hey everyone welcome to bald guy money I am bald guy and despite some turbulence this past week the market remains up Gold Silver and the S&P 500 are still up between 36% and 40% over the last 12 months as you can see on the screen here and the S&P 500 is outperforming its average annual returns since 1957 by a factor of four which means it's performing four times better than it usually does which makes Silver's slight outperformance of the index over that same period of time really remarkable but before you pop the champagne bottles to celebrate this amazing Market you really need to know that this past week gave us a lot of bearish signals and although they don't have me worried I don't really worry about stuff like this anymore these signals have me looking at the market from a slightly different perspective right now because as I've marked here we see some topping patterns in the charts for metals called topping tails and what they show us is that price tried to move higher the market said no that's too high prices came back down and even went slightly negative on the week and from a technical point of view that suggests the likelihood of an incoming pullback over the short term much in the same way the two very solid pullbacks in the S&P 500 indicate the same thing for stocks now for those of you who don't like technical analysis please know that it is not the only thing I am basing this bearish point of view on because I also took note of the fact that Jeff Bezos recently dumped $3 billion worth of Amazon stock and birkshire hathway which is famously run by Warren Buffett is still growing their cash position which now stands at a whopping 325 billion us as they sell more shares of the companies they hold including apple and Bank of America as the headline here States and when I see these stories paired with the fact that the Federal Reserve is poised to continue lowering rates despite the fact that their favorite measure of inflation the core pce inflation gauge is still well over 2% as it stubbornly sits at 2.7% year-over-year it makes me wonder if we're not getting close to the major Market pullback I've been expecting kind of like the one we saw in 2007 which started in the third month after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates when the S&P 500 significantly pulled back as you can see in the chart here and that pullback just to remind you all took medals down with it and I've shown you this chart for gold before as Traders and investors were selling anything that wasn't nailed to the ground to cover their losses in other parts of the market so in this video we are going to investigate that concern of Mine by covering first off how much the prices of gold and silver may pull back from here is the pullback guaranteed and before we get to the viewer question on the brics metals exchange we will take another look at the long-term outlook for gold and silver and what events I am looking for that will have a major impact on their prices now just before we dive in I have a brand new article for you all to read at Summit medals.com on the topic of the gold to Silver ratio what I think of it how I use it and maybe most importantly how I think it shouldn't be used and for my American viewers if you are looking to buy the dip we saw on Thursday and Friday for gold and silver please be sure to check out www. Summit medals.com we've got great prices on top of our five-star service including American Gold Eagles at the prices you see here on the screen and as always I will leave the links to what I think are the best deals in the comment section below along with the link to my latest article on the gold to Silver ratio okay so diving into it I'm going to start with a chart I showed you all on August 11th of this year it's from a video I did while I was on vacation in turkey and the thumbnail is on the screen for those of you who want to go back and watch watch it again and I was looking at the market then and said yes things look very bullish for both gold and silver right now but it is possible that we could see some kind of pullback I would call it a flush out in late October or in November bringing us back just below $30 an ounce for silver with a maximum downside to around $26 an ounce as the image here suggests and this was all based on what we had seen before Silver's explosive 76% move up from 2007 moving into 2008 and I also performed the same analysis on gold but instead of giving you all the bald guy video history lesson I think it suffices to say looking at this through November 20124 lenses that if we indeed see a big flush out in the market after the US presidential elections and I'll come back to that topic in a moment that for silver we're probably looking at a maximum downside to $265 8 cents an ounce which was the August 7th closing low and a Firm support level for silver with a more realistic pullback to the high 29s maybe even stopping at $30 an ounce before taking a bounce from there for gold that maximum downside level is $2,200 per ounce so just a bit higher than where we were when I came on YouTube in March and gave a Buy Signal before we pumped up to 2,400 an ounce with a more realistic downside to $2,500 where there is very strong support in fact I'm not sure we'll even come back that far and I would buy aggressively in the $2,610 to $2,660 per ounce range on gold and that's just for full transparency of what I am doing and what I am planning to do so with those pullback levels covered I want to get to the second question I posed at the beginning of the video and that is is this pullback guaranteed and I said I would come back to the topic of the US election because as things stand right now I'd say nothing is guaranteed and anyone who is telling you they know for sure what is going to happen from here to the end of November either knows something most of us don't or they're setting you up for a disappointment like those who predicted the launch of a goldback bricks currency in October of this year because next week we have both the US presidential election and the next Federal Reserve meeting where they will decide on interest rates and both of these have the potential to be what we call sell the news events where people who piled into a specific investment sell them off with many potentially exiting because they no longer see the perceived risks or benefits that got them into the investment to begin with so in situations like this instead of trying to accurately measure or predict what will happen over the next few weeks or over the next few months I think it's best to zoom out and say what is going to happen over the next year 2 years and Beyond because no matter who wins next week's US presidential election it doesn't change the fact that the winner will have to deal with a labor market that is most likely losing jobs and I would expect revisions to this data to be made sometime after the election reflecting that reality as total job openings in the USA continue to Creator and have now come back all the way to 2018 levels which is not great considering the fact that the population of the country is now 10 million higher than what it was in 2018 and possibly even higher than that because who really knows how many people have entered the country in the last couple years via the southern border now why I say the next Administration will have to deal with these issues is because first off although I strongly prefer one candidate over the other we know that neither of them is a stranger to borrowing and spending money and that's probably my main criticism of the candidate that I prefer ref ER and why I think we will see a comeback of stimulus and money printing is because we know that what the Federal Reserve has done to stimulate economic activity up until now has been totally ineffective as they have lowered the FED funds rate but the 10-year treasury yields have gone up on top of that if we switch over to the 30-year fixed mortgage rate you can see here that it too has also gone up because the market isn't convinced that inflation has been tamed and to get these rates down and to reverse the direction the economy is moving into which is Crash and depression ultimately I expect the Federal Reserve to start buying bonds to get rates down and that is called quantitative easing also known as balance sheet expansion also known as money printing which is the very definition of inflation and this is not only a US problem and I pride myself on being a channel that looks at the international situation as I have lived in three different continents and what I am seeing now coming out of Asia is the exact same solution that has been used in the west countless times now with the Chinese government poised to borrow $1.4 trillion over the next few years to stimulate their economy and just for the sake of comparison that's about three times more that $1.4 trillion is three times more than what the United States paid to bail out Banks during the 2008 financial crisis which shows you that not only are the number of participants in this inflation game growing but the numbers themselves are starting to dwarf past levels and in my assessment that will ultimately send the prices of both gold and silver even higher than they are today because we have not yet seen the best signal that indicates the top of the metals Market triggered yet and that signal is a major crash in the gold to Silver ratio and this is clearly telling us that we are not even close to the top for medals yet and that fact is supported when we look at the table on the right which shows that the S&P 500 when priced in gold is still much higher versus where it was during the last medals blowoff top and for me that means either the stock market has a long way to fall or that gold and silver still have a long way to run to the upside in price and either way considering all these facts I still feel really good even though over the short term I can't tell you whether we're going to see that big pullback or not I still feel really good today having a significant part of my portfolio protected in gold and silver and by the way if this chart is of interest to you it is a part of my gold to Silver ratio article that I posted yesterday on the summit medals website so again the link to that article is in the video description and pin comments below if you want to check it out after this video now with that covered it is time to move on to this video's viewer question and remember you can leave your questions for me in the comments section of every video I do I pick one to be answered each week right here on the channel and you never know your question may be the next one I answer and this week's question comes from the happy coder and the coder wants to know how a bricks Gold Exchange would affect the price of gold on the comx and this is a worthy topic to cover because it's something that I'm hearing a lot about lately and the reason I think I'm hearing so much about this lately is because if poorly informed YouTubers can't talk about the bricks currency launch anymore since it didn't happen despite all of their big promises and expectations to get clicks they're obviously going to move on to the next bricks related topic so how I think this new brics Metals exchange that is supposed to be imminently launched in Russia will impact gold and silver prices on the comx is about as much as the new brics currency impacted the US dollar in the month of October of this year which as you can see in the D dxy chart here that I'm showing on the screen has been on a tear as inflation concerns persist around the world now that doesn't mean I think the US dollar is the best and will be around forever my regular viewers will know that very well and I think this dollar strength that we're seeing right now will reverse and eventually turn into major weak Ness as that money printing I mentioned a moment ago kicks off but what I will say is as a part of my growing lecture series on the bricks is that we need to stop looking at the bricks as an all powerful entity that is working for the good of the world and that they're somehow going to usher in this Renaissance of sound money and this woman here who came on my radar this week her name is Lily Tang Williams and she's running for congress in the United States she is an immigrant to the United States who loves the country and wants to fight to restore the full freedoms and prosperity the West once stood for and I really think we all need to listen carefully to people who fled communist regimes like the one in China like this Lily Tang Williams did and take what they're saying very seriously they are not the good guys we have enough reasons today to know that gold and silver are headed up without having to pin any of those hopes to Russia or to China or any other of the bricks countries that have all wildly different political and economic agendas yes they are sick of the US dollar and the power the United States wields over them with it that's a fact I will not deny but they don't have an alternative and that was on full display this last month in Kazan Russia during the brics summit with some of the members even questioning whether they want to move away from the US dollar so happy coder I don't think about bricks Metals exchange will do much to impact the real trajectory precious metals are on right now with ETF inflows increasing in central banks still buying it shows us that people want Metals specifically gold and with more inflation certainly on the way if they actually pull this off if magically all of a sudden somehow a Metals exchange that the world recognizes appears in Russia it can only act to accelerate that upward movement as well as the downward movement of the US dollar that said I remain skeptical about Russia's ability to pull something like this off in a meaningful way especially considering the bricks track record on launching a commodity-backed currency so with that said that's it for this video everybody please let me know what you thought about what I've said in this video in the comments section below of course put your questions in there as well you never know I may cover it in a future video and please please please remember if you think this message is important and other people need to hear it please like subscribe and share this message with other people who you think need to hear it because I believe that what I'm saying here is very important and that not enough people are getting this message so as I say at the end of all of my videos I'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead please take care of yourselves and take care of each other goodbye e