China's a big buyer, but they're not the only buyer. >> Mhm. >> Um but but the point is that that's not speculative buying. I mean, China isn't buying gold to flip it. I mean, this gold's not going to see the light of day for who knows how long. China is buying to have gold as a reserve to replace the dollar. And I think that's what a lot of other central banks are doing. They're buying gold to restore gold as, you know, the monetary backing of their of their currency. And this I think is a


major transformation in the global monetary system. I think it's on the order of or maybe bigger than what happened in the 1970s when we went off the gold standard. And so the world went from having the US dollar backed by gold as the reserve to just having a fiat currency as the reserve. That was a significant shift in the monetary order. But now it's not the US going off the gold standard. It's the the world going off the dollar standard and returning to the gold standard. And I think that's


probably even more significant certainly for the United States because we're about to have the rug pulled out from under us. And you know, we've been living off of the uh dollar's reserve status. We've used it as a crutch to live beyond our means. uh we've enjoyed uh lower consumer prices and lower interest rates and higher asset prices as a result of this privilege that I think we are in the process of of losing. So when you point to these other moves up in gold and silver, I think


they were largely driven at the peaks by speculators, you know, by retail investors who were, you know, jumping on the bandwagon and pushing the markets to, you know, kind of extreme points and then they would go down. I don't think we've even seen that yet. I think that retail investors have barely participated. In fact, if you look back at the flows from all of last year and most of this year, retail investors were selling gold ETFs. They were selling gold stock ETFs. So, they sold into the


rally. They they weren't buying. Uh, in fact, if you talk to a lot of the um, you know, the the smaller coin shops around the country, and I've seen interviews, most of the people that came in over the last few months were people that were selling their gold. They were like bringing in their jewelry to melt it down and and get some cash. It wasn't a frenzy of people looking to buy gold. And the institutions, you know, are barely involved. the pension funds, the endowments, hedge funds. I mean, they


barely have any position in gold. It wasn't until just recently that you saw, you know, more talk from, you know, Ray Dallio or well, although Jeff Gunlock has been talking gold for a while, but a few other people, Morgan Stanley came out in the last month. I think one of their analysts said that we should tweak the 6040 portfolio to be 60 2020 where you split your bonds in half and you buy gold. But I doubt they've had any opportunity to make the switch. I mean, they've just started to recognize gold's


value after denying it for decades. You know, I've been in the investment business for, you know, over 35 years, and I was pretty much a lone voice, you know, as a stock broker, telling my clients that they should have an allocation to gold in their portfolio. when I went on major financial networks to talk about it, they generally laughed at me or they accused me of fear-mongering or just trying to sell gold, you know, when I mean they, you know, they didn't accuse a stock broker of recommending a stock because he's


just trying to sell stocks. And of course, I was both, right? I was in, you know, stock broker, but I also thought that people should have gold as part of their portfolios. But that was like, you know, uh, sacriiggious. But now people are starting to say, "Hey, wait a minute. Given the fact that gold has outperformed stocks over the last 25 years, if you go back to 1999 when the Dow peaked at 45 ounces of gold, today it's worth, you know, it was 11. I didn't do the math today, but it was,


you know, just recently down to 11. That was a 70% decline. The price of the Dow Jones measured in real money, measured in gold. And given the fact that just holding gold, you know, in a shoe box beat the Dow, and I'm not talking about just the price, it actually beat the return because the dividend yield has been pretty low over these, you know, these uh years. You got you actually did better just holding holding a gold coin. And and so I guess, you know, given that I think Wall Street finally recognizes


that yes, gold has a place in your portfolio. And if that's the case, well, this rally has a long way to go because that means a lot of investors have a lot of gold they need to buy. Meanwhile, the central banks are are are getting started. I don't think they're nearly complete in their transformation of their reserves. Uh they still have a lot of dollars to get rid of and a lot of gold to buy. Clearly, when gold is at 4,000 and it was at 2,000 2 years ago, the dollar has lost half of its


purchasing power in terms of how much gold you can buy with your dollar. So, the dollar is losing value against real money right now, but so are the pound and the euro and the yen and all these other currencies. But I do think that you're going to start to see the dollar losing a lot more value relative to its fiat counterparts either, you know, before the end of this year or or next year. And and that's going to speed up the rise in the price of gold in dollar terms. But I think it's currently


offering you a signal that that's going to occur. And I think gold is climbing as a mirror of a decline of confidence in the dollar because I think the primary reason that gold is being stockpiled is because central banks have lost faith in the dollar and in you know the fiscal discipline of the US government or any reliability of the Federal Reserve. So you're witnessing it first in gold. I think you'll subsequently notice it in the dollar and then I think you'll observe it after


that in the Treasury market where you'll start to notice a major fall in bond prices and a climb in long-term yields despite the fact that the Fed is going to be cutting short-term rates. And I think that is going to be the trigger for a comeback to quantitative easing because I think the Fed is going to attempt to reduce long-term interest rates through its open market operations where it must print money to purchase the bonds that the rest of the world is offloading. And so that I think will be


another trigger to push gold to even greater levels because that's just enormous inflation. And you know the last couple of times we implemented QE inflation at least the way the government claims to measure it was below 2%. So the government was capable of defending QE by saying look you know inflation is below target and so we could implement this because the goal is to get inflation higher to reach our target and so you know we're going to achieve that with QE but if inflation is already far above 2%. What is the


justification for producing more inflation? How do you defend QE when inflation is 4 or 5% the way the government calculates it? That's easy. The Fed just adjusts its inflation target to 3% quietly and then you've got more QE to be defended. Oh, but that would I don't think they could attempt that because just shifting it to 3%. Once you shift the goalpost once, well, now you've already damaged trust because if you can shift it to three, you can shift it to four. But even shifting it


to three is a major gamecher because that means a 50% rise in annual inflation. I mean, what does that do to the present value of gold if inflation is going to be 50% greater from now until the end of time? But of course, they're not going to reach three because if they abandon two and they shift to three, well, then they're going to abandon three. They've already demonstrated that their target is BS when they're above it. They don't have, you know, the monetary nerve to do what


it takes to push inflation down to 2%. Well, then why would they have it to push it down to 3% or 4%. So, I think, you know, once they shift it, they're finished, which is why they probably won't. I don't know that they're formally ever going to say that they have a target of three. I think they're going to maintain a target of two, but they're just never going to reach it. And I thought it was really absurd in the last FOMC meeting. Somebody actually questioned pal about the you know about


his projection because he noted hey you know two years ago you estimated that in two years inflation would be 2%. And now it's 2 years later and it's far above 2%. And you're still estimating that we will have 2% inflation in 2 years. And he said you know why should we trust you? I mean, what makes you more certain now than you were two years ago when you made the same estimate? And Pal basically said, "Look, we don't really know where inflation is going to be in 2 years. It's just that 2% is our target.


So, that's our projection. We just presume that we're going to reach our target, but we have no clue." So, in other words, they just invent it. The only reason they project 2% is because they want it to be 2%, not because they think it's going to be 2% or they have any basis to believe that it's going to be 2%. So they could just keep on claiming 2% inflation just to pretend that they've got that target. But you know, we're not going to go anywhere close to it. What they may do to try to


get nearer to 2% is not change the target, but modify the CPI. I mean, that's how the government functions. You adjust the methodology for calculating the CPI so that you get a smaller number. That's what they did with the Bzen Commission. That's why the whole CPI is meaningless today because, you know, it's been manipulated by the government to have a low. If your priority right now is not chasing returns, but protecting what took decades to build, I've put together a private road map linked below. If your


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