hey everybody Welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and it was a wild week to say the least because the market is really torn on what is happening right now sure we know that us interest rates will be coming down over the long term and we know that typically has a positive impact on the prices of gold and silver but as investors continue to take a very misleading unemployment report at face value one that shows declining unemployment despite the fact that this analysis here from Zero Hedge clearly shows that productive private sector jobs continue to disappear and they pair that data point with this week's slight rise in US core inflation which shows that one of the fed's key inflation gauges is moving in the wrong direction the question today is not if rates will come down over the long term but it's become a question of how quickly they will come down and this is tangibly impacting the prices of investable assets as they are seemingly being held back as the market asks itself if the Federal Reserve can continue to cut interest rates right now considering the very real threat of resurging inflation and the very fake Narrative of a strong economy and jobs Market which eliminates any excuses the FED would have to cut despite poor inflation results and this has really weighed on both gold and silver prices over the past week especially when you add on on top of that the uncertainty surrounding China's economic stimulus and considering how much sentiment around gold investing is linked to sentiment on China and its economy right now as gold is not only being sucked up by the Chinese Central Bank but also its regular citizens so Chinese retail investors who have come to prefer gold over stocks in real estate due to a struggling Chinese economy it's really incredible that metals are holding up as well as they are right now with silver still leading the way in 2024 performance up 32 1.2% so far this year with gold on its heels up 28.8% in 2024 and the S&P 500 bringing up the rear up just a little more than 23.5% so far this year now although there are a lot of things working against precious metals in the short term that I've just mentioned which may even result by the way in pullbacks that I insist should not scare you but rather inspire you to accumulate more if that is your current strategy in this video I want to take a closer look at one key metric that I think is most important above all metrics I want to show you all what I think it is telling us right now as well as share some insights on what it says about owning gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and Fiat currencies once that's covered I want to share some numbers with you as it relates to the impact of inflation on my 2033 directional price targets for gold and silver because many of you have been asking me what the real value of gold and silver will be in 2033 factoring in inflation and I've prepared those numbers for you in this video now just before we dive in I have a brand new free article for you all at Summit medals.com on the topic of what gold and silver I like to buy and what you need to consider before buying precious medals for investment and savings purposes and for my American viewers you asked for it and I did my best to deliver some of you were asking for discounts on specific silver products like Mr Big licks whose comment you can see here so I shared that feedback with the team at Summit medals and they put these deals together for you all this weekend including that 20 o Silver Kit Kat bar and I will leave the links to these products in the video description below but please remember to visit www.s metals.com for great prices on gold and silver and amazing customer service so jumping into the key metric that I am watching right now it starts with inflation and the currently used definition of inflation as you can see here on the screen is a rise in prices that translates into declining purchasing power so basically a measure of the value of your currency your dollars your Euros Yen and pounds measuring what you can buy with them but the Real historic definition of inflation was and should still be the change in the supply of money and to measure that I like to look at what is called the M2 money supply and the definition of that is right here on the screen just so we're all clear on what that measures exactly now after a period of sideways movement in this key measure of money supply from January 2022 to the end of 2023 you can see here on this chart that it is starting to move up again in fact we hit a fresh all-time high in the latest reading which goes up to August of this year now if we zoom in on this data a bit you can see here that it means we have a current Global M2 money supply that is equivalent to 89.7 trillion us and as this number continues to grow with governments around the world desperately trying to stimulate their stalling economies to me this suggests higher commodity prices are on the way especially for gold and silver because as I've shown you all before the scarcity of precious metals versus fiat currency is becoming more and more significant with each passing decade and today if we compare the supply of money worldwide measured in US Dollars versus the amount of gold and silver that has been mined by humans throughout world history as per numbers from the Royal Mint it means there are nearly $9,000 for every ounce of gold and more than $3,500 in existence for every ounce of silver so despite Some Noise around rate cuts and how quickly they'll come which has resulted in a little turbulence for precious metals Please be aware that the direction of global M2 money supply suggests that short-term headwinds are exactly that short-term blips which are testing the conviction of people just entering the world of precious metals because there is no doubt as things stand today that interest rates as dictated by the Federal Reserve are coming down and that will result in more borrowing around the world as other central banks follow suit with lower rates that borrowing ladies and gentlemen will cause new money to be created new money that will be chasing goods and services driving prices up even more and along with it it will drive the prices these ratios between the am amount of currency in existence versus Metals up as well so when considering your long-term position in metals or if you're only at the point of testing the waters of gold and silver right now please take these numbers into account because the market can only manipulate metals on the basis of flimsy narratives for so long but the fact is they cannot cheat the math behind inflation or its impact on the prices of precious metals Okay so with that covered it's time to move on to this video's viewer question and it comes from a person who calls themselves the prosperous porcupine and in reaction to some of the long-term price targets I've shared here on the channel the porcupine which is a name I love by the way because I'm a little prickly like a porcupine too anyhow porcupine wants to know what inflation may look like in such a scenario and what the real value of that gold and silver will be in today's turn now just to make sure that everybody watching is in the loop here are the figures I shared for gold and silver out to 2033 which I based on the run that both medals had from 2002 to the blowoff top in 2011 and what I was suggesting here by showing these numbers is that if we are indeed gearing up for a similar run as I believe we are and I've demonstrated with other bits of data as well as macro interpretations of different things that are happening around the world it means these prices that are here on the screen are in sight for us not because I pulled them out of the sky but because history dictates a move like this is possible now turning over to this table which I made on a special request some time ago which came from a patreon member named Mark hello Mark if you're watching I'll be quizzing you on this in the patreon Discord later today I had already seen how the official CPI numbers lined up with these past gains and I had an idea a pretty good idea of what the true purchasing power would be in my 2033 scenario and what I did to determine that was I figured out a range that I made by assuming the CPI under represents real inflation by about a factor of two or three meaning real inflation is likely two to three times higher than it is officially reported in the CPI and that is due to manipulation of the scale by things like the substitution effect which as you can see here is When government economists assume you'll eat cat food because they've printed so much money that you can't afford to buy cow tongues anymore so if we assume that we will see a similar rate of inflation as we saw from 2002 to 2011 because that is what these metal price projections are essentially built on it means the value of $1 today at a real inflation level which is twice the official number will be worth 62 Cents by 2033 and at a factor of three times the official CPI that $1 will only be worth 49 cents so less than half of what it is today by the time we reach 2033 and that means as it applies to my 2033 price targets for gold and silver and to answer prosperous porcupine question it means that gold and silver should have real inflation adjusted gains not just move up evenly with inflation bringing the real value in today's dollars in a Range between $588 to $732 per ounce of gold and $11 to $127 per ounce of silver at a ratio of 52 ounces of silver to every 1 ounce of gold so I hope that adequately addressed your question prosperous porcupine and for any of you watching this video out there please remember that you can add your questions to the comment section of this video and I may just select it to appear in the next one with that said I want to thank you all for watching this video and bearing with me as I am a little bit under the weather today I've got a little bit of a stuffy nose as well as a cough but there was nothing that was going to stop me from making this video so please if you enjoyed it remember to leave a like if you found the content of this video valuable please remember to share it with friends and family people who you think this message will help and with that said as I end all of my videos I just want to remember remember uh remind you all I should say to take care of yourselves and take care of each other please take care and see you in the next video goodbye for