you know there are times when life just seems totally insane right now the pandemic is still going there's supposed to be a new strain out there society seems to be torn apart at the seams while america appears to be melting down completely yet the stock market is setting all-time highs but the real news has been bitcoin lately and in this video we're going to try to analyze is it too late to get into cryptocurrencies right now or is you know because there are some people saying oh bitcoin is going


parabolic it's going to crash well uh maybe maybe not uh we're going to take a look at that here a friend of mine recently sent me some technical analysis saying that bitcoin should do a major pullback very soon and then you can add to your positions or take a position but basically to wait for the pullback and i looked at it and i basically sent back a uh an email to him and i'm sort of going to cover that email here i'm just going to skip through it real quick but i said he's got to be looking at a linear chart


this is a linear chart uh linear is like one two three four five six seven uh here we've got 0 5 10 15 20 25 30. that's linear if this was logarithmic it would go 0 5 10 20 40 80 160 it would it would double each time if this was a log logarithmic chart but what this does when you look at a linear chart you you don't get true perspective of anything that is highly volatile and when you look at a long time frame you really have to look at a linear edit at a logarithmic chart instead of a linear chart like this


notice that this looks like it's scraping along at zero and then makes this little blip and goes back to just above zero and then makes this big parabolic blow off top goes almost to twenty thousand dollars and then crashes well it did do this parabolic blow off top and crash and this was a horrific crash it looks on this chart like it's doing the same thing right now but is it uh now i for this email i generated these charts in coinmarketcap.com uh it's a great place to go and look at


uh valuations or you know to look at what cryptocurrencies are doing it's just got the list of everything you can make charts very quickly but it only goes back to may of 2013. so um here uh bitcoin started the the low in 2013 was 69 by october it rose to 100 by november it had risen to 200 and then before the end of november uh it it hit 1130. that's a rise of 16.4 times or 1540 percent gain in just five months and then it made a big crash when it made that crash after it hits it hit a new low a low


of 173 dollars in january of 2015. now these are still linear charts then it went on to hit a high of nineteen thousand eight hundred and ninety five dollars so from that one hundred and seventy three dollar low we're up to almost twenty thousand dollars that was a rise of 115 times or eleven thousand four hundred percent gains during that period then it hit a low of thirty two hundred dollars in december of 2018 so you're going from almost twenty thousand dollars down to thirty two these are horrific frightening anxiety


inducing pullbacks and if you're somebody that jumps into cryptocurrencies as they're moving up and you think well maybe it's at a high but maybe it's going to go further and you jump in these can cause some sleepless nights uh and so now since the end of that this was this i wrote this at the end of the year it moved up to its current high of twenty nine thousand one hundred and twenty dollars however if it had the same percentage gains this time around as it did from 2015 low to its 2017


high then the next target would be more than 360 thousand dollars not 32 000. i don't know if the guy you're following knows something about bitcoin or not but he's definitely doing the wrong type of charting and basically um you know anybody that says that bitcoin has gone into uh a para bitcoin has gone parabolic and it's doomed they're looking at this type of chart it's it's you know you can barely see this 2014 rise it had this huge rise here now on the way up on this rise you know i've been


uh buying bitcoin since 2014 since right there and i bought all the way down to about 240 and then kept on buying a little and then turned it off and i took this ride my weekly accumulation i bought every single week turned it off took this ride and then i started converting some of my bitcoin into uh silver and uh maybe a little bit of gold i don't remember what the ratios were but mostly silver and i avoided this huge pullback and since then my silver has risen 70 percent from from there so here is the same chart in a


logarithmic format which measures the move in a constant percentage so in other words uh each inch on this chart is the same percentage move as the last inch or the next inch and this puts the 2014 rise in perspective with the rise here into 2017 and today's rise and here when you look at it this way this doesn't look like some parabolic blow off top this move here isn't even as steep as this move back here when bitcoin was rising just over a thousand dollars up toward its twenty thousand dollar


high so um uh the way that you look at charts charts can lie to you and anybody making charts can skew charts to into to their favor so you've always got to be suspicious whenever you're looking at a chart you got to look at it and say how can this chart be lying to you or how can the person that made this chart be lying to me you know what are they do they have something to gain by lying to me another way you could measure this is instead of looking at from the the low to the high and the low


to the high you could be looking at how far does it exceed once it breaks its previous high how far does it exceed that so looking at it measuring it from here to here or from here to here from its previous high right here up to this high this time around that's point 17.6 times or a one thousand six hundred and sixty percent gain if this time around it exceeds this previous high of just under twenty thousand dollars then the next peak would be up at around three hundred and fifty thousand dollars


so now you have two echoes of the past that are potential echoes of the past one with a target of 360 another one with a target of 350. so is it too late to jump into cryptocurrencies probably not however you know i'm right now i haven't been adding to my positions because i've got uh significant positions so is it possible it is possible that the guy you are following will turn out to be right but based on history the greater probability is that he will end up being wrong now there's one other little fact i want you


to see here this is an excerpt from a book that i've been writing that has been cut from the book but here is a list of some of the biggest bull markets in recent history number one bitcoin and i wrote this back in 2017 and the winner is bitcoin uh the absolute biggest most spectacular bull market in all of history is bitcoin first released in 2008 it was a curiosity known only to a few geeks and engineers called cypherpunks it didn't even have a price until 2010 when two papa john's pizzas were worth about


fifteen dollars each so thirty dollars worth of pizza were purchased for ten thousand bitcoins that transaction established a price ten thousand bitcoins by the way max kaiser just did a video in which he said that measured in bitcoin all fiat currencies are in hyperinflations and it's true it's all a matter of perspective and how you look at things and uh right now these two pizzas that were purchased in 2010 this 10 000 bitcoins that's 360 million dollars in today's bitcoin price


that was paid for those two pizzas 360 million dollars that is what happens in a hyperinflation it's exactly what happens um that transaction established a price of 0.003 dollars or three tenths of a penny per bitcoin on december uh 17 2017 it hit 20 000 total gain of more than 600 million percent nothing in history can compare well today that 600 million is now 1.2 billion percent since bitcoin first had a price now i'm going to move on uh into some more recent history and some uh analysis of where this could go and just


sort of a general overview of bitcoin and the crypto sector back in 2015 it's actually may 10th of 2015. i did a series of interviews peter schiff had flown to california and since he was in los angeles um i decided to get together with him and we filmed a series that was put into i believe a five-part series of peter and i discussing things there was actually a six part that was never released uh and that was about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies uh you know we we saw eye to eye on everything


except bitcoin and cryptocurrencies uh and every single question that i asked prompted a response from peter that said but what if it goes to zero that was the only answer but what if it goes to zero okay well guess what um may tenth of so we're talking about 240 dollars is where the price was today it's over 36 000 a rise of over 150 times but getting back to that video just a side note here you can see here that my arm is very very swollen i had a horrible bicycling accident that morning


and i had spent four hours in the emergency room uh i'm during these videos i was on morphine i'm bleeding and you'll notice if you watch these videos that i can't lift this arm off of the table i had severed my rotator cuff completely i was in some horrible pain during this thing and on morphine but uh got through those videos and then that last video uh but what if it goes to zero but what if it goes to zero we're going to explore here can bitcoin go to zero well i just want to remind you don't


look at linear charts look at logarithmic charts i also want to remind you i started buying here in uh and i told all of my insiders that i was putting a percentage of my portfolio into bitcoin also back in 2013 i went to an event up in fremont california to see elon musk speak drove my 2012 tesla model s the 599th model s off of the line up to fremont california and i met a man named tony galippi there and tony established a company called bitpay and after meeting him i became the first major precious metals


dealer to accept bitcoin so we're that we are the crypto friendly precious metals dealer and i use our own system to convert uh my cryptocurrency into gold as i'm taking profits out of cryptocurrency and it causes me to sleep a whole lot better at night but i continued buying all the way down to when you know i interviewed p peter back in may of uh 2015 and so i was still buying every single week and then turned it off took this free ride converted some of it into precious metals right in


at the ramp up of this blow off top and since then the precious metals have risen also and so uh i will be converting some more sometime but we're not there yet and a uh a logarithmic chart shows that this is not a parabolic blow off top so when people say that don't believe it so uh one of the things that you can use for a prediction tool here this may or may not turn out to prove accurate but you know uh looking back at the past it's been it's proven to be a pretty good model and that is the stock to flow ratio


um and so this site is wonderful uh digi digi talk um and they've got all of these different types of tools here and you should go there and take a look at it it's great but here it starts back in 2010 showing a price of uh one cent and you know we we know that it actually started at a third of a cent but what you're seeing here uh this purple line is the stock to flow ratio with a uh it's the 10-day moving average if you don't do some sort of moving average there's going to be huge noise


here it'll it'll bounce up and down so you average it and what you can see here is there's something called a having bitcoin started where um every time a to to make the bitcoin network run all of these miners have to run millions of computers that are guessing trying to guess a very large number and they do this trillions of times per second so you've got millions of computers guessing trillions of times per second it still takes 10 minutes for one of them to win and then it gets to it the block that it has


created uh gets accepted as the uh the block that's going to update all the ledgers in all of the computers that are running uh the bitcoin uh ledger all around the world uh and then every four years the number of bitcoins that a computer wins is halved and so this is a having so the uh stock the amount of bitcoins that are in existence compared to how many are coming into existence every 10 minutes is what we've got here and when it halves this ratio rises because there are fewer coming into existence and then the ratio


goes along and then it halves again and then it just halved again earlier this year and what you see here is that you know he's got a 463 day moving average i don't know why it's 463 but it tends to follow the price the price is the brightly colored line here and this is the number of days from the having so you start out with 1400 days and then you get down and gets closer and closer to having it's turning blue and then it turns to bright red again so you can see it turned bright red


here and here and then it catches up with the stock to flow ratio and it surpasses it it didn't surpass it by a huge amount last time but look at how far it surpassed at the previous times now i'm going to go to a chart that's a little bit easier to look at this model uses a 365 day moving average so each point along this line is the average of the previous 300 the previous year each day you add up all of those days over the previous year you average them and you plot that dot and so


here you can see that this model has been very good at predicting where the price is going and you can also see that this you know the last peak did on this model surpass uh the stock to flow uh on that and it's predicting a price up here of over a hundred thousand dollars and to me it does not look like bitcoin is going to into any parabolic blow off top right now there could be a little consolidation but uh i don't think it's like going to crash uh now peter schiff was always saying


but what if it goes to zero and there is that possibility and i'll show you that in a minute one of the things that you can also use to see whether bitcoin is already done with its performance or not is