks tumbled Wednesday after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Paul indicated that officials are likely won't start cutting rates at the central bank's next policy meeting in March so we're not going to

get a meeting in February the next one in March they probably won't cut rates either or at least that's what they say and it seems like the economy is reflecting more to that than fundamentals interesting so two other things I want to look at this month silver silver uh starting about $24 an ounce moving to just over 23 doesn't quite have that that increase at the end but silver of course less of a safe haven than gold and more of an industrial medal so maybe this is more accurate um relative to fundamentals

Bitcoin we had some news here Bitcoin was up and down and back up again relatively flat on balance uh but the big news with Bitcoin is the approval by the SEC of Bitcoin spot ETFs so ETFs were approved roughly roughly at the peak of the price in January and then once the approval uh was announced publicly the price of Bitcoin dropped so really a buy the rumor sell the fact type situation interesting uh a couple other things on bitcoin here Bitcoin overtakes silver to become the second biggest commodity ETF so top three being gold

Bitcoin and silver and that's just the first week that's just the first week of Bitcoin actually trading as an ETF uh so these These are the three Commodities that represent basically 100% of my portfolio so I'm I'm going to keep my eye on these three um yeah so stay tuned for next month one other thing on bitcoin I'm not going to read this whole thing but the key takeaway here is while we were sleeping the European commission has been creating a report which they plan to label Bitcoin as environmentally

harmful a threat to EU energy security and a Haven for financial criminals so that is Paving the way for a 2025 deao EU ban on bitcoin and Bitcoin mining so for anyone who just kind of thinks in terms of rumors yeah they they think that Bitcoin hurts the environment and is a threat to energy security and they think it's for criminals but to anyone who actually studies the details they know that this is all wrong and generally speaking it's the opposite of the truth so we can go into those more in a separate video but

it seems like the EU Regulators are uh going running for Bitcoin so we'll see what happens that leads me into the meme of the week and before I show you that I just want to say that after the meme I do have one other news story so ordinarily the meme would be last but stick around for one news story after the meme here it is on top of the Fiat Hill your Ponzi scheme is killing the environment seems like hypocrisy to me but take it as you will and the other thing I wanted to share with you before

we wrap up is another tweet oh look the federal reserve's internal review found that fellow members did nothing wrong when they were caught insider trading so about two and a half years ago this was September of 2021 two fed leaders resigned because of stock trading and just this month the FED review cleared those Central Bank officials of violating any rules it's a big club and you ain't in it so anyways uh that's it for this month thank you so much for watching stay safe out there I'll see you

soon