gold news

 [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is David fley editor and founder of Junior minor junkie thank you so much for being here great to have you great to see you again Char thanks again for having me on always always nice talking to you yeah really good to be kicking off the year with you this is one of my first interviews of 202 2 so of course we're going to take a look forward at what's going to be happening but before we go there I thought we could take a look

back at 2024 our last conversation was all the way back in April 2024 so not too long after gold started its big price rise for last year so looking back at 2024 any takeaways you would share with with the audience yeah I mean gold had a great year right I mean up over 27% um silver at the heading into the year end heading into the last month silver was up even more than gold it was outperforming just about every major index as well and then we had a sharp correction in the silver price where where it ended up I think around 22%

still still a pretty nice game but um as far as uh gold stocks and silver are concern they continue to lag um you know they didn't provide that two to 2.5 times Leverage The Gold stocks I'm talking about didn't really provide that leverage to Gold that they normally do when we have uh strong move moves in in the gold price and uh that was basically I the reason for that was was basically I think the the main missing missing ingredient is Western investor interest um you know they're they they continued

to be um distracted by you know all the money they were making in in Ai and crypto I mean that's really taken away um the interest of the gold stocks and also the the also the the the um the cost for the miners you know we had um we had the gold price run up 54% from October 2023 to October 2024 last year you know nearly a thousand gain but the but the gold stocks started to roll over about three weeks before that peak in the gold price because Newmont came out and surprised the market to the downside

with its costs I mean it's you know they're they're all in sustaining costs labor cost um you know they're still working through that merger with with newrest and you know they're the bellweather they're the they're the biggest gold stock and and they're the stock that that you know your your generalist funds look at if they want to get into the gold space they look at what numan's doing so when numont came out and shocked the market with their costs that took um the miners down I mean the

miners had a had a nice run with the gold price but like I said they didn't really provide the the big leverage that they usually do I think the gdf X and the gdxj went up around 80 80% from their lows in in February of 2024 and then they corrected over 20 they've corrected over 20% now uh up from from that move and I think at the end of the year you know you had the Gold stock I mean the the the market was still doing well you know Bitcoin was doing really well and um you had so so you had investors take their profits

what investors were in Gold stocks they took their profits and then the ones that were down on their on their gold stocks they sold for tax loss at the end of the year which makes it made it worse but it what made it worse for for the holders but if you had cash and you were and you were waiting to get into the sector um you know that then this is a really good time because basically now you have the stock market creating it looks like looks to me as it's creating a huge top you know we've had the the

Trump rally the the Trump rally has now been distinguished in in the Dow you've got a Head and Shoulders top on the S&P and look at Bitcoin is creating it looks like it's creating a huge top to me and you had something called fcoin which went up what from two cents to to to like a130 it went from nothing to a a$ 1.5 billion dollar market cap in in this in the stretch of like two months and now it's corrected 50% so you know the the the the the the crypto Curr currency that everybody knows is worth nothing

that everybody's just hoping that a greater fool pays more for it than they did it's it's finally corrected it's half its value now and like I said the the Bitcoin it looks like it's creating a huge top so that's what we need we need to get that inv you know generalist investor interest back into this sector I mean they left in 2012 2013 and they haven't returned so that's created this this incredible opportunity in Gold stocks and especially in juniors you know we've got a lot of them that are

that are bioca higher and doing well but most of them still are are are are are under owned and definitely being ignored by by the generalist investor okay okay we've got a lot of topics that we should definitely follow up there it sounds like okay for these Western investors to have that interest return we need to see better results from the gold producers so it sounds like we should be watching for the 2024 results to come and especially from Newmont so what will you be looking for there and do you think

this is the quarter when when they come through yeah I think so because like I said you know they're they're still working through that new Crest merger you know they're they're they're concentrating on their on their higher margin at their top tier assets they they've sold uh several projects they they've built up more cash they're they're they're buying back shares uh they're paying down debt um they're doing all the right things um and in the in in Q4 the gold price went off was

almost $200 higher than it was in Q3 so newmont's Newmont is usually kicks off off the earning season for the miners and that'll be toward the end of February I think it's February 20th when they announce their earnings and if if you take a look at the gold price like I said you had you know you had a 54% move in the gold price in a year um and it never corrected as much as 5% in that time so now we've had a finally had a 10% correction in the gold price which is healthy I mean got you got extreme

overbought it got ahead of itself but it broke out of a 13-year cup and handle base I mean that's huge that's that's a hugely Tech huge technical breakout so that was the reason why we had such a huge move but now it's doing this consolidation it's consolidating in something called a symmetrical triangle and these symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns of the trend that that that the commodity is in and gold is definitely in a bull market I mean it's broken out in euros and Canadian

dollars you know in in Japanese Yen it's it's continued to make these all-time highs so the gold price in US dollar is now is now in this healthy you know symmetrical consolidation triangle between and and um 1 2750 is is is is the resistance it has to has to close above on a weekly basis and then 2600 is is the uptrend line resistance so it's making it's currently making lower highs and higher lows inside this triangle and it's just waiting for the proper Catalyst to to break out of this

triangle um could it be the the first uh fed meeting um of the year at the end of the month uh could it be you know more um you know uh geopolitical um you know I mean more unrest around um you know the president Trump's um inauguration on January 20th I mean I mean we've already had extreme volatility to begin the year and chaos and volatility is pretty much going to probably going to be the name of the game this year because this is a very unpredictable and chaotic president so um you know the gold price is reflecting

that I mean the the 10-year yield I mean the Federal Reserve is has lowered a full basis point yet the 10year yield has gone up a full basis point while they while they're doing it the bond Market's calling the feds Bluff saying we know you're trapped we know there's a debt situ an untenable debt situation it's a sovereign debt crisis that is that is starting now and that's what the bond market is telling us and and that's really bad for the stock market but it's

but it's good for gold and and like I said it I think that's that's going to be the trigger that we'll get these Western investors finally back into this sector yeah I think so you've listed quite a number of factors that could be important for gold in 2025 especially in in the near term here would you what would you rank as the top factor that you are watching right now or or do you see them all as equally important oh I mean there's so many I mean I didn't even mention that the China you know

technically back into the in into the gold market I think they never left they they just announced what they want to announce so second consecutive month now after being absent for six months so central banks are going to keep buying you know after the after the after the US removed R Russia from Swift you know all these eastern central banks was said well we we better start buying gold and you know we you've got um the two largest uh former buyers of US debt which was China and Japan they're now

the two biggest Sellers and not only that but China is using their they're um uh they're using the the money that they're making from from selling the US debt and and they're buying gold with it so um that and and you have you still have Russia Ukraine situation you still have Israel against everybody else in the Middle East um you've got you you got your situation in Canada now um with the GE you know the political situation on top of you know right after Trump was was announced uh that he won the the

presidency you know the the German government came under chaos then the French government I mean there's just so much um so much wi behind uh the sales of of of the gold price but um you know I think the biggest thing is the debt the US debt situation it's it's it's untenable and um the bond market knows it and um as far as the dollar is concerned the higher it goes all that Emerging Market debt that is denominated in US Dollars I mean you're going to you're already seeing you've already

you're already seeing a recession in the UK in the EU um I think I think president Trump is sleepwalking into a stagflationary recession and he's only going to make it worse with with this tarff these tariff policies so um it's only a matter of time uh before the the the dollar goes higher I mean the the the uh gold price goes higher and I I accidentally said the dollar because the dollar is going up and gold is going up right along with it I mean you've ever since Trump won the presidency you know

the dollar is up 6% and during that time that the gold price went up a nearly $1,000 um you know the gold the dollar was up 10% while gold was up 37% so gold is rising with the US dollar now as well so I mean it's got all this wind and it's and it's back so um we just need to get like I said we need to get this it's if you take a look at the silver price and you take a look at um these um these uh gold ETF charts they look the same right GDX dxj silver they all look the same so that's because if you take a

look at the gold price you know um central banks are buying gold um you've got um uh Asians are buying gold um but Western investors are not it's the key ingredient that's what it's missing so we need to see the gold silver ratio you know it's been fluctuating between 80 and 90 it needs to get down below 75 to one uh and that's I think that's when you're really going to see the the the gold stocks take off because that's that's where the Leverage is that's

where the big Leverage is in the in in the silver price and the gold stocks right and you kind of even idea of where you see the gold price going what are your thoughts on the silver price as we're heading forward in mind what you said about gold yeah like I said earlier you know you had gold break out of that huge uh 13-year cup and handle I mean that in technical analysis that a breakout of a cup and handle and and the longer it is the bigger the base the bigger the move so if you take a look at

uh gold stocks um the GDX ran up to Major resistance around 40 42 right and um that's that's fouryear resistance so that's that that's a cup that's that that that now is formed in the GDX and and if you take a look at um and now that handle is being formed I believe now we've had that 20% correction that I that I spoke on I think it's corrected 23% um excuse me and then if you take a look at the uh the silver price it's got a 50-year cup and handle so and and the

handle now is is is is needs to needs to get back up to 50 and um I think but there's major resistance at 35 and silver we need to Silver needs to get above there first but right now it's it's testing support at 30 at 2930 it's is that support is getting stronger and stronger and um you know silver is has become more of an industrial metal since back when it was trading at $50 an ounce before I think it was around 6040 where it was investment 60 and and Industrial demand 40 I think that's flipped now I

think it's more of an industrial metal so um you know and it's and solar now is taking the taking the place of what what photography was before to Silver I think now it's silver uh it's uh solar and AI as well so you know there's there's more and more applications for silver and the and the silver deficit continues to grow you know I think this will be the fifth year of of a silver of of a deficit in silver and it's such a tiny market right I mean that I mean that move in fart

goinging was crazy you know it it went up so much so fast in in in you know something that is that everybody knows is worthless it it it Rose so much that it was worth more than the entire uh silver mining SE the entire silver mining uh sector really quickly so you know I mean this this like I said this this sector is so tiny you know if you if you wanted new comparisons I mean if you take a look at Nvidia now that that that looks like it's formed a double top and um you know that's that's the stock

that everybody owned that's this that's the stock that everybody was watching uh for as far as uh the AI barometer and uh you know if you look at these other these other uh Magnificent Seven stocks that they look like they're forming tops as well I mean these things have had a huge huge run so it's starting to look like hey the we were just waiting for what was the pin that's going to be to to pop the the uh the AI bubble you know we it's it's it's kind of like the the

dotcom bubble right and when the dotcom Bubble Burst the the mining sector was kind of in the same place right it was under owned it was forgotten it was depressed it was the the the stocks in relation to the gold price were ridiculously cheap and you know that's the same situation now as far as uh the sector is concerned so you know I just think it shaping up to be this is going to be the year of of the of the reversion to the mean and not only the the the gold stocks to the gold price but the silver price as well in relation

to gold and um it it just looks like it's it's shaping up that way because you know we've had a couple years now where the the the Juniors especially have been so uh under owned and forgotten and um if you take a look a good barometer for that is the is the uh the TSX Venture Exchange right you've got this huge base now is is inverse Head and Shoulders base now where the neckline is around 620 640 right around there it shot up to there on the last day of trading last week and of last day

of tax loss selling um last year a couple weeks ago because you know that's that's usually what uh you know what speculators are left in this sector they they take a look at tax loss selling and they look at the at the quality issues that are being sold for tax loss and then the last day of tax loss selling they'll they'll they they they'll take a punt on some of these stocks and it and it really popped the The Venture back up to that neckline so if we see the if we see the TX Venture finally get some

volume I mean the volume in the Venture is the lowest it's been ever since its Inception in 1999 that's how that's how uh forgotten the sector is so if we start to see some volume in the Venture and it gets back above 640 6 640 and start to move higher that's when you're really going to start to see these these Juniors take off the quality issues I mean you got to be in the right ones because there's there's a lot of crap out there and that needs to go away and it still hasn't so um you know it's it's

those companies that aren't getting funded they're they're they're doing these small raises they're able to keep the lights on but it's not enough to get you know to get them really where they want to be as far as their projects are concerned so you just got to be in the right ones yeah I was going to ask you if you're now taking a look at the Juniors because I remember when we talked before you were more interested in kind of the intermediate stage companies maybe even the small producers

so are you now starting to take a look at the Juniors and get involved there a bit more well as far as early stage Juniors no um I'm still avoiding that's that's that's SE I mean I've got in in the portfolio I cover two companies that are paa stage um you know I don't touch anything that doesn't have a defined resource um you know these drill plays they're they're extremely risky and the time to speculate in junior drill plays is when the sector's in a bull market

and the junior sector has not been in a bull market for for quite some time now so you want to make sure you but but that is a good thing is as far as if you want to invest in juniors that have that have the gold in the ground their late stage they're drisking these projects they're they're run by these fairly successful management teams and that's the great thing about what happened in December um there was a company that that I've been following for a while and um uh a serly successful uh company

Builder and entrepreneur um started to to build this came into this company and started to started to accumulate a large position and I was able to point out to to my subscribers you know this is It's times like this where you can get into a company like this uh below the cost of the serly successful um company Builders and Mining entrepreneurs you know they've made they've made themselves very wealthy and and investors that follow you know that invest along with them um and uh I pointed out to my

subscribers hey we can we could buy this stock NOW 35% less than what than what this person has been accumulating shares at and he's growing this company and he and this company now with him involved has access to Capital they've got two late stage fantastic projects in you know in in a top tier jurisdiction so you that's this is when you can get deals like this and you just you have to have cash and you have to have patient you can't expect to to you know you know uh buy a full position right away and

then next week be up 100% it doesn't work that way in this sector you have to have a lot of patience and you have to do a lot of due diligence and that's that's what I do for my subscribers you know I I do all the work I do all the due diligence I keep up with the management teams I I I create strong relationships with the management team so I so I could get the news out to my subscribers right away on what's going on with these with these companies yeah and I think that gives us a bit of an

idea of the stage of companies that you looking at right now I think usually we talk about gold and silver but are you looking at companies in other sectors as well how are you feeling about that um as well as far as my newsletter is concerned I mean there's copper as well I have uh a couple of copper plays um I've got several copper plays on my watch list I mean I've got what I do is I have 20 companies that I'm invested in and uh my subscribers kind of look over my shoulder and and see what I'm doing

and um you know when when I when I do all this due diligence on a company before I before I make the investment I do a a detailed report and I send it out on this company that I'm talking about I sent it out to my subscribers uh last Monday and then we all you know pretty much try to get and do it at the same time and um as far as I have a I don't invest in any more than 20 companies in the portfolio and what happened was a company that that I was invested in got taken over and uh was able to use the

cash to to get into something else and um what I do is I have I also have a watch list of 20 other companies that that I've that I've vetted that I've prev vetted and um I'll take a look at at that when I know I'm I'm about to uh when I'm about to uh recommend a new stock to to my subscribers what I'll do is I'll go through through my my top 20 and I'll look at the companies that I think have the best upside and um I start to do my due diligence I I I arrange one-on-one

meetings with with the management teams and then I sort out which which of the companies I'm I'm going to purchase and recommend to my subscribers and it's worked really well that way so they see this watch list all the time um it's updated in my uh Weekly Newsletter so they they get they have a general idea of what I'm gonna going to recommend you know before I recommend it when I tell them hey I'm I'm I'm getting down to where uh you know I about to choose the company I'm I'm going to recommend and

I'll be sending you a detailed report before I do that so you know it's very methodical you know it's very upfront it's very transparent and um you know that's basically what um I demand from the companies that I'm investing in full transparency so um you know I would expect no less from my subscribers demanding the same from me yeah really interesting I think to take a look at the mechanics there and understand how it works for you and so you mentioned that one of your picks was taken over

and we have seen I think a good amount of m&a activity in gold and silver space this past year do you see that continuing in 2025 and what do you think of the deals that we've been seeing do they make sense to you what do you thinking and expecting yeah I do but some of the deals at the end of the year last year were take unders they weren't takeovers meaning um the most of the most of the uh of the investors especially the Legacy investors they they they they lost money on their investment and um they didn't get um you

know the the leverage that that they were expecting when they in when they invested in the company to begin with the company that was taken over for me was 03 Mining and it was a take under I mean my subscribers and I did make money but my criteria before I get into a junior is it has to have at least three times leverage right these things are super risky so you know you want to make sure that um you're going to get rewarded on the upside if you're taking a big risk in the in in these stocks and

uh you know you know unfortunately we didn't make much money but at least we didn't lose money on this position um so was able to rotate it into something else but there was there were several uh other deals that were that I would un that that I would uh characterize as take unders I mean we we want to see takeovers you know we want to see companies that um that that are that are taken out at least at or near their all-time high preferably much higher than their all-time high and that hasn't

been that has been taking place in this sector uh for for the last several years I mean there's been more take unders than takeovers um and some of that a lot of that is is has been due to the fact that uh you know inflation is really made these cost really difficult for for these companies so you know and for that reason you know there's there's really no there's really I have really no interest in taking a chance on a discovery play I mean why why take a chance on on a company that's looking

for gold when you've got all these companies that have already found a lot of gold and um the gold that they that they found is trading it you know on average less than $40 an ounce in the ground and in some cases less than $5 an ounce on the ground okay yeah I think that makes a lot of sense and do you have any other advice for gold and silver investors in particular in 2025 when they're trying to figure out where they should put their money because I think a lot of people are kind of wondering all right when are we going to

see these big gains what should I do yes I mean well the first thing you do if if you're just getting into the sector you're getting your feet wet is you take you you put some of your cash into the big boys you know you don't I I wouldn't advise investing in juniors uh if you're just getting into this sector you know you want to get into your ago Eagles you know your um your your your Franco Nevadas your Royal Golds your wheat and precious metal I mean um these are the companies that are that are solid

they're they're they're making solid cash flow they're they're uh they're paying decent dividends um so you know when I got into this sector 20 years ago um miners paying dividends was just like what it just didn't happen they they weren't paying any dividends at all um and their balance sheets weren't really that good I mean they came into the the bull market where their they their balance sheets were you know were question able and now that's flipped they're they're

paying dividends and the good and and the their their balance sheets are very strong I've never seen Sounder balance sheets in mining in in mining companies that that you're that they're showing right now and they're paying Def and they're paying some dividends but um as far as juniors are concerned you know and if but if you do want to if you do want to uh dabble in the junior space you have to be in the right companies and to be in the right companies I I strongly recommend

um investing in a newsletter you know I mean there's not only just mine but there's several others um but again that's another thing you have to make sure that you do you have to make sure you get into the right newsletter also I mean it's it's a you know it's it's it's it's high risk High reward so you know you have to do a lot of due diligence be before you get into the into the newsletter also you know you do your due diligence before you get into a junior

you got to do your due diligence before you get into a newsletter too because you want to make sure that that newsletter writer is basically um you know on board with with you like you know like when you when you when you when you do your due diligence for a junior you want to make sure that the management is aligned with shareholders by having a lot of skin in the game they have a lot of their money in in the company they're taking place in all the private placements you know they don't

have just a bunch of cheap paper or or a bunch of options they've got their money in in the stock so you know you want to do that with with a newsletter writer also you know are are they taking a chance right along with you and um that's that's basically what I do you know I'm um uh I don't take any money from companies uh I don't take any money from Kito the articles that I write for Kitco um you know I'm pretty much investing my own money in these companies and um I want to make sure

that not only I make money but I definitely want to make sure my subscribers make money so so it's you know it's it's it's a very Risky Business uh but it's but as far as the upside is concerned um the the the risk to the upside now is greater than the downside in a lot of these companies but like I said if you if you're in the wrong companies they're just going to sit there while the while the sector takes off because this time I don't think it's going to be a rising tide

that lifts all boats um you know usually you know we have that we have that AA moment in this sector Capital Market windows open and stocks start to fly excuse me and the rising tide lifts all boats I don't think that's going to happen this time I think the the investors have gotten a lot smarter and the main thing is capital has got a lot more expensive so these banks are you know they're not just giving money to anybody now and and you know private investors aren't just giving money to

anybody now um they're doing their they're they're doing their due diligence make sure they want to get in they get they the money to the right people and you know with the cost of capital not being cheap anymore um you know that's that I think that's that's the reason why we're not going to see the arising tide listening list lifting all the junior boats this time which is the way it should be um you know um good companies should be rewarded and the companies that are basically lifestyle

companies need to go away yeah I think I think that's probably going to be my most important takeaway here it's something that I've kind of been realizing I think especially throughout last year that Rising TI it's not going to lift everybody I've been sitting here kind of feeling like this is not what I was told a gold bull market would be like and that kind of helps explain it exactly yeah yeah yeah so that really helps me a lot anything else I think we've summed it up quite well but any

final parting thoughts you would leave investors with as we head toward the new year yeah just be very careful this year in this market build up some cash have some physical gold have some junk silver just in case you know you know and personally you know uh as far as my investments are concerned you know I you know I I have a larger cash position I've never had a a cash position this large before um because I'm really concerned about the volatility and the chaos that I think 2025 is GNA bring

okay I think that's also an important detail to to note there so thank you so much for coming on to talk and hopefully we'll have you back again soon to go over what's happening this is really good absolutely anytime always a pleasure and nice to talk to you of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and this is David earthley with Junior minor junkie thank you for watching if you like this video make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our Channel

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