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  I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you back once again. >> Hi again, Charlott. >> Really good to be speaking with you. It's been almost a year since our last conversation, so there's a lot to catch up on. And where I thought we could begin is with gold. We're not even two months into 2026, but already we've seen big ups and downs in gold. So, I thought

we could begin just by getting your take on where we're at in the cycle for gold. >> Well, considering it's almost a year since we spoke last in that time, we've seen gold uh trade up by well, more than doubled, but then since then, well, close to double and since then come down. So, we're currently up around 67% on the last 12 months. And uh that in itself is a phenomenal uh gain in in such a relatively short period of time. And uh and and I think we just we tend to forget that a little bit because just

in the last few weeks the focus has really been on this uh quite dramatic correction we had uh at the end of January and early February. And uh and I think we have to put that into the context of the the the length and the the the verosity of the rally that we saw in the in the weeks leading up to that correction. So what we're going through now is I would say just a very healthy uh stabilization or at least attempt to stabilize um after this parabolic uh rally ran out of steam. So um and it raised the question uh most

certainly whether the the drivers that has been uh that has supported gold and some of the other investment metals uh for for a long time now whether they have suddenly evaporated. I think the the answer to that is is a resounding no and um and that that has been the that has been in place uh since I would say 2022 but really in early since 2000 the early parts of 2025. Is the world a better and more secure place than it was yesterday or last year? Uh most certainly not. Are we still seeing countries governments increasing their

debt pile to the extent where we don't really know how they're going to get under control? That is uh that is a yes as well. Do we still have central banks buying up gold in in uh not in record amounts but at least still in a at a very record rapid pace? We have we we have indeed. So um so the cornerstones for the rally is is still there. uh adding to this uh the the uh the prospect for still for low interest rates in the US. If if the recent uh development on the inflation front can be uh can hold then uh there is a there

is an open invitation for the Fed to cut rates further and that will probably add some additional demand from asset managers around the world who have been uh struggling a little bit with the the high cost of funding. Basically when you buy gold you are giving up on something else that pays you interest rates or dividend and as that uh difference come down it becomes easier to get involved with with the gold market. So um so we see this as as a as a consolidation phase. Uh we pivoting around 5,000 uh

right now and we still have a we still uh have a forecast that could take gold back up towards 6,000 over the next 12 months. >> So gold's drivers remain in place as you're saying. I do think it's important to remind everybody of that and price going higher in 2026. But do you see this current consolidation phase that will continue on for some time? I think it might take a little while simply because the the correction that we had was quite dramatic and uh it probably takes a little bit of time for for for

the marketers to uh to calm down and we we we overall just basically need to see volatility comes down because there's nothing there's nothing gained from these uh these massive moves we had where volatility spiked because what basically happened and that it was actually the reason why I sent out a warning internally but also on on X in the morning of the of the 29th of January. So the day before they're basically just saying, "Hey guys, the plumbing is breaking apart. Uh the uh

the inner the inner functionings of this market is is uh is is increasingly being challenged." So banks stopped uh quoting uh quoting prices to each other. Um the the bid spread was widening out and uh and the the risk appetite was was coming down simply because it's almost impossible to to uh to offset any risk that you were being given or taken by by the market. At the same time when when volatility goes up the spread between physical gold and paper gold. So the futures market goes uh goes goes haywire

as well. So basically it it just become market makers around the world was basically driving blind or in a very thick fog uh like the rest of us and and that's that's a recipe for something eventually breaking and that's what we saw. So I think the recipe for a recovery is really that we need to see market stabilize. We need to see volatility comes down, not these big B daily swings. That basically indicates that there's still quite a bit of a a bull bear battle going on in the market

uh between those still looking for higher price and then still taking profit into into any gains. So, we need to think see this stabilizes and that could take time. Um I think we'll keep an eye on on economic in incoming economic data from the US. Um, I'm sure we're going to talk about oil a bit a little bit later, but right now there are increased worries that there could be another there could be a US attack on Iran. And if that if that happens, that could add a geopolitical risk into uh

into gold. And if we do break certain levels to the upside, then potentially that could signal that that the that the upside path is once again cleared and that will attract some fresh momentum buying into into the gold market. In general, as the gold price goes higher, do people need to expect more volatility? Because I think people are really used to gold as a stable, safe haven. So that's partially why these big moves up and down are a little alarming for some people. Well, it was uh we actually did go

through went through a a uh I would say more a couple of years uh where the gold just continues to grind higher because one thing is grinding high on a daily basis doesn't really that actually lowers volatility because that lowers the risk of uh any any certain price swings but when it's all over the place then volatility goes up. So we can even we can easily have a rally a resumption of a rally happening at a time where volatility stays relatively uh uh muted. So, it's it's all about the the intraday

price swings and and and how how certain or you feel that getting into a position, how certain you feel that you don't get suddenly get stopped out again because of some adverse sudden uh knee-jerk movement in the market. And we've had so many of those in in recent weeks that you really had to place your getting into a position was was really difficult, but also holding on to the position was equally difficult, especially if you're trading uh for for fund managers or hedge funds where you

got leverage. you really have to manage your risk uh very carefully and and and so as the more the volatility contracts also the bigger the size we're going to see being implemented back into the market. Right now speculative interest from money managers in both silver and gold is at the lowest we've seen uh for years almost and that basically means that there's plenty of room to to get back involved back into the market but that requires stable markets with less volatility. So looking forward, you see

higher gold price in 2026. Do you have any thoughts on what could kick off the next like higher? As you mentioned, there are so many factors driving the metal right now. We've got the geopolitical angle. We've got in inflation. Is there any one thing you're looking toward that could end up being that catalyst? Well, we have on on we have unfortunately seen quite a few uh statements coming out from the White House in for many months now that that has unsettled the market and uh we we

these days we're never more than one uh I don't know even what to call them when it's a true social let's just call them a a a tweet even though it's not a tweet but we're just one tweet away from from something uh something happens or something breaking out. So, so that just constantly leaving the market in a little bit of a stressed situation because we just don't know what what could happen next. But besides that, the uh the economic outlook uh is important and I would say especially if we if we

see a clear path towards an imminent uh rate cut in the US, I'm sure that that would uh that would attract some some uh attention and and some some buying interest into the market. also the fact that we are we are heading uh towards a change uh of the chairmanship at the Federal Reserve and um and it would be very surprising if the new uh new Fed chair would not be one that would be more favorable to rate cuts than uh than the current one. >> I want to make sure that we touch on silver as well. Silver's also had

exciting price activity since we last spoke and in the last couple of months. In 2026, do you see it following a similar path to gold or are there different things that could play in? Of course, silver has its precious side as well as its industrial side. So, how are you looking at it? >> Exactly, Charlotte. And now now, now it's probably time where I start to get into deep water with uh with some uh some viewers and listeners because um silver has become almost a religion uh for many many traders and investors

around the world. Uh religious to the sense that it can only go one way and that's higher. And that the market is fixed. It's uh it's driven. It's it's being held artificially down and there's a lot of conspiracies going on and it's just uh we're just on a daily basis fighting through a fog of uh a very messy uh messy stream of comments that that is being shared on social media and on Reddit and whatever you have it and and uh it's it's difficult really to

clear keep the keep things separate here but the way I see it is is that we have a market which where there's no doubt that the demand has been uh exceeding um supply now for a number of years. So so inventory levels are are coming down. We're seeing that inventory levels at exchanges both in Shanghai and in in in New York or in Comx. And that raises the u the the concern that that something could break in the paper market that basically there's if there's a delivery that cannot be delivered from a

derivative expiry simply because there's not enough underlying then we have a a market that becomes unhinged and and could scream higher. My argument against this is is is really that commodities especially those that has have an industrial impact um which is not gold but the silver it's platinum they are also dependent or have has been at least for a number of years uh um or throughout dependent on industrial demand and industrial demand has undoubtly been rising in recent years. It is part of the new new economy, part

of the uh the energy transition, especially towards solar and so on. But there's also there's probably also a limit to where prices can go before demand starts to get negatively impacted. And uh we we don't really know just yet where that level is. But I think we are very close. We have already seen comments from uh from producers in China that they are looking at substitution. So at some point industrial demand will start to slow and that leaves us with um that leaves us with really with the uh financial demand

or the invest investment demand and that will come and go as as themes come and go. We saw the meic craze back in the co days where stocks just stocks took it was was was built to extend whether they just collapsed other afterwards. I'm not saying that's going to happen in silver, but there's a a speculative craze in in in silver right now in the belief that the system is is rigged and it can only go one way and that's higher. And that helped accumulate helped this massive rally we had or search we had back in

January which both was from the west but especially from uh speculators in in the east. I think we also have to just keep in mind that uh it's not that the world has run out of silver. They're running out or they're not running out, but they're low in in stocks of of bars that can be used in industrials and that can be stored, but we're not low in silver when it comes to what's the stock in drawers around the family homes around the world. Um, and and we are seeing an increased uh return of scrap coming into

the market. so much that some places they basically stop taking it because it's they're being inundated with with scrap supply that they they can't hedge properly and they uh and it will take time for that to fill into the market. Just a small example in Denmark, I read at the weekend that at a company in Denmark with I think they have four branches in in a in a small country like Denm with 6 million people that they have taken they bought between four and five uh tons just in the last 3 months.

And uh considering that the global deficit is around 2,000 tons, just imagine if that you can you scale that up to a to a global scale. So when there is an an action, there will always be a reaction. And what we're not pricing in right now, I believe, is the reaction and that is the potential negative impact on industrial demand, but also the potential positive to the impact on supply from scrap coming into the market. So, so gold can gold over time can go to 10,000, it can go to 20,000. It's it's a monetary metal which doesn't

really depends on on on demand from some or from areas where demand suddenly could be negatively impacted with the price. Silver hasn't got that luxury. And that basically means if silver or gold moves towards 6,000, I would believe that I would think that silver at some point will struggle to keep up and we'll see basically gold relatively outperform silver. But u when that point when that time comes, I I can't see it. Again, it's it's very unclear. It's especially given the demand for the the

speculative demand which can carry on uh for for a while longer. >> There's always so much going on in silver. So, thank you for unpacking all of that. And given all of those factors, does Saxo Bank have a 2026 silver price outlook or are we waiting to see how some of these things end up playing out? >> Yeah, I had a silver outlook, but that was hit before we ended we ended January. So uh so trying to come up with forecast is just a fool's game uh right now in in this market because it could

be 50 at the by the end of the year. It could still be above 100. I I I still struggle to see it uh manage to gain a foothold above 100, but I know that goes very much against uh some of the uh some of the outlooks or forecast that is being thrown around out there. But but let's based on uh based on on on um on on gold reaching 6,000 and based on the long-term correlation between gold and silver, which is for the last 30 years has has been uh the average gold silver ratio has been around 70. If we say that

we could say we see that down to 60, well then uh then then that means silver could go back to 100. But but in order for gold silver to do better than 100 with gold at 60 6,000 then the ratio has to come down further below 60. And I I would just struggle to see that um if if if we get these higher price simply because of the potential impact on not only demand uh but also the potential impact on supply coming into the market. And just a small follow-up question, you mentioned the Asian market dynamics for

gold and silver. We have this week the Lunar New Year holiday. So, we've got closures over there. How is that playing into what's happening with gold and silver? And what is it perhaps telling us about the role of Asia in the prices right now? Well, on uh at the start of the Luna New Year, we we saw gold and silver sell off and that was kind of u meant by anyone as being no surprise because the east the demand from the east has been uh been a major factor pulling prices higher for many months and especially in

the last last 6 months and um and and that led to some some belief that we may see a bit of a lull here in the in the next week or so while uh while the Asian markets are closed and uh and especially consider that there was probably some profit taking coming into the market ahead of the uh the close. So who who wants to maintain a position for for 8 days when when you c an't get in or out when the markets are shut. Um that that's u that's probably that's a bit of a tall order for for some traders. So we

probably saw some profit taking before the uh the holiday. The question is really how they how would they respond when they when they come back. And I think if we are if they come back to more or less unchanged prices, they will see that as probably as a buying opportunity simply the and they while they probably hope that they might be able to pick it up cheaper while in the absence. But if we can manage to hold these levels then then there could be a positive story building as we as we see China reopen. But you're absolutely

right, Charlotte. It is a major it is a major driver and and and one that we need to uh to keep an eye on to the extent that if you look at silver there was a silver or there is a silver only uh the only silver only fund in China basically uh in the days prior to the collapse or the correction back in late January trade at almost a 50% discount or premium to uh to the underlying value. So basically investors were prepared to pay a massive premium above the value of what they were actually buying and uh and that tells you a story

about the speculative craze and uh but potentially also the need just to moderate that because uh you just you're really at at risk of ending up losing money when you buy into something at such a high premium to what the underlying is is worth. So, so um the exchanges have stepped in trying to calm down the the speculative frenzy somewhat, but that speculative frenzy will probably be maintained as long as we don't see an improvement in the Chinese property market because that was really the big trigger that started

sending that start sending the investors into the precious metal space over the last few years simply because the property market had been the the key source of savings for for for many years and uh now we've been in a downturn for the last four years and that that has been one of the reason my monies has been redirected into the precious metal market and uh and and it's only I would say a recovery in the property market or recovery in the economy as as a whole providing a great opportunity in the

stock market that that could see this the speculative frenzy start to ease. >> Great points and I'm always excited to talk about precious metals but we should go over to oil which you mentioned at the beginning of the conversation in terms of the geopolitical situation developing between the US and Iran. So for oil, I've been hearing that this is a sector that people might want to start to position in right now, but it will really start taking off in the longer term. But how how are you seeing it? How

are dynamics looking there? >> Well, we have a we have an oil market which is uh at this point in time given the total return. If you if you were buying in buying oil a year ago and you were getting the the benefit of the role or you bought an ETF that was invested in oil, then you basically be sitting on a small profit of around two two to 3% right now. So so oil has not been going anywhere uh now for the last year. It's it's actually up a bit this year uh which is which is offsetting some losses

we had last year. Brent crude is currently up around 15%. And I say it goes a little bit against the uh the the the expectation that that the market generally had at the start of the year where there's a lot of focus on on an overhang of supply or supply clot that was going to be a record size this year. But um the the fact the matter of the fact is instead of trading below 60 and Brent we now trading above trading close to 70 and it highlights two things. First of all that this lot has not

really materialized to the extent that the market was was believing or were looking for. Uh part of that has probably been uh a great deal of u buying from Chinese uh strate into Chinese strategic reserves but also some OPEC plus members have not been able to increase production to the extent that they they had been allowed to through the agreements that they they made last year. So the market is not was not as uh was not as loose as as uh as expected. And then come and then in the last few months we we've seen this geopolitical

risk beam in the last months start to to reemerge. First we had the the the throw overthrow of Maduro in Venezuela and now we the market is focusing on Iran where there's a lot of massive buildup of US military assets around the Iran and and there was a report out today that that we could see something happening sooner than than expected. I have uh I have through this the last few weeks been trying to be uh well been a little bit cynical uh simply in the sense that uh we all know what will happen if Iran is

attacked. We'll see a spike in oil prices. It may be of a short-term nature but it could also be of a of a long-term nature. But what because what is the what is the ramification for an Iran without leadership when there's no opposition. So basically chaos could be the initial um result and that basically means that we could see a prolonged period where where oil supplies may may be kept for or could not cannot reach the market. So high oil prices means high gasoline prices. Gasoline prices is

actually one of the few things that Trump has succeeded in getting down uh in the last year. Inflation is uh inflation was low in the recent latest update. Gasoline prices was mentioned as one of the reasons. So the question is really from a political perspective if they're prepared to risk higher gasoline prices uh by by making this attack. There could be hopes that it could be a quick quick done deal within a few weeks and and then the impact would be limited but um it remains to be seen. I I note

that the market in the oil market right now is is is airing on the side of non disbelief in an in an attack simply because otherwise we would have been we would have been higher than $20 because we have on a daily basis more than 20 million barrels of crude uh going through the straight of Hamuz which is the narrow straight between Iran and Oman and uh not only will Iran production be impacted but also from Saudi Arabia curate and Iraq and the gas from Kata Yeah. So, um, so it's it's really so the market for now is is is is

not really buying in or they they hope that that it's not going to escalate further, but uh um I I I simply don't know. I'm I'm probably a little bit shaken in my belief that it's not going to happen, but uh but let's see. But uh it will if it does happen, then it will it will help even faster to bring down the the glut that the market been focusing on. Russia is struggling to keep maintain production through sanctions. So overall um your the your question at the beginning if the energy

sector is is something that that starting to get back on on investors radar I think the the answer to that is a definite yes. Um we are seeing energy companies starting to to be be looked after looked at again. So um and and simply you have to look at higher prices in years to come simply in order to ensure that that there is enough investment going into finding the oil that is that is going to be needed not only to fulfill uh to to manage replacement um replenish wells that run dry but also to ensure that that the

expected increase in demand in the coming years will continue to be met. So, so I believe that we are uh we are fairly close to a low point in in oil prices and that over time they would have to find a higher level in order to uh to attract the investment that is required and and that would benefit the energy companies. >> Great overview of what's going on with oil. And before I let you go, I want to throw in a question on copper as well because we spoke about that last time. It's another one that I've typically

heard about as a longerterm story, but we have seen record high copper prices this year and it's known as the the bell weather of the economy, Dr. copper. So, how are you seeing the copper market right now? What is it telling us about the global economy at the moment? Well, copper is is a great uh example to pull out, Charlotte, because it it tells the exact story that you need to understand when you look at commodities that the best cure for high price is a high price because it uh it hurts demand

and it incentivizes production. We saw that with cocoa a couple of years ago when we spiked to $12,000. Now we're struggling to now cocoa beans bags are filling up on the on the uh in the harbors in West Africa as in because they can't sell them. And um we we've seen that in in in copper. You mentioned long-term and I think that's really key. The long-term outlook for copper. I think it's difficult not to paint a very positive picture for for the outlook uh for the price outlook for copper. But

but copper and other commodities they are spot traded products. You cannot um it's not like a like an equity market where you can buy a company that you believe will do well in a year or two years from now that price earnings will start to improve and and and you buy it now at when it's cheap. You cannot buy crop now when in in the belief what is going to in the belief that it's going to be high in a years from now because right now the market is actually grappling with an overhang of supply. We

just last week saw that the exchange monitored stocks was stocks monitored by the exchanges on in New York, London and Shanghai uh reached 1 million tons for the first time since 2003. So we basically have a have a short-term overhang of uh of stocks. Some of that partly driven by by the high prices that has has lowered the demand and also the Luna New Year which is is normally a time of year where demand tends to drop off. So so we the question is really how we we see these inventory levels behave

when we get back into March and and April when demand should pick up. But for now the story is not a bullish one. It's a wait and see one simply because inventory levels do not uh under support higher prices at at this stage. But but the longerterm picture I I cannot see any I see a very relatively clear path towards higher prices simply because of the electrification is is gathering momentum and that will require a lot of copper in in the coming years and we know that mining companies are struggling to uh to increase production

to the to the extent that that might be required. So, so with that in mind, uh if you want to uh if you want to get into involved with copper, probably look at the mining companies now. Um and then and if you want to get an exposure to the the pure thing, i.e. the copper itself, really keep an eye on on the the supply demand outlook not in a year from now, but where it is right now. >> Well, this has been really informative. Thank you so much for following me down all these different paths. I'll let you

go unless you had any final thoughts that you would leave investors with right now. only the the one that that I I think we are I think we're still at the beginning of of a a new super cycle or well at least a cycle positive cycling in commodities in in my lifetime we really only had two other major uh and I'm gay so I've been around for for a while and we had one in the ' 70s uh where where we had the oil crisis we had the end of Breton Woods and then we had the one that started around the in the late '9s

running for more than 10 years when China uh joined the uh joined the equation and started to buy up any commodity because to support massive growth and in those two cycles we had some major increases in the commodity space and that's what quite often happened that you can have a decade where nothing happens and then suddenly things really kick off and if we take the low point in 2020 which I know is a little bit of cheating because that was a low point during co then we have already seen prices uh double and so far

it's been a metal story it might be an energy story next and who knows it could be an agricultural story at some point as well down the line but but um we we see see trends major trends unfolding these years that uh that will help underpin the the demand for for commodities. So so from a broad perspective uh from an investment perspective um we we we we like to see or I think it makes sense to have a have a small part of your your investment portfolio uh exposed to commodities. Well, I think that's a great place to

wrap up. So, thank you so much for coming on. This was great. >> My pleasure. Thank you very much. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Olansen with Saxo Bank. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.