Look, we're 10 days away from the first notice day of delivery for the March silver contract. And I think people really need to understand what this means. Um, as of Friday, there was 58,770 contracts that were left open interest as it's called, that could stand for delivery. Each contract is 5,000 ounces. So that's 294 million ounces open interest right now for the March contract. A bunch of it has rolled to May to the May contract because there was about 400 million ounces a week ago.
So about 100 million ounces have rolled to to May which is the next big delivery month. Not April, it's it's May. And that's normal, right? But it's still really very huge that we have 300 million ounces open this close to first notice. So I think what I take away from that is not a comx default but even half of the open interest actually decided to stand for delivery. You're talking uh 150 million ounces that would need to get sourced. Right. The problem with that is that the registered silver
category that is the available silver backing the contracts available to deliver is about 90 million ounces. Right? So, you know, do the math. Uh if demand for delivery spikes, COMX has two options. either drain registered in inventory very fast uh which would be I guess a very serious draw down or you have the price of immediacy increases where you have forced incentives premiums will increase uh exchange for physicals will increase they will try and get people to roll to May uh by by incentivizing cash settlements with a
premium anything to keep mele anything to keep metal from from leaving and welcome to Gold Silver News, your go-to destination for all things economics and finance. Whether you're an experienced investor, an inquisitive student, or just someone who wants to stay ahead in today's everchanging economic landscape, you've come to the right place. I've been working on a private road map for viewers who are more focused on protecting their wealth than speculating in uncertain markets. I'll share it at
the end for those interested. Now, we'll show you the best clips of the latest interview. But first, smash the subscribe button, hit the like button, and send us super thanks if you find our daily recaps valuable. Enjoy the episode. In my opinion, this is how the stress shows up. It's not in price, but it's in the delivery mechanisms and the delivery mechanics. And when the paper claims tower over the deliverable silver, I think the market um is calm until it isn't. And so I think really
what you're looking at is even a portion of this stands for delivery. 20% stands for delivery. You're talking what um 60 million ounces of the 90 million. This is a problem. And um yeah, so I think that's to me the biggest issue right now. What I'm watching is we'll see what happens over the next 10 days. Uh at the same time, you still have this big $10 premium in Shanghai uh over the western price that this arbitrage is not going away. They're continuing to incentivize the the people
here in the west who have the ability to buy cheap 75 bucks or whatever and sell it for 85 bucks. In China, a lot of people say, "Well, what about the the um the difference in price is is the uh the tax the no the VAT tax, right? Not not tariffs that there's a VAT tax, which is true, but it's not true, right? These are people who are not quite understanding the mechanics. The VAT tax is really there, but it is it's the responsibility of the recipient because when metal is delivered to Shanghai and
you get that $10 arbitrage spread, you deliver 50 million ounces at 10 bucks, you just made 500 million $500 million. Uh that VAT tax is the responsibility of the recipient when it leaves when it leaves the Shanghai exchange. So, it's not paid until it leaves. If it stays there, there is no tax. So, in other words, that arbitrage is significant enough at this point for a $10 uh premium plus like a 13 or 14 or 15% tax. They don't care. They want the metal. And so, this is all I think uh noise. You have to see the big
picture. You have to relax, see the big picture, understand it for what it truly truly is. And I I think yes, the volatility is enough to freak a lot of people out. But look, silver is the canary in the coal mine. And uh I think it's exposing a paper market built by banks um that that trade credit, not real metal. And real demand is showing up in Shanghai. And price discovery is shifting there. It's leaving London. It's leaving New York. And as long as the western paper market stays
disconnected to Shanghai like it is now, the phys physical silver will keep getting pulled out of the west and sent to where it's valued. And look, you look the scary part, it's even getting tight in Shanghai with premiums starting to blow out. And and I think that's why to me the forwards and the futures are starting to feel almost undeliverable for a lot of people. This is why you're seeing backwardation where the market makers are having a hard time sourcing metal. They can't hedge easily. I've
been stating since 2020 on your program, the monetary authorities have resolved it out of the global south. Take delivery gradually. Don't execute it too quickly. Everyone asks why don't they simply unleash trillions of dollars because you destroy yourself. You sever your nose to hurt your own face. They've been exceptional at depleting the exchanges across the globe. And that gradual covert bitby-bit process people can't tolerate. It's too repetitive. It's too gradual. It's a non-event. But
as you can observe, we're reaching the stage where they're exhausting the accessible silver to ship. And that to me is all you need to observe. on top of who has been taking delivery every single month, month after month after month after month after month for billions and billions and billions of dollars. They don't do this for no reason. What you are witnessing right now is simply the turbulence intended to mislead the rest of us off the track, off the path, and funnel into the largest surge into global US equities in
history. They want the rest of us inside the corral with the rest of the flock. At the same time, you have billionaire David Einhorn. I don't know if you read that piece, but he believes that gold is firmly on its course to becoming the world's primary reserve asset. This is an individual who manages one of the largest hedge funds globally, and he's asserting that it's already supplanting treasuries, as we've discussed for the past several years, as central banks reserve holding because trust in this
framework, both fiscal and macro perspective, is deteriorating. I've never witnessed a market like this. Not once. I mean, let's rewind to the pandemic. Premiums on scrap. We were paying $9 above spot for four years. Anyone who would sell us as much as they could sell us, we would pay X dollars above spot. Yes, valued viewers. Now, I will share today's developments in the economy and precious metals. Today's global economic landscape continues to be shaped by mixed data, geopolitical
frictions, central bank signals, and sharp moves in the precious metals complex. In the United States, recent macroeconomic indicators such as weaker than expected consumer confidence and modest weather adjusted housing starts point to a cooling growth environment with Q4 GDP coming in at about 1.4% 4% reinforcing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy path. Markets are watching core inflation readings and labor market signals closely to gauge whether the Fed will move toward rate cuts or maintain higher rates for longer
across major developed economies. Core inflation in the Euro zone has eased, weakening the case for further interest rate increases and focusing investor attention on growth data rather than aggressive tightening. Trade policy tensions remain in focus as the US pushes tariffs while the EU signals readiness to respond, adding another layer of policy uncertainty that markets are pricing in. On the precious metals front, gold and silver markets have been extremely dynamic over the past few weeks. Spot gold has repeatedly tested
key levels above $5,000 per ounce, reflecting safe haven demand amid economic and geopolitical risk. Though prices have softened recently with reduced trading activity and as the US Iran diplomatic talks in Geneva eased some risk premiums. Silver which tends to be more volatile than gold has seen similarly wide swings rising sharply when risk fears spiked but also retracing as liquidity thinned during holidays and as demand drivers fluctuated. Price action has shown silver near multi-week highs above 79 to
$84 per ounce in recent sessions before pulling back amid weaker Asia market participation. Precious metals investors continue to weigh geopolitical tensions especially in the Middle East which have historically driven safe haven inflows into gold and silver. While easing talk has at times dampened demand, strategic ambiguity over future developments means markets remain sensitive and reactive to headlines, sector specific news also underscores this riskreward balance. Mining stocks tied to gold and silver
resources such as high craft mining have registered notable gains after reporting significant resource expansions, signaling that broader industry optimism persists around underlying metal fundamentals. From a positioning standpoint, some analysts and wealth managers are now suggesting that profiting investors consider rebalancing portfolios after outsiz rallies in both gold and silver over the past 18 months given the possibility that prices may consolidate or correct if growth expectations stabilize and yields remain
elevated. At the same time, central bank buying continues to support the long-term case for gold as a hedge against policy uncertainty and potential future inflation pressures, even as short-term demand es and flows with shifting economic data and seasonal trading patterns. In summary, precious metals remain at the center of investor positioning amid a fragile economic backdrop. With gold's anchor above $5,000 and silver's heightened volatility reflecting broader concerns about growth, rates, and geopolitics,
market participants are vigilant for upcoming inflation data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments that could swing sentiment rapidly in either direction. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below. Oh,
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