Hello everyone. Welcome to Bald Guy Money. And let me just say at the start of this video, I am fighting a little bit of a cold. I'm a little bit under the weather right now. So, apologies in advance for my voice going through this video. That said, something interesting happened this past week that some of you may have missed, but silver, which started the year at $28.89 per ounce. It's crazy to think about it. Has now doubled in price so far in 2025, closing this past week at $58.29 29


cents per ounce, putting it up 102% so far on the year, while bumping its share of the top 10 assets ranked by market cap up to 6%. Meaning all of the world's silver now is roughly 6% of the total value of all of these things here you see on the screen combined. as Silver is now challenging Microsoft for the fifth spot on this list on its way to what I think will be the number two spot by 2026 at some point during the year as both gold and silver continue to grow their share of value on this list. And


that's whether the major bull run possibly bubble for AI continues or not. It does not matter because as I've said in past videos, it's still very early for gold and silver relative to past bull runs. And we see that clearly when we measure them versus the S&P 500 because it still takes a lot more gold and silver to buy the S&P 500 index today than it did in the years leading up to the 2011 highs. with the S&P 500 still 227% more expensive when measured in silver versus 2011 at 118 ounces of silver


today to buy the S&P 500 index versus only 36 ounces as an average during 2011. And when we look at gold, you can see that despite its massive run since the beginning of 2024, where price has basically gone from $2,000 an ounce to more than $4,000 an ounce, the S&P 500 index remains 101% more expensive versus 2011 at 1.6 ounces of gold for the S&P 500 today versus only 0.8 in 2011. In fact, when you look at the last time metals were growing in value relative to stocks following the 2000.com bubble and


the return to negative interest rates that followed in 2002, which is a very important point that I've covered in recent videos, you can see that when measured versus the S&P 500, gold and silver are closer to the period leading up to the massive blowoff top in metals than they are to the actual blowoff top period. period themselves. So considering this data, I want to take a look at the gold to silver ratio which I have said is a great indicator for market tops and bottoms and I want to


use it to show you all where I think we are in the current bull cycle for gold and silver. What it says about potential tops for both metals before they take a rest. And I want to finish this video on the topic of the market top for gold and silver and what I think comes after for both metals for both gold and silver and if you need to be thinking about an exit strategy. So please watch to the end to see what I have to say about that. Now just before we dive in, please check out summitmetals.com for great prices,


especially on gold American Eagles. And as I warned last week, please do it before we start making new highs on gold because as I've just shown you, it still has plenty of room to move up. And if it's silver you're after, sadly the bald guy 100,000 subscriber deal is over. I hope most of you took advantage of that. But if you didn't, please remember that new customers to Summit Metals still get this 5oz deal for silver at spot when using code new customer at checkout. And I will leave the link to this in the


video description below. So as we begin, let me start by saying that we are in what I think is a unique period in time where we are only just starting to undo some of the mistakes of the past when it comes to how we've managed money and currency. And where central banks might be a bit ahead of the curve when it comes to this realignment as they became net buyers of gold in 2010 after more than two decades of selling gold. Please be aware that most regular people and many institutional investors are still


in denial about gold and silver and where they're going. So when I say we are early in this cycle, please understand that despite the recent gains, the majority of money that will eventually be seeking safety in precious metals in the future is still parked in other assets with implied allocations to gold based on ETF allocations. still roughly four times smaller than it was in the period between 2009 and 2011 and was only just recently equal by the way to crypto allocations which as you can


see here are falling fast. Now as I said in the intro another great indicator of where we are in this bull run is of course the gold to silver ratio which tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy 1 ounce of gold. And for those of you who may have forgotten this point, let me remind you that bottoms, so lows in metals prices are made when we see a large increase in the gold to silver ratio. And tops in the market where prices reach their peak are made when we see large declines, even crashes


historically in the gold to silver ratio like the one we saw from the mid 1970s leading into the 1980 highs where the gold to silver ratio crashed by 60%. And once again between 2008 and 2011 where the gold to silver ratio crashed by 61%. all measured on a monthly closing basis. Now, moving forward to today, I think using a 60% pullback target from the high on the gold to silver ratio as an indication of when we may be at or at least close to the top for this metals bull run, just like we saw in the last two major market tops


for metals is a reasonable target to set. And considering the fact that the gold to silver ratio has been skewing higher over the last 10 years as central banks have purchased so much gold that it is pushing gold prices higher relative to silver prices than we've been used to seeing in the past. Using the 1980 or 2011 gold to silver ratio lows as our target for this market top is not a useful indicator as far as I'm concerned as the 60% pullback will be happening from a much higher level on


the gold to silver ratio this time around and I think measuring from the March 2020 high of 113 on the gold to silver ratio chart here is a good conservative place to measure from and that means that a reasonable indicator of at least a local top for gold and silver prices during this bull run would be a gold to silver ratio of 45 which if we are at 72 today is still a long way off. Now before we move on, I just want to say that I expect to see comments claiming the ratio should be 15:1 or 8:1 and I know that even some people are


going to put that the ratio should be 1 one but I am not making these videos and doing this analysis to tell people what they want to hear. And although I agree, the gold to silver ratio could still come down much lower than 45 on a longer time frame as the silver market becomes a more honest place in the world based on real physical supply and demand. I just want to say that my data driven approach here despite some imperfections is still the best way to look at the market right now to set realistic


and actionable targets that set you up for success rather than disappointment especially for those of you looking to trade the gold to silver ratio. So, so, so please keep that in mind. Anyhow, with that disclaimer about the gold to silver ratio covered and knowing that the gold to silver ratio is currently at 72, which is 36% below the high of 113 that we're measuring from. The next step in this process is to see where gold and silver prices were at this stage of the game. So, 36% below the gold to silver


ratio top leading into their 1980 and 2011 highs. And as you can all see here on the screen, I have prepared the data using the periods of May 1979 and November 2010 as the benchmark periods for that as they were the periods where the gold to silver ratio matched a 36% decline from the high which is where we are now of course and were also closest to the blowoff top highs. And I used that criteria so nobody could accuse me of cherrypicking the data to present possibly a better story and better price targets for gold


and silver. Now what you can see is that at this stage of the game in 1979 leading in to the 1980 highs, gold price still increased by 150% before topping out and silver price increased by 295% when compared to its monthly closing high. So that's also just a reminder here. I'm not using the daily or intraday highs to measure this and that's why the silver high is shown at $34 in 1980 which was the January 1980 closing figure. Now in 2011 we were already much closer to the top for gold


and silver prices at this stage of the game. Gold still moved up another 32% before topping out and silver moved up another 71% from that moment before topping out. indicating that when we take those gains and we extrapolate them and apply them to current spot prices that even in a very conservative scenario which is the 2011 scenario that you see on the right side of the screen right now we still have strong moves to make up for both gold and silver and on the topic of these numbers in particular


I think we should treat those 2011 numbers on the right side of the screen as a minimum base case right now telling us that We should be seeing gold price exceed at least $5,500 an ounce and silver price get close to $100 an ounce before we can even start talking about a top in this metals market which in my opinion is very useful information to have. Now, as we move on to this video's viewer question, which comes from Casey Murphy and asks about the current metals bull market and if it can sustain into


the 2030s, the question basically is that we have to answer is do I think next year or 2027 will mark the top of the metals bull market around those prices that you see on the right side of the screen before we see a long correction period? or do I think gold and silver will continue to move along towards numbers closer to the ones on the left side of the screen with gold exceeding $10,000 an ounce and silver exceeding $200 an ounce at some point in the future. So to start, and let me be perfectly clear on this, the


fundamentals as they apply to the gold and silver market are changing. And that means a lot of the things we've gotten used to over the past 25 or even 55 years no longer apply in the same way they used to. And this bull market for precious metals as I presented to you all at the beginning of this year from a hotel room in Rome, Italy, can easily last another 10 to 12 years as a lot of central banks haven't even started accumulating the gold they need and are going to need as they shift away from US


treasuries and towards gold as their preferred reserve asset. Not only because of neutrality issues associated with freezing Russian assets in 2022, which I've covered in the last couple videos, but really because of the fact that US debt cannot be contained. Which means the value of US Treasury reserves as the United States creates more and more money to spend goes down over time. Whereas the value of gold is and has been going up which is ultimately why central banks started turning back to


gold in 2010. And in the case of silver with it now being listed as a critical mineral and the price being bid up in the futures market as more and more people demand physical delivery of silver contracts. The fundamentals are starting to play out for silver much in the same way they have been playing out for gold since early 2024. And it's pushing us towards a reality where institutional paper market manipulators will no longer have an incentive to use their old old tricks to manipulate the


silver market because the risk of doing so is becoming very high. considering how tight the silver market is becoming and how many people are demanding delivery on physical silver contracts. And it could be why we saw commodity futures stop trading temporarily a couple weeks ago on the Chicago Merkantile Exchange in a situation that looked eerily similar to a scene from The Big Short. For those of you who have seen that movie, it's one of my favorites, where the big banks could no longer manipulate the housing bond


market and claimed their computers crashed while they quietly took the opposite side of the trade. Which for silver in this case means we may be getting close to real price discovery soon as some of those manipulators take the long side of the silver trade. And all of that leads me back to the numbers you see on the left side of the screen, which is the 1980 scenario, suggesting gold price could still go above $10,000 an ounce and silver could go above $200 an ounce. Because as I've said in


numerous videos both this year but mainly in 2024 because this was a very big topic for me in 2024 where I think we may see a local top followed by a shallow pullback possibly in 2028 or 2029. I fully expect the bull market for gold and silver to continue afterwards leading us into 2033 which is when the US dollar really runs into some trouble as that's the year that the Congressional Budget Office admits again by their own numbers this is not a conspiracy theory that the social security trust will run out of


money which I have said will trigger a money printing party on the scale of New Year's 's eve in Time Square, making past money printing parties look like a McDonald's birthday party, pushing gold and silver prices up to levels I have shared again in past videos, mainly in 2024. And you can see them right here on the screen now, and I don't share these numbers often because they are long-term projections and a lot can admittedly change between now and 2033. That said, $11,800 per ounce gold and $25 per ounce silver


isn't much higher than what the 1979 to 1980 scenario suggests prices will be from where we are today inl the cycle. And for people planning to use gold and silver in retirement, I think this gives us a clear sign to hold on to our precious metals for the long term while maybe looking to try to book some capital gains in the mining stocks. Because to answer the question from the title of this video, yes, precious metals will double again. All the evidence we have in the numbers, the trends, and the fundamentals tells us


that. And it also tells us that silver price will likely double again after that as this bull market for metals not only continues into the 2030s Casey but accelerates as the decline in fiat currencies accelerates driven by promises made by governments around the world like social security and other national pension programs that they cannot keep and politicians who are simply scared to tell the truth about it. Now, just before we wrap up, I want to thank F. Kavija, and I think his name is Frank, who gave me a very generous


super chat during the live chat video premiere last week, telling me to get an ounce of silver on him. And I just want to say, I know you're watching that I got that ounce of silver, Frank. Here it is. I hope you can see it here. Maybe the light's a bit bright. Oh, there it is. I think you can see it now. It is a type 2 silver American Eagle from 2024. It is real money for paper promises. So, Frank, thank you very much for that gift. It was very kind of you. And thank you to everybody who tolerated my voice


in this video. Thank you very much for making it to the end. Please remember if you enjoyed this content to leave a like below. Leave me a question that I may answer in a future video. And please, most important of all, remember to please take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you all in the next video.