hey everyone welcome to my channel and welcome back to my subscribers this is bald guy money i am bald guy and today we are talking everything gold specifically we are going to be taking a deep look into the numbers behind the price of gold and where gold can be going in 2022 so do not miss a second of this video watch to the very end and before i start take a moment right now give me a little feedback please drop me a like which is a message to me to keep making videos like this and also everybody for every like you drop down


there this gets the message out to more potential gold investors which can of course help the price of gold go up so help me out right now by dropping a like okay so now that you've done that gold is climbing upwards let's pull up the first chart here's what it's looked like so far in 2022 so congrats to all of my viewers who are gold hodlers investors savers dollar cost averages whatever you call yourself uh because even though none of this is financial advice in my opinion i think


you've made a wise choice but i mean looking at these numbers i understand three percent up year to date it's not earth shattering i mean bitcoin can do three percent in less than an hour but it's moments like this when equities are coming down so let's bring up actually the dow jones industrial average here today here you go down five percent it's moments uh like this you know you're happy that you have hedged against other things like the us dollar or the stock market or or even crypto right


but don't get carried away with what i'm saying i still believe in the stock market and a few very select cryptos which i think are definitely worth investing in but it's moments like this when i feel vindicated being a long-term holder of gold and silver so i have been playing with some of the numbers looking at potential scenarios and correlations to determine where we are possibly going to go with the price of gold and here are a couple of my conclusions the first conclusion is that the stock


market still has some downward movements left to make okay and as a result of that i've come to my second conclusion which is gold as always will attract more what we call risk off money as the market comes down so what risk off is is basically less risky investments and gold is traditionally a less risky investment and it is traditionally seen as a fantastic hedge to a declining stock market now just so you know that i'm not talking out of my butt let's pull up the next chart this is one that i showed in my october


5th video called stock market crash facts and my assumption back then in that video was that the stock market was due for a correction of up to 25 and taking a look at the dow jones industrial average which i just showed a moment ago it seems that we are down about five percent year-to-date but six percent off of the end of 2021 highs which means we still have potentially 19 to 20 percentage points still to come down and if so far this year for every five percentage points in downward movement the price of gold has risen by three


percentage points as we've observed so far we can make a primitive calculation to assume that we have about 12 percentage points still to come up from the year's starting price bringing us up to a price per ounce around 2071 which is a total increase of 15 since the beginning of the year's opening price which was 1 800 1 now that's a very crude way of doing things but it is an effective way of getting a ballpark idea of where we could be going during this downward market period but


there is a better way something i try to educate all my viewers on is calculating things in terms of market cap or total valuation of a company commodity or crypto project and the reason for that is because the value of something is very heavily dependent on how much of that something there actually is for example let's take this let's take this for example you have two companies here company x and company y you can see that company x has issued a thousand shares in its company and the value per share is 100


that means the total market cap or the total value of company x is one hundred thousand dollars looking at company y they've only issued 500 shares in their company but the value per share is 200 per share which means that even though the value per share of company y is double what it is company x the total value of the company is the same because they have less shares issued and that's at one hundred thousand dollars so now what this has to do with the price of gold is simple we know the total market cap or value of


all the gold in the world is about 10 trillion dollars that's a very big number so getting gold to make big price moves upwards is very difficult and it requires a lot of money imagine if all the gold like i said is valued at 10 trillion dollars for the price of an ounce to move from today's price of 1 853 per ounce up to two thousand dollars uh which is a price by the way i regularly hear people quoting nowadays on youtube that requires the valuation of all the gold in the world to go up by


800 billion dollars so how much money could potentially move into gold over the next few months as the market comes down that's basically the question we have to answer to determine what the potential price of gold is going to be moving forward well look at this this chart shows the total valuation of the american equities market remember equities are stocks at the end of 2021 which was basically the top now we've already covered that this number is five to six percent lower today which brings us


to a value today uh which is around a generous 51 trillion dollars it's still it's a lot of money it's it's really hard to wrap your head around that the equities market is worth around 51 trillion dollars now remember there are markets also outside of the us and other parts of the world and they are also in the same downward trend as the u.s market and will also likely seek gold i'm saying investors in those markets will likely seek gold in part as a risk off investment to store


money until things calm down now let's bring up the next chart so we know that the u.s markets are about 56 percent of all the equity markets so knowing that we can easily calculate the amount of money in the worldwide equity markets which is not 51 trillion dollars but actually around 91 trillion dollars and if we assume that 20 of this money is still going to be looking for a home in the coming months that means about 18 trillion dollars is going to end up being split somehow between roughly


these things so here you see on this image you see that it'll be split between people investing in gold also bitcoin people who will be holding money in cash people who will move their money into low-risk stocks or dividend stocks and people who will be moving money into bonds as the bond yields increase as the federal reserve tries to take money off of the market or as they say soak up some of the liquidity now that we know all of that i have put together a model showing three scenarios one conservative one medium and one


aggressive to determine what kind of gold price we could be seeing in 2022 and here it is so you can see in the first scenario if gold is able to capture about five percent of the 18 trillion dollars that is going to be looking for a home soon that will increase the market cap of gold which is today ten trillion dollars by about nine percent meaning the new price of gold would be around two thousand twenty dollars per ounce looking at the medium scenario we see that it could capture about 10 of the 18 trillion dollars which means


that gold would see a market cap growth of about 18 bringing the price of gold up to 2187 per ounce and which is actually not that far off from the crude estimate that we did at the very beginning of the video now in a very aggressive scenario which i think is it's possible but i think it's less likely gold could capture 15 of that 18 trillion dollars meaning that the market cap growth of gold would go up about 27 and the price of gold would reach 2 353 per ounce and i hope that i've made it perfectly


clear exactly how the price of something moves with the market cap and i know again i i've mentioned some of the other videos i've seen online and i've seen people calling for five thousand six thousand dollar gold for me i mean i hope that you understand what i've shown you with the amount of money that's actually in the equities markets and what the market cap of gold is that that kind of price target at least within 2022 is very very unlikely and with that that is basically how i


see the market right now and potentially the the price of gold developing within 2022 none of this is guaranteed of course and the markets can make quick reversals for no good reason at all so be sure to be careful before making any financial decisions and never invest money in anything that you can't afford to lose as always if you have any comments to add please do so i am active in the comment section if you comment i promise i will somehow reply to you and with that i wish you all a fantastic


week ahead happy valentine's day it's valentine's day today isn't it 14th it is happy valentine's day everybody take care of yourselves take care of each other and see you in the next one adios