Hello , Golds family. Alan Hibbert with another video. And today I want to talk about gold versus the stock market because more investors have more wealth in the stock market than in anything else. And I'm concerned that might not be such a good idea. Let's dive in. According to Global Markets Investor, US household wealth has never been more dependent on the S&P 500 performance. US households hold a massive 80% of their assets in equities, an all-time high. The share is even higher than at the dot era peak. We're


going to talk more about the dotcom era in just a minute. Diversification is nearly non-existent among US households. This is insane. Yes, absolutely. You can see that the share of assets in equities is growing. Ever since the 2008 global financial crisis, it's been going straight up up at 80%. And that's almost identical to holding a 100% equities. So when you hold 80% equities and 20% bonds, for example, you might think that you're diversified, but if you look at this correlation right here, 99%


correlation, there's basically no benefit when your bond allocation is only 20%. You can see over 50 years, the red line and the blue line are basically the same. So, it's almost like US households have 100% stocks. That's effectively what their portfolio is like. This is not good. Absolutely not good. Gold is now outperforming the NASDAQ over the last 5 years. Yes, read that again. Gold is now outperforming the NASDAQ over the last 5 years. Gold up 112%, NASDAQ 98%. And Praying Medic reminds us silver is


up 177% over 5 years. So, yes, gold is outperforming the NASDAQ. Very impressive. As I record this, we are over $4,000 per ounce. Durret says, "Gold and the S&P 500 both hit all-time highs today. Which one is the poser?" I think we know. So, this is a few days ago. Gold is over $4,000 right now. But the point is that when gold and stocks are both making all-time highs, he's saying, and I agree, that one of them is sincerely making real all-time highs, while the other is mostly an illusion.


Which is which? Well, you have to decide for yourself, but I think it's clear uh if you do your own research. Charlie Bolo reminds us that there are some months where the S&P 500 cape ratio has closed above 40. That's the cyclically adjusted PE price toearnings ratio. And there are only some I believe about 20 or so months throughout history where that ratio has closed above 40. And if we look here at this chart, this is 125 years of data. 125 years. That's a pretty long-term data set. This is


Robert Schiller. Robert Schiller's data, excuse me. And when has that cape ratio been extremely high? January of 1999 and all 12 months of 1999 as well as the first nine months of the year 2000, the dot bubble. Okay. And then September 2025. Okay. So 18 months, 17 of them were the dot bubble. Now we're up at those levels again. Could we be in another bubble? This metric suggests that we are. So, we'll see what happens in October, but we could absolutely be in a bubble. Just Dario says, "Another golden nugget of


Wall Street equity research here. Fun fact, all companies rated as a buy in this report of the dotcom era went bust. Thanks to global macrozen for sharing. So, this image here is from April of 2000, the dot era. And this is research from Goldman Sachs recommending different companies that are still strong buys in each sector. And according to the claim here in the tweet, every one of those companies went bust. I did not verify that for myself. I'm not sure if that's true, but the point here is that, you know, a lot of


the mainstream financial advisors are going to continue to recommend companies even right before they go bust. And if you don't believe me, we also see another example from Morgan Stanley in the 2008 financial crisis. Lehman Brothers, bruised, not broken, and poised for profitability. So that was June of 2008, and we know what happened shortly thereafter. So if you are looking to figure out where to put your money or your currency, you've got to do your own research. You absolutely have


to do your own research and look at the track record of other people who do research and see if their track record is any good. If there is a crash, let's just suppose, how long would it take to recover? Well, Oculus Trade has some nice stats for us here. The 1907 panic dropped 48%. It took 10 years to make new highs. The Great Depression, 1929, dropped 89%, took 25 years to recover. 1973 oil shock, 45% drop, 9 years to recover. Black Monday in 1987, 36%, 2 years to recover. 2000.com bust 78% drop


on the NASDAQ 15 years to recover 2008 financial crisis 57% 5 and a half years so these are many years sometimes decades to recover now look at the modern market in 2020 the COVID crash we got a new high in six months six months in 2022 new highs in 18 months 2025 new highs in one and a half months Crashes used to take years or decades to heal. Now the market is training you to believe that every dip will bounce until the one comes that doesn't. This is such a good point. And when that happens, it


won't bounce for years. Imagine if the top is already in and you don't see a new high again until 2040 or 2045. Most of you won't live to see it. And that's exactly what's about to happen. I think he's right. I think this is absolutely what's going to happen. And by the way, all these new highs that he's talking about, those are just nominal highs. They're not adjusted for inflation and they're not adjusted for real money, gold. So, let's look at some


of those numbers. Here we have the Dow gold ratio. So, we see the price of stocks measured in ounces of gold. And the market sniper tells us that in gold ounces, the 1929 high took 30 years to recover. 30 years. So depending on when that happens in your investing career, you might not get a recovery. Like you might not live to see it. 1966 high took 32 years. Same thing applies. The 1999 high will be unlikely to recover in even 50 or more years. So we're already halfway through that. It's 2025, so


we're halfway through a 50-year block. And you can see that the Dow gold ratio was up at 44, almost 45 back in 1999. and we're down here around 12 headed down towards one maybe 0.5 or 0.7. So it is unlikely that stocks are going to outperform gold for many many years and in order to make a new high it could be decades. It could be half a century. So this is a very very long time. You don't want to make this kind of mistake if you're an investor. All other equity prices were relatively insignificant in


gold ounces and were just part of the far larger cycle ups and downs. Yes, that includes the massive events of 2020, 2008, 1987, 1973, 1907. Okay, so he's saying that those events were just blips on a radar when you zoom out and we get these very, very big moves that take decades to play out. So his point, and I agree, is that you can't just sit in one asset class for your entire investing journey. You have to look at how one asset compares to another and make sure you pick the right direction


that it's going to move over time. So, for example, Dow Gold ratio. Sometimes the Dow does better, sometimes gold does better. You got to make the decision of which one you want to hold. So, I've made my choice and I've actually mentioned that in my upcoming series, Hidden Secrets of Value, where I talk about the Dow Gold Ratio specifically and how I think you can get rich making this type of decision for yourself. Check it out. [Music]