Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And it's only been a week since the US military was used to capture Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro. But it seems the entire world has been turned upside down since with mass protests happening right now in Iran that threaten the leaders of that country. plenty of unanswered questions about the futures of Venezuela and Greenland that have far-reaching consequences on the value of the US dollar and global commodity markets as well as news warning of massive selling


pressure on metals due to the Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing. So in this video I want to make sense of what is happening right now by giving you all an update about price development for gold and silver. how the Bloomberg commodity index rebalancing impacts this and what major indicators I've mentioned in recent videos are telling us about what to expect for gold and silver in the first half of 2026. Once that's covered, I want to talk about the US dollar and oil and why recent developments should


be something all gold and silver stackers pay careful attention to. Now, just before we dive in, please check out summitmetals.com for great prices on gold American Eagles and 1oz Krueger, which are less than $100 above spot as I'm recording this video. And while you're there, if you're new to Summit Metals because you want to support the work I do here on YouTube, remember that new customers get 5 ounces of silver at spot. And I'll leave the link to this in the video description below. So, jumping


in another week, another story about why this is the top of the precious metals market, why huge selling pressure is right around the corner and why you need to exit precious metals now before you lose it all. And of course, I am referring to the countless stories being put out by the mainstream financial media about the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing, which has happened every year, listen to this, since 1999. Yet, most people weren't aware of it until the big banks could use it as a


way to scare normal people away from buying physical gold and silver. Now, the reason they don't want regular people owning physical metals should be obvious by now, but if it isn't, every dollar, euro, yen, and peso used to buy physical gold, and silver is money they don't get to control, and money they can't charge you an annual management fee on. And when you factor in shortages of physical metals combined with major bets some of these banks have placed against precious metals, specifically


silver, it tells us this rebalancing story is more of a mainstream scare tactic with only very minor and short-term implications. Because if we take a look at how gold and silver prices are behaving using the indexing exercise that many of you have asked me to continue updating after we made incredible new highs on December 26th, 2025, silver price has closed above the December 26th level on two separate occasions, behaving much differently than when it topped out in 1980 and 2011, with this past Friday not only


setting a new weekly record close for silver, beating the December 26th high, but also showing us that the high we experienced in late December is still not a top for silver as price in 1980 and 2011 in the nine trading days following the highs, which is how many trading days have passed since December 26th had already gone down more than 25% in both cases, giving us a clear sign that what we're seeing here is a challenge for silver price to move higher. higher and again not a market top. Now in the case of gold which I


last presented in this way on January 2nd and said it was too early to make a decisive call on looking at the extra data points we have today. It is starting to look a lot like October 2025 with price holding up very well relative to the high. Much stronger in fact than what we saw in 1980 where gold price had already declined 16% versus the high in the nine trading days after making it and still slightly stronger than 2011 which really started to reverse in the 15th trading day after making the high.


So although this is an indicator to keep an eye on considering the strong fundamentals for gold which we will cover in a moment, this looks more like price consolidation at new highs before the next move up than it does a top before a big move down. Now moving on to those fundamental specific signs that I've been looking out for and have told you all to remain aware of. If we look at silver price backwardation, which is when buyers are willing to pay more for silver now at spot price than they are


in the future, you can see the major $2 difference in spot price versus futures price has declined significantly. And what this tells me is although the physical market remains extremely tight as we know there isn't enough silver to satisfy everyone's needs at current prices, a lot of the speculation that was present in the market on December 26th was flushed out when price fell back to around $72 an ounce. And that's a very good thing for people looking for higher silver prices because this


indicator along with short sales volume on PSLV which shows bets against the price of the physical silver ETF which have fallen 71% since the December 31st, 2025 spike. behind you. This tells me that it's real market participants and buyers who need silver that have driven the move from $72 back to $80 an ounce. And although things are a bit too unpredictable to tell you exactly when the next move up will happen, don't forget my video where I spoke about a big move happening by April 2026.


Because even though we got the big move up in December that I talked about after the video warning you about April, I still see another move coming around that time, meaning around April or May. And it will be from an even higher base than I had anticipated and could finally send silver to my $99 per ounce target. After which I'll take another look at what's happening on the market and revise the target likely in the upward direction. So, with the fundamentals for silver indicating more moves up in price


very soon, what about gold? Well, in my last video, I told you all to pay close attention to central bank buying because despite major moves coming for the price of gold driven by the potential introduction of the 6020 portfolio, which will presumably see many investors sell half of their bonds and move that money into gold, it's still central banks that are setting the stage for more sustainable moves up in the price of gold. But with many news outlets reporting on falling gold purchases by central banks, monitoring


what they are doing and understanding it in the proper way is important in assessing the risk that falling central bank purchases will have on the direction of gold price in 2026. Because as was the case with the mainstream media planting fear in the minds of metal stackers with the Bloomberg rebalancing story, the narrative of central bank gold buying hitting a wall is deliberately being taken out of context to discourage people from buying gold. And why I say that is because although it's true that the amount of


gold central banks are buying has decreased versus the 2022 highs, what they're not telling you in the mainstream media is that the US dollar value of central bank purchases remains at all-time highs with the 220 metric tons of gold purchased by central banks in the third quarter of 2025 costing them approximately 25 billion. ion, which is exactly how much they spent on the 457 metric tonses of gold they bought in the record setting third quarter of 2022. So although the amount of gold these banks


are buying is going down when measured in weight, when measured in metric tons, the US dollars spent and moved into gold remains at record levels. And considering the fact that October and November, now that we have the November data, were the months where central banks bought the most gold in 2025 with October being number one and November being number two. It can easily be argued that central bank gold purchases are going up right now. Adding credibility to the argument I made back in April 2025 when I said the current


trend of central bank gold buying could easily last another 13 years as banks still have a long way to go to rebalance their reserves away from the US dollar which has neutrality issues and is rapidly devaluing and move that money back into gold which doesn't suffer from either of those problems and is poised along with silver to make new highs in the first half of 2026. And that's despite what the mainstream media is saying about gold and silver. Because as Metallica sang in their hit song, Master


of Puppets, the Master of Puppets is pulling the strings, twisting your mind, and smashing your dreams. And although it's just a song, I think it speaks a real truth about what's happening in the precious metals market right now with respect to real efforts being made to keep people out of physical gold and silver. Now, just before we get to the topic of oil versus gold and silver, please remember that if you've decided to sell some of your gold or silver because you're worried about a pullback


or you've just wanted to sell some because it's gone up so much, please consider converting some of that cash into other hard assets like land, which you can buy easily and affordably from channel partner landofland.com. Because with the Trump administration potentially banning large investment firms from buying single family homes, they may turn to buying land which they can develop as a way to get around this potential new legislation, driving prices up. But whether that comes to fruition or not, owning land you can


build on, hunt on, stand on, or camp on is a great hard asset to own. And with lots starting right around $1,000, Land of Land can help you find something that suits your needs and budget. And if you call them at the number on the screen, they can even help guide you in the process. They accept credit cards for payment and they deliver the title deed to you quickly. So check out landofland.com or again call them at the number on the screen and get something in your portfolio that the Federal Reserve cannot print. So moving on to


this video's viewer question and it's two questions. One that comes from Novars 777 and another one that comes from Sarah Santiano. Hello to you both. I hope you're watching this video. They ask about the impact the USA controlling Venezuelan oil will have on the US dollar, which ultimately obviously has implications on gold and silver, and whether or not I'm too early in buying oil stocks due to the large amount of oil on the market right now and long period of time needed to redevelop the


Venezuelan oil industry. So jumping in, we're often told that the US dollar derives its strength from oil because after Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, the United States moved to the petro dollar in 1974 by convincing Saudi Arabia to accept only US dollars in exchange for its oil in exchange for US military protection. And although it is true that the US dollar derives a lot of its strength from that deal and that it temporarily caused a pullback in the price of gold as it stabilized the US


dollar in the fallout of the 1971 decision to end the gold standard. The truth is it was only temporary and the $140 per ounce price level that gold stabilized around immediately following the petro dollar deal didn't last long and has never been revisited since. Because ultimately it's the supply of US dollars which is hitting record highs as I'm making this video right now that dictates the value of it. And although control of Venezuelan oil can help maintain its use in global currency


transactions, the US dollar today, according to the BIS, which is the Bank of International Settlements, is already used on at least one side of 89% of global currency transactions, telling us that even if the US dollar sticks around for longer than some of us think it will, the rate at which it's devaluing is ultimately what's driving metals prices up. and all commodities prices higher. In fact, as all the world's major countries devalue their currencies simultaneously to support their


weakening economies, which I've said we are in a global recession and we have been in a global recession, although it hasn't been announced since probably about 2023. So this development with respect to Venezuelan oil and the US dollar shouldn't make us bullish on the dollar and bearish on metals because it actually really doesn't change that much. Now, when it comes to the question of whether it's too early to buy oil stocks or not, considering how long it's going to take Venezuelan oil


infrastructure to be fixed, I think some people, including Jim Kramer, who said not to buy oil stocks this past week, don't fully understand that it's not just the price of oil that dictates the value of these stocks. Because as you can see here, using the Vanguard Energy ETF, which is like the GDX for oil and energy companies, they own all of the the major oil and energy companies within this fund. The value of these stocks as represented by this ETF hasn't changed much at all from the time oil


was above $100 a barrel to today where it's below $60 per barrel. Which tells me that any reversal in the price of oil over the next few years, which is always, by the way, how you should be positioned. be positioned for what will be not just what is happening today will have major upside value implications for these stocks. And the reason I have to believe that a reversal is going to happen in the price of oil is because putting the dollar value of oil to the side for a moment. When priced in gold


and silver, oil has never been cheaper since 1946 than it is today. with 1 ounce of gold buying you 78 barrels of crude oil at average 2026 prices versus its average of 46 barrels in 2020 when the price of oil momentarily went to zero. And when we look at oil priced in silver, 1 ounce of silver shockingly buys nearly 1 and a half barrels of oil at average 2026 prices, which is three times more than in 2020 when again the price of oil momentarily went to zero. So in the midst of a global resource war and


commodities super cycle where commodities are revaluing themselves relative to fiat currencies they are priced in at some point oil will have to reestablish an equilibrium against gold and silver. And since I don't think gold and silver are going down and we're already seeing many other commodities like platinum and copper making strong moves up as they repric themselves in fiat currencies. My assumption is that oil will follow this trend in commodities as new money entering the global economy inflates another bubble


and people seeking passive income leave the bond market not only for gold, which I've already said they will leave the bond market for gold, but also for dividend paying energy stocks, many of which are still yielding 4% and more in dividends despite the drop in oil price since 2022. At the same time, by the way, money market accounts and certificates of deposit pay well less than 4% with real negative interest rates, which I've warned you all about in several of my recent videos, make a


comeback in 2026. Real negative interest rates, which is the interest rate minus the CPI, inflation rate is going below zero in 2026. That is what I anticipate. That is what the trend here on this chart shows. And that is something that not only coincided with a major move up in gold and silver prices in 2002, which is a specific market environment we saw for the first time since 1980 when it happened again in 2002. That coincided, as I've said, with a major bull market for gold and silver as people fled the


US dollar in favor of precious metals. But this event also triggered a massive rally in the price of oil, which moved up six years in a row following the return to real negative interest rates as commodities of all kinds revalued themselves around a devaluing US dollar. And although it's already started, my assumption is that like in the case with silver and in years past, oil is simply lagging behind. And all of this explains perfectly well why Black Rockck, which I mentioned to you all near the end of


last year. And now Ray Dallio are moving into metals, miners, and these dividend paying energy stocks while avoiding bonds and reducing their US dollar cash positions. And as we wrap things up in this video, I just want to remind you all that this is also moving into these dividend paying energy stocks a convenient way to hedge your mining stock position if you own some mining stocks as rising oil prices pose the largest threat to mining company margins since so much of their cost structure depends on the price of oil. which means


even if I am a bit early to oil stocks, I I'm not actually trading any contracts of oil. I'm only really owning these um dividend paying oil stocks. And it could be possible that I am a bit early to them. But even if I am, my metals and mining stock positions will be enough to deliver great gains over the short term while I collect again huge dividends from the oil stocks and wait for oil price to readjust as I expect it to do. So with that said, I hope I've answered all of the questions you may have with


respect to metals, miners, as well as oil stocks in this video. If you enjoyed this content, please let me know below. And if you would like me to continue from time to time speaking about oil, oil price and oil stocks, also let me know in the comments section below as I want to deliver content that is relevant to you all. And if this topic of oil isn't relevant to you, I need you all to let me know in the comments section right now. So with that said, I'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead.


Please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. Leave a like below and share this content with other people if you think other people need to hear this message. And I'll see you in the next video.