[Music] hi and I want to welcome everybody to this video I've got Alan hibd with me once again Alan how are you doing I'm great Mike thanks how are you great and so um I've got a presentation on the stock market and precious metals and it's sort of where we're at right now this you know we're at the beginning of a new year and I think that this year is going to be a very very very exciting and for some people scary year uh do you have any feelings on that I agree with everything you just
said excellent so uh I'm going to present something now so uh this is uh the S&P 500 going back to 1925 uh the s&p500 actually started in 1950 uh but Dr Robert Schiller compiled the information required on the 500 largest companies in the United States to take the this all the way back to 1925 actually takes it back to I believe 1890 uh but uh stock charts is using the S&P going back to 1925 here so I've generated this logarithmic chart and for a reminder for everybody uh each inch or
each uh repeat of the same distance on this chart vertically is a uh fixed percentage change so it'll be the same change in percentage gains or losses and what I wanted to talk about first I'm going to cover a little bit of where we are today and then revisit uh the first part of this century and then take a look into the uh 70s uh when the gold bull market started what was the stock market doing and then I also want to just touch on the uh 1929 Great Depression and all of that so here is
today this is uh and what you see here is something that should give stock investors some real trepidation uh this is a classic double top uh and I don't see any bullish pattern in the middle like a well defined there you you could make a case for an inverse Head and Shoulders here uh but you know with gold there were uh there's a whole bunch of bullish fun fundamentals and then we had a whole bunch of bullish technical indicators on top of that and then uh uh and so we broke through something on gold called a
triple top which is a extreme resistance and that uh confirms all of the other bullish signals been looking for something like that in the stock markets and I just don't see it got any comments on a double top and what it means yeah I'm I'm also looking for bullish signals and I don't see any none none here but but if we think about how you know the the Federal Reserve has as as a stated objective of quantitative easing the intentional goal of inflating the stock market to create
a wealth effect which somehow causes people to spend money and stimulates the economy you know that's that's the bullish thing that I see in stocks which isn't even in the chart it's uh it's just kind of knowing how the Central Bank works right but it has also created the bubble which is a negative fundamental for a continued bull market that were already so stretched above anything that resembles reality the stock market has gone crazy and it's this Century it's gone crazy but
especially since 2008 it's just totally insane and it's all because of the feder Reserve manipulation and we know that you know the more you twist and manipulate something out of shape uh the more the the the more vicious the Snapback is when it reverts to mean uh that the free market will always uh cause it will overwhelm the manipulation even by an authority like the Federal Reserve or some other central bank so I just wanted to point out this double top and then you know to say that well the
Dow Jones if we look at that we've already uh exceeded the previous high so the party is on we should you know everybody should rush back into the stock market now because the Dow Jones Industrial Average you know back in when I when I first started noticing the world of finance and I wasn't in it then but when I started noticing it back in the 70s and 80s nobody knew what the S&P was you didn't hear here the S&P 500 mentioned on the news it was the Dow Jones this is what everybody talked about when they
were talking about the world of Finance they said the Dow Jones Industrials did this today uh and so this is the 30 largest industrial companies in the United States but it has hit record highs and so when you're in record highs the trend is your friend you want to rush back into the stock market but wait a minute the NASDAQ is not at record highs it hasn't even put in a double top yet so uh now so we have these non-confirmation uh the the uh the Dow Jones suggesting that the S&P 500 should
start putting in record highs uh and exceed its double top which if if those did should drag the NASDAQ up with it uh but then I want to step back a little take a look at a longer time frame so you've got the double top here now uh this was made January 5th so it's fairly recent but um uh we've got the double top but what I want to look at here is the last time that the S&P put in a double top and this was a big double top uh this is seven years that this double top took to form so if you were an
investor that invested in the year 2000 right when the NASDAQ was peaking and and the S&P was peaking it CED cash and it took you 13 years to get back to break even not inflation adjusted not in real dollars but in nominal terms it took you 13 years and as you know because you were the one that did all the charts on this uh in the book uh we inflation adjusted it using the CP lie which gives us the lowest inflation figures possible and uh we came out with 17 years that an investor was underwater
waiting to get back up to break even if he had started investing I don't know why people keep on rushing back to the stock market when it keeps on punishing you you go back to Wall Street they they say come and let us manage your money and then they whack you over the head with a stick and you just keep on coming back for more got any comments on that yeah I think I know why people keep rushing back to the stock market and uh it's a combination of that's what their financial advisers tell them to do
because that's what they're told is is the right thing to do right it's that 7030 mix of stocks and bonds or 6040 depending on your age and your risk tolerance but like financial advisers don't recommend gold they don't recommend alternative assets like fine art or a whole other host of things because it's harder to make for them to make commissions on those things so everyone goes into the stock market because they're told to and they think they're doing the right thing and it's
only a matter of time before that gigantic rug Pole and you know the the central banks uh stop the flow of currency and uh withdraw the easy credit and everything crashes uhuh so what was happening with this last double top Well turns out the Dow was breaking into brand new highs in 2007 when everything crashed this was saying it's time to party again it's time to rush back into the stock market but just like today the NASDAQ wasn't confirming this is a repeat today is a repeat of you can see the double top uh today also
and the the the it isn't a double top on the NASDAQ on the Dow hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if you'd like to help our Channel please consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we're one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I'm doing with my own Investments thanks for making Golds silver.com your dealer and now back to
the the Dow the today in 2024 we have pushed up into brand new highs just like we did in 2007 on the Dow and you go back to the S&P and you've got two double tops and it turned out that the SNP was the right one to watch here the SNP controlled the others uh the 500 largest companies in America is giving you a picture of what the economy is the NASDAQ is giving you a picture of what tech is doing and the uh the Dow Jones Industrial is the largest industrial companies but being only 30 it doesn't give you a large enough
sample and so um uh the thing to watch here is the S&P and if we're putting in a double top uh just like we did back in uh 19 in in 2007 uh investors lost a lot on that double top how much did they lose well I want to go back even further so this is stepping back so we're getting a picture all the way to the end of the 1974 bare Market this was a huge Plunge in um in the stock market the 1974 bare market and when bounced the in the toward the latter half of 74 uh that's when this giant secular
bull market in stocks from 74 to uh 2000 started uh some people uh like to measure from late 82 here uh but actually I mean you look at this trend it's 74 as the bottom so using Fibonacci retracements and you can explain to the audience what Fibonacci retracements are what Fibonacci numbers are but using that on stock charts uh it shows that you had almost a from the entire bull market starting in 74 if you just rode this thing it was great until it was time to get out in 2000 but most people didn't it is so hard to time
these things and but it isn't as hard to measure them and uh you lost 50% of all of your gains that you made in uh 74 to uh 2000 is uh 26 years and then in the next three 29 years later you had lost 29 years total three years later you had lost half of everything that you made in all of that time and then you waited that uh till 2007 another seven years from the previous Peak to get back to break even and and you said wow here I am I'm finally making gains again and then what happens is you lose uh um uh
60% roughly of what you made in 39 years why does the average investor keep on going back to Wall Street for more after this kind of punishment but they do so here is the the taking a look at this in the really long term and remember the percentage so the crash that we the pullback that we went to from the um uh end of uh 20 22 I think this was or 20 2021 um when the stock market peaked and now we're making a a double top um that is small in comparison to the crash of the NASDAQ this is the S&P but this
coincides with the dates the NASDAQ is sort of what pulled everything down because it was everybody's darling back in the year 2000 and you'll notice that the size of this 50% retracement it's about the same size and people lost about 50% um in their you know uh it's 50% uh from the last runup basically is um and um so the last major where the bull market started and then back here you can see that those are nothing these uh crashes here and here are nothing compared to 1929 this was the uh the Dow Jones was
just a breath away from 400 points it was like 396 I believe and I know that this bottom in 1932 was uh 4.22 points so it was around an 89% crash to close to 90% um any comments on uh history you know they Mark Twain has said to have said that uh it history doesn't repeat but it Rhymes really well and I say that history always repeats but with little twists and uh we we see uh history repeating in here have we learned our lessons from the past yeah I don't know um but to answer your question of of why do people keep
doing this I I I was ort of just reflecting upon um that quote that it's better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally so in other words if you want to still get along with people well it's better to fail actually the same way that other people fail all fail together and then at least you can all all get along and that's what happens in the stock market I mean that's what happened in the Great Depression like everyone was in the same boat they all
failed the same way um but if you somehow succeeded in that period by doing something contrary in or out of the norm uh you sort of like ostracize yourself from from others so I think people are kind of afraid of that yes I suppose that is part of the psychology now I want to turn our attention toward gold and as you know uh you know we have set some last year the end of last year a bunch of record highs were set the last day of trading wasn't the highest on The Daily but in that week was a
record high for the daily but uh professional Traders and good long-term investors will look more at just the daily data this is the weekly data where the breakout of all-time highs in that final week becomes even more obvious and then we have the monthly data uh the gold setting all-time brand new record highs uh at the on the last month of uh 2023 and then the quarterly and the annual there is nothing more bullish than all of these charts lining up at record highs any comments on that yeah exactly you know when we look at the
gold charts for bullish indicators they're pretty clear and then when we look at the stock charts for bullish indicators they're like really hard to find they're like just simply not there so right yeah I think that really tells the story on that same note uh you know I looking for bullish indicators uh I started presenting this th this is probably from uh two months ago or so um maybe three I presented at a h conference in uh Nassau and uh um and so I use this chart to point out a few of
the uh bullish signs there's this big pan and handle that had formed or cup and handle you may have heard it referred to as when it gets long and stretched it's more of a pan and handle when it happens in a shorter time frame and it's got more uh vertical height they call it a cup and handle uh and uh but being that this has developed from 2011 to today this is extremely bullish over the long term for gold that pan and handle and you can see it there and there it is again and then um when uh
Gold Peak right here and started a retreat I did an insiders video and told every all of my insiders I believe this is forming a head and shoulders pattern so what you want to look for is when when as it's pulling back these are probably times that are going to end up being a good buyin point and and one of the last uh um chances to do that before we break into new highs if it is a head and shoulders but I also an inverse Head and Shoulders shoulders forming but I also pointed out that there was this
triple top and now that is normally a very bearish signal you uh go go get up to a resistance area you get up to it again you get up to it again now most individual stocks and stuff when this happens a triple top um it fa it fails to continue the rally so it's over with things break down from there uh but because of all the other fundamentals uh you know since this peak back here the currency the the uh national debt has uh expanded 2.7 times the M2 currency Supply is up 2.2 times and there is I
was going to start this video with like you do a number at the the magic number or whatever at the beginning of some videos I was going to use 2.2 and 2.7 um uh and so we'll get to those but the currency supplies uh the national debt is up 2.7 times uh and then we had this inverse Head and Shoulders forming and what happens when it breaks that resist resistance is usually something that resembles a SL a slingshot move where can we find an example of that look at this an inverse head and shoulders and
then a slingshot move out of it uh so uh let's move on to the ne and and invest at this slingshot move a little bit more um so uh the this is the inverse head and shoulders and the bottom as you can see came down this is um it came out down to right about 700 uh and then uh there was a neckline but this was not a triple top that it that it then violated to the upside which is this is a regular inverse Head and Shoulders and then uh it violated that neckline and Bam we have 1900 2.7 times gains now since this
1900 that's where the currency I believe it's the M2 currency Supply that's either up 2.2 or 2.7 times since then and the national debt is up um the currency Supply is up 2.2 national debt I believe is up 2.7 uh since this and this is also 2.7 times so just for fun uh let's take this same chart and let's overlay today's head and shoulders just for fun I just shrunk down this chart but it it overlays very very well uh it's it's it's a very very close match I I don't
know what the correlation would be if you ran the numbers on this but it would be very very high uh and again we have a triple top here that was then then violated to the upside and uh you know it's it's come back down below that up above it uh but if we take that same 2.7 times gains where would we be today we we' be at $4,300 and so uh um you know you did a video very recently on targets for the gold price and so this is one that is just saying well if the history of 20 the global financial crisis of 2008 now
I am expecting another Global financial crisis that is what I think lies in our future in 2024 and if not 2024 it's G to be 2025 you cannot perpetuate bubbles of the scale that the Federal Reserve has created and the rest of the world's central banks have created and have them last forever the free market sometime or another will overwhelm it got any comments on all of this yeah I mean it feels like we're in one ongoing crisis and it's just the the symptoms that vary I mean the underlying problem is still
there it's not like we solved it and we're like waiting for a new problem to arise it's like uh yeah it's one ongoing crisis and it's only a matter of time until um you know something something big happens I I do think it's coming soon obviously 2024 is an election year it's things seem to happen in election years yeah you know we've uh shown done videos on this before that the Federal Reserve is the the the emergency the crisis did not end in 2008 that's just
where sort of where it sort of began really uh it you know Ben beran papered over cracks and then papered over you know there was QE but then there was QE2 and qe3 and then Powell did qe4 and the crisis has never ended we are still in the global financial crisis of 2008 and it's it's going to get worse and the the bust that is coming I have been calling for years the Bernan bust because it will be his fault because he introduced ber conomics which is a different type of um uh you know what the Federal
Reserve in the world's central banks are trying to do is steer economies so they're trying to steer economics they're not letting the free market uh balance things they're trying to prevent equilibriums from happening and the free market will always seek these equilibriums and uh so and eventually it will over overwhelm the manipulation and the warping that the Federal Reserve and the world's central banks cause and the result is that something that they can't manipulate like the price of gold
suddenly makes up for it so um let's uh that's basically uh the end of this presentation uh any more comments on on where you think this is going and the uh the scale of what what is about to happen because I think that 2008 was just the speed bump on the way to the main event I've said that a hundred times actually Dan was the first one that said it uh but uh we the main event still lies out in front of us and it's going to be worse than 2008 what do you think yeah I do think I do think there's
something coming that'll be worse than 2008 possibly even worse than the Great Depression uh not that I'm rooting for that but it's definitely possible and yeah in terms of the price of gold it's a ratio right it's a ratio essentially of the number of dollars that exist to the number of ounces of gold approximately and so if dollars keep getting created like crazy eventually the price of gold will will account for the imbalance it's just a question of when so if people can be patient
eventually it'll get there my first book dedicated quite a few pages to this uh accounting that gold does periodic throughout history and it does it's it's like an automatic thing it's caused by the free market and the will of the public and the Public's mood are they scared or not uh but it it always ends up covering this and one of the things that uh people in a whole lot of commentators that and and newsletter writers and stuff don't realize and we we are going to be doing a video on this
someday in the future and we'll present all of the data for everybody but the US dollar is backed by gold it's only the paper the Federal Reserve notes all of the gold that was held by the treasury and all of the gold that was nationalized in 1934 all of that gold was uh loaned to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $100,000 gold notes by the treasury the treasury holds the notes the Federal Reserve holds the gold if you look on the federal reserve's balance sheet you'll see that it it is uh one of the
things that backs the Federal Reserve Reserve notes in currency in circulation and uh there at the current value that they place on gold the number of ounces that they have at uh uh 42.2 two22 uh backs 0.4% of the dollar it's 41 of a penny of gold at that price backing the US dollar now if something goes wrong and there's an emergency they can re value gold and at uh somewhere in the 9000s is I think it's like $9,200 $9,300 an ounce right now uh the the US Paper dollar is fully convertible into gold there's
enough ounces at the Federal Reserve to cover every paper dollar printed since they nationalized gold in 1934 any more comments yeah there's always enough ounces it's just uh it would be a higher price a higher ratio yeah yeah okay I want to thank everybody for watching I want to thank you alen for doing this please like subscribe and smash that notification Bell thanks Alan thanks Mike
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