Um, look, we're 10 days away from the first notice day of delivery for the March silver contract. And I think people really need to understand what this means. Um, as of Friday, there was 58,770 contracts that were left, open interest, as it's called, that could stand for delivery. Each contract is 5,000 ounces. So, that's 294 million ounces open interest right now for the March contract. Yeah, a bunch of it has rolled to May to the May contract because there was about 400 million ounces a week ago.


So about a 100 million ounces have rolled to to May which is the next big delivery month, not April. It's it's May. And that's normal, right? But it's still really very huge that we have 300 million ounces open this close to first notice. So I think what I take away from that is not a COMX default but even half of the open interest actually decided to stand for delivery. You're talking uh 150 million ounces that would need to get sourced. Right? The problem with that is that the registered silver


category that is the available silver backing the contracts available to deliver is about 90 million ounces. Right? So you know do the math. Uh if demand for delivery spikes, COMX has two options. Either drain registered in inventory very fast uh which would be I guess a very serious draw down or you have the price of immediacy increases where you have forced incentives. Premiums will increase uh exchange for physicals will increase. They will try and get people to roll to May uh by by incentivizing cash settlements with a


premium. Anything to keep mele anything to keep metal from from leaving. And um >> are you curious about investing in gold and silver but feel held back by fear or confusion? This ebook is designed especially for new investors who want clarity, not complexity. It breaks down gold and silver trading strategies in a simple, practical way. No jargon, no hype. Why wait? Hurry up. Please visit this link to get your copy today and use code Dundeep for a huge discount. More than 1,000 people took the first step


with this ebook. And today they're living proof that smart investing changes lives. Start investing fearlessly, wisely, and with a clear strategy. In my opinion, this is how the stress shows up. It's not in price, but it's in the delivery mechanisms and the delivery mechanics. And when the paper claims tower over the deliverable silver, I think the market um is calm until it isn't. And so I think really what you're looking at is even a portion of this stands for delivery. 20% stands


for delivery. You're talking what um 60 million ounces of the 90 million. This is a problem. And um yeah, so I think that's to me the biggest issue right now. What I'm watching is we'll see what happens over the next 10 days. Uh at the same time, you still have this big $10 premium in Shanghai uh over the western price that this arbitrage is not going away. They're continuing to incentivize the the people here in the west who have the ability to buy cheap 75 bucks or whatever and sell it for 85 bucks. In


China, a lot of people say, "Well, what about the the um the difference in price is is the uh the tax the no, the VAT tax, right? Not not tariffs, that there's a VAT tax, which is true, but it's not true, right? These are people not quite understanding the mechanics. The VAT tax is really there, but it is it's the responsibility of the recipient because when metal is delivered to Shanghai and you get that $10 arbitrage spread, you deliver 50 million ounces at 10 bucks, you just made 500 million $500


million. Uh that VAT tax is the responsibility of the recipient when it leaves when it leaves the Shanghai exchange. So it's not paid until it leaves. If it stays there, there is no tax. So, in other words, that arbitrage is significant enough at this point for a $10 uh premium plus like a 13 or 14 or 15% tax. They don't care. They want the metal. And so, this is all I think uh noise. You have to see the big picture. You have to relax, see the big picture, understand it for what it truly


truly is. And I I think yes, the volatility is enough to freak a lot of people out. But look, silver is the canary in the coal mine. And uh I think it's exposing a paper market built by banks um that that trade credit, not real metal. And real demand is showing up in Shanghai. And price discovery is shifting there. It's leaving London. It's leaving New York. And as long as the western paper market stays disconnected to Shanghai like it is now, the phys physical silver will keep getting pulled out of the west and sent


to where it's valued. And look, you look the scary part, it's even getting tight in Shanghai with premiums starting to blow out. And and I think that's why to me the forwards and the futures are starting to feel almost undeliverable for a lot of people. This is why you're seeing backwardation where the market makers are having a hard time sourcing metal. They can't hedge easily. >> Andy Shexchman highlights a stark contrast in the markets. While retail investors rush into the so-called


magnificent seven stocks, the true action is unfolding in silver. He points out that the first notice day is just 10 days away with 294 million ounces of paper claims stacked against only 90 million ounces of registered silver. If just 20% of these claims are presented for delivery, it could trigger a full-blown crisis. Meanwhile, a $10 premium in China is incentivizing physical silver to flow from the west to the east, compounding the tension. The CME has raised margins so aggressively that refiners are now struggling to


operate, further straining supply. >> I've been saying since 2020 on your show, the central banks have figured it out of the of the global south. Stand for delivery slowly. Don't do it too fast. Everyone says, "Why don't they just throw bill trillions of dollars out? Cuz you kill yourself. You cut off your nose to spite your face." They've been masterful at draining the exchanges all around the world. And that slow, insidious, little by little part, people can't handle. It's too monotonous. It's


too slow. It's it's a nothing burger. But as you can see, we're getting to the point where they're running out of available silver to deliver. And that to me is all you need to see. On top of who's been standing for delivery every single month, month over month over month over month over month for billions and billions and billions of dollars. They don't do this for the hell of it. What you see right now is just the volatility meant to throw the rest of us off the scent, off the trail and join


the highest influx into global US equities in history. They want the rest of us in the pen with the uh with the rest of the sheep. At the same time, you got billionaire David Einhorn. I don't know if you saw that article, but he thinks that that gold is well on of its way to becoming the world's ultimate reserve asset. This is a guy that runs one of the biggest hedge funds in the world and he's saying that it's already replacing treasuries as we've talked about for the last several years as


central bank's reserve asset because the confidence in this system both fiscal and macro outlook is getting worse. I've never seen a market like this. Never ever. I mean, let's go back to the pandemic. Premiums on junk. We were paying $9 over spot for four years. Anyone that would sell us as much as they would sell us, we would pay N bucks over spot.