[Music] hello and welcome to this video I've got Alan hibb with me once again Allan how are you doing I'm great Mike thanks how are you good so uh you know you've let me know that there is a question that uh you've been asked that people are asking and I've I already know what the question is so I prepared a little presentation do you want to tell people about uh what's going on and the question that people have been asking yeah people have uh started to notice what's going on in the banking sector


particularly with New York Community Bank and it's uh plummeting stock price and all of the uh controversy surrounding it and we put together a dedicated URL for all of our viewers that they can go to and stay up to date on all the latest tweets articles videos anything that we can find that's that's related to the banking crisis and the thing that people keep asking is why isn't Mike making a video on this what does he think well you know um it's it's interesting to read that this is


seemingly starting to spread uh because it there an article that I read about it uh said that Deutsche Bank may be affected and that is a big systemic bank but anyway you know uh I've been giving the reason I haven't said anything yet is pretty simple it's because I have said something I've been saying something for over a year now it just didn't have the name New York Community Bank on it it it uh I've been saying that this was inevitable that this had to happen and you know back uh after the


Silicon Valley Bank I pointed out that in April of 2007 New Century Financial filed for bankruptcy and then five months later there were Bank runs at England's Northern Rock and then six months after that was Bear Sterns collapsing so uh you've you've got these time lags uh that that happen with these cracks but that still wasn't the biggie then four months after that indac and Countrywide Financial collapse so that started the ball really roll you know Bear Sterns and Indie MAAC and


Countrywide started the ball really rolling uh in the US and then uh two months later 2008 uh Fanny May and Freddy m are nationalized now I'm going to stop here and ask you what you think about all of this and what you in that last one Fanny May and Freddy Mack have you got any idea of what the um side effects of that are uh what yeah uh well anytime the government nationalizes anything uh it just kind of delays any problem because they they have no uh risk essentially or they perceive that they have no risk but


obviously VI ly you know you can't just Kick the Can forever so so I would think that this would delay problems and exacerbate them so that an eventual crash is ultimately even bigger yeah I just find it interesting that there's these you know they paper over something and there's a pause they delay it paper over it another pause but when it comes to Fanny May and Freddy Mack Ben banki gave that speech deflation making sure it doesn't happen here back in 2002 and in it he laid out all of these different


things that the the he said that the Federal Reserve can expand their menu of assets they purchase like they're sitting in a restaurant well the Federal Reserve Act limits them to only being able to purchase uh Securities that are uh guaranteed by the US government as to the principle and the interest so it has to be guaranteed by the taxpayer by nationalizing Fanny May and Freddy Mack all of the mortgage back Securities that they had created Fanny May and Freddy Mack which is a vast majority of all


mortgage back Securities uh are you know the ones that that agent those these agencies were involved with were then eligible for the Federal Reserve to purchase through open market operations before that they weren't now I find it interesting that this happened before QE that this was like just before the whole thing is going to unravel and fall apart uh this item was placed on the menu like a special for B ber you going into a restaurant do you have any specials yes we've got mortgage back


Securities it's delicious try it one week later lemman Brothers the largest bankruptcy in history and this is where it all starts but the point is you know we've just experienced uh um uh Silicon Valley signature uh silvergate uh um uh I I can't remember the others but anyway one day after that AI IG gets bailed out nine days after that Washington Mutual that was the largest bankruptcy of a of a bank largest uh bank failure in history uh and you know um the papering that they did in


March and April uh you know I was at dinner last night actually with a couple of colleagues uh newsletter writers and people you know in this industry uh that uh either write about Investments or they have a an investment service they manage capital and um uh they they were saying you know well they were able to you know we're waiting for like this whole thing to fall apart and it doesn't necessarily have to fall apart uh if you remember gold was about a th it fell down to 700 during the uh the crisis in 2008 and


then it went from 700 to 1900 and now it's at 2,000 you know I will take that same percentage move again and they can paper over it again but even though uh the whole financial system did not collapse it wasn't Bernan gedon NE necessarily but I do believe that we're in for uh the you know if we're going to experience Global financial crisis 2024 if not 2024 it's going to be 2025 but I I really think that we are in for something big and because of the scale of the bubbles that we are in right now


they are bigger than they were back in uh 2007 when the 2008 crisis started B basically uh because of the scale of these Bubbles and because of all of the previous interventions and warping and twisting of the economy uh that it's actually going to be worse and and require a far greater percent and I wrote about this in my uh update to my first book that in 2015 where I outlined um how the government whenever the um I call it um the fog the financialization of government fog financialization of


government whenever the stock market goes down now so does government income tax revenues fall and so when you have a big crisis like 2008 you not only see deficit spending expand but then it becomes even worse as they plan on deficit spending by passing these huge budgets these spending bills to try and save us but at the same time tax revenues are falling so they get them they they're digging a hole deeper but they're digging a hole in quicksand it's just getting deeper and deeper and deeper so Washington Mutual a


month later now the the um the uh crisis of 2008 is starting to end and you're you're not seeing like uh two months one week one day nine days it's back to one month City Group bailout General Motors and Chrysler bailed out Bank of America bailed out and uh and so have you got any comments on all of that well I think for the most part thematically I agree with you um I just think it would be interesting to to Overlay that timeline with some of the quotes from bernacki or you know different presidents or


politicians saying oh subprime is contained you know one week ler you and so it would be interesting to Overlay those quotes if you ever get to updating it yeah I I think it was less than a month before Leman or something like that that he he said uh subprime will not affect the main the you know the regular economy the main main economy um you know this presentation that I'm showing you um I made a version of this for um uh first uh right after the uh the Silicon Valley bank failure and then uh I updated it and made it a


little bit more powerful for a wealth on presentation and then updated it again to this one that you're seeing here that was my uh I I recorded it originally on Thanksgiving Day uh and it was um uh the um emergency Market Market emergency video that uh was from Thanksgiving and I was warning everybody about this and then Todd saxs who runs a uh real estate uh channel YouTube channel uh interviewed me and what's interesting is you know I've been saying stuff that's very anti-government and anti-federal


reserve for a long time and I've been feeling that our channel is getting throttled that it isn't you know it's basically Shadow Banning when they limit the amount of recommendations on that sidebar and stuff so it's a it's a form of censorship is what it is but um uh I went over all of this with Todd sax and so that our on our channel it's got like 880,000 views and on his channel it's got 600,000 views same presentation and for him it was done like two months after I was


giving this warning on Thanksgiving that people need to get ready for this now if we have the same scale move I mean it went from uh uh 700 to over, 1900 so you know well more than a doubling uh and we're at 2,000 now so you're talking $45,000 gold I will take that even if they're able to paper over this thing because the only way they can paper over it is with massive massive currency creation but I pointed out the uh size of the failure well you can't really see my cursor on this sorry um but if you


look at the center of these circles uh you'll see that that uh the first big thing on here that shows up IndyMac uh Bank uh the center of that circle is quite a bit before uh Washington Mutual and Leman Brothers doesn't show up on here it would fill the entire chart from top to bottom or more uh but then you look at the size you know there there was indac and all of these other little bubbles that were starting to burst before this that very center on the timeline of Washington Mutual so there


were quite a bit of bank failures and emergencies happening that were warning signs and look at what our first warning signs have been in 2023 signature Silicon Valley uh First Republic isn't isn't on this one for some because this chart was made before uh the First Republic uh was um merged or bailed out whatever happened there I can't remember and uh there was a shotgun wedding for credit swis with us UBS and I was going to call it USB UBS uh and uh if that hadn't happened uh the entire you know


that was a systemically important Bank to where the entire Financial system would have Frozen up if uh if credit Swiss went under but it was at risk of that happening and this is I I I said then this is only the beginning these things do you remember how hard you and I were working to try and get the book out because we knew that the uh that this crisis that happened March and April of 2023 we knew that was going to happen you and and me we were absolutely positive and we were rushing to try and


get the book out and onto Amazon before this thing actually broke loose uh and uh it's just like I know I you know people say well why aren't you commenting on uh uh New York uh Bank New York Community Bank uh and it's because I have been for more than a year we started with the crazy rate of change of the FED changing interest rates and so when you look at and and this is uh fairly old as well hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if you'd like to help our Channel please


consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we're one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I'm doing with my own Investments thanks for making goldsilver.com your dealer and now back to the video but um when you're because they estimated uh 2023 is estimated in here but uh unrealized losses on lenders balance sheets in billions and you've got held to maturity


so they don't have to disclose the stuff in red they're saying this is going to be held to maturity but somebody calculated the all of the um uh bonds and notes that they're saying the um the bills most of those are available for for sale if it's a three-month Bond or whatever that's the backbone of the banking system any comments on on this the the danger that's involved here well yeah it's massive and it's got to show up somewhere and based on the type of analysis that you and I do when we look


at the sort of macro picture it's very hard for us to come up with a specific name like a New York Community Bank because we don't go into the weeds we're not we're not specifically banking experts you know we we analyze the economy more broadly so I mean we can say like okay there's going to be a banking crisis and it's only it's basically a coin flip from our perspective or a role of the dice who's going to be first what's the name going to be but we know it's coming um so yeah


just hurry up and wait I guess from my perspective I think that anybody that isn't holding precious metals right now is putting themselves at tremendous risk and I think they're just absolutely I mean it's an insane thing not to hold the uh the primary asset of central the the foundation I should say of all central banks assets you know it's a tier one asset now gold and uh countries that don't have enough gold have been accused accumulating gold in their central banks with the exception of like


Canada and stuff uh but all of the Eastern countries know there's something coming and these are like the shots across the bow the the cracks in the foundation and people need to pay attention to what's going on and protect themselves and so uh you know you said that this doesn't have any particular name on it well this uh oh that was 2008 by the way so look at the exposure we had back then almost nothing and uh they were all listed as available for sale they weren't being kept secret to make


their balance sheets look look better if you mark it as held to maturity your balance sheet is going to look better than if you mark it to Market what you could sell it for today if there was an emergency and you needed those funds because you had a bunch of customers withdrawing uh Capital cash from your bank and uh and you need to raise some Capital then you've got to sell these bonds and if they have if they're forced to sell the ones that are marked held to maturity then they have to mark them to


Market so all of that the red on here that is a lie on their balance sheet that they're saying well it's worth full face value well it's not and uh and then but in the next one we do have the four big Banks unrealized losses now I do have to you know as all of these things unfold we all learn more and more and more and the small smaller banks have a higher exposure to the commercial real estate problem uh the smaller banks have a much higher exposure really big banks have like a six seven 10% exposure small Banks can


have 20 25 30% exposure and so what you're going to see is a whole bunch of these small Banks and we've been seeing this now ever since the Federal Reserve was established uh you know they it was it was passed in 1913 but it was November of 1914 when they opened their doors and ever since then we've been seeing this consolidation to where there's fewer and fewer and fewer Banks available which means there's fewer experiments going on free market experiments in banking and uh there are


fewer choices for all of us but if you look at the scale the red one which is Bank of America which I bank at I've one of the banks that I bank at is Bank of America uh it's got the largest exposure uh to these unrealized losses of uh of uh bills bonds and notes being marked to Market instead of uh marked to I mean being marked being uh held to maturity is the way they're keeping them on their balance sheet versus marking them to Market and that is a very dangerous thing and you know in uh chapter six I


think it is of uh great gold and silver rush we come across the point of no return this is an album cover from a a Frank Sinatra album that I like but uh this is the point of the point of no return is the return or should I say lack thereof it's return on investment you made this chart you came up with a great but technical explanation and I put it all in the book and I said to the readers it's okay if you don't understand that just it means you know Allan has this right but uh explain this chart for us


because you made it yeah absolutely so what we're looking at here the Blue Line This the squiggly blue line is the five-year change in GDP divided by The Five-Year change in Gross federal debt so we could ask ourselves okay if if the federal government takes on more debt if they take on a dollar of debt and it leads to $2 in GDP growth then arguably that might have been a good investment arguably right right but if the government cash flow real estate or something yes yeah yeah there there's a


there's a way if it it spends a dollar on some public service and then people derive tremendous benefit from it and end up creating value and paying more in taxes and so forth it could make sense but if you get to a point where you're taking on a dollar of debt as a country right the the federal government takes on a dollar of debt and you only get 50 cents worth of GDP or 10 cents worth of GDP it's definitely a a bad idea and you should stop immediately like there's pretty much no argument about it so uh


what we see here this downward trajectory is that every initially every dollar of debt was yielding over7 in GDP growth which is pretty impressive and that trend has dropped until about uh looks like 2008 approximately is when that blue line crosses below the red line and Inception of Bernan conomics yeah and that's when we're in that downward spiral that I mean you really got to take action and get out of that immediately because every additional dollar of debt is producing less than a


dollar of GDP growth it's a really bad investment it's it's a divestment you're you're sort of choosing to dig a hole um so you you got to stop immediately and it doesn't look like we're stopping our government is what this says to me is we have in 2008 we passed the point of no return and what the government is doing especially with this insane SP standing Bill and stuff they the politicians still think that we're in the good old days back you know the 60s 7s 88s 90s


when when we would uh we when we could borrow our way to Prosperity but now all we can do is dig the pit deeper and this pit is going to be digging our own grave that is the problem with beran conomics and it's going to lead to Bera gedon which I think is something that lies right around the corner and if they are able if they are successful if if people go oh yeah but they'll just pay they'll fix it again I expected it to happen in 2008 but they'll fix it again and that's sort of what I heard last night and but


my response is yeah but if gold went from 700 to 2,000 I'm still fine with that and so I really do think that you know if gold goes from 2,000 to four or 5,000 I'm fine with that too and that would be the result of them trying to fix this and you do have to look at where when they started QE this line was still positive it hadn't turned negative yet and it's the result of QE and the levels of debt that we have that have caused this uh any closing words uh well yeah I mean yeah I guess I guess I don't need


to belabor the Chart here we we've kind of gone over that but like when when you and I look at these long-term trends um you know we see all these things that are sort of I don't know irrefutable like I haven't I haven't heard good arguments against it it's just it's just inevitable that that these crises are going to happen and I'm optimistic that we can get out of this in a safe way and I don't really want the price of gold to go up measured in dollars I like it's if


it stays flat that's fine with me because that means the world is probably okay in order for it to trip triple in price that means something really bad happens and that that's going to affect people's lives and livelihoods yeah um so so I don't want that but anyways before we go I just want to remind everyone um you know we can only make these videos every so often and if they want to know if people want to know what's going on in the world in the banking sector and in the the various


sectors that will um be connected they can go to that URL that we have they go to um Golds silver.com click that first link or you can go in the description of this video go to a dedicated URL we'll have all the latest tweets articles videos from other people videos from ourselves shorts whatever we have for any bank that might be experiencing a problem or again any any uh related sector so so yeah that's how people can stay on top of it and uh thank you Mike for putting this all together thank you


Ellen and I want to thank everybody for watching please like subscribe and click that notification Bell we'll see you next time