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 And I think about the fact that the Bay Street Research reports and the Wall Street research reports when they look at earnings are assuming a $45 silver price. If you make the stuff for 75 and deliver it into a forecast of 45, it's possible that you don't have that earning surprise. The second thing is that when uh uh old securities analysts like me do net present value calculations, we still do those things. Uh if the silver price increases from say let's call it any number you want,

40 to 80. So the silver price doubles, I if you were a producer making silver for 20 and selling it for 40, you have a $20 margin. Uh and the silver price doubles, your margins quadruple. >> [laughter] >> triple or quadruple. It's important to understand that and the valuations of the silver stocks are discounting lower silver prices. If today's silver price holds, and I think they can, the net present values that we've ascribed to those producers are unrealistically low

and we have earnings surprises. >> Welcome to Gold Silver News, your go to destination for all things economics and finance. Whether you're an experienced investor, an inquisitive student, or just someone who wants to stay ahead in today's everchanging economic landscape, you've come to the right place. I've been working on a private road map for viewers who are more focused on protecting their wealth than speculating in uncertain markets. I'll share it at the end for those interested. Now, we'll

show you the best clips of the latest interview. But first, smash the subscribe button, hit the like button, and send us super thanks if you find our daily recaps valuable. Enjoy the episode. >> The last question. Uh, I save in gold. I maintain liquidity in US dollars. Uh, we could talk later about what would cause me to sell my gold, but this price isn't one of them. As you suggest, uh, I'm a contrarian and you and I talked a couple years ago about silver being a hate trade and I bought it. I bought it

because I thought when the hate subsided that the silver price would increase. Guess what? that happened in my own portfolio. Silver represented in my portfolio a speculative asset class, not an investment class, a speculation class. And the reason that I owned it is because it was hated. And when that reason went away, the silver price went up. So last week, I sold 80% of my physical silver. Uh this is a personalized decision. It might not apply to the rest of your listeners, but I note that the internet

response to my announcement that I sold 80% of my my silver was filled with hate. So, I know I did the right thing. Uh when X is widely lined up against me, uh I know I'm correct. Now, it's instructive to note what I did with the money. Uh some of the money, a small amount, I put back into physical gold because insurance is more important than speculation. to a rich 73y old like me. Uh more than half the money, as it turns out, I put into silver equities because the silver price just has to

stay the same rather than increase for the silver equities to do better. The silver equities are discounting about 40 or $45 silver. If we're really in a period of 75 or $80 silver, the silver stocks have to pay play real catch-up. And so I believe that the silver equities are a better receptacle of my speculative capital than silver is itself. Silver just needs to maintain today's price for me to be rewarded in the silver equity. Silver needs to increase for me to be rewarded in the physical silver. And I believe I have a

durable competitive advantage relative to other investors and speculators in the silver space. 50 years of experience in analyzing silver equities. So as a speculative asset class, the silver equities are more appropriate for me personally than silver is itself. Other speculators will need to ask that question themselves as to whether it's appropriate for them. Sadly, many speculators don't know how to question themselves. Uh so they likely won't be able to attract an answer. Uh make no

mistake, I believe that the precious metals bull market and the silver market have a lot further to run. But that doesn't matter to me. Uh what matters to me is that I'm a disciplined speculator. The reason to own my silver went away and there is another asset class that fits in that part of my portfolio better. So I shifted to it. >> A little concerned about the J. I'm interested in the silver miners, not the silver morons. uh there are a whole bunch of companies that have silver in

the name on the share certificate but they don't have any silver and realistically if the price of something that you don't have goes up it shouldn't impact your underlying value but when I look at the silver producers uh when I look at say Pan-American silver which paid a very very very full price for mag a full price of $30 silver and I think about the fact that the Bay Street research reports and the Wall Street research reports when they look at earnings are assuming a $45 silver price.

If you make the stuff for 75 and deliver it into a forecast at 45, it's possible that you don't have an earning surprise. The second thing is that when uh uh old securities analysts like me do net present value calculations, we still do those things. uh if the silver price increases from say let's call it any number you want 40 to 80. So the silver price doubles I if you were a producer making silver for 20 and selling it for 40 you have a $20 margin uh and the silver price doubles your

margins quadruple triple or quadruple. It's important to understand that and the valuations of the silver stocks are discounting lower silver prices. If today's silver price holds, and I think they can, the net present values that we've ascribed to those producers are unrealistically low and we have earnings surprises. It's as simple as that. I feel good about the silver price over 10 years. I think that 2026 is probably a good year, but I don't think it's a year that repeats the performance that we got in

2025. So, I don't want a big a big bet on my part in a near-term increase in the silver price. What I want is a bet on the increase in margins and the increase in net present value on the more efficient producers or on the very very very high quality developers where uh mine construction looked fairly certain at $35 [laughter] and you go into an $80 world. Uh if you have people trading off net present values established in preliminary economic assessments at $30 silver and you rerun that same net present value

calculation [clears throat] at $50, $60, $70 or $80 numbers, the difference is stark and it's dramatic. I have all of the above. Uh I I'm in a market where I think I'm right and where I think that the underlying move is going to be fairly dramatic in terms of the big names, I tend towards beta rather than alpha. Uh I like the probability of a triple more than I like the possibility of a five bagger or a sixbagger because I like the difference between probability and possibility. Uh so

uh I added to some Wheaten uh not primarily a silver stock but still has a silver cult and still produces an awful lot of silver and the free cash flow estimates uh around wheaten are certainly understated for the increase in both the gold and the silver price. It's important to note that I own Pan-American uh because I think there's earnings leverage, but I think there's a different kind of leverage that the market has completely ignored. Uh and that is the leverage exhibited by two

undeveloped silver deposits, one in Guatemala, one in Argentina. These are each half billion ounce high-grade deposits that aren't figured into the net present value because they don't have any. They don't have any because of political constraints uh to development. The governments have paid some attention to domestic politics uh ignoring the fiscal benefits that will come to the state. Uh the state generally tries to steal somewhere between 35 and 50% uh of the economic value of a deposit

after the payback of capital. Um, that was a fairly small number in these two deposits of $20 silver. The benefits to Guatemala and Argentina from stealing, let's call it 35% of the economic benefit after a recruitment of capital are billions. And I don't believe that either government can afford to leave these two deposits unbuilt. And you get that in Pan-American for free. [laughter] Um, free is a very good price. Uh, and I'm particularly attracted to redundant assets, assets on the balance sheet that

don't contribute to current cash flow estimates, but still have residual value. uh the option value of these two deposits in Pan-American, while by no means a certainty, ignores the fact that governments who could ignore the revenue because it was small relative to the domestic political price that they'd pay for development. Uh that avoided revenue uh in both Guatemala and Argentina is just too high. I believe that there's a probability that a political accord will be f will be will be found and that

those assets will go back onto active status in that balance sheet as opposed to passive status and I get that for free. >> In the mining space, however, perception still lags reality. Many silver producers and developers are valued using conservative price assumptions that no longer reflect the macro environment. The cost frameworks, development benchmarks, and viability analyses were constructed under substantially lower silver prices. When those premises are revised, even slightly, valuation models change

dramatically. Let's return to the interview. Most people, especially undisiplined people, and this alone will generate a great deal of hate, uh cannot invest in a narrative until the price momentum of the underlying commodity has validated the narrative. Everything that is accurate about the silver narrative today at $80 was accurate at $20. The difference is that if a silver price rises from $20 to $80, uh the value of the narrative is mathematically only one quarter as significant. The coiled spring

characteristic of silver is expended. People need to understand that if your reason for owning it was mine, meaning the mitigation of hate that has occurred, am I saying that the silver price cannot reach $200? No, I'm not saying that at all. I do not care. Uh I purchased it for a specific reason. That specific reason materialized. I expect over the next 10 years the price of precious metals including silver to be not just higher but substantially higher. I have identified what is for me a more appealing way to express my

preference for the silver trade. I will tell you this uh I know how strong my timing is uh and how solid my underlying thesis is by how much hostility it attracts on X. Uh 10 years ago, I recall advocating renewed investments in the uranium sector and people were apoplelectic in their hatred. This is a failed bull market. This asset has gone nowhere. It is associated with Hiroshima, Nagasaki, ThreeMile Island. Fast forward 5 years and I disclose that I sold some of my uranium equities. What an idiot. They said the man exits a bull

market. Can you imagine anything more foolish than the uranium stocks decline and they say, "Well, the guy was front running, right?" He was. I mean, I know that if I receive 30 responses on social media and 25 are violently opposed, I am doing exactly the right thing. Uh that is the narrative I seek. Um monetary debasement. Uh we can talk about that if you want on your show. We can discuss why the purchasing power of the US dollar and other fiat currencies will decline. We can discuss why precious

metals will be the beneficiaries of that. Uh happy to have that conversation. I believe it to be true probably after 55 years in those markets. I understand it more fully than many of the supposed geniuses on X. Um happy to do that. Let me introduce some additional points though. Uh let's bring in a little history just for perspective. As you can tell from my image, uh I have lived it. In the decade of the 1970s, the US dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power. Not coincidentally, during that same decade,

the gold price rose from $35 to $850. There is a a correlation between the erosion of the purchasing power of the US dollar and importantly real interest rates in fiat currencies and the response of the gold price. Uh that is the good news because I suspect that over the next 10 years we will witness another 75% deterioration in the purchasing power of the US dollar. I say good news cautiously and that should drive continued increases in the gold price. But there are a couple of things you need to understand. While I believe

that in very broad terms, the nominal price of gold, the dollar gold quotation rises inversely to the deterioration of the purchasing power of the US dollar. What I guarantee is volatility. Uh we will experience in the next 10 years at least one probably two 30% or 35% declines in the gold price. We experienced three of them during the 1970s. But the other thing that people must consider is the possibility of a real decline. Uh I remember clearly uh between 1970 and 1975 the gold price climbed from $35 to $200 an ounce, a

six-fold increase. And because of that rise, a large number of people who did not want to own gold and did not know about it at $35 or $50 became enamored with it at $200. Right? Enamored. Uh the price action validated the narrative. In 1975, Congress and the Fed raised US interest rates and the gold price fell by half. It dropped from $200 to $100 an ounce. Many of the people who loved it at $200 despised it at $100, pardon me, when it was half as expensive. They wish they had never learned to spell gold, a

four-letter word. And they were shaken out. And after they were shaken out, the gold price ran from $100 to $850. History is to some extent a guide. The people who are most uniform uh in their affection for a narrative that has only recently been validated will be the first to be shaken out when price action undermines their faith in that narrative. Um, fortunately, I'm an old man. Uh, I will remain in the trade to some degree until the reasons underlying the trade disappear. Uh you use the term

undervalued. Uh and I believe that is the core issue. I I I I was influenced by the same thinking as you. Uh meaning that if a stock price doubled, I believed it was half as expensive. The question is why did it double? What I do, Jesse, and I would encourage you to do likewise, is every time I make an investment, I write myself a one and a half to two-page memo explaining why I made the investment, what I believe the liquidation value is, what the investment thesis is, what the risks are, and what would cause me to sell. In

the case of Wheaten and precious metals, uh although the share price has performed well over the past year and a half at current commodity prices, uh the net present value of the underlying free cash flow, instead of using a $2,200 gold base, instead using a $4,500 gold base, suggests that the relationship between price and value, which is where money is made, it is earned in the gap between price and value, indicates that Wheaton is trading for less than it did before the share price doubled. In the

case of Wheaten, the market also makes an assumption that I believe is incorrect. The market uh the Bay Street and Wall Street analysts argue that the era of large streaming deployments is over that the major deals have already been completed and I think that is precisely wrong. I believe the major deals lie ahead. For this reason, uh, gold and especially silver streams, uh, that originate from base metal mines are more valuable as silver streams than as base metal cash flows. The silver stream

multiple is 15. The copper multiple is six. So, if you extract that revenue from a copper producer and place it into a silver producer, it becomes worth three times as much. Stay with me a bit longer and I will get you there. Uh the copper industry uh in London has indicated that the copper mining sector must invest $250 billion over the next 10 years to maintain current copper production levels which are already in deficit. They also state the demand will grow at 2.5% compounded annually for 10

years. The issue is that the copper industry does not possess $250 billion and inflation is increasing that initial estimate literally every month. What I believe we will see is that very large copper deposits uh will raise part of the capital needed to construct the copper mine by selling silver streams uh and that these financings will occur in billion and two billion dollar trenches independently. I believe we are entering a merger and acquisition cycle. Uh and I think a significant use of capital will

be in mergers and acquisitions. If your priority right now is not chasing returns but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below.