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 [Music] I'm Charlotte McLoud with investing news.com and here today with me is Lio CEO of independent Speculator decom thank you so much for being here good to have you always happy to be with you show very happy to be with you and we've made it through day one of pdac and I thought it it we've had enough time to ask you how it's feeling in terms of sentiment I know at VC where we were just over a month ago you had your standing room only presentation how is it feeling here I wasn't standing room

only this time but it was the same for Tavi Coston before me and and the fellow after me I forgot who it was but so that's not the measure I and actually the little room where they have us peasant scum newsletter writers uh is this like shameful little corner over there we don't get to sit at the grown-ups table so I don't think that's an accurate measure Walking the Floor I would say that it's it's mixed it's busy it's good to see people here I hear you know deal deals being made I Are Pitch

is being made so you know the stuff of funding and advancing exploration and development is happening but I can't say that it's a particularly happy bus I'm I'm not you know with with gold near not just all-time highs um Nally but near 3,000 bucks you'd think like you know with gold being such an important part of the Canadian exploration scene and and aell weather for all hard rock exploration anyway um you'd think there'd be more excitement you know wow 3,000 bucks whoa um you had

a hockey stick on the gold market last year and other metals were up silver was up copper was up I I would think there would be more excitement here and and there's not um where do I go with that I'm not sure but our mutual friend Rick rule likes to say I love hate hate makes me money right so if there's um the Silver Lining here would be that an an an environment like this can be one ripe with opportunities yeah it it does feel a little bit subdued and I do think that the place where they have you all

presenting is very hidden away all wred on the feedback I had to have help to find it you know I'm not that old but I'm glad I had help it's hard to it's hard to find I only knew where it was cuz I found it last year but okay so good to get that take on the temperature in the room at pdac the last time we spoke I mentioned it was at VC and it was literally on the eve of Trump's inauguration and so we didn't really know quite what was going to happen like and those of us who thought we did were

wrong that is I think that's very safe to say so you told us really the Trump trade was going to be volatility and I think that has pretty much panned out but I wanted to ask uh were you able to take advantage of that volatility um yes and no one of the specific ideas for making volatility or friend that you know famous Doug Casey ISM was to sell puts on something that you'd want to own anyway and um actually put out a put strategy to my clients of the independent Speculator and some of them

implemented it and got filled because the company in question went there and licky split um but I always give my clients Head Start so it was so quick that by the time I got there um you know the the opportunity was gone so I didn't personally profit from that one but I'm happy that my readers did and that obviously benefits me anyway so I think the takeaway is just that you know that's still obviously you know the force to bet on and it's the force to bet on is not high tariffs it's it's not

high this that or the other it's the volatility and we we don't know these tariffs here here today gone tomorrow and maybe Justin and and and Donald get together and have a have a a bro session there and come out with some new deal and and the chiff are going right is so you can't bet on that what you can bet is on Sudden movements and you know selling puts not everybody likes to do strategies but my simplified version of this is make yourself a volatility wish list dear audience a volatility wish

list you don't have to have options or anything fancy just know that this is a company I'd like to own no matter what you know it fits my long-term thesis it's something that I've always wanted in my portfolio or maybe they just made a fantastic new discovery and I missed it right something I want and then build some cash and be ready and maybe that one won't work maybe this one will if you've got your list and your cash ready then volatility can be your friend yeah I I think that makes a lot

of sense and on the note of the tariffs I'm almost avoiding asking about them because there's been so much back and forth and well if it's all the art of the deal you know it it almost doesn't matter it it doesn't matter what we might say about this percent of that tariff steel or aluminum or whatever if it all is subject to sudden complete reversal there there's not a lot meaningful to say other than what we've said about volatility I will I will ask on the note of terrorist I'll I'll add one question

actually have a couple but I'll ask this one for sure we've heard or I have heard that this movement of gold from London to New York is the result of trying to front run this possible tariff situation and there's other ideas out there too and I wanted to ask you because you usually give us you know the no hype idea of what's going on yeah right so the no hype take here here comes the rain on the parade because is yes this is obviously happening and these are publicly reported figures uh astounding

figures and by the way it's not just gold the amount of copper headed from London to New York or well to the US at any rate is also the there was an article about just um Friday but this is like a record amount it's queued up ready to go on the plane or whatever and copper is much bulkier than gold so it's really interesting because on on one part you know gold is such a concentrated amount of value you can put I know you're a billion dollars in 1747 I don't know more than that probably you

can put a million dollars of gold in one briefcase at current prices maybe not even a very large briefcase so you can transfer a lot of gold relatively easily uh you know copper you know that's a that's a big tonage thing you really wouldn't do that unless you were seriously concerned that you might need it and not be able to get it or have to pay more for it later so I do think this is a meaningful change but it's not one here comes the rain it's not one that by itself makes the price

go up or down or whatever I mean moving from one repository to another doesn't change the market it doesn't change it doesn't add one more ounce or pound to supply doesn't subtract it now if there is a you know a tariff that makes you know a premium a US premium then then this Advanced movement will have been wise uh suppose there's no tariff or you know the deal makes it go away you know I'm not worried about this trashing the price of gold I I don't think gold went up because of this

movement is what I'm saying I went up for other reasons therefore I'm not worried about if the deal gets you know makes tariffs go away and actually and the Tariff threat goes away from gold or copper and it just goes back to the way it was I don't think that changes the price at all so if you're expecting this thing to make you know gold go to the Moon that that's my rain on the prey probably not going to happen on the bright side you know if it goes into reverse I don't see it as a threat

either okay so we're pretty pretty neutral on that and I'll will come back to Copper I've got uh other questions about copper to ask you but sticking with gold so for those who might not be familiar with your thoughts so this is this is not the driver of gold what are the main drivers of gold that you're current watching us closely well the Central Bank buying is still there in in spad and it's you know it's welcome to see the Chinese come back and I think this is actually something really

important to focus on because I mean is there anything on the Trump agenda that's going to make China say oh you know what you know we don't really need gold so much anymore we're okay with dollars we want more dollars no the and and the global South you know they're not going to change their mind and heck you know with with this whole zilinsky blow up Friday and Europe saying oh we're on our own you know even our closest allies or the US's closest allies formerly and here we are in

Canada you know the Canadians going to say or the Europeans going to say oh well we're going to trust our financial lifeblood to flow through New York and Washington and leave that up to the United States uh no I I I think that the world has just gone through a oneway door this is a paradigm shift and there's certainly nothing this administra ation is likely to do four years they've got um that's going to reverse that and even if the next Administration is an anti-trump completely the opposite issues an

executive order to nullify every executive order Trump issues even if that happens I don't think the Chinese say oh well that's okay then oh it's fine we're best friends now I I just don't see that and or the Europeans either you know they've just been smacked a wake up called Big Time and even if the next Administration which is still you know that's four years from now that's a long time for an investor but say that even happens they're not even if they say okay we like this

Administration better we're willing to work with them more they're not going to go back to the way things were before and say oh we'll just rely on the US for everything that's fine that that's not going to happen so I think particularly for gold and and sorry silver Bulls I I like silver too I'm bullish on Silver but Silver's not part of bosel 3 right and the central banks are not hoarding silver they're hoarding gold so this is a gold specific story I think it's a

paradigm shift it's a one-way door I doesn't go back and it's highly supportive so what's driving I think that's a big part of it I also think and we have talked about this before another Rick rism about the global mean allocation to Gold historically over the decades is 2% it's basically been five 5% so if it reverts to mean that implies a quadrupling of investment demand for gold this isn't mean this is a rck rism and the data is out there um the last time we talked I said I think we're

starting to see signs of this happening I think we're seeing more and more evidence of that now I we're seeing people on on mainstream Finance saying oh and we're hedging a little bit with gold or or people you know people on Yahoo finance or Bloomberg or you know mainstream Outlaw you know what are you doing about this this tariff right or this trade war or whatever we're doing this that and the other we really like em or we really don't like em this that and the other oh and we're hedging with

a bit of gold like I'm hearing that more and more um and I'm i i i i it's the sort of thing that's hard to get hard data on but for what it's worth you know my wolf whiskers are twitching on this I think this is highly material and you know I don't know that we're going to quadruple the investment demand for gold but even if it just goes back to 1% you know half the historical me that would double the investment demand for gold and in a world like this where you've got you know Trump and

Vance yelling at zilinsky and a collapse of a peace deal and you know people worried about Taiwan and all this stuff I mean that's the kind of world where people want a safe haven so I'm very bullish it's hard for me to be saying oh yeah it's got to go way up from here when it's we're already looking at you know nominally at least near record levels and never mind nominal you can't say this is a low price for gold right you know so we had a big hockey stick in 24 it's hard for me to say oh we're GNA

have another hockey stick in 25 this might call on copper um but I don't get me wrong I'm very bullish on gold I you know I I could see a correction but with with these new drivers these changes the Paradigm shifts that we're seeing in the market I don't see a lot of downside you know a correction I think we may get a technical correction I'd be very surprised if if gold got anywhere near 2000 again I 2500 I could see um below that would be more impressive but I'd be very surprised if

it would ever got back near to 2000 again just in the world we're in today with the with the committed buyers that we've got today that seems very unlikely to me okay I think that's a that's a good overview of what we have going on with gold and talking about we know that central banks are really underpinning demand for gold I wanted to also ask you about this whole Fort Knox gold audit situation and I know it's maybe kind of silly but I I'm so confused because I'm looking at it thinking all right do

Trump and Elon Musk Caro gold is this a good sign what does this really mean is that just you know more yeah yeah yeah yeah well if nothing else like we just saw this Friday oh that'll make for good television as Trump's remark right so if nothing else it make for good television you imagine Trump and Elon going in there Elon with M's chainsaw over his shoulder you know video camera following him in going in and open up the Vault if the Gold's there it's still great television if the gold isn't there it's

even better television what you know what's going on all the kinds of excitement um I don't think this is silly I think it's perfectly reasonable for the people whose goal this is to say show me the money where's the beef right um and the fact that it hasn't really been audited for so long and the audits that were done were not really independent s fying you know you couldn't really see it as I recall reading the last audit that was done they went in and they showed them one of

the vaults you know and they could and then they said and the rest are just like this so you it wasn't a full audit um now bessent just said that it is audited every year last time it was last September October or something and um and he didn't say this but the when this came up in 2011 with Rand Paul uh apmg a private company was involved in these internal audits but that's just it it's an inter it's the government reporting on itself and the whole point of the trust here and the and the lack

of trust because the government has refused to be transparent about this in the past I think it's reasonable for the people to say we want full transparency we want to know and and it's not wrong for them to be suspicious about what's really there but the government says no you can't know we're not going to tell you like if you've got nothing to hide if the gold is there why would you do that so I think that's reasonable now that doesn't mean that I think for Knox

is empty um you know is everything there that's supposed to be there an interesting question uh you know a lot of people are saying okay well maybe it's there but maybe it's hypotheca you know maybe that's there's leans against it or something you're not going to find that out in an audit of the building right going and looking isn't going to tell you that and you know how does the government hide these things I don't think kp& or anybody's going to be able

to tell is that but it would be reassuring to be able to go in and not just look at one Vault but look at all of them you know somebody independent like if you love Elon or hate Elon I think if Elon goes in there and he walks in everyone and there's a camera following him and it's on live streamed on X I think most people would believe okay the gold is probably there right you know Elon can pick one up and bite it it's a lot of yeah the visual with the the chain song that somebody's going

to use Ai and and make that but I guess the takeaways though I I don't think it's silly at all I think this is worth doing the so whats are if the gold is there nothing bad happens I mean it's supposed to be there so nothing changes if there's any irregularities or problems with the gold there there's there is no scenario in which that isn't good for gold because the world is assuming that all this gold is there so if it's anything other than there then that changes balance of supply and

demand um so this is a win-win for gold uh the the bigger question is the revaluation next on the L next on the list okay your thoughts there can this can this happen is this realistic well I just I just spent nine hours on the beach in Uruguay talking with Doug Casey and one of the things he told me is that he really thinks this is going to happen he thinks Elon uh and others around Trump see this as a way to fix the US's this balance sheet if if the gold is on the books if it's there and it's on the books at 42

bucks and you mark it to mark it you know that's almost 100x the value that would make a material difference even with trillion dollar deficits if you marked it to Market that would that would make an appreciable difference in the US balance sheet and in a way though I I see it as a trick like don't get me wrong I think it should be Mark to Market you know gold is not $42 an ounce um but you know whatever the government values it at if it's there we know it's there and in the back stop of all these tons of gold at

Fort Knox that's the reality and the paperwork around it is not important so changing the paperwork seems like a bit of a shell game to me it really actually reminds me of Paul Krugman with his trillion dollar platinum coin oh yeah we'll pay off the debt by printing a trillion well the problem is that a platinum coin no matter you know it's not worth a trillion dollars so it's still Fiat calling a an ounce of platinum trillion dollars is materially no different calling a piece of paper a

trillion dollars so uh the thing with Doug is he doesn't just think they'll market to market he thinks that they'll mark it way above Market he he thinks they'll go to like 25 or $30,000 an ounce to really fix the balance sheet I think that would be Krugman esque and I'm not saying Doug's wrong I could actually see the powers that be saying hey why not you know um the problem with that though is that if the United States government says our official reserves are gold are

worth $25,000 an ounce what does that tell the world about the dollar it's not just 25,000 uh kumquats or beanie babies or I don't know what it's $25,000 an ounce that's that's effectively devaluing the dollar and um you know maybe back in Roosevelt's day they could get away with that with you know they actually still had the gold and they still could honor it but in today's world I think that would upset a lot of Apple carts and Trump still says he wants a strong dollar so I'm skeptical that this will

happen but if nothing it's it's sort of like the the audit if nothing happens it doesn't hurt gold that's where we are now status quo if anything happens on this the there's no way that's not bullish for gold starting yeah it's sounding pretty good for gold in in basically all scenarios so thank you for giving your thoughts on those ones those are some tricky ones I'm sure we'll come back to those in future conversations if we take a look um maybe at things well not that

these aren't tangible but things that are a little bit more immediate I know we're due for for the next monthly jobs report later this week and I get the Impressions being closely watched what are what are you looking for there yeah there's a question as to whether the Doge firings will show up in that or not uh an interesting thing is though that the last uh jobless claims the weekly jobless claims number just Spike big time went back up to almost quarter of a million um and that those are State

claims so that does not include federal employees laid off by Doge so that Spike did not come from Doge now I'm not sure where the cut off is I've I've heard some of the Talking Heads um on financial media and I think it's like on the edge like we might start to see some impact from this in this one but really the big one will be in in April so I'm not expecting huge fireworks from this one now if it does happen if if the unemployment rate ticks up more than anybody's expecting or if

you know the job creation is much lower than people are expecting you know net net from whatever losses uh that will be a wakeup call because it's it's you can't you can't dismiss it oh that's just Doge and by the way you can say oh that's just Doge it's not the real economy well still those people are still fired right those jobs are still gone that still matters even if it's just do so that's not an excuse and if if you hear the people on blueberg or Yahoo finance dismiss this is not

important because it's just Elon don't believe it a lost job is a lost job we also have and I have to remember not to forget the FED amid everything else that's going on but we've got that meeting coming up in later this month really any any thoughts on what we should expect there is it going to be just flat kind of par for the course I think so I I think that they know they may not say it they you know they're still trying to hold on to the narrative that all this increases inflation that

we've seen it's just a bump on a road down to 2% you know we are sustainably on our way to 2% and you know this last week's pce number gives them a little bit of cover I mean not really the monthly numbers one was flat and the other one went up the core number the supposedly more important core pce went up and and this is important to keep in mind you know it went up on the month base effects had it so that the yearly stats were down which was expected so everybody breathe a sigh of relief well

the big sigh of relief was because you know until then they kept going up and I think the sigh of relief is actually misplaced because on a monthly basis it still went up and the core number went up that that matters and the Fred knows this now now they might say oh well you know they might stick with the bump on the road and narrative because anything else gets them in trouble and the and the PC report gives them some cover oh yeah that was all it's just a bump it's on its way down I don't think it's a bump and I think the

next inflation reports we see will probably show that it's continuing upwards and at that point things will get interesting so I guess what I'm saying to your specific question is I think this next fed meeting is probably going to be a nothing Burger but after that if I'm right about the inflation rebounding then we might see a different thing and if at the same time the Doge cuts and or just other shock and awe emanating from Washington results in more layoffs uh in the private sector

you could see continued Rising inflation weakening in the labor market smacks of stagflation uh which Po's brilliant plan for dealing with stagflation was not to have it so so if it gets handed to him on a platter we might actually see some real fireworks picking up because the expectations now the market expectations are nothing now probably nothing all year maybe one more rate cut in October or something later in the year um but if things go the way I think they're likely to go in the quarter

ahead we're going to see people talking about rate hikes again and that will upset the apple cart yeah yeah okay so a little bit par for the course for now and then then we'll see so that'll be something to check in on I want to go back around to Copper as well because this is your top pick for the year we talked a little bit about how the tariffs are creating this this movement of copper as well and we've also this is coming I guess as Trump has launched this investigation into whether we should do this so any

further thoughts on what's happening there and whether I know we've talked about tariffs and but so you know one answer is just like the others art of the deal who knows that's the short version the longer version would be you know keep in mind that you know Trump with his Sharpie pen big fat executive order signature there on camera the executive order was not a tariff it was an investigation and long-suffering uranium bulls will remember that last time Trump had a Commodities investigation it went out for like two

years and then the recommendation didn't really help the miners eventually there was the establishment of the uranium stockpile which by the way Biden implemented so I I just I don't expect much to come from this executive order if anything does it could take a long time now he's saying oh it's going to be quick we're going to have something here maybe it'll include tariffs but tariffs on who they've already got tariffs on our fellow Canadians up here you know who are they going to tariff Chile and

Peru like you know Chile and Peru are are not flooding the United States with spent and all they've got no like I don't understand who Trump is would be trying to brow beat with with copper tariffs so and it would be highly destructive I mean it okay let's say that he actually wants to support domestic copper production and smelting even if that happens that takes five years 10 years I mean this it's not the flip of a switch there's there's one deposit that could be helped right away

it could be there could be a resolution let's say to this problem and that's one that's just one and the problem there isn't competition from Peru or Chile it the tariffs aren't going to help that project it's regulation it's the courts we you know this stupid thing has been imp permitting for 30 years and and tariffs aren going to help that so I'm hopeful that reason will prevail and somebody around Trump will say there's this is going to raise costs for everybody and it won't have any

material benefit for the United States in less than five or 10 years after which you're no longer an officer right I'm hoping somebody will tell them that and nothing will happen but let's say he puts a tariff on copper Imports that will make copper more EXP expensive in the United States and if anything make it cheaper outside of the United States because those pounds that don't go to the United States are forced to go somewhere else and those people say oh well we're going to drop our bid so

globally and copper is a globally fungible commodity it's uh its price is not determined by the United States alone you know China consumes a lot more of it than the US does so if the US says no we don't want these pounds and they go to China we could actually see lower copper prices this is just yet another one of these things for anybody whipping out their spreadsheet that's plugging in you know XYZ copper tariff I I think it's very premature may not happen at all even if it does it might have the

opposite effect of what currently people seem to expect because copper prices did pop on that news I think it was you know maybe people are rushing to buy the rumors sell the news but if they did I think it was very wrong-headed and they're they're likely to regret it really interesting and I'm glad you mentioned that section 232 your radium connection because I saw that was I didn't remind her she remembered that number by herself you did your I'm I'm impressed yeah and um I I saw it come up

and I like oh no this again so anyways anyways that's that's exactly right oh no this again that's my yeah that's my joke on that so copper just a little bit more on copper it's the the top pick of the year for you but I remember you know you weren't necessarily rushing into Coffer so any updates surrounding your copper time still where I'm at you know and you could oh well I mean copper went from I think around four bucks when we talked about it to 470 so people say hey

Li you right about copper no I honestly I wasn't you know the reasons why I was bullish on copper or I mean it's not the only one it's not that I don't like gold as we've just been discussing or silver or uranium it's just that at the time of the four of those uh uran I'm sorry copper was the the one that was relatively on sale the one that had the more potential hockey stick over the course of his year so that was the the basis it wasn't negative on the others um since then uranium is sold off in a

big way uranium is down more than 40% from its peak a little bit over a year ago uh so actually I I see a lot more Alpha in uranium than when we last spoke which doesn't take anything away from copper but just putting it out there um but to answer the question about copper you know that was based on it was relatively less expensive compared to the others the inflationary argument in in Trump agenda is still inflationary Doge notwithstanding so that's bullish for coppers and and and I saw more upside

potential in Copper that's still there but that's yet to be worked out so the answer to the question is no I haven't bought any more copper stocks yet I am building cash I have my volatility shopping list that I'm you know got my copper my favorite copper picks on there that I want to buy um I'll consider put options but I'm I'm I'm waiting cuz let's say let's say this uh new copper study group of Trumps comes back faster than I expect in a couple weeks and make some kind of recommendation

that really disappoints people like don't do anything it would be stupid to put a tff on copper let's just imagine they say it uh you know all the people who thought you know some new Tariff was going to make copper go to the much higher that goes into reverse so between that and just uh the potential for uh economic disruptions from all the changes and everything going on I think there is a a significant chance at lower copper prices before I'm right before the reasons why I think copper will go

higher this year so My call is sort of like byye end or H2 2025 for copper so sorry this isn't exciting I know you want a stock pick you know buy this one right now or whatever but really what I'm doing with my own money right now is I'm building up cash like Santa I've got my list and I'm checking it twice and um I am I do expect to have an opportunity to buy some of these things that I'm keen on now at lower prices and if not I'm just going to buy them anyway you know if I don't get lower prices I can

buy them anyway because I think we go into a multi-year copper bowl and if I miss the bottom so what this still plenty of time to make money on okay I would of course know better than to ask for a stock pick but I think as we're finishing up I was going to ask you to some of your shopping list which you have done essentially so any final thoughts Before I Let You Go that you would see people we didn't quite mention silver too much other than in passing so I mean there's a very simple formula

here if you're bullish on gold which I am if you're bullish on copper which I am how could you not be bullish on Silver right it's got its monetary metal side and its industrial metal side uh it's it's a byproduct of copper mines um and it takes time for those mins to ramp up into production so actually I'm I'm quite bullish on Silver too the one caveat here and you know Bulls get mad at me when I say anything other than it's going to the moon but I'm I'm

trying to do my best to be helpful and I have to say on the uranium thesis if Trump hadn't talked about denuclearization I would be pounding the table on uranium right now I might even say okay like copper but forget it right now my top priority is buy more uranium the the spot price is way over sold the stocks are starting to finally feel it like before my problem was that uranium itself had corrected the spot Market not the longterm contract splot Market had corrected but the but the stocks were still holding up you know

people could people could see the uranium thesis was so strong that even cheaper uranium prices wasn't really putting the uranium stocks on sale that much um that is starting to crumble now so there are opportunities now I I think absent of other thing would be a buying opportunity now this other thing is a question mark and I want to be very clear about this I am not saying that a a new denuclearization treaty between the United States and Russia is going to flood the world with cheap uranium right

away or at all I'm very skeptical this will even happen even if it does happen I I think it would be di Minimus I don't believe for a moment that Russia that Putin would seriously you know cut back his Arsenal you know maybe if some old weapons left over from the 60s just for show but I I I don't take I don't take that as a serious St at all and China they're still building out their nuclear you know they're not going to so I don't see this as a serious threat but imagine the

headlines imagine you know Trump and Putin have a big signing ceremony we're going to get rid of all these scary nuclear weapons and so on of course that would impact the market and of course that would impact our share prices and if you say oh well that's not going to happen for a long time well you know look at what Trump has done in the first four weeks in office so who knows and you know maybe maybe Putin wants a PR thing maybe he wants to be able to come to the world and say look at me I'm not so bad I signed this

denuclearization treaty with Trump right so I the takeaway here is I'm not worried about uranium the the reality at all but I see that there's a chance that publicity that political risk could create yet another buying op which you know you nobody want another buying opportunity at this point we just want our stocks to go up but Mr Market doesn't care what we want and all I'm saying is you know I think this is something that would be dangerous to dismiss or ignore entirely you know

again it's just the scare not the reality but the scare can move prices really good I think we we got through at least is there any parade I haven't rained on yet I don't think so I think we covered them all so okay thank you so much for coming on to talk we we spent a lot of time on gold we'll have to come back at some point and and do the other ones in more detail but thank you very much great to have you always and once again I'm Charlotte boud with investing news.com and this isra of

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