thank you I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing News Network and here today with me is Chris vermeulen Chief Market strategist at thetechnacletraders.com thank you so much for joining me today it's great to see you I had great to see you Charlotte thanks for having me back have you here online we have so much to talk about right now I think and where I want to start is of course with the gold price so we had the Federal Reserve High crates Yesterday by 25 basis points it really seemed to light a fire under gold
it was at all-time highs or near all-time highs depending on who you're asking and where you're looking and I want to start by looking at gold in the short term but move on to the long term but what do you see coming for the gold price just in the short term yeah well let me let me share my chart real quick and I'll kind of give you my my high level view here of what uh I'm kind of seeing in the the gold market so obviously this this is the daily chart of gold which you should be able to see
there and I mean we've had a really good pop in the last uh three days kind of leading up to the fed and the FED wanting to cut rates uh or slow down rates here and uh we're seeing a big pop now the big the big thing here is if we look at the monthly chart of gold and this is this is what I like to look at because we're in the middle of what I what I think is a very big super cycle that started in 2019 uh when we broke out of this multi-year kind of basing stage of stage one and this is nothing
more than a big bull flag a big consolidation over the last couple of years since 2020 uh you know and we're going to go a whole lot higher this is a a rally that could last potentially three five uh plus years going forward which is really exciting uh the one thing that does does stand out that we still need to be aware of is you know every time we see one of these big spikes in Gold that comes up into this kind of you know almost 2100 level here it's driven by some type of news event and of course we just had you know the
financial system the banks uh start to go bankrupt and uh now we've got the FED talking about potentially slowing rates and we're starting to see gold pop so you know we're up in this lofty level the breakout zone for gold which will start to get really exciting for me is about the 2000 uh eighty nine dollar level so more or less if you can break or hold above uh 2090 an ounce especially on a monthly basis that's the most significant uh price chart that I like to follow then we could be Off to the Races for 2600
2700 gold as the next stop and that's kind of just based off this big rally here using uh technical analysis we can gauge based on this bull flight pattern how far up that next Target is which is 26 2700 an ounce so I'm really excited about that the only catch here is that we could be going into a recession and the last time we went into a recession and we saw uh stocks collapse a stage four decline where which is a very severe type of sell-off we only had a couple of those in the last 20 years
the the tech bubble was a stage four decline uh the 2008 financial crisis Was Won and I think we're actually coming back into another type of stage four Decline and the reason I say that is because this is the chart of gold we're looking at and gold pulled back about 34 percent during that stage four decline almost all assets get pulled down when there's Force liquidation so we while I'm very bullish on gold and I own a lot of physical Metals for the long-term picture we could still see gold pull back and
continue in this kind of this sideways Channel and over the next year I think this this stage four decline could potentially keep precious metals and miners Under Wraps a little bit here for another five six seven months until the stock market maybe work itself out by having some type of financial reset where we get a big crash in equities going forward so that is the those are the two scenarios if we can get a close above you know 2090 on gold I'll be on a monthly basis I'll be really bullish
really excited about the sector uh but at this point we haven't had a close there yet and we're we're testing it but it's a a news based move and there is potential here for gold to pull back to 1800 very easily uh throughout the rest of this year before your I think starts that next major leg so it doesn't matter which way it goes we just need to be aware of what it's doing and then follow suit take action to trade or invest along that uh that picture but as you were saying earlier short term I mean
you still have to be bullish I think it's right in resistance I think gold might run out of steam here so while we're bullish on the short-term analysis over the past couple of months you know we're right in the nosebleed section where I'm not that excited about gold at this point just because this is where sellers keep stepping in over the past two years and um it's a news driven move at this point really interesting so a lot of points that I think we want to follow up on here from what you've just said I wonder
if we can look a little bit more at your chart so I don't know a whole lot about technical analysis but I have seen over the last couple of days people talking about this triple top in gold and I see on your chart you do have those three points there I wonder if you can tell us what that means and explain to us what you're seeing there yeah triple tops are known as as they can be very bearish simply because the first one obviously no one knows where that top is going to be and then the second one you know you kind of feel
like the market is going to take off and run but then it gets rejected and then you go oh that that is a very significant resistance level that that is definitely there's a double top double tops are you know you could say just as bearish as a triple top and so now after we've got two of them the third one becomes much more obvious now everyone's talking about it because we've seen it happen twice before so now everybody's kind of like well that is naturally going to be a resistance area
which is true and which is why we saw a run up last month in April we saw a run all the way up almost broke out to new Highs but then closed down near the lows of the month and that's because this is people are seeing this as a triple top there's they're selling into gold when it reaches those lofty areas and so now we still have that same scenario where it's back up here and obviously there's a lot of people that are going to say I'm going to sell my gold if it gets back to that top level there's going to
be another group of Traders that'll say I'm going to short gold if it gets up there because I want to play the downside move so that that's the view that a lot of Traders short-term Traders kind of have on the market if we do break out it could be very significant in terms of it'll spark another huge rally to the upside but I mean I I triple top is uh if if it doesn't hold here it's going to reverse and we're probably going to see a fairly significant pullback I would think
somewhere to the 1850 or 1800 level very easily and that could happen over a only a few months so triple top is known as a bearish sign until proven wrong and that's the nice thing about technical analysis A lot of people will trade on guessing if it's a triple top I I do the opposite I wait for it to break a pattern and confirm that it's broken and then I jump on and follow the trend I don't try to you know short something near where I think a top is or try and buy a bottom where I think a bottom is
because you never know if that's actually the top or the bottom and the market is a great way of going a lot lower when you think about the lower uh you know when you go to trade short and get sell near a high it just keeps on going higher and you get stuck on the wrong side so I don't I don't play that game I I follow the market it's kind of our teacher and we just kind of follow in his footsteps okay thank you for explaining that I think that was a really helpful way to look at it I want to check back on some
of the points that we discussed in our last interview which was back in December of 2022 so when we're talking then you were expecting a really big bottom for Gold Silver and the miners as well in I believe the first half of 2023. now it sounds like maybe what you've seen is made you adjust your expectations and and the prices that they may go down to are a little bit higher than you were first expecting so is that is that the case uh so I I think this is this is the year 2023 I think this is where we're gonna
see uh our recession kick in we're going to see a big sell-off uh the market has a great way if it doesn't shake you out it will wait you out and of course it'll keep sometimes we have to just keep kicking the pattern down the road so I was hoping we were going to see things bottom um early this year which you could argue maybe it bottom just late last year and it's already testing These Eyes uh but my analysis is still the same I still think we have to have that that Financial reset that recession a stage
four decline that I think will pull gold silver in miners down with it uh and and that's pulling kind of the the bottom in Gold to late to the second half of this year probably like right at the end of this year uh is probably the earliest it would happen at this point is my thinking if we don't break out here and just start this new run so I still think we're gonna have that that bottom this year probably in Gold but I definitely think it's going to be right near the end of the year and then then Rally from
that point and in terms of How Deep The pullback could be the fact that gold is now right back up near these kind of all-time highs if we go into a stage four decline it gives it a lot of room to pull back and really still stay kind of you know somewhere within this these these lows over here so there's a lot of room for selling to kind of cushion it versus if if it was trading down here and then we went into a stage four decline it would pull it and create a huge bloodbath in selling but now all
it's going to do is pull it probably back down to support So in that regard I'm definitely a little more bullish here on gold in terms of I don't think it's going down to 1400 at this point I think it's probably going 16.50 at the lowest maybe down to 1800 so it is looking more bullish in terms of a smaller pullback okay and the reason I like to get clarity on you know what are the levels that we could go down to what are the levels that we could potentially go up to is people are always hearing that you
shouldn't buy high right you're supposed to buy low and I think as we get to these higher levels in gold and silver it becomes a little bit more difficult for people to understand where exactly they should be entering the market so I wonder if you have any strategies for people who are trying to parse through that yeah it's tough I mean I I did a video a little while ago showing you know where uh where I accumulated gold and silver over the last few years so we waited forever after the 2011-2012 eyes and as
you know when we broke out to the the start of this new kind of major bull market this super cycle I accumulated all through here and I even accumulated a little bit right back here on this pullback and so this is kind of the range that I I purchased in and I have no problems buying something that it that is running higher for example if I was to go back and pull this chart back and look at it from here people be like oh well you didn't buy it anywhere near the low you're buying it now it's
breaking to like multi-year Highs but I have no problems because this buying something high that is trending up it's typically going to go higher and the nice thing about an asset especially gold that is about to break to all-time highs there is no overhead resistance up there so buying something High probably means it's still going to go even higher a trend is more likely to continue so in terms of this this tote this pattern here we're looking at a major major cycle to the upside very similar to this
this right here this was the last Super Cycle from 2001 uh 2002 all the way up to 2011 and we've really just started another one and and all all this consolidation is really is just nothing more than one of these consolidations along the way right and it's just a series of pauses bull Flags within the major super cycle to the upside so you know this kind of bucks a trend you're not supposed to buy high but if something is trending up it's in its chart pattern is pointing to you know
much much higher prices and it has no overhead resistance I have no problems when it breaks out uh jumping in and buying some more physical metals because I believe it's going to go a whole lot higher this is just going to be another major leg up in the market generally I don't want to buy it resistance um and and I'm not planning to I'm planning to wait for it to break so I'm waiting for it to hit all-time highs before I actually even buy gold which is a little bit different than my typical
strategy I trade physical Metals um different than like an active investment so I don't mind um paying higher prices Holding Out for the long term uh going forward so there's nothing wrong with buying High the key is you have to be doing it for a reason I have a technical reason the chart patterns from multiple time frames say it's a very logical low like a high probability of it continuing to Rally higher the problem is people get excited with news like this they buy it here in the last couple of days thinking you
know all the all hell's breaking loose and Gold's gonna take off but then gold pulls back for the next six months and goes back to 1800 and then they feel like oh I just bought the high so if you buy high on an emotional with no real reasoning behind it that's not a good thing and that's where a lot of people struggle with is they buy it because they feel like they're missing out they've got the fomo and they hear all this news and they get sucked up and they see gold moving one percent in a
day which is a pretty big move for gold and they feel like they're just missing it and it's running without them that's usually a bad way to get in I'll pay another five percent higher and get in when a new trend is confirmed then jump in here and then have a losing position for potentially another four five eight months where I could put that money to work somewhere else and not have to go through that roller coaster of watching my money disappear and the anger and frustration that comes with buying High
just because I was emotional and didn't want to miss out right okay I think it's really important to talk about the psychology behind what people do I think that's really useful I want to ask you as well about buying the physical metal because we had talked at one point about premiums and and the concern that they might get quite a bit higher so do you have any thoughts there are you seeing anything in that note I honestly haven't looked at the premiums in a in a month or so so I'm
not sure what they are I do feel like they're the premiums are ridiculous and I feel like they could get a whole lot worse I would like to think if we do get a big pullback in the market that maybe the premiums will come down a little bit but um unfortunately I feel like we're all going to be stuck with the premium there's no way around these kind of rip-off premiums yeah that's probably very true and so we've got a pretty good idea now of where gold may go in terms of The Upside
and the downside can we look a little bit more closely at Silver and see what the potential might be there moving forward sure so silver silver obviously is far off the highs that we saw back in 2011 has had a very nice run over the past couple of months you know it's it's kind of a late bloomer I find silver I can can build these bases and and gold can keep moving up I mean when you think about where gold is gold is like equivalent to silver trading up here and that to me is because gold is the global Safe Haven
everyone in the world naturally wants to accumulate gold it's kind of the first thing that the average investor or individual kind of says if they're going to get into some alternative asset a commodity they think usually gold so that's why you know there's a lot of fear in the market people have moved to gold and Gold's trading at those lofty pricing silver is a little bit more of the speculative beast and um it's all over the place it is nowhere near those Highs but silver has a great way of
exploding and playing catch-up so for example gold might Rally from 2100 to 2600 you know you're looking at 25 roughly a percentage move where silver could potentially if it was to start to break out from from this kind of high over here you know it could rally uh you know 50 60 percent even more uh to catch up with gold and it can do it in a very very quick time we saw that happen over here where silver just kind of was underperforming and struggling and then suddenly it just blew up and took off
and that's what I think most gold investors in silver and gold miners are waiting for including myself I mean this this last Super Cycle in gold was pretty much is life-changing for a lot of people you get into these little stocks in silver and the amount of percentage moves they they they go is unbelievable it's so good that you know unfortunately people don't want to sell it and they'll hold it through you know a decade hoping you know it's going to come back to life the key is knowing where to pull money
off and protect your positions but coming back to Silver I do think silver um will probably blow up and take off to the upside it'll rock it higher back up to those that 50 level which is you know significant more return than gold but it's going to probably be a much more volatile ride and when it happens though it is very quick you know it could be explosive so I like gold and silver um definitely if I was to trade large large sums of money I would I would definitely split it between the two
um you know you look at gold a big day for gold is like a percent a percent and a half a big day for silver like you move like three five eight percent sometimes in a day or so it is a little more volatile for you know depending on what kind of assets you're using trading capital or like long-term investment Capital uh I like to try and keep volatility down in long-term large accounts uh so silver definitely want to be be careful there but I think there's great potential for you know sixty
dollars or sixty percent return or so in silver uh once we do get this breakout and you know if we just quickly go back if we do get this bigger pullback in the in the stock market uh we could see silver maybe silver goes up and tests these highs again but we could see silver easily just continue to trade you know in this this big range until the stock market has a reset stocks real estate all those things kind of have a financial reset uh precious metals are usually like the first sector first
commodity to really bottom so so even though the rest of the economy and the stock market might be falling gold and silver should turn up first and then start their huge Ascend uh and that'll be a really good sign for the economy it'd be a good sign for the stock market knowing that we're probably only a month or three away from a bottom in in stocks uh but I think there's gonna be a lot of potential but it might not happen just quite yet as we mentioned earlier right and so positive outlook coming for
gold and silver when the longer ish term but that comes alongside a as you're calling it a reset in the stock market and we've talked a little bit about that before in the past I wonder if you could maybe put some numbers on that and tell us what we should be looking for because reset is a pretty big concept I think for people to consider it is you know I've got I've got a an infographic here that I've shared uh with you before but I'll just cover it again really really quickly and the key
here is the stock market moves in these different in four key stages Stan Weinstein kind of coined this in his book uh many years ago uh you know stage one is that basing stage like we saw gold it was it was basing for several years and then we finally saw a breakout in 2019 and it started that that new super cycle that we're in now so gold is kind of in this stage two major super cycle stage two but the stock market is actually in this stage three topping phase is what is what I think we're in
right now and the problem here is that usually means we have to go through a stage four Decline and a lot of people think 2022 was the bear Market uh and it was I mean it was a you know 20 plus pullback in stocks which is considered a bear Market but a stage four decline is is like a financial reset where you know we've had so much going on Printing and stimulus and I think we're going to see a big unwinding event in the last two times that we had a stage four was the the tech Bubble Burst and then we had
the financial crisis both of those were stage four both of those were life-threatening um you know retirement threatening situations in fact in 2008 2009 there was like 8 600 suicides directly linked to the fall of equity prices so a stage four decline when I say there's going to be a resale I mean it's serious it is a dangerous Market condition people lose their life savings they lose their minds and and do really crazy things so this is why I keep trying to harp on it I I really don't want it to happen but I
think it's coming and everybody's much better knowing what to do be mentally prepared and have a game plan in place so this is kind of what we're looking for and eventually when the stage four is coming close to a bottom that's when we're going to start to see gold miners you know ripped to the upside well before the market actually puts in a bottom but during this decline is when gold silver miners are going to pull back and I mean we've got a you know if we if we go back here and just take a
look at the emotions of the market uh we're kind of in this complacency stage people don't want to think you know the bear Mark has just started and that there's a whole lot more pain coming uh and we were seeing a lot of people buy um accumulate stocks a lot of Money's been flowing into growth stocks which is uh it's not surprising but a lot of people are thinking the bear Market is over and um you know we're we're in the loop of the market so I think we have a better kind of gut feeling of what's
going on I I see a recession coming I see a big correction coming but the masses don't they don't they don't think the bottom is going to fall out and they're going to have a huge reset in their assets but this is the stage we're going to go through it's going to start to break down they're not going to believe what's happening and then they're going to be a denial it's another 2008 all over again I mean you know the we're looking at potential five six ten years maybe to recover from one
of these if you get caught on the wrong side and it becomes you know flat out depressing and that's that's what I'm trying to help people avoid and there's a great way to avoid this there's a way to profit from this and that's what I focus on with ETFs and uh in my strategies and that's because we follow price we don't you know trade on emotions and understanding these big Cycles these four stages they happen on any chart time frame but I like to look at it at the daily and the monthly
charts and if you know what stage we're in you can trade a strategy that works with that stage every stage requires a different type of strategy or a Twist you need to modify your strategy because the market actually moves and behaves differently in all of those stages and you know we go down and we look at the cycle of the markets this blue cycle is the stock market and it tells you where typical sectors perform really well 2022 energy was a massive leader this year precious metals miners are the leader
they are some of the last sectors to do well just before the stock market goes into a top we saw this in 2008 when Goldman owners are leading the way and flying higher like they are we're usually only a couple months away from the actual major next stage the stage four Decline and then we're going to go into a decline and then finally we're going to get the data that says oh we're in a recession you know because it's super delayed based on quarter uh quarter earnings or GDP and stuff like
that so all the things are coming together for the perfect storm that is going to like annihilate stress tests uh the average retirement or retiree or somebody who's got a lot of money they're gonna you know watch Decades of of savings and hard work potentially vanish and they have to wait a long time so that's the view and that's what I'm really trying to share with people is understand the market is moving in four stages and all these little interworkings so you can manage and
follow the trends with strategies that work in in that regard so if if we were to go to the SP 500 real quick just because we want to look at that this this is the monthly chart and this is the complacency stage that we're trading in we've had the first kind of breakdown and the market is uh you know could continue higher for a little bit but it is on the verge of a potential Thirty forty fifty percent correction and there's people calling for an 80 correction which is pretty extreme but a
30 to 50 percent is in the norm we've seen it happen before the 2000 or the the tech bubble was like an 85 correction in the NASDAQ um you know we saw the 2008 top this was the little little complacency stage in the 2008 top before we did the stage four decline it looks tiny compared to where we are now but when you go back in time and you look at these previous two bear markets there wasn't much of a complacency rally it broke down in 2000 and then went into a stage four decline here it broke down and had a complacency
move and then broke into a stage four Decline and then when we go and fast forward to where we are here we've broken down we're we're in this stage for our sorry the stage three topping phase a complacency stage on the verge of starting that next leg down so I'm not I'm not a doom and gloomer I'm not trying to scare anybody I'm just showing this is what the charts are showing this is what sector rotation volume flows are telling us um I mean the news and everything to me
is super bearish everything's falling apart we're not even in a recession and banks are blowing up so I mean it's you better be prepared to stand aside or benefit from this potential collapse and if it doesn't collapse perfect well if it goes up we'll jump on on board we'll ride the trend higher that's a nice thing of the technicals so kind of a bit of a rant there but I'm trying to trying to condense everything down just a really high level of where we are and the basics of the stock market how it
moves and how you need to kind of manage your your money I think that was great information for all the investors out there and I have I have one more point just On Emotion versus I know that you really focus on the technicals you try to cut out all of that noise but you know you only touched just briefly on the banking sector and all the issues that are going on there I think that is the potential to get very emotional and probably play some kind of role in all of this so just briefly how are you seeing that fit into all the the
different circumstances we have going on yeah for sure I mean I think the you know the the fact that you know Banks were all fine and cheery then you know uh Silicon Valley Bank and like a 48-hour window gets a run and goes out of business and we have another big one this week uh I don't think anybody should be surprised it's I think this is just the beginning we're going to start hearing lots of news of probably more layoffs we're going to hear more banking uh implosians we're going to hear
companies going bankrupt eventually I mean things are probably going to get pretty pretty bleak uh if if we continue on the trajectory that we're on I think the banking system blowing out I mean it's definitely scared me you can't keep money in a bank it is pretty scary I mean that's a big driver of Bitcoin of gold and silver is you know if I can't go keep some money sitting in cash saving cash for an opportunity after this where can I put it because I'm worried my bank is going to blow up
right so people are moving to physical assets and it really is the perfect storm uh for gold and silver very similar like it was in 2008. banks are blowing up everybody's losing assets but gold still ended up getting sucked down with the the bloodbath of selling and that's what I still think could happen but right now the banking system the news hitting is all bullish for gold and that's why we keep seeing it go up we just when eventually we get high volume selling in real Panic where people are
are in real fear uh it will probably pull the metals back down but um everything right now is just saying gold is the safe buyer buyer buyers and silver blocks and keep them safe don't store them in a bank that's true this is the kind of environment that gold and of course silver they really like so very interesting to watch so we've covered a lot of ground here and as we're wrapping up I want to touch on some of your news you mentioned you've got a book coming out it's coming
on May 15th which is your birthday I'm gonna remember it because it's my sister's birthday too can you tell us a little bit about the book where we can find it what it's about what people will learn from reading it sure yeah so I'm coming with a new a new book called asset revesting and how to exclusively hold assets rising in value profit during bear markets and continue Building Wealth in retirement and really what this is is a a different strategy from the Buy and Hold or the buy and hope strategy
instead of writing volatile you know hold stocks and bonds and ride it out through the roller coasters assay reinvesting is totally different you're you're reinvesting your assets in whatever asset is performing better so this strategy which is a totally different style uh is looking through the lens of an asset hierarchy so we focus on the top of the hierarchy will be whichever assets uh in individual favors in my case I focus on this U.S stock market so the stock indexes are the are the top uh Prime candidate to
make the most money and then you've got bonds treasuries and then you've got the US dollar Index and and you've got cash and as you move down the hierarchy they move to slower and slower less volatile assets they have a negative or inverse correlation to or no correlation to the other assets and doesn't matter what's going on as chaos picks up we move down the hierarchy to less volatility assets and it doesn't matter if like for example the dollar is rallying or if it's falling there's a long or an
inverse ETF so we can we can benefit kind of sitting in a cash position but playing rallies or sell-offs in the different asset classes themselves so it's a very different way I don't believe in diversification I don't believe in the Buy and Hold strategy I think it's a great way to get the status quo average returns like when you look at diversification you know you hold a whole bunch of different assets some are falling some are rising during a bear Market almost all are falling so you
don't really get any real performance asset revesting is different and says okay we're going to be in the best asset at any given time if the stock market is rising we put our money into the stock market and we we manage those positions going up if it's not going up we look at bonds if bonds aren't favorable we go to the dollar ETFs and if we don't like either of any of those positions then we can sit in cash and just collect interest so you know we don't split our money over a
whole bunch of different assets we don't spread it around like peanut butter or anything like that we actually just focus on where's the best spot to put our money is it trending in a direction that we can benefit from if so we're putting our money there if there's nothing we sit in cash and that's one thing that subscribers you know uh I get emails and we get comments in our members area they're like you know during 2022 bear Market people are like I can't believe how good it feels to
have no positions and sit in cash or to benefit from you know the dollar Index going up well the rest of the market is falling apart it is a completely different investing experience uh takes away all the roller coaster rides all the downside risk it's a pretty incredible opportunity a very new way or it's not new but it's a different way for investors to see the markets and manage their Capital so I'm really excited to share this strategy kind of bring it to light put a name to it I've
been doing this for uh you know over 20 years and finally I'm like you know what I need to put a name on this we need to get this out so others investors individuals can start creating their own asset hierarchies creating their own strategies there's no more need to to suffer through bear markets and stage four declines and get you know annihilated on a financial side when you can put things in place that'll allow you to sidestep it or benefit from any Market Trend going forward so I'm really
excited to get this book out on my birthday very exciting so May 15th we'll leave a link to that in the video description if people want to check it out I think definitely that strategy sounds very appealing right now given everything that's going on in the markets thank you so much for coming on to discuss gold and silver and and everything else really great to hear from you thanks for having me Charlotte take care appreciate it of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing News
Network and this is Christopher Nolan with the technicaltraders.com foreign
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