gold news

 I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Ela Corbani, head of mining at Mumble Finance and manager of the Global Gold and Precious Fund. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you as always. >> Thank you very much Shalot. Uh each time we meet it's it's a nice recap. So, uh I'm more than happy to to go through what happened in 2025 and of course what we expect to see uh um in the short term 26 at least 26 maybe 27. >> Yes, that's exactly what I was thinking

we would do today. Typically, we have these conversations once a year at this time. And I was looking back to the conversation we had a year ago. We were still talking about $3,000 gold. you laid out the path on how gold could get to 30,000. Of course, it got there in 2025 and well beyond. So, let's take a look back at last year and what was behind gold's strong outperformance. >> It's we we've always been uh we've always said that gold was cyclical. We always said that uh uh the the two uh

most uh uh uh um uh coherent uh uh uh uh uh corroboration with the price of gold or real rates and and uh and the US dollar. And we we've been saying for a while that at least since 2022 that rates were uh uh going lower and and that the US dollar was going to weaken. So those main uh uh points haven't changed. It's it's almost boring to repeat them uh uh uh when when we are asked the question and when we we want to hear our people investors want to hear our scenario. But uh but the theme

is the same um except except that uh uh we had some new uh factors which uh made uh the appetite for gold and silver uh stronger and uh and these are fundamental reasons. We're going to go through them if if you want, but they they helped trigger more interest, more demand for for for gold and silver and and the other uh precious metals. But but we I mean gold went up by 65%. If we have to run the numbers, gold was up by 65%, silver by 100 uh almost 150%. Uh but and and you read in the news that

this was the best year ever for for gold in since 1979 and u and this is and this is true and this is true. There's I mean I'm not going to to debate this fact but when we reach a point where it's not there is no consensus on on interest rates and still and there the direction on interest rates and still when there is no consensus on the US dollar and when you add uh uh the consequences of uh the the war between Russia and Ukraine and the triggering more demand from central banks for for for for gold. [snorts] uh

when you see the deficits uh climbing, when you see the debt uh reaching some uh exponential levels, all these added together make you say what I never thought I I would say to an investor uh that uh in my 30 plus years of career is that this time is different and the fact that for me to say such uh to make [clears throat] such a huge statement uh this time is different. It mean when when you know my my profile of being very very conservative uh investing in the sector knowing how volatile it is

well it makes you wonder. So in August of this year I was sitting making a presentation to a client in an institutional client and and we ended up I didn't know whether he was convinced or not by my uh presentation but but at the end we stood up uh uh he uh uh uh uh led me to uh u uh to another room where we had a coffee and and I told him you know what I hate saying this, but this time is different. This time is different. And it's true that we cannot and should not only look at it as a cycle. It's much more than a cycle.

And yes, gold had an outstanding performance in 2025, up 65% not seen in in more than 40 years. But but if you look at history, you know for a fact that gold did perform better than just what we saw in 2025 in some specific instances and um and this is what I think we are we have to look at. We have to look at the big picture. And the big picture is and I will let you ask me more questions, but but the big picture is when you have the uh uh uh the tightening of the central bank, moving to a pause, moving to uh uh uh lowering

rates and we are in that phase of lowering rates. Then what follows is quantitative easing. And we have were exactly I mean the the the chairman of the the Fed said it in December and and acknowledged the fact that it was a little early to do it and he was himself shocked and surprised to do it so early uh versus what they had were expecting. And this is why you had a new round of appetite for or demand for gold. It's because we moved not only to uh towards that phase of lower rates but we also

started that quantitative easing. And when you start quantitative easing usually usually it's it's it favors definitely an asset like like gold or precious metals in general. And silver followed up. And silver followed up because uh it follows or the correlation is is extremely high. and and from a gold to silver ratio of 100, we went down to 60 today or something like this, 58, 59. And and if gold is going to go higher, which we think it is going to go higher, uh well, suddenly uh you should definitely

see silver catching up. And silver catching up doesn't mean only silver performing as well as gold. And a lot of in uh uh investors are saying what I'm saying. But reaching that uh extreme level uh ratio level of 40 gold to to silver would mean technically that we silver could go to $200 assuming that s gold goes to 5,000 but we believe that gold is probably going to to go beyond $5,000 the ounce the ounce. Great recap of gold and silver in 2025 and we have so many directions that we can go in. So

for you to recap a little re rates and US dollar most important for gold plus now we have all these additional factors that you were going through. I wanted to start by talking about rates because we're in kind of an interesting situation where we have President Trump has said he wants lower rates. Jerome Powell's term is expiring in May of this year. So we're in a situation where probably somebody will will come in who's more amendable to what Trump would like to do. So what do you see coming

for interest rates in the US this coming year? >> Since the summer of 2022, uh we uh we have kept uh we maintain our uh objective of equilibrium uh uh levels for uh fed fund rates around 2.5%. were three 3.6 6 3.7 uh uh basically we do think that before we get to any other lower level we have to reach that 235% uh fed fund rates and and we are heading in that direction but there is no consensus for that and this is why I do believe that gold can go much higher because gold the price of gold today

does not incorpor incorporate the conviction that that rates are going to go much lower than than what they are at at present time. So that's one what what we think is that the only way the only way for the uh the executive the American executive the only way to extend the cycle the growth cycle the only way is to lower interest rates. So you will not only you will have as you mentioned the president of the United States who wants lower rates but you will have the next chairman of the Fed who will uh not only um uh uh

believe that the country the economy needs lower rates but will basically follow the instructions of uh uh the executive and and you also have the treasury which basically also wants wants lower rates. So I don't understand why it's so complicated to accept that uh uh what the three biggest uh uh um actors in that field want and will will will implement. So, so to us it's obvious, it's clear we're heading toward lower rates and with lower rates you will have a lower currency. Not only because of

the debasement but also because this is the only way I mean if you have to pick one tool just one tool to uh uh uh to create growth uh in a weakening economy it's it's it's the use of the currency. the the best weapon or tool to to trigger more growth is is is the the currency and the Fed, the Treasury and Donald Trump, they know it very well. So we will have a lower currency not only because other uh institutional uh actors want to be exposed to fewer dollars but also because that's the only way for the

American government to trigger or to maintain the growth in their in the economy. >> So lower rates in 2026 weaker US dollar. I'm wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the quantitative easing situation because when this this news came I know a lot of people looked at it and they said well it's not quite quantitative easing but essentially it is. So can you can you talk a little bit more about how you see it? >> Well again we I don't see why there is a debate about uh whether it is

quantitative easing or not. The Fed stopped buying uh uh uh uh a few a few months ago uh and now is basically in the mode of uh uh basically buying up to $40 billion of Treasury bills every every uh every month. And they mentioned, it's true that they mentioned that uh for now that program is supposed to last until April of 2026, but uh let's meet two two months down the road or 3 months and you will probably understand that it's not only uh five months or four months program of buying

buying back treasury bills and building again growing the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve but it will last much longer. So quantitative easing is a natural natural outcome of uh uh uh a pause in interest rates. This is this is the nature of the economy. You have cycles and we are in that phase of the cycle where we need to lower interest rates. We need to lower interest rates to get some growth and help the real estate market and help the consumers and help uh uh uh demand basically uh to to

maintain a level of of growth. And that to do that we need to lower interest rates. But since nobody really knows where we're heading for the infl on on the inflation front, it's confusing everybody. But but again the Fed, the Treasury and the White House want lower rates. You would be a fool a fool not to think that this is the direction they are taking. I'm not talking about the the labor market of course which is which is in limbo. So uh uh limbo is maybe exaggerated but you have a lot of

pockets within within that labor market that are extremely weak extremely weak. So um uh and it keeps deteriorating. It has been deteriorating for the last two and a half years and and for the last three to four months the Fed had decided to to approach the the this topic and is indeed recognizing that the labor market could be uh uh a problem uh in in 2026. So to I mean and you have the midterm elections and and and you have some uh some promises that were uh uh uh uh thrown uh at uh uh the voters uh in in

the previous campaign. So the whole picture makes a lot of sense that we need lower rates. We will get lower rates and re irres uh regardless of uh the inflation uh uh the inflation numbers regardless and if that's the case and if if the inflation which we don't believe is going to be uh uh uh to stay at these levels north of 2% well it will be good for interest rates uh for real interest rates and therefore for gold. So, a little bit of inflation and lower rates is the jackpot for gold. Um, the US

currency is going to follow suit. Um, usually between the end of the uh quantitative tightening and the end of the quantitative easing, usually gold doubles or triples, which means that in a in a perfect world, gold could go to well could go from $4,000 to $6,000. This is basically the bulk figure. So that's why when we say $5,000 we that's only 10% more than what we are trading at today. It's it's really not uh not only far-fetched but it's it's it's very much uh uh uh in uh a realistic target.

>> And 5,000 is that a gold target for 2026 or is that longer term? >> No, no, no, no. It's for the very short term. So um uh give it give it a few months and the market will will understand that will compromise on that nonconsensial approach to the direction of rates and and and it's uh and we need time and you know and this is normal and we have we need that time to position ourselves. So let's not be impatient. Let it let the flow uh go and uh and the data will will definitely uh demonstrate that uh we are

in that environment where you know a lot of actors want to reduce their exposure to treasury bills, international actors where the the fiscal policy is going to reach its limits and the only way again to uh extend that economic cycle will be to lower rates. That's that's the scenario we we've been uh discussing with our clients for the last two and a half years and we're not changing uh it uh by by by a comma right so if we put all of these factors together what is your overall outlook for the US

economy I think every year I ask you are we going into a recession what's going on there you mentioned we've got higher inflation labor market not looking so good what's your your view >> [sighs] >> I think that there's a huge dichotomy between uh what the official data are showing which is an economy that is very resilient and a lot of pockets of that uh economy that are extremely weak. And um and when you know that uh a very marginal portion of the population is responsible for

this growth, it makes a lot of sense to to make the statement that the economy is not doing well. But you know if you look at the number you think okay we're we're in in in a perfect world where um inflation hyperinflation or a high level of inflation has been uh fought uh uh um successfully and uh we have an economy that is still uh north of the 2 and a half%. And this is frankly this is this is this is wonderful but the reality is that a lot of people are suffering. A lot of people are suffering. So

I I I and and these people are not consuming. So uh uh and you know with this world is full of uh anxiety induced uh uh uh information. And uh so we mentioned the the the debt level, we mentioned the labor market, we we mentioned all these uh uh um uh wars uh around us and AI affecting uh uh we don't know how will will be affecting us in a in a way that that we have probably not figured out yet. So a lot of questions, a lot of doubts and a lot of de uh imbalances and when you have all this uh to answer your question

uh only only a very aggressive monetary policy will be able could hopefully prevent a recession but but a cycle is a cycle and I don't believe that uh we will avoid uh slow down uh of the economy. It's it's uh the same I won't say that this time is different because an economic cycle is an economic cycle but for gold it's different because of all those layers that are being added to what the negative correlation with real rates and the dollar are represent for for for the price of gold. Yeah, I understand what

you're saying there. And I also want to check in with you on the stock market in the US because there's been all these concerns about AI bubble. The upward momentum has continued for too long. Do you see a correction there coming as well as we're moving forward? >> I think that uh a a 10% 15% correction uh would be healthy. Uh but I think that as long and don't forget that the market is forwardlooking. So as long as we are going to give the market what he wants basically uh lower rates, lower taxes

and we're heading there. uh and the impact on earnings. I mean right now everybody's throwing uh earnings growth in the north of the double well uh uh digit. Uh so why wouldn't so even though I do would like to see a healthy uh uh correction frankly uh war we might not get it. we might not get it because because if we have this fiscal regime and this monetary policy uh impacting the fundamentals of the companies uh publicly listed companies well in that case uh that that bull market could last

could last at least uh another year very much so. So I wouldn't I want to be on the defense but I recognize that the uh uh uh the language that is being used is used in a very very smart way uh to reassure the the investors and that's why very few institutional investors have cash. They are most of them fully invested. So um again this is a contrarian uh uh uh indicator but um but with if the earnings are growing the logic would be for the equity market to continue uh performing well. I want

to ask you about gold stocks as well because again if I look back to our conversation we had a year ago. We were still waiting for gold stocks to start taking the higher gold price into account and their results and obviously now that has happened. So for you when you look at gold stocks you're thinking that the gold price is going to go higher where are you seeing the most opportunity in the equities? >> Very good question. Um it's uh uh so that second part of the bull cycle is always dedicated to the

theme of growth and we will see we will see more appetite for deposits that are not in production are that are fundamentally uh decent but mismanaged. And um I think that you want to be positioned in um companies that have one of these attributes that are not uh priced by by by the market. So this is what we are trying to do. Um yes we uh we own the barracks and the new mont but we also own some uh names that are not covered by uh uh most of the brokerage houses and and and bas to give you an idea 70%

of uh the the fund is invested in uh non-indexed names. So we are trying to go where either there is a producer that could make significant changes to its profitability all things being equal so with a flat gold price or uh identifying deposits which have the qualities to become a mine uh and and are under the radar. So now that I told you this, I would I would definitely look at the explorers, the developers, uh because they still are the future in that second part of the of the bull cycle. So, but but once I said this, if

when gold goes uh north of $5,000, the balance sheets of the gold miners, the producers is going to be phenomenal. It is already outstanding. So um so there will be a lot of cash and uh this cash uh will be used for buybacks like it's done presently which is a smart way to do it. Uh but we shouldn't be doing it too long uh and and we are we are investing in uh in the future in growth and this is what you want to see. So the minute you're going to see a company making an acquisition that is accretive,

it's very important. It has to be accreative. Uh it will be rewarded, a deposit that is growing in size, that is not being mined, uh will gain in value and discoveries. But but we shy we shy away from you know pure explorers because there is too much uh there there is a very high riskreward ratio but but this is not our u mandate. Our mandate is is is to invest in in qualitative names and and and special situations. >> So this is the approach for gold stocks. Are there any differences in how you're

looking at silver stocks right now? >> So, uh, as it stands now, uh, we believe that silver could definitely outperform gold. Definitely in that environment, most probably will. We do believe in that extreme gold to silver ratio of 40 that we hit once uh over the last 25 years. But uh, but again, this time is different. So um uh there are too many reasons uh to lose faith in uh um what could be run uh in in in the running of public money. There is it's I mean it's it's unbelievable

what we have achieved in in the last 8 years uh in the destruction of of public money. So uh again uh this will have to be to be uh uh we will have to respond to this and the only way will be a monetary approach and the monetary approach is is is favoring uh precious metals. So um that's how I see it. Silver. Yes. Silver names. Yes. I would definitely uh uh all the silver deposits are known. All the which are not in production are known. So uh so it's all about finding the u less expensive the most uh uh uh

rewarding names uh whether it's through uh discoveries uh of the the increasing the size of the asset or obviously by as a takeover candidates but um but it's going to be hard to find more silver deposits. Very hard. It's going to be very hard. I think I understand what you're saying there when it comes to gold versus silver. And just one more follow-up question on silver. I was wondering, so the short-term price target for gold 5,000, do you have a a price target or range in mind for silver in the short

term or or the longer term? No, longer longer term we in that environment u gold needs to go beyond 5,000 for silver to go beyond 150. Okay, let's let's be be very clear but so we there is no frost basically what I'm trying to say is that there is no frost yet. I don't see the frost in that in that market which is very reassuring and this is why we are very comfortable saying that there is much uh uh their potential for uh reaching new highs historic highs is is uh is very very significant. So as long as I don't

see the frost, I'm not worried and my targets can increase naturally because there is no speculation. You had the last two weeks of the of the year some speculation and repositioning and arbitrage. This is this is noise. Let's let's forget this. But if we focus on the bigger picture um there is no frost and uh I mean look at the number of shares outstanding in the ETFs they are uh 20 or 30% be below their peak. I mean it's it's still unbelievable when silver is at almost 80 and and gold is at 4500.

So uh there is no frost there is no appetite for the gold miners and they are building cash like crazy. So I will start being very concerned uh and will change my uh uh uh statements uh scenario when I see that speculation coming and I haven't seen it yet. So are we going to have hiccups? Of course we are going to have hiccups. Are we going to need time to digest a 25 30% run in the precious metal? Of course we will we will need time to digest it. But the trend is still intact for us to reach

higher levels. >> Well said. So focus on big picture. Don't pay attention to the noise. Before I let you go, I think this has been a it's been a great overview, but any final thoughts you'd share on the precious metals? Well, uh I you know it's this your question reminds me of of a meeting I had with with the um uh the uh uh executives of a mining company and I told them uh that I was basically going to invest in them because I saw huge potential in in in in ketchup. uh uh uh u

reevaluations and uh uh and they I usually I never say this but it was so obvious to me so obvious to me. So uh the same way I told I I I I told them that I believed in their uh strategy and and their execution and that uh their price didn't uh uh uh incorporate those uh uh the talents that that I had recognized. The same way I will tell you that uh as long as there is no consensus on rates are the dollars, as long as there is no uh uh an excessive speculation in the sector and those mining companies

paying ridiculous prices for uh uh marginal assets that will never never come to uh uh to life. then you will hear me have a different different speech. The same way and I will finish by saying that I've always told our investors, our clients that usually gold miners uh you know that it's the end of the cycle when those gold miners reach a peak of profitability in the 25 30%. I've always told them that and I've always told them that we need to sit down around the table when we reach those levels so that

we discuss whether there are new elements that convince us that there is more upside potential or not and today we are at this juncture and I'm sitting down with them and we are discussing open discussions but we all have come up to the conclusion that the upside is still significant and we are sticking to our scenario uh uh at least for 26 and maybe 27. >> Well, I think that's a really nice place to wrap up. Thank you so much for coming on to share your thoughts about gold and silver. It's always great to have you on

right at the beginning of the year. >> Thank you very much, Charlotte. Always a pleasure. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Elen Kovani with Mambbleow Finance. Thank you for watching. If you like this [music] video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.