gold news

 Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And it has been 20 days since silver made its nominal all-time closing high, which happened on October 16th at $54.16 per ounce. Now, as things stand today, at the time I am recording this video, silver is only about $1 off that high. But despite that, some people are insisting that silver won't make a new high for another 10 years, suggesting that I don't understand technical analysis or topping patterns. Now, in the case of gold, which made its

all-time high back on October 20th, so 18 days ago, I'm hearing much of the same with more and more comparisons being made to 1980 and 2011 than I can count. some of which are coming from large mainstream YouTubers. So, in this video, I want to do something I've never done on the channel before by using indexing to directly compare gold and silver price development now in 2025 to what happened in 1980 and 2011 to determine if what we are seeing today is what the pros call a deadcat bounce that

will lead to a bare market for gold. and silver. Once that's covered, I want to show you all some truly shocking data that relates to shorting and manipulation of gold and silver prices that really surprised me and it supports a lot of the things that I've been saying in recent videos. And I think it's going to surprise you, too. And we're going to finish this video off on the topic of mining stocks, the four reasons I am so bullish on them right now. I will answer a viewer question on

B2 gold and finish with a little guidance for those of you who were impacted by the latest pullback. But just before we dive in, I want you all to know that this bonus midweek video has been made possible by investing.com and their amazing market analysis tool, Investing Pro, which I use to track my personal mining stock portfolio because of how easy it is to use and how it provides very clear analysis, ratings, breakdowns, price targets, news, and earnings reports for stocks across all sectors that even beginners to the world

of mining stocks will find useful. and easy to understand, especially when you factor in access to the Warren AI tool, which in contrast to other mainstream AIs like Grock and Chat GPT offers clear financial-based answers as well as technical analysis to help you make the best decisions when it comes to navigating this profitable but risky sector. So, if you want to supercharge your investing strategy or just verify what it is your favorite YouTubers are saying when they promote mining stocks or give you price targets, please sign

up for investing.com's investing pro package. And when you sign up now, you get 55% off plus an extra 15% off on top of that when you use my link. But this deal ends soon. So take advantage of it now because if you're investing thousands of dollars in metals and miners, you shouldn't be doing it in the dark. And this tool is a light that makes all the opportunities and risks clearly visible. So jumping in, as I presented to you all in my Sunday video, the fundamentals are completely

different for precious metals in 2025 than they were in 1980 or even 2011. And for gold, as I said on Sunday, that involves game theory and the growing competition between central banks to add to their gold reserves as they experience something similar to FOMO with no central bank wanting to go down in history as the last one to blindly trust the US dollar. And in the case of silver, which was just officially added to the critical minerals list, it means the potential of US government stockpiling over the next 5 to 7 years,

which may also trigger FOMO amongst competing nations and even export controls on silver, making supply in a market that is already running a supply deficit extremely tight, driving price up for those who will be willing to pay more to get it. So clearly there are factors in 2025 that suggest and I hate to say it because these are of course famous last words but things are actually different today than they were back in 1980 and 2011. Now instead of empty words and narratives on fundamentals I want to show you all

using numbers precisely why the data supports this point of view. And to do that we are going to do something called indexing. And what that means is we are going to take the highs from 1980, 2011 and 2025 and show how price developed and is developing now relative to those highs in the days following the high which should give us an idea of whether we are indeed following the same patterns of 1980 and 2011 today or if I'm right about it really being different this time for gold and silver.

And starting with gold, you can see three lines here on the screen right now. And they will be the same for silver when we move forward to that. But what you're looking at here is the red line showing price development after the 1980 high for gold. The orange line showing 2011 and the green line showing what has happened since the 2025 high from about 18 days ago. Now the first thing I want you all to notice is the actual index for gold price in day 17 after making the high which is today. Because what you should notice right

away is that gold price as of the time of recording on Wednesday, November 12th is still 96% of what it was at the closing high 18 days earlier. Whereas in 1980 and 2011 after the blowoff top highs had been put in in those years, we saw much stronger pullbacks that brought gold price to 85% of what the high was in both instances after the same amount of elapsed time with gold in 2025 making what seems to be more of a price consolidation pattern somewhat like what we saw after the April move to $3,500

an rather than a real legitimate topping pattern accompanied by a strong pullback like the ones we saw in 1980 and 2011. Now, switching over to silver, what I'm talking about becomes much more obvious when we look at this set of data. Because silver, which made its 2025 high on October 16th of this year, not only held up pretty strong in the days following the top, which was obviously not the case in 1980 or 2011, but price is now bouncing back with silver price at 96% of what it was at the top now 19 days

later, where price had already fallen below 80% versus the top 19 days after making it. in both 1980 and 2011. And what this data tells me, what this image you're looking at on the screen right now tells me is that we need to take the fundamentals that are supporting precious metals prices extremely seriously right now because old topping patterns, which we've already seen made multiple times since the beginning of 2024 as metals started to make strong moves to the upside, are being overpowered by market fundamentals. And

if we take a peek at short sale volume for gold ETFs like PHYS, which measures the total number of shares that investors have borrowed and then sold, betting that the price of gold will go down. Well, as you can see here, where that interest in betting against the price of gold was very high back at the end of October, peaking out, by the way, exactly on October 20th, it's almost non-existent now, with the exact same thing being true for silver. When we look at PSLV, the silver ETF, which was

heavily shorted or bet against back in October, but is not being bet against so much now as the cost to do it has risen significantly because supply, as I mentioned earlier, is already extremely tight. So, coming back to an image I've used in a few videos recently, one that I call an oldie but a goodie, it's clear to me that what is happening right now is nothing like what we saw in 1980 or in 2011. And when we add in all of the fundamental factors that haven't even fully kicked in yet for gold and silver,

including possible US government stockpiling of silver, the migration to the 6020 investment portfolio that will benefit gold, and continued DDOLization by central banks, it's clear that where we are at now is much more similar to the period between 2003 and 2006 than it is to 1980 or 2011. So, with that covered and moving on to this video's viewer question, I want to double down on something I said a couple weeks ago while simultaneously addressing this comment from a viewer named Roger Campo.

Because Roger commented on a recent video saying that my best investment, the mining stock B2 Gold, is in the toilet. And I assume he was either trying to warn people or maybe just offering up some criticism. But no matter what the goal of making the comment was, I think it's only fair considering the recent volatility in mining stocks to reply to it. So to begin, I have never shied away from the fact that the physical metals themselves, gold and silver, have significantly outperformed the mining

stocks over the long term. And that's extremely visible in this chart here showing gold price versus GDX large miners ETF since the ETF's launch in 2006 where gold price has risen more than 500% versus a modest 116% increase in the value of the ETF of course not including dividends. And it's precisely for this reason I have said if you are planning for retirement, focus on the metals themselves because they come with lower risk. They come without counterparty risk which of course the

mining stocks have. That said, after more than a decade of sideways movement, these mining stocks are getting ready to break out in a big way. And I say getting ready because what we've seen so far is in my opinion small potatoes compared to what we are going to see next year due to a combination of significantly higher metals prices, comparatively lower oil prices, falling interest rates making servicing debts a lot cheaper for these mining companies, and of course better investment management on the side of the mining

companies who I really think learned a lot of valuable lessons during the bull market of 2010 and 2011 that led to a lot of bad investment from their side that hurt the mining stock price performance over the long term. And because of that, despite having taken a little profit recently on my mining stocks to protect my downside risk, I continue to hold a decently sized mining stock portfolio. that includes among other stocks these four companies, one of which is of course B2 Gold which trades under the tickers BTO in Canada

and BTG in the United States that I first shared a few weeks ago with you all to show you how I use Investing Pro to track stock performance and assess potential versus other stocks I may be considering to buy. Now, to just directly respond to Roger's comment, let me be clear when I say that B2 Gold is hardly my best investment, and I would never pretend that it has been. In fact, of the stocks I started buying in July 2023 when I decided to enter the mining stocks and people said I was crazy, as

you can see here, it's actually been the poorest performer, up only 45% over that time, with the closest ones to it being a couple that are up 50% and 59%. But the only reason those stocks have done so badly is because I recently scaled up on those stocks, bringing my average price on them up. Now, zooming in a bit on B2 Gold, if you watched my video a couple weeks ago after the Fed's interest rate announcement and tracked the stock's progress over that time, I could completely understand why someone

would leave a critical comment on that stock in particular, as it's had a major reversal driven by concerns of political instability in Mali, which is one of the four main countries they operate in. most of which by the way is now priced into the stock even though they haven't had any production disruptions as a result of what's happening there. Now, despite all the recent damage done to the stock's price, which is now slowly floating back up, if you zoom out just a bit on the chart, what you'll see is

that the stock, despite the recent volatility, is still up 63% in 2025, easily beating the S&P 500, which is only up 14% so far this year. And in addition to that, is offering a higher dividend yield at 3.8. 8% versus the S&P 500's 1.1%. So, as we move on, let me be completely direct and say the past couple of weeks haven't been all that kind to mining stocks in general. But if you've entered the mining stock trade, you need to have a little more patience than an 18-year-old crypto trader

because this pullback from my point of view represented and still to a certain degree represents an excellent opportunity to scale in if you're late to the mining stock party. Because just as we don't judge Tom Brady for the more than 200 interceptions that he threw in his career, you can't judge the mining stocks by the last 3 weeks of their performance. Now, to the people who are looking to buy what little is left of this mining stock pullback or just get a little exposure to the mining stocks in

general in anticipation of what is coming in April 2026, which is when I said I expect us really to fly due to real official interest rates likely going negative again, which has always been great for metals. Please note that although I believe in the four stocks I have revealed in recent videos, they come with varying levels of risk and volatility. And you can see that very well using investing pro, which includes the investing.com mobile app where I took these screenshots from. And what this is showing and why I have kept my

B2 gold position at a conservative 3% of my portfolio is because the company has been inconsistent on delivering revenue and earnings in line with targets and projections that they've made compared to some of my larger positions like Pneumont and Kinros which have been crushing it. And that makes those companies, New Pneumont and Kin Ross, much better alternatives along with the GDX ETF for people who have had a tough time handling the recent volatility in mining stocks. But for those of you who

already have Investing Pro or plan to get it, which again, if you're going to invest in mining stocks, you should invest in this tool. You can easily check the company's earnings records as well as the health score to help assess the risk. And I've highlighted the health scores in red for these three companies to show you all that it's an easy way for anyone to quickly assess risk level before entering a stock. Now, just to close the loop on B2 Gold, what I'll say is this. Since I want a little

bit of risk in my portfolio, I continue to hold it. I'm not selling it. I'm not panicking. I'm not getting out because if things come together for B2 Gold, especially as they get their Canadian mine up and running, which is happening right now, the upside opportunity is still attractive on this company. And for that reason, along with the other four reasons I shared earlier, I remain extremely bullish on mining stocks overall, but I remain positive on B2 Gold despite the recent volatility. And

I encourage you all to screenshot this from Investing Pro to go over some of the details for yourselves if you've been wondering about this stock or if you hold it or considering buying it. Now, moving on, because I saw a lot of ads for Giant Mining this week on YouTube, I wanted to share this overview of the company with you all. So, those of you considering buying the stock can see the company's health profile, its certainty level, which I have highlighted in red here, as well as some

of the pros and cons of the company that you can access easily on Investing Pro, but won't necessarily hear in the YouTube sales pitch because although I am open to risk in my investment portfolio and when it comes to my mining portfolio, taking risks on smaller producers and producers operating in riskier jurisdictions, So some riskier geographies during a metals bull market. A risk on exploration is a risk I am not willing to take. And I just wanted to share that point of view with you all

here before you buy the stock and to let you know how investing pro can easily help you identify these risks and prevent you from potentially making mistakes in your mining stock portfolio. So, as we finish, I just want to thank Investing Pro from investing.com for making this video possible. It is a powerful platform that I really use and recommend. And if you could please click on my link below, which is in the video description and pinned comment, and watch the short video demonstration of some things you get when you sign up for

Investing Pro. Even if you don't want to sign up for it yet, it really would help me a lot and can lead to future bonus videos sponsored by Investing Pro, which is a good product. So, please click the link. And if you want to sign up because you want to increase your confidence when investing in mining stocks, please consider doing it now and take advantage of the 55% off deal plus the extra 15% off you get when you use my link. So, with that said, I want to thank you all for watching this special midweek video.

Please leave me your feedback in the comments section below and let me know if you want to see more videos like this. And until the next time we see each other, everyone, I want to encourage you all to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you in the next video. Goodbye.