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 than k you I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing News Network and here today with me is Keith weiner founder and CEO of monetary Metals thank you so much for joining me online today it's great to see you again thanks thanks for having me Charlotte really good to be speaking with you and we're here because you just published a report on how not to think about gold it's a really interesting report and we're going to go through a lot of the stuff that's in there what I want to

begin with though is kind of flip the topic on its head and discuss how we should think about gold which is something that you go into at the end of that report so one of the things that you bring up is the US dollar and the problems that you see there and this is a key reason why people should think about owning gold but I was interested to see that you don't talk about a collapse in the dollar and I wanted to begin there because we are hearing these more extreme headlines right now about the

dollar so if we could just start there and hear from you about what's actually going on with the dollar right now and perhaps how that relates to gold so a lot of things going on but as far as collapse um somebody posted a Twitter and I'm trying to remember who a couple of weeks back it was a collection of I think time headlines about the coming you know death of the dollar going back to I think the 1950s or 1960s so it's a perennial favorite topic that people love to predict and you know it's

the old joke about you know successfully protected 17 of the past zero hyperinflations uh you know kind of thing every time there's you know something ugly going on geopolitically or otherwise at War um you know I think back to the 1960s Vietnam um and everybody just goes to their their favorite uh you know horse to whip I guess even if the dollar but um I think people should really look at it as there's one currency world and how to say Dollar World and uh you know if you thought of all

the other uh you know currencies first of all it's dollar derivatives that is that they derive from the dollar they're backed by dollars um and uh in a certain sense they're almost like you know in the late 19th century the Western Virginia coal mining company town that would issue their script their paper script and then imagine if somebody saw that somebody from one company called Money Town doing business and trading with somebody from a different company called mining town and somehow they accepted the

script of the opposing count and then the headline in the local paper about how the the script was replacing the dollar you kind of have to shake your habits that's pretty provincial that is that's not going to happen um the world depends on dollars everybody has dollar debts which means they're desperate for dollar revenues um and when everybody is choosing what currency to hold you know it's one thing to say okay you know so and so country bought let's say oil from another

country and they paid and you know remitted in whatever you know currencies that might be but what currency do they choose to hold until the millisecond before the transaction it's not that other countries currency nobody wants to be accredited or Putin for example nobody's choosing to so it holds the currency in your your Landing you're becoming accredited to that country nobody's choosing to be accredited or Putin or she or Modi the little uh uh right and then so they remit in that currency and then what

does the other side do right after they receive whatever currency they may turn around and swap it for dollars anyway because people preference for what they choose to hold isn't necessarily the headline of what the transaction was done in and so um there is no paper currency that can replace the dollars one thing that can replace the dollar but ain't nobody want that so it's a shiny yellow metal with a four-letter word ain't nobody want that and meanwhile in terms of other paper

currencies forget about it as they say in New York okay so for you when it comes to rumors about the dollars in death those are exaggerated but you do see a decline in the dollar coming in some way and this is why we should think about owning gold so I wondered if you could talk a little bit about that the future of the dollar as you see it because I think that's really important for people to understand here I I think I would emphasize I see a decline of the entire dollar regime and all of its derivatives

so you think it was a dollar as the Titanic you know all the other currencies or various bits and pieces of the ship they're not succeeding against the dollar the whole thing is failing uh you know in more objective terms um you know the reason is right so people think to it as a quantity thing right I mean that the FED uh you know the dollars official manager or Central planner can um you know increase the quantity of dollars that are out there that's certainly true and then they tend to get caught up in counting you know

dollars there's all these different debates as to what's the right measure of the money supplies that have zeros and three to some other Austrian money supply or true money supply or whatever um but the real root of it is they cheat in fact that's not a bug it's a feature let's say intention of the system gold yes it's true has the finite quantity and it's not very easily increased because it's a great risk and cost and all the rest of that gold mining uh is not an easy business a gold exploration

that's doubly so but the thing with gold is you can't really cheat you start cheating and you lose all your depositors um and so you know that was amply well understood by the time they created the fed and and the other central banks and the whole point is to achieve every time something comes along they just say well let's just you know change the rules let's just tinker so Lake Pizza or early 2009 people said you know even if it may or may or may not have been the cause of the crisis and

certainly exacerbating the crisis the banks have to mark their losses uh to Market on their balance sheet let's change the accounting rules and the banks no longer have to you know if a bank have bought something at a dollar and it's now worth 10 cents they can still keep it as a dollar on their books for statutory purposes and Reporting purposes and they changed that rule of financial accounting standard or change that rule I want to say it was March or April of 2009. that was like to the day that the

stock market had its final bottom and then began a new bull market and and on on the heels of not any kind of improvement in the economy but in in the change in in accounting treatment to move from greater honesty to lesser honesty that's the decrease in honesty of reporting ironically we have a banking crisis today and um the Silicon or incipient crisis I guess it's not a full-blown crisis yet Silicon Valley Bank uh was was saying that all these bonds are holds of maturity therefore we

can keep them at a dollar even though they've lost 20 or 25 percent and then they get an outflow deposit if they have to start selling them that's when they realize the losses that's when people start to realize that they're realizing losses saying wait a minute this bank is insolvent yeah and so so all you know you can declare that you know you never intend to sell but that's you have no uh you have no means to make out on that promise ultimately so the managers of the system keep on cheating

and so uh Silicon Valley Bank fails and at first they said okay anybody with less than the statutory um 250 000 deposit you know there which is FDIC I'm sure their funds are available on Monday everyone else is getting can whatever it is 40 cents on the dollar until we figure out what happens liquidation which will take months or years then by Sunday they said oh by the way another bank failed Signature Bank and um yeah uh everybody's deposits even over 250 000 are going to be covered and so the law just goes

you know out the window and uh you know can you really count it I know they can count on that they didn't change the law they just said we're suspending it because Silicon Valley Bank is systemically important all of a sudden they've declared that and um so with each thing that they do it has to make creditors pause and just think do I want to be a creditor to this and if you don't want to be a creditor gold is the thing you buy gold being money that that's kind of my unique View

and even other Austrian economists will argue with me about that is also it's a definitional thing and when money's generally accepted me to exchange I think well gold being money and one thing you can understand clearly if you realize that money is the thing you hold if you don't choose to invest it in anything else so if you don't want to buy properties you don't want to buy shares you don't even want to be accredited to a bank what's the one thing you hold well you

hold the gold coin in your hand and um so we see that today of course the gold price is absolutely robust uh near you you know all-time highs in US Dollars making new all-time highs in certain other currencies and um you know it's unloved not talked about it was the opposite of Tesla or any of the other you know Meme stocks at their peaks um and and uh you know yeah it's really high I think people are saying well I don't I don't want to hold the bank deposit I'd rather hold gold because yes

there's price risk with gold but there isn't risk that my gold could go away if uh if the bank turns out to be less solvent than I thought right and I think a related point that you mentioned in the report and I wanted to highlight was you mentioned you know if we are in a scenario where there's a collapse in the dollar you're not going to come out of that in a profit right that's not going to be good for people and and this is again another reason that people might want to look at gold

so I wondered if you could go over what you mean there because I think that that might be something that people forget or don't think about all the time yeah I think it's easier to say okay what you know what if gold goes to twenty thousand dollars so you buy it today at 2 000-ish goes to 20 000 ish you have a 10x gain and you know with that idea of gain comes the idea that I profited I increased in my wealth in some way but if you realize that gold is money then that makes a dollar something else

it's an irredeemable credit issued by a profile look at borrower with neither means nor intent to repay big mouthful but you know I'll stand by every word of that and you realize it's the dollar going down and not volts on up and you start to say well wait a minute did gold go up it went from two thousand to twenty thousand went up in terms of what in terms of something that we just said Has Fallen so imagine uh I like I like to try to create a visual for people to picture this and have two

that I'll use one is imagine you take a break you're staying at the top of a cliff you take a break and you strap a GoPro camera to it um when you throw the brick over the edge of the cliff and right after that you throw a piece of plywood now both of them are going to fall The Brick will fall faster because it has a greater mass the surface area ratio therefore will overcome wound friction and hit higher terminal velocity from the perspective of the camera which is attached to the brick the word appears

to be drawing up and and so you just have the wrong vantage point or for that matter the top of the cliff which isn't going anywhere appears to be going up and so that's the Distortion of using the dollar try to measure something like that the other analogy I like to use is imagine you're on the deck of a ship which is both sinking slowly because there's a leak in the side and um there's a big storm and there's waves going up and down and so imagine you're standing there with somebody and you're

saying to this other person and you're looking at a lighthouse I'm sure then why is the lighthouse going up and down and mostly up well is it and then imagine sharing the idea that the White House is going to go up uh you know 50 feet relative to where the lighthouse is now well is that really a good thing if the lighthouse goes at 50 feet then that would mean you're under water probably depending how big the ship is right that's not a good thing um and uh South Africa is demonstrating

right now even if you're a lucky or you know foresighted person less older panels and a generator set as the entire rest of the country has no electricity and therefore food and water and other things you're not really safe from those people and you and your food supply isn't safe um so nobody should wish the prevailing currency and therefore everyone else the same things in capital including their ability to produce food and energy to crash like that that's the Calamity that um

unless you want to see all of society burn uh you shouldn't wish for that yeah I think that's very key to remember and so you're really encouraging people to reframe how they think about gold which is which is very interesting but I want to move into now is talking about some of the points that you made on how we shouldn't be thinking about gold and there are I think you make about eight different points we'll try to go through some of them and some of them we may already have touched on we'll link to

the report in the video description so that people can read the full thing if you want but the first one that I wanted to pull out because it's kind of related to current events we have the rate hype from the fed this past week is golden interest rates so typically we hear if rates go up gold should go down and vice versa and I wanted to get your thoughts on that because even looking at what we saw this past week I think that people can maybe see that this isn't really exactly how it works

no and um all you have to do is zoom out you know let's say to the beginning when the price of gold was um completely divorced from the dollar in 1971 and then look at interest rates and look at the price of gold and plots a few together there just isn't really a great correlation between the two shorter term you may get some correlation you get some self affiliate prophecy or if all the Traders think that's what it should be and the interest rate goes up they buy gold a little bit um

I think actually if you really study it what you're going to see is that the price of gold um you know correlates to a spread between marginal time preference and the market rate of interest so when when the interest rate is being pushed below people's time preference then uh you know people are turning into gold but time preference can move all over the place and that's not there's no data series The Fed doesn't publish time preference as a series publishes all the interest rates and money stocks and cpis

and all sorts of you know aggregate data the time preference isn't one of those things but you know you think about it if the banks are offering you interested that you like you're happy with you have very little reason to buy gold and there's an opportunity cost if the banks are offering interest that for whatever reason regard to the craft either because they're zero or in the 1970s it could be 12 in the bank but if you feel that the money is losing its value at 18 percent um you're not happy with 12 so time

preference is going up and therefore the interest rate would have to go up to satisfy you and if it doesn't then um you know people turn to Gold so you'll see a rising gold price during times of rising interest rates and you'll see a rising gold price in terms of in periods of falling interest rates and vice versa so it's one of those things that sort of intuitively seems to make sense but um on deeper you know theoretical grounds that does it and and the data is not beared out all right so it's a little bit trickier

than people think and relatedly so we have the FED hiking rates in order to fight inflation and when it comes to Golden inflation you might hear that gold goes higher when inflation goes higher you might hear that gold is a hedge against inflation and you made some interesting points on on those topics as well which I'm wondering if you can highlight here so a problem with the word inflation is encompasses too and people you know inflation minimizing prices yes I'm aware of the monetary's argument

inflation is that there's a money supply not the center prices which is deemed to be the direct almost linear consequence of the quantity of dollars increasing but if if what we're saying is that when prices go up we call that inflation which is what most people say there are multiple different causes multiple different forces that could push prices up um I know here's an example here in Arizona we've switched I guess about a month ago when the winter blend of gasoline to the summer blend of gasoline

and uh with that comes a big jump in the price has nothing to do with the Vans and everything to do with Regulators Force the petroleum companies to put I don't know what chemical used to be mvte I've been told now that that's no longer environmentally friendly or whatever so there's something else out there alcohol used to be alcohol before that they forced them to put something in the gas which is expensive to add um and which people don't really appreciate don't value often don't even

know it's there so if the price of gas goes up 20 and gas is one of the components of the Consumer Price Index then you say oh look CPI is rising and then you look at gold and saying well gold isn't Rising yeah why would gold respond to a regulator saying that you're forced to put an expensive chemical in the gasoline it wouldn't um and so um sometimes in my more perverse you know movement when people talk about the purchasing power of a currency and that measures you know the basement I said

okay well let's talk about the purchasing car with a dollar but let's be precise do you mean the Midtown Manhattan dollar or do you mean the Yuma Arizona dollar because the human Arizona dollar will buy like 10 times as much as the Midtown Manhattan dollar of course it's the same dollar but costs are very different in Yuma per Don monetary reasons right there's a lot of unemployment there labor is a lot cheaper there's a lot less regulation they want to open a restaurant there's

food inspectors but they're not as aggressive as New York and there aren't all the crazy Environmental Green energy restrictions and whatever uh in humor that there are in uh in New York and so um gold is going to be tracking the monetary predominance the dollar is losing value but not tracking all the all the other random stuff that happens to push consumer prices up that um you know aren't monetary but are lumped into that package deal that we call inflation yeah okay I'm gonna take just a small

pause here because again we're talking about different ways of thinking about things that investors might not be used to you know we're used to looking at the FED interest rates inflation and thinking about how they impact gold in a certain way and so for you if people are trying to adjust how they look at this should they still be considering these factors and just looking at them in a different way what would your advice be for people here I mean I think it's tempting to say that in a broad

sense inflation Consumer Price Index is measuring the falling value with a dollar but be very careful of of sort of two fallacies one that you're lumping multiple different quite different causes and and some of those causes aren't going to have any impact on gold um and then two the problem with any macroeconomic aggregate I remember you know the first economic lecture that I was in I didn't take a conventional course of Economics I have a PhD quote-unquote but it's you know not a

credential degree I can never get a job with that uh you know PHP behind my name but um you know one of the discussions was this idea of aggregate so imagine you have two people and there's two State dinners and you think everything's happy and then zoom out a little bit and you see that one of them is a really fat guy sitting there eating two steaks and one of them is the skinny guy looking through the window hungry and that's the problem with aggregate statistics is there's inherently low resolution and what they

really show and if you're trying to understand gold or a dollar to basement or any of these things by looking at that one low resolution um you know snapshot another analogy I like to use uh for those of you who haven't who have not visited the Grand Canyon here in Arizona everybody should visit it it was definitely one of the wonders of the world is awe inspiring place n every regard imagine if you hike to the bottom and you take out um an older phone so it's kind of low resolution

and you take a picture which does not do it justice by the way it can't and then um I don't know you when you get out of the canyon and you print that picture out and you send it to a fax machine and someone has a fax of a picture taken at the bottom of the Grand Canyon it just doesn't really communicate something's lost in the translation and um you know that's part of what's going on and what I'm trying to say I'm trying to say think of things in a different way because all

the standard tropes you know they're tempting they're convenient there are a lot of reasons that deeper and deeper you drill into the their Keynesian monitor system we have and all the excuses that it manufactures for politicians to cheat which is again a feature not bugged and everything is self-reinforcing everything is pointing back to you know prices would go up going up blame the fed and then politicians and Regulators can get away with murder literally uh because you know people are angry at the fed and

then when you look at the fed well then there's two factions that one is saying yes you have to have inflation because it has to promote the jobs and the other side saying well we've promoted too much jobs and now inflation is running too high and you realize it's this long-running interactable debate over very abstract ideas and both sides are writing equations on the board talking about Frameworks and models and everything becomes hopelessly confused and then you shrug your shoulders and

you're like okay well there's nothing to be done instead of saying wait a minute those danged Regulators Force the gasoline company to add 30 cents a gallon of cost to my gas for For No Good Reason how about let's repeal that stupid regulation and the price of gas to come back to 30 cents to where it was in in March and so it's a lot of excuse making until a lot of sleight of hand you know in a way almost the CPI measure of inflation is almost the greatest sleight of hand ever because it diverts

all the attention away from all the wrongful things going on to just look at this number and think it's The Fad and and the fat is is almost a ideal whitening Rod to draw all that you know right rightful Anger from from what you know what's happened if you live in New England they have been very successful uh at blocking both electric power coming in from Canada and Niagara Falls and um gas coming in Via pipelines that they've blocked and then the Jones act blocks oil and natural gas are being

shipped from Texas to New England and so the cost of heating a house in the winter in New England is you know substantially higher than it should be and then you know to think oh everybody blames the FED for that insurance has nothing to be done about it um you know they've in a way they've not diffused but maybe diluted the outrage about that and just they're defused uh you know spread it or spread it around to the point where there's everybody kind of feels there's nothing to be done

about it and and there are things that we don't unblock the pipelines unblock the electric transmission lines get rid of nimbyism and uh yeah energy to New England which which is what they need yeah you're right though you can get lost in that very quickly so thank you for going into some of the things maybe people can pay attention to when they're looking at these topics the other thing from your report that I wanted to pull out is technical analysis so I can tell you that some of the most

popular guests that we have here talking on our channel are technical analysts and I think that this appeals to people because they always hear about you know you can cut out all of the noise from things that we've been talking about right now you can just look at the charts and they will be your source of truth but you did raise some points to maybe caution people about technical analysis that I'm hoping you could talk about here yeah you know part of it wants to make it witty little clip about you see the

future line and the trend line in my palm and I have some credit cards you know here as well um I I if they're the most popular guess I'm gonna not make myself very popular by by criticizing him but I I don't see how technical analysis can really be predictive especially Trend changes I get that they can be a self-fulfilling prophecy during there's there's a little you know the market gets itself into a certain pattern or a certain mode and everyone's trading that chart and then

you know then it changes I don't see if you look at all the top billionaires in the world and how they made their billions anybody even doing chart analysis uh you know getting to that point um and I and I also think I'll put this out as an economic theory there's some assets technical analysis would work better than others um because the technical analysis you know has the self-fulfilling prophecy implication to it so if you take something like Bitcoin I would have to assume that essentially 100 of all

bitcoiners are watching charts so you take something like gold but the opposite extreme most of the people in the world who have gold just aren't even paying attention to that chart you know in every boardroom at every private bank and every Wealth Management Group in Switzerland there's somebody sitting down and playing an intergenerational Trust to you know to plan for the wealth of their grandkids and great-grandkids gold is involved in every one of those and you know chart as a consideration is

not and then you know they buy the gold they put it in the chest that's locked away sitting in a vault under Geneva a building in Geneva somewhere or is there a you know for decades or Century or something like that and um you know I don't see uh you know charts just really having a lot of tangible reality you know relative to that but I think this is one of those things where it's tempting it's convenient it's a mugs game a lot of people get you know sucked into it and of course there are plenty

of people who make money teaching technical trading uh skills and and give them tools and platforms and all that um where are they as the book says where are the clients yachts or the people that are getting super rich trading the stuff and I I think the people who try to trade I mean any all the Commodities and even shares to some degree they're trying to trade it with the frenzy or back and forth day trading um I I don't think most of them end up getting what they wanted in the end well and speaking of unpopular opinions

I know because we've talked about this in the past you also have what's probably an unpopular opinion on manipulation in the gold market also comes up in the report so I know we could have probably an entire conversation around that but I want to bring that up as well and just get briefly your thoughts on why you don't really follow that narrative if you don't believe in that and there's a couple of things so um probably I wrote a lot of articles I haven't written about it in quite a

while I wrote a lot of Articles historically and I think probably the best out of them uh so I think the leading arguably the leading voice in the manipulation especially on the silver side was Ted Butler and Ted Butler wrote this piece and he said look I'm an old man now I'm retiring from all this I've done my work made my contribution to society and I'm like a professor emeritus saying okay my my body of knowledge is going to be inherited by others and to do with us they will but in that Spirit if anyone

has thoughtful disagreement I encourage them to uh to write so I wrote a piece called thoughtful disagreement with Ted Butler in which I started by saying Whenever two scientific theories uh compete or disagree and to explain something what scientists do is they look for a corner case where the two theories predict opposite outcomes so imagine Einstein predicts that um when you find a super duper magnetic pulsing Quasar thingy that light is going to bend to the left and suppose the rents has a theory that says it's going to

bend to the right all the physics and all of astrophysics is sitting on the edge of their chairs waiting for somebody to build a telescope big enough to find one of these objects and then when they do they're chewing their fingernails down well was it left or right left or right and it's left Einstein has indicated Lowrance is in the Aspen of history and uh you know the conflict is resolved so I said okay you know the conspiracy theory says that those that are short Futures are uh naked short and they're doing it to

manipulate my theory says that they're arbitragers pocketing a few pennies of spread buying spot and selling near future uh and they're hatched um and let's find a corner case where they're going to predict opposite outcomes and let's get the data to show that corner case monetary Metals my company has a subscription to see very high resolution data going back to 1996 so we can see every Futures Contract 137 I think during the period of that study in that paper and how they behaved

and um I'm not going to give away what the uh Corner case was or whatever but we have high resolution data to show that it behaved exactly as my Arbitrage Theory predicted and not at all as the manipulation theory predicts that said my experience in talking with Central Bankers I've met many of them around the world not at the level of yelling or Powell um you know the head of the bank but one to two levels down I've had plenty of conversations of cocktail parties and whatnot and um they don't think about gold I

really have to say that if you guys don't have gold you get to pause and it's like frown it would be I I've never done this but I can imagine going up to a senior engineer at Tesla and asking about well what if you think of putting a carburetor in the Tesla you'd get this pause and be like wait what didn't that go out with bell-bottom jeans and uh um you know in the early 1970s like that's been dead for 50 years right they don't think about it um on our podcast we had Daniel D

Martino booth uh who worked at the FED for I think nine years wrote a book called fed up and she said the same thing she said in all of her years you know no one ever asked for a study on gold it never came up in minutes of her meeting and wasn't asked about it wasn't talked about she said she spoke to uh Joseph Wang who worked as a New York fed same experience no one none of the senior people were asking for any research on gold or anything else they didn't think about it so the idea that they're secretly you

know conspiring in a dark survival to manipulate it it's like why would I care from in their own state of you know terms and given their own objectives why would they care they don't and um you know well as the price goes up it's a threat to them but it isn't going to be you know they were saying this when gold was 200. now it's 2000 10x higher it's no more of a threat now than it was then it could be 20 000. it's not a threat that's not how the system the same thing the euro is not a

threat that you want is not a threat neither is gold not in that sense now gold can be a threat in a different sense but not because this price would be rising but because it's remobilized for finance that's a whole different uh a proposition but in terms of price going up nobody cares Let It Go right and so what do you make then of all these headlines that we've been seeing for the last six months or so about the high levels of Central Bank gold buying we're seeing because that

seems to say that yeah they do want to hold it but I guess you're saying more that they don't care where the price is is that kind of what you're saying well it's the peripheral banks that are buying it um but the allegation of manipulation is you know the fed and and the the main central banks that are managing the system um I remember having a Twitter argument with a very prominent person who I won't name here who said that um China is simultaneously buying gold and shorting

it to push the price down so I jumped in I said okay all right I totally get you know that in theory somebody had a huge amount of money that didn't care about losing too short something to try to push the price down I totally get that China is interested in gold and they want to buy it up but how do you do both at this time and he said well they're selling Futures and buying metal I said okay well that's that's the thing that I studied this whole basis they're charts for free by the way on monetary

dashmetals.com I published that daily uh we subscribe to all the data feeds and publish this if you were shorting Futures and drawing metal then the price of metal would be going up and price of Futures have gone down and there's a spread between the two which is called the goal basis that spread would invert the way the treasury yield curve is inverted and you'd see that and I said I'd be on the rooftops bellowing that let's go backwardation there'd be a massive goal degradation as that

happened it hasn't happened it's not happening and um you know that's absurd um I think a lot of the central banks buy gold because I think the price is going to go up and they want and assets going to go up you know they're traders in that sense not um not acting as managers of anything they're just trying to maximize their value um and I think certainly in the last six months with Russia being locked out of the Swift system they're looking for other conveyance vehicles

right it's still a Dollar World economic calculation what is a barrel of oil worth as a dollar calculation but um you know if you're Russia you can't exactly do business in dollars which is the U.S and its allies whatever you may think I'm not trying to get into offering my opinion on the rightfulness or the wrongfulness of anything regarding Ukraine but just from their perspective they're trying to sell oil and they're locked out of Swift so gold becomes one of the things they

tuned to one of my articles um I gave it a Whimsical sort of title was something like gold to ruble and oil walk into a bar dot dot dot or something I don't know the exact title the article was but I was talking about all this stuff and um I I I gave a thought experiment and I said suppose you know you're in your house and you're just busy and you're letting the front lawn is getting long and kind of weedy and you're getting letters from the town saying we're going to start

giving you fines if you don't mow your grass and just then a kid Rings the front doorbell and he says I'll mow your grass and you said how much do you want he says I want you to pay me one box of eight ice cream sandwiches and uh so you think about it it's okay and that's about eight dollars that's about half an hour's worth of work okay that seems a reasonable wage for an Enterprise I think 14 year old kid with a lawnmower sure I'll do it you know it's the is the Ice Cream

Sandwich really replacing the dollar is is there anything about ice cream sandwiches you look at the kid you realize it's a bit chubby he's asking for a reasonable price and he wants you to do him the service of going to the store and buy the ice cream sandwiches you look at his chubbiness and you say okay I get what's going on here Dad and Mom are saying uh-uh I want you to lose weight and we're not going to let you buy ice cream sandwiches even with money you earned because it's not good for you so

he's he's doing an end run he's kind of cheating on his parents getting you need to do the dirty chore for him um but it's not really changing anything it's still fundamentally a dollar transaction um and uh are there peripheral central banks that are buying gold yes you know there's there's always this implication and I call this the famous buyer's fallacy the Central Bank of Ireland you know announced I bought seven tons of gold one month or whatever it is and there's this implication that the people

running that bag know more than the rest of us about what's coming next and um when you talk to these folks as I have spoken to some of them you find that they're not any different from I mean their academic economists with phds and all this crap so in that sense maybe they know a bit more but they're like any other academic PhD Steve from keynesianism they know an awful lot about very little or nothing and um you know they have their opinions most of which are informed by by Keynes

and Friedman which is not rubbish um and they don't really know what's coming any more than anybody else and the fact that they bought you know which is true it's also true that a hundred thousand people sold that seven tons or whatever it is are the hundred thousand people are wrong and and they're right because they're famous and the hundred thousand people who sold aren't famous maybe sometimes they're right maybe sometimes they're not and um you know all this stuff if you're trying

to trade gold based on all these signals it just it just getting frustrated and you know at the end of the day which is kind of the point of the of the report right and just as we're finishing up here I want to make a point about buying gold and price levels right because we do have gold close to all-time highs right now silver also pretty high and I think that people look at it and they Wonder well I've been told that I shouldn't buy when the price is high and then they get stuck in this trap of when

should I buy what's the right time so what would you say about that I would say if you don't have any golds if you're 100 all in on the dollar and the dollar is making new all-time so I the only way to measure the dollar in my opinion is gold invert the gold price is okay the dollar is 15 milligrams ish which is down from 1500 milligrams in 1913. uh by the way um 1505 milligrams I believe is the number uh you see you're on this thing which is making new lows and you're saying I'm reluctant to jump off because

it's out of low okay uh maybe yeah you know but if you don't have any gold I think everybody should have sound and it's not a price thing it's a you know protect yourself and and you missed yeah you missed the vote if you bought this 20 odd years ago and you could have brought that easily could have brought a 250 an ounce and you didn't and you know here you are you can almost you can't cry over this bill book of the past you can only go forward and um here's where it is now if you don't have any you

should have some if you're trying to buy it as a trade yeah there's definitely wisdom and you don't want to buy one it's making all-time highs um but I think we're in a very funny environment and we'll see how this banking system crisis plays out but uh I've written at least a couple of articles that I gave a talk last summer in Vienna using the German word for the position that the fat has put itself in it's fun this is fun which is a possession of no win and it's used in chess you have to

make a move of course and none of the moves that you make improves your position and in fact they won't make in your position and so you don't want to move but you have to assume you're into it's fun um you know they can let people take real losses which is going to be a breakdown in a lot of things or they can just throw everything they've set out the window and all you know what their quote-unquote credibility out the window and go right back to zero interest rate policy where we were post 2008.

um and neither of those are attractive if you're the FED um what they're going to do I have no idea I can't predict human behavior I can say how the monoface system is working but all the forces are pulling the interest rate down you know and we see an inverted curve that's that's one of the things it's saying right now um but when you look at that and say okay they have no win in there and there's nothing they can do that's going to be a win you want to hold their

credit exclusively 100 be all in on their credit paper when they're in a no-end position or do you want to hold some gold and it's not that I'm saying Gold's gonna go up tomorrow you know maybe it does maybe it doesn't I like to use the example of Cyprus and um most people may remember the Cypress banking system collapsed in was that 2013 I don't remember what year it was it's a while ago now and um you know when the banking system collapsed they they first of all there's

a bank holiday for a few weeks nobody can get their money at all and then after that they said okay well we'll let you get and was like 100 euro a day it was some tiny amount it was all basically locked in the banking system so if you had brought gold the day before that it happened it wasn't that the price of gold was going to go up in Euro terms and as a matter of historical fact it did not the price was sideways to maybe slightly downwards right if you had your money in the form of gold coins

in your pocket you could go to the harbor and nicholasia get on a boat go to Mainland Europe where there are plenty of jobs versus the island of Cyprus where the unemployment rate was 47 and nobody had any money so you could sort of get out of Dodge if you had gold and go somewhere else so gold protects you against all kinds of situations that um seem increasingly likely to be you know coming your way and it's not a price thing and now I do have a short-term you know we have a model that calculates

you know what if you back out the effects of the speculators and the speculative communities leverage Futures Market offers about 20 to 1 leverage FX Market I think you can get 100 to one leverage in some cases so the leverage guys can move the price around at least in the short term and right now they're pulling the price down they're pessimistic so I would say relatively short term 22 to 2300 uh price in Gold if you know nothing changes that eventually the Speculator stop being so pessimistic 28 dollars in silver or

something like that not huge dramatic moves but you know obviously it feels good if you're buying the price goes up but that's not really what I'm trying to say here what I'm trying to say here is if you don't have any gold you're 100 All In on on the fast falling credit that's run by people who have gone mad um and they're cheating and they keep breaking the rules and justifying why it's okay to break the rules the FED is insolvent by conventional accounting

standards and what do they do they come up with new accounting rules for the fed the banking system is screwing so they're coming up with new term bank loan facilities to kind of give them a bailout on the slide and all these little cheats are going on and everybody that owns dollars and especially the only banking system deposits um are the are the rubs that they rely on to just accept it and say thank you sir may I please have another okay I think that's a good place for us to wrap it up there's so much good

information in here for investors and as I mentioned at the beginning we will leave the link to your full report in the video description so that people could check it out if they want to thank you so much for coming on to talk to us about what's going on in the gold market right now I think this is great thanks Charlotte for having me of course and once again I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing News Network and this is Keith weiner with monetary medals [Music]