Hello everyone. Welcome to Bald Guy Money and we made it. Silver has reached $100 an ounce and gold is getting ready to pass $5,000 an ounce. And I wouldn't be surprised if that happens when markets open Monday morning in Asia, which is Sunday night in the United States, as both gold and silver continue to repric themselves in terms of debasing fiat currencies, outperforming the S&P 500, not only over the past year, but gold and silver have gained more in 2026, listen to this, than the S&P 500 has gained over the last 12


months, excluding dividends. Now, for people relying purely on stocks or an American 401k for retirement, what is happening today is starting to look a lot like the period between 2000 in 2012 where not only did metals experience a massive bull run, but they massively outperformed stocks with gold and silver each up roughly 500% over that period of time on an average price basis versus the S&P 500 which was down 3% over that same period and up only 26% when factoring in dividends. And with the S&P


500 currently breaking down versus gold, it has all investors wondering if we are going to see a repeat of what happened between July 2005 and September 2011 as money rotates out of the stock market and into gold and silver with only 0.7 ounces of gold being able to buy the entire S&P 500 index in 2011 suggesting that from a level of 1.4 4 ounces of gold today to buy the S&P 500. Gold could still double to $10,000 an ounce, assuming the S&P 500 remains stable from here, bringing silver at a modest 40 to1


gold to silver ratio up to $250 an ounce. So, in this video, I want to take a look at this likelihood by reviewing key market top indicators to determine how much more time we have left in the gold and silver bull market. I also want to tell you all which prices I think we should all be focusing on for our next levels up for both gold and silver. And once that's covered, I want to talk about what happens once the top for gold and silver is in. Do we get a major 2011 style crash or do we get


something else? Now, just before we dive in, please check out summitmetals.com for great prices on small format gold products which are available at affordable prices with premiums on small fractional Krueger rand versus where they used to be. And I highly recommend these coins. But if you're in the market for silver, I think the generic 10oz silver bars are a good deal. Just remember that new customers get the 5oz silver starter pack on the left at spot. Link is in the video description below as well as a link to


Summit Metals, which is a trusted name in gold and silver. So, jumping in, I had a video recommended to me by a few viewers recently telling me about a guy named Gary Savage who says we are in the final 6 to 12 months of the gold and silver bull market. So out of curiosity, I listened to what he had to say and essentially his argument states that we are nearing the end of a metals bull market which according to him started in 1999 and that metals may still skyrocket from here driven by overenthusiastic


retail investors. But those people are going to end up in a huge loss once metals crash. Even saying that silver is going back to $50 an ounce because stories of major changes in the monetary system are according to Gary Savage being blown out of proportion. And it's a bit more complicated than that. So I've left the link to the video below. That said, Gary Savage, for those of you who watch the video, gets it wrong from my point of view, from the very get-go. Because the bull market for gold and


silver didn't start in 1999. It started in 2002 when real interest rates measured by the one-year US bond interest rate minus official CPI went negative for the first time since 1980. And it wasn't a coincidence because once again, the United States government showed its true colors in that it couldn't manage its money responsibly. And people who had been saving in cash or government bonds were about to become losers once again like they were in the 1970s. And for that reason, a movement


as clear as day that you can see in the chart here on the screen started into gold in 2002, kicking off a 10-year bull market for precious metals, followed by a period of 8 years before gold made another new nominal all-time high and 14 years before silver made a new nominal all-time high, which as far as I'm concerned establishes a clear break between the bull market of the early 2000 00s and the bull market we're experiencing today. A bull market which arguably started in late 2019 when the


Federal Reserve, much like they're doing right now today, stopped shrinking their balance sheet via quantitative tightening. It ended in 2019 and they started printing up money again to inject into the financial system, which again the Federal Reserve started doing in December of last year. So to start and to make this as simple as possible for everybody watching, considering the fact that the 1970s bull market and the bull market of the early 2000s lasted 10 years each, it's reasonable to assume


that this current gold and silver bull market could last until 2028 before we see a significant pause of some kind. That said, measuring the stock market top priced in gold to the market bottom also gives us a great indication of how long this bull market may last. Mainly because we don't see the largest gains for gold and silver until the final months of this bottoming process. And considering the fact that it took 12 years for the entire cycle to play out in both the late 1960s and 1970s and


then the early 2000s, if we measure from the local stock market top when measured in gold, which happened in November 2021, it suggests this current gold and silver bull market could last out to 2033. Meaning we still have three to seven more years left in the gold and silver bull market. as far as I'm concerned. Now, even though I still think the biggest moves for gold and silver are ahead of us and that this bull market likely has 3 to seven more years left in it, what you have to remember is that all bull markets have


pauses. And we saw that in 1975 and 1976, which you can see on the screen here, as well as in 2008 when the stock market crashed, bringing gold and silver down with it in the midst of the bull market of the early 2000s. And we even saw it in 2022 when the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world started raising interest rates. A bull market doesn't have to be a straight shot up, but there are indicators that tell us the top is near. So to make sure you don't sell too early and mistake a


pause as being the top, which I think Gary Savage may end up doing, I just want to share those indicators with you all here so you can understand what I'm tracking and why I'm not calling the top quite yet. Starting with the gold to silver ratio. And I'll start by admitting this sign is telling us that we're moving towards at least a short-term intermediate top in the metals market as the gold to silver ratio, which shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy 1 ounce of gold,


is currently crashing. And this is something we see at the top of every metals bull run, usually marked by a 60% crash in the gold to silver ratio, which from the local high indicates a market top somewhere around 40. And I've spoken about a range between 40 and 50 in past videos. But with silver's recent breakout paired with supply constraints, I am perfectly happy to accept the gold to silver ratio may in fact bottom at previous levels like 32 for example, which is what we saw in 2011. Now,


before you get worried that this may in fact be the end of the gold and silver bull market, what you need to know is that the gold to silver ratio crash is only one of four things that we typically see happen before the metals market top can be completed. with the second thing being a significant move down for the US dollar on the DXY index, also known as the Dixie. And this measures the US dollar strength versus six benchmark currencies. And as you can see in the image here, leading into the 1980 blowoff top for gold and silver,


the DXY declined nearly 30%, reaching the 85 level before the top was in. And in 2011, that draw down was a whopping 40% with the DXY going all the way down to the low 70s. Now, considering the fact that the DXY has only declined 16% versus the 2022 high, it's reasonable to say that this second criteria marking the top of the gold and silver market hasn't been fulfilled yet. And even though my expectation is for the dollar index to go back into the low70s like we saw in 2011, we should expect to see the


index reach a minimum of around 81, copying the 29% pullback we saw leading into the 1980 blowoff top for gold and silver before we can realistically call a top this time around. And considering the fact that the Federal Reserve plans to continue lowering its target interest rate at least two more times in 2026 while it uses quantitative easing, also known as money printing, to buy bonds to force interest rates down, it's logical to assume that the next move down for the US dollar is very near because the


dollar never bottoms and metals never top until after US interest rates reach their low, which is the third criteria of a market top that I touched on in last week's video. Now, what might accelerate that move down for the dollar and eventually force a return to 0% interest rates is the final thing we typically see before a metals market top. And that is a major market event like a recession or a crisis in the bond market. And we may be getting that coming out of Japan right now. And this is a topic I've covered here on the


channel before, but it's a topic that just keeps getting worse as time goes on as rising interest rate yields on Japanese bonds pushes the country dangerously close to a financial crisis. Because not only do higher interest rates make it nearly impossible for Japan to service its debt over the long term, with the debt standing today at more than 200% of the country's annual economic output, meaning higher taxes are hardly a way out of this situation. But it's also putting a lot of banks and


insurance companies that own Japanese bonds under major pressure because they have somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 billion in unrealized losses due to this situation which is very similar to what caused banks like Silicon Valley Bank to fail in 2023. And if a European debt crisis in the wake of the global financial crisis was enough to trigger a massive blowoff top in gold and silver prices in 2010 and 2011, just consider the fact that the Japanese problem we're facing today is nearly twice the size of


the European sovereign debt problem we had back in 2010 and 2011. And you may be wondering what this has to do with the strength of the US dollar and US interest rates. But if things get really bad in Japan, and believe me when I say they are close to getting really bad, remember Japan is the largest foreign owner of US debt. And if they need a lifeline, they will sell a large part of their more than $1.2 2 trillion dollar in US treasuries to prevent themselves from sinking. Which means problems in


the Japanese bond market could easily spread to the US bond market and the US dollar, giving us our crisis and crashing the US dollar at the same time as many investors and central banks are already hedging their exposure to US assets and the US dollar. And it doesn't have to be Japan that does it. But what I'm saying is if we're looking at signs of a long-term market top for gold and silver, we're not likely to see it until something breaks. Because larger moves for gold and silver, like the one we're


seeing happen on the market right now, don't happen without reason. And with the first phase of the gold and silver bull market now behind us and the conservative price targets I shared with you all back in September of last year now already achieved. I am shifting my focus to the aggressive scenario I shared in that video with a new minimum target for gold at $7,500 an ounce and silver at $150 an ounce. both based on my analysis from last week's video, which I've incorporated here, with a high possibility, mind you,


of seeing a small correction before we reach those levels, which for gold may happen as it breaks into the low to mid 5,000s. And for silver, somewhere between 120 and $130 an ounce, which was the upper part of my conservative range and the previous lower part of my aggressive range. And the reason I mention that is to prepare you for that potential volatility and to not mistake a pause for a top because from my point of view, if you give up there, you may end up regretting it just like the people who


sold their silver at $40 and $50 an ounce regret doing that today. So, with that said, it's time to move on to this video's viewer question, and it comes from X Mochi. And remember, I answer one viewer question in every video I do. All you have to do is submit your questions in the comments section below, and your question may appear in my next video. And what XMCI wants to know is how the massive correction and bare market we saw after 2011 for gold and silver applies to what is happening now and


what comes after the current bull market ends. Now, since gold and silver are so similar yet so different, I'm going to tackle each metal individually here. Starting with silver, because what we're facing today is nothing like what we were facing in 1980 or 2011. And this is why. Parking all market manipulation reasons to the side for a moment. After the 1980 and 2011 tops, people who had speculated on silver were faced with a harsh reality. Although they could eat up large amounts of supply in a short


period of time, driving prices up, not enough of the metal was being used to keep the market off balance for very long. And this is why, in my opinion, banks were able to maintain a manipulative control over the price of silver for as long as they were able to do so. Especially in the case of 1980 as the United States government in 1980 started selling down what was 165 million troy ounce strategic silver stockpile which you can see documented here in this article from the US mint. So silver was no longer being used in


coins and the United States was selling off its strategic stockpile. And again, this made it much easier for banks and people on the commodities market to manipulate the price of silver and keep it down. And to be perfectly fair, these conditions remained even after the 2011 top, allowing banks to maintain their manipulative control over the price of silver for a little while longer. Because although demand for silver was already significantly increasing by 2007 with the introduction of the first smart


devices that used silver in them, and here I'm talking about things like the iPhone, there was still just barely enough silver to go around to allow the banks to maintain their control over the price on the market. as silver was in surplus, meaning there was more of it mined than used in seven of the nine years following the 2011 blowoff top for silver. But by 2019, things started to change. Where silver was once abundant, now it's getting used up more in industry. At the same time, mine


production has remained relatively flat, which is one of the main reasons the United States has designated silver as a critical mineral and China has imposed export controls on the metal leaving its country. And I also suspect that for this reason, the United States is already secretly stockpiling the metal. As I've said, they need between 250 and 500 million ounces to secure a 5 to 10year supply. based on their current military consumption of silver. And this is why even though I am sure silver will


overshoot its final price and go higher with an eventual pullback, which is something that always happens during a period of price discovery, the final price of silver still has to be much higher than where it is today considering the rate at which people are purchasing it. And here I'm talking both about from the industrial side as well as from the investment side as well as the supply deficit levels we're seeing persist in the market. Meaning that talk of a crash back to $50 an ounce is


completely unrealistic with a pretty strong price floor for silver currently standing at the $72 per ounce level, which is the pullback level I suggested that everybody buy back in December. And this is a figure we will of course update as this process plays out. But this is not 1980 or 2011 all over again. Now moving on to gold. I think we're going to see a steadier move up with less volatility than we'll see for silver. Because where silver is in large part being pushed up by growing industrial demand, at some point price


begins to matter, especially for manufacturers of cheap consumer electronics, which could begin to impact demand for the metal once it breaks above $200 an ounce. Now, of course, we'll see what happens from there. It may not become an issue until silver is much higher than that. But the reality for gold is much different in that the buyers of gold, namely big investors looking for an alternative to bonds and central banks looking to hedge their US dollar positions are much less sensitive to the


economics and business impact of a higher gold price. And we saw that this past week when the National Bank of Poland announced that even at record gold prices, they will be adding another 150 metric tonses of gold to their reserves, taking them from 550 metric tonses, which is what they have today, up to 700 metric tons of gold in their reserves. And as I've said in recent videos, this behavior is spreading with new central banks starting to buy gold and others that haven't purchased gold


for a long time starting to buy again with even larger inflows still on the way as investors and investment funds slowly move a large chunk of their 6040 portfolios out of bonds and into gold. as concern about the safety of fiat currencies takes center stage for investors around the world. And if you want me to talk about what that reality looks like, a fiat currency collapse using examples from other countries, I can do a bonus video about that on Wednesday after the Fed makes their next rate announcement. Just let me know in


the comments section if you want me to do that video. But the point I'm trying to make here is as more people wake up to the fact that the current financial system cannot be saved, major institutions are making moves out of the US dollar and other fiat currencies like the euro and the yen, etc. And they're moving into gold. And these are moves that I think are irreversible. And unlike Gary Savage, who I mentioned at the start of the video, who thinks that the current move up for gold and silver


is just a craze and that the US dollar system will carry on because a growing economy needs inflation to thrive. And that's according to what Gary says. I think very differently and I think there's no coming back from the move into gold that has been put into motion especially considering the fact that the US social security program and other national pension programs around the world are running out of money and in the United States by 2033 at the latest we should start to see that shortfall in


money for social security recipients get printed to satisfy voters who will not want to accept cuts to their social security benefits, which as far as I'm concerned will be the catalyst that I've mentioned in past videos before for the next major move up for metals heading into 2040. Which is why a 20 to 30% draw down in gold and silver prices like the ones we saw in the fallout of the dotcom bubble popping, which is something I expect still to see once this market takes a pause, do not concern me,


especially if those pullback levels, those prices that the metals prices are going to pull back to when using my next level price targets haven't even been reached yet, which would be around $6,000 an ounce for gold on a pullback. and $140 an ounce for silver on a pullback, which I think would be the worst case scenario once the dust of this current bull market has settled for gold and silver and it finally takes a pause, which by the way should not be confused with a crash and a long bare market because as I've said and said


back in 2024 as well as 2025, this thing is going to hit a new level once we get past 2033 heading into 2040 and we really see the money printers start to move. So, Exmochi, I hope that answers your question with respect to what I see happening once this current stage of the bull market for gold and silver ends. And for all of you out there who faithfully watch these videos each week, if you enjoyed the content, please remember to leave a like below as that helps this content reach more people.


And if you have loved ones in your life, maybe friends or family who you think need to hear this message, please share this video with them as it helps grow my channel and get my message to a wider audience. With that said, I want to encourage everybody to remember to take care of yourselves, but more importantly, please, please, please take care of each other. See you in the next video. Goodbye.