gold news

 Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And back on September 21st, I came on here to warn everyone that we would likely experience price volatility and a pullback around the $50 price level for silver. And I even warned about it again in a follow-up video on October 5th with Jordan from the Daily Gold. And what I was warning people about in those videos was that we could expect as much as a 19% pullback after we hit $50 an ounce. And it was why I had taken 10% off the table on my mining stocks, which I planned on using to

purchase physical precious metals. And unsurprisingly, that message was met with a mixture of disappointment and even push back from some of my regular viewers who insisted that silver would blow through $50 an ounce on its way to hitting much higher levels before the end of the year. And I completely understand why because there was a lot of excitement, even euphoria in the metals community as silver went above even $54 an ounce. And for a moment, it looked like nothing could stop the price from continuing upwards as stories of

shortages, which were and remain very real, popped up all over social media. Now, this video isn't about me saying I told you so, because the truth is we went a lot higher than I had expected us to before seeing the pullback. What this video is about is an updated response to this viewer question I received from DS8607 at the end of September where I was asked about my timeline on the metals pullback and what it is I think will happen in April 2026. So to do that we're going to start from the pullback.

What is causing it? Why it's a good thing? how long it may last and how low we may go before we see gold and silver prices make a reversal and start moving up again. Once that's covered, I want to talk about April 2026, why I think it's so significant, and show you all what the data is telling us about that date, and why historically speaking, it suggests that much higher prices are still on the way for both gold and silver. So, watch to the very end of this video because this is a uniquely

important video. Now, just before we dive in, please check out summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust while supporting what I do here on YouTube. And remember, the easiest and best way to buy metals is on a schedule. And the Summit Metals auto invest option can help you get that done no matter what your budget is. So, please check it out and consider signing up today. So jumping in, what I am seeing right now is very similar to what I saw at the end of last year when I

made this post on X saying that silver's pullback after bouncing off of the key $35 an ounce resistance level could take us back below $29 an ounce before bottoming out. And sure enough, we visited that price area not once, but twice before shooting off to nearly $55 an ounce exactly one year later. And just like that pullback was good for silver's price development and set the stage for the move up to $50 an ounce, these recent pullbacks that we're seeing for both gold and silver are no

different. Because these pullbacks, which are coordinated and orchestrated, essentially stomp out and flush out what I call gold and silver tourist money, which is speculative money that drives prices higher and is not based on any real investment demand, but based on people trying to make a quick profit. And these sell-offs, whether they happen via the sale of paper, gold, and silver that doesn't exist, or by naked shorting, which I described in a recent video, they trigger speculative stop

losses. And those are sell orders that are executed at specific price levels to protect speculators from losing their money in the paper market. And as you can see here, when you create enough selling pressure in the market, what happens is these stop-loss sales get triggered, adding more selling pressure, pushing price down enough to trigger the next set of stop-loss sales, and then so on, which creates what is called a cascade of selling in the market. And once that speculative money is cleared

out, real investors, including the institutions that create the environment for these major price slams and these stop-loss cascades, they essentially step in and they start buying the dip. And switching over to a chart for gold, because this is a great example that shows us exactly how this has worked in the past. If we look back to October and November of last year when the price of gold pulled back 9% over two weeks and people were once again calling the top of the gold and silver market, what we

saw was, and I don't think it's going to be any different this time around is that big money, including central banks, stepped in to buy that dip in gold price. And as this data from the World Gold Council on the screen shows, central banks actually made their largest gold purchases of 2024 in October and November during that price pullback after the speculative money had been flushed out of the market. So now that we understand what is happening and why this is good for the bullish development of gold and silver prices,

we have to cover how long this is likely to last and how low we may expect to go before turning things around. And to start, I'll say that I expect more consolidation, which is sideways price movement and volatility heading into the end of the year as we reach bottoming out levels likely in November with the possibility of revisiting those low levels again in early 2026 as some people realize their big 2025 gains in both metals and mining stocks in early 2026. So the capital gains on those profits get pushed to 2027. So that's

just a heads up on what to expect in the worst case scenario. That said, I expect to see a solid turnaround happen no later than February of next year. So 4 months from now, although I admit it can start earlier than that. So use this pullback as a window of opportunity to prepare yourselves instead of waiting for a magic number to hit before you buy. Because although I think in the case of gold, we could come back as low as $3,750 an ounce, which is at the 50-day moving average, we may not see it come back

that far, and we may see a roughly 9% pullback off the highs like we saw last year, taking us to just below $4,000 an ounce before the turnaround starts. Now, in the case of silver, where I previously said to expect a 19% pullback from around $50 an ounce, I have to factor in the higher price level that we achieved in the recent run up. Meaning, we may only pull back as far as $44 an ounce with an outside chance of retesting $40 an ounce, which is at the current 100day moving average. And that is realistically what to expect. But

again, I want to warn you that pullbacks to those levels may be extremely fast and difficult to buy. In fact, they may not even be buyable at all, just like the pullback we saw on silver below $30 an ounce in April of this year. So, stay on your purchasing schedules because new highs are coming and I am going to show you exactly why. But just before we get to the topic of new highs and why April 2026 is such an important date for gold and silver, please remember to visit channel partner landofland.com to find

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forget to use code bald guy to get $300 off of your purchase of land today. Okay, so moving on to what I think is the most important part of this video. Why did I tell DS8607 about a month ago that I expect silver to make its move to $60 an ounce in April or May of next year? And why do I think it may also coincide with gold breaking above $4,500 an ounce. So to start, the US CPI, which is the consumer price index that measures increases in the prices of good measured in US dollars, hit 3% this week. And as Wall

Street celebrated it, because it came in below the estimated 3.1%, I was telling people in my Discord group that this is a big deal for gold and silver. And the reason is because this result, which the market interprets as good, has reinforced expectations for more rate cuts in 2025 and early 2026, which according to the CME Fed Watch tool now gives us a 74% chance of seeing US interest rates at 3.5% or lower by March of next year. And for those of you who know where I'm going with this, alarm bells should already be

ringing in your heads because that means that as of the March 18th, 2026 Federal Reserve meeting, we could expect to see real official interest rates for cash savers at or below 0% because the interest rate offered to cash savers minus the official CPI inflation rate, which we know is understated anyhow, will give us a real rate of 0% or lower. And that means anyone saving in cash or holding certificates of deposit or buying US Treasury bonds immediately lock in a loss. And smart money, big money, institutional money, including

central banks, are not going to tolerate that. Now, as things stand today, the one-year real interest rate is at a pathetic 0.7%. And again, if you factor in real price increases on top of what the CPI says, it's probably negative already. But the majority of the market operates on official data. And that data says it's still positive. But once that number goes negative, like we saw happen six times between 1970 and 1980, and then another nine times after a long break starting in 2022. Gold and silver prices are going to make

massive moves up just like we saw following the late 1973 move to negative real interest rates when gold price shot up 54% in the first 3 months of 1984. We saw it again in late 1979 when both gold and silver made blowoff top highs. And it's no coincidence that we saw it ignite a new metals bull market in the early 2000s when real interest rates officially went negative again after a 22year break. And the mechanism that causes this is simple. If the global financial system is based on the US

dollar, and we know that is still the case, and you are guaranteed a loss by saving in that currency in US dollars, then the only logical thing to do is to move to an alternative that will protect you against that. And today, as has been true for more than 5,000 years, real money, so gold and silver, is the place that people move to to get that protection. And it's why gold and silver prices every single time since 1971 when the United States went off of the gold standard have gone up every single time.

Either in the quarter interest rates went negative or in the following quarter. And the average increases for both gold and silver for those periods immediately following a return to negative interest rates are shown here on the screen now. And what this data tells us is that if we are to consolidate around current prices, which is what I expect us to do with a few pullbacks along the way, we should hit new highs at the latest. And I mean at the latest, it could happen earlier, but at the latest in April or May of 2026,

as gold should be breaking above $4,500 an ounce by that time. And silver should already be starting its move up to $60 an ounce. And it's why I am watching what the Federal Reserve will do this next Wednesday very carefully. And if you want me to do a midweek bonus video updating you all on this topic, factoring in what the Federal Reserve has done and what the Federal Reserve is saying, please leave a like and let me know in the comments section that you want an extra video on that topic and I

will see what I can do about getting an update out about that topic on either Wednesday or early Thursday at the latest. So, with that said, I want to thank DS8607 for the fantastic question that led to this follow-up video. I also want to remind everybody watching that if you have a question you want to see answered here on the channel, don't be shy. Leave it in the comments section below. I select one question to appear in every video I do. And with that said, I'm wishing you all a fantastic week ahead.

Maybe I'll see you on Wednesday. Let me know again in the comments if you want to see that bonus video. But until the next time we see each other, everyone, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you in the next video.