Hello everyone, welcome to Baldu Guy Money. And this past week, we got the Federal Reserve interest rate cut that it seems so many people had been waiting for. And what we got on top of that was a clear indication that more interest rate cuts are on the way in 2025 with a 92% chance of seeing another rate cut in October and a nearly 80% chance as you can see here on the screen of seeing one more cut after that in the month of December giving us a total of three rate cuts in 2025. Now, despite a little


pullback in the prices of gold and silver immediately following the rate cut announcement, which in my opinion was likely caused by institutional manipulation with the goal of helping some big money client or clients get in at a slightly lower price. We saw both gold and silver make quick recoveries as they continue to outperform stocks with silver showing early signs of outperforming gold which is a sign that the biggest gains for precious metals and mining stocks are still in front of us. That said, despite optimism in the


metals community, including my own what I like to call rational optimism, there are some people who think we are nearing the top, at least for silver, as we approach the mythical $50 per ounce price level that in my last video I admitted would be a serious barrier for us to pass before carrying on to $60, which is a price I said to look out for in 2026. And to be perfectly honest, it would be naive or maybe even just foolish not to expect some resistance and a pullback from that price level once we hit it, at


least the first time. And I base that on the expectation that some institutions and traders will take profits at that price, temporarily pushing the price back down, like we saw when gold hit $3,500 an ounce in April, after which it pulled back about 11% and then continued up after a 4-month pause. So, in this video, I want to dig deeper into this topic, starting with how close I think we really are to the top for silver price and just how much more I think the price of silver has to run before we


reach blowoff top levels. Once those two topics are covered, we'll circle back to the topic of $50 silver to discuss how long I think it will take us to break above that level and what type of pullback I expect to see before we break through $50 an ounce and hit my target of $60 an ounce or higher in 2026. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to check out summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust while also supporting my channel and the work


I do here on YouTube. And yes, prices are rising, but Summit Metals has great deals on both gold and silver Krueger brands right now, which are coins I personally stack. And if you're a new customer, remember that you get 5 ounces of silver at spot when you use code new customer at checkout. Details are in the video description below. So, jumping in, one of the biggest drivers for this massive bull market in metals is a loss of confidence in fiat currencies, but more specifically the US dollar. And


where it once literally represented the gold standard to many people around the world today, it now represents decadence and irresponsibility. And although we can say a lot of bad things about the US dollar and how it's been managed, the truth is that the dollar when measured by the DXY dollar index that measures dollar strength relative to other currencies is stronger today at 97.6 than its average strength level of about 93 since the end of the Soviet Union. What's more is when we compare where the


dollar is today versus the two previous times silver reached nearly $50 an ounce, you can see that we're also at much higher levels. And for those of you wondering what this means exactly, this is a very clear picture telling us that silver and gold have plenty of room to move up still as the dollar continues its path down in strength driven by falling interest rates, ddollarization, and outofcontrol government spending. And if a 10% pullback in the US dollar in 2025 has at least in part fueled a


49% move up in the price of silver on top of course of supply and demand factors. Imagine where we are going to be when the dollar comes down 13% more to reach the 1980 levels when silver first tested $50 an ounce and then another 14% down to the 2011 lows where we tested $50 for the second time which is precisely where I think we're headed. What is going to happen is a real blowoff top. And to make it easy for everyone watching this video to visualize, what a real blowoff top looks like is a major move up in average price


levels. And that's what you're looking at now. Data showing the average price of silver in every year from 1990 to 2025. Now, what I'll say here is that the 25% increase in average price from 2024 to this moment in 2025, it is significantly smaller than the move we saw silver make from 2009 to 2010, which was 39% leading into 2011, which is where the real fireworks happened, where the average price of silver moved up by 73%. And as I've added in the text on the bottom of this image, to make an equal


move up in average price for silver, like the one we saw from 2010 to 2011, silver would have to reach $89.50 per ounce and then stay there for the rest of the year. So for people who are calling this a blowoff top or the top in silver, we are not even close. And that fact becomes clearer when we look at the price of an average US home measured in silver. Because as the value of the US dollar falls, the value of real money, so gold and silver as measured in US dollars goes up. And it's a trend we've


seen since the dot bubble in 2000. And based on this trend, I think it's a very realistic expectation to see silver come back in line with the 2011 lows where it only took 4,600 ounces of silver to buy a medianpriced American home. Now, some of you may be saying that it's not silver that will go up, but it's housing that will come down. And I understand the temptation to think that way. But as I've said in past videos here on the channel, I don't expect a major correction in housing


prices this late in an interest rate cutting cycle, especially now that the US government wants to get involved in making homes more affordable for firsttime buyers. Not by allowing prices to continue to correct, which would be the right decision to allow happen, but by making the monthly mortgage payments lower via lower interest rates, and that will only serve to support home prices moving into 2026. So, if we conservatively assume stable home prices from here on the backdrop of a weakening dollar and we also assume that silver


will reach the same level versus housing as it did during the 2011 peak, that means we could easily be looking at $88 silver in this cycle. Now, as far as I see it, that's a conservative estimate because as money rotates out of bonds and even out of overpriced stocks into precious metals, we could see much more explosive moves in the price of silver to the upside than what we saw compared to housing in 2011. And considering the fact that at the 2011 highs, it took only 26 ounces of silver to buy the S&P


500 stock index versus 154 ounces of silver today. If we were to reach that level again using the assumption of a modest stock market correction pulling back to the April 2025 lows at 4,800 which would be a 27% pullback from here and a reasonable level to expect considering the 25% correction we saw in 2022. We could see silver not only break above $100 an ounce, but we could see it move up to as high as $185 an ounce in an aggressive blowoff top scenario. So, as a conservative voice in this space, which I think is a good


thing because you need to have somebody like me that brings the temperature in the room down sometimes, I sincerely don't think we're looking at a blowoff top for silver until we reach a minimum price of $80 an ounce with the very real possibility of passing $100 an ounce this time around. And although I don't think we'll quite get to that $185 per ounce level, and I can talk about why in a future video, what I think this exercise shows us is how underpriced silver still is relative to other assets


and that it's really only just getting started in this broader move to the upside. In addition to that, this exercise shows us that the numbers I presented to you all a couple weeks ago based on gold price development using the gold to silver ratio are now supported by an independent separate set of data which is pointing by the way in the exact same direction giving these price targets a lot more credibility from a forecasting point of view. So with that covered, it's now time to answer this video's viewer question. And


please to all the viewers out there, remember I answer one of your questions in every single video I do. All you have to do is leave your question in the comments section below. And you never know, I may choose to answer it in my next video. And this week's question, which once again it fits right in with the main topic of this video. And we've had a few questions like this lately, comes from somebody called Altright. and he asks if I think $50 per ounce will be a local top and if we could be headed


back to $32.50 per ounce. So, let's start with the question of the pullback because for stackers who are suspicious of their recent success and it's many of you out there, it's all you seem to be focused on. And for people who feel they missed out on silver, it's the number one excuse they're using for not starting to buy now. And this is common human psychology. But to get things going here, $32.50 is not a real pullback level as far as I see things. And the reason is because


$35 per ounce was a significant price level for silver going all the way back to 2011. It was a significant level in 2012. Then once again in 2024 where we got rejected on the way up last October until we broke through that $35 level this year. And that barrier, that resistance level is now our support level. And the moving average prices for silver suggests the exact same thing with the average price of silver over the last 200 days hanging out at around that $35 level. in fact just above it. And that's where I see the price floor


for silver right now. And that means from where we just closed this past Friday, there is a possible 19% downside risk for people buying silver today. And that is something I want to be completely honest about. But I don't think it's likely. And if it does happen, it probably will not be a viable pullback because the last time we saw a significant price rejection and pullback in the price of silver, which was between October 2024 and April 2025, when we also saw price pull back by 19%, the move down to $28.34


per ounce lasted all of a few minutes. And for those of you with good memories, you'll remember that we closed the day it happened, which was April 7th, 2025, above $30 an ounce, and we haven't looked back since. So, now that we have the downside risk for silver covered, I want to reinforce the point that I think the direction we should focus on for silver is up and not down. And I say that with silver already making new highs beyond the 2011 highs in euros, Canadian dollars, Japanese yen, and


other currencies around the world. And with two more US interest rate cuts on the way in 2025, as well as a US dollar index that is barely holding on to 97 right now. their reality, the reality we're seeing in other currencies where silver's already beating the 2011 highs will become the US dollar reality and it will accelerate the move out of US dollar assets like bonds and into metals driving prices up even higher. And I think that despite my earlier doubts, we may see a test of that $50 price level


per ounce for silver as soon as this year, possibly even in October, which will be about one year after the first test of the critical $35 per ounce level. Now, once we get there for the first time, I do not expect to hold that level. In fact, as I alluded to at the start of the video, I expect a situation like the one we saw for gold at $3,500 per ounce where it spiked up and then pulled back and moved sideways for a few months before continuing up. That said, considering risks in the economy, the


higher volatility level of silver versus gold, and the fact that silver sold off in the April market correction, while gold actually went up due to its pure safe haven status, instead of seeing an 11% pullback like we saw in the case of gold when it came off of $3,500 an ounce, I think in the case of silver, we should expect another 19 to 20% pullback. back from that $50 level that mirrors the move we saw after the rejection of silver at $35 an ounce in October 2024 after which it bottomed out about 6 months later. At the same time,


the S&P 500, by the way, had corrected more than 21% from its highs. So, for those of you wondering if I am factoring in some volatility in the stock market when I say that, the answer is absolutely yes, I am. And it would bring us back after touching $50 an ounce for silver, hitting probably just below it to a range of between $39 to $41 per ounce before we see it reverse and finally break through that $50 per ounce barrier, which if we see this start to play out from October, as I suggested


earlier, and this is just a rough timeline for now, means we could expect to see that move to my $60 per ounce target around late April or early May 2026. And for full disclosure how I am playing things moving forward for those of you who are curious, as I said in my last video, I will be looking to sell a small part of my silver miner position around that first touch at $50. Not all of it, but part of it to secure some profits with the hope of buying it back at a lower price later. And that is just


for full transparency how I'm playing things moving forward. So alt-right, I hope that in some way answers your question about silver and the direction we should be looking in because the more we focus on the downside risk, the higher the chances are that we are going to miss out on the upside. And I am seeing far too many people making that mistake right now. especially people who didn't watch my video from last week where I explained how the 2008 metals crash was unique and why it will not


happen again. So, if you haven't seen that video, please go back and watch it because if you are waiting for a massive crash thinking 2008 is going to replay all over again and you're going to get in at a great price even though you missed this wave up, you are going to be extremely disappointed. And all I can add to that message is get on a buying schedule now if your goal is to own gold and silver because the prices, as I've illustrated in my last few videos, are going higher. So, with that said, as I


am losing my voice, I want to thank everybody for watching the entirety of this video. Please remember if you enjoyed the content to leave a like below. That helps this content reach other people who need to hear this message. And as I say at the end of all of my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. I'm on my way to take care of my voice. Have a great week ahead. Goodbye.