With so much gold concentrated now in the hands of central banks, entities that are not subject to margin calls, they are not trading gold to make a profit, but they're rather holding it as a reserve asset. This is not the same market that existed during previous crashes. Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And with a plan that Ukraine allegedly agrees to in place to end the Russia Ukraine war, I was asked this week if I was concerned that it would crash gold and silver prices. And to be


perfectly straightforward, the answer is no. First off, because it's good to see wars end, but number two, the conflict by itself has had little to no impact on the long-term prices of gold and silver, as we saw them crash in the months following the start of the war due to central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, raising interest rates in their fight against inflation, showing us all, that it's rate policy that drives metals prices more than war, along with the now


irreversible reputational damage done to the US dollar and the euro as reserve assets as a consequence of what they did during the war when they froze Russian assets in 2022 and later approved their outright confiscation in 2024 which has just pushed central banks increasingly towards gold and just can't be undone at this point even if a peace deal is reached and with the Federal Reserve now expected to lower rates again in December, which is something I warned you all about back on November 16th when


I said gold and silver could retest their all-time highs as soon as December. There is literally nothing stopping the gold and silver train at this point. And that's precisely what I want to cover in this video, starting with why the Federal Reserve has no choice but to pursue policy that will result in higher gold and silver prices. with some brand new points I want to bring to your attention. Once that's covered, I want to reopen the topic of metals and mining stocks in a market crash to show you all what's really


different this time and why the relationship between gold and the US dollar and a market crash may never be the same again. And that will also contain some information on how I think you can protect your mining stock positions while earning some money via dividends at the same time. Now, just before we dive in, I want you all to know that this bonus midweek video has been made possible by investing.com and their powerful market analysis tool, Investing Pro, which I use to track my personal mining stock portfolio and is


now available to all of you at a steep discount leading into Thanksgiving and Black Friday with a 60% discount for all of my viewers on top of the additional 15% you get when you use my link. So, this is a huge discount. And it gives you access not only to the useful desktop and laptop computer version of the service that allows you to easily compare stocks you own, in this case Numont Mining, with other stocks in the sector to help you identify new and sometimes even better opportunities. But it also gives you access to their mobile


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upside opportunity all from your mobile phone. So, if you want to supercharge your investing not only in mining stocks, but any stocks, please take advantage of this offer and use my link in the pinned comment and video description below to get an extra 15% off the current 60% discount on this service. I sincerely recommend it. So, jumping in, as I said in my Sunday video, we need to focus on the signal when it comes to gold and silver that will drive prices over the long term, not the noise that is intended to make


us doubt and sell gold and silver at current prices to institutional investors, including central banks who are only more than happy to buy at these prices, just like they did in October and November 2024 when metal's prices pulled back only slightly. People called the top of the metals market and central banks piled in to make their largest purchases of the year. So, don't be fooled here because it wasn't long ago that the mainstream financial media was taking Jerome Powell at his word when he


said the Fed might not cut rates in December, which applied pressure to gold and silver prices as well as mining stocks, which we will cover a bit more shortly, but pulled back 19% in early November as measured by the GDX large miners ETF, despite the fact that metals hadn't really moved that much. And it's why I was preaching patience with the mining stocks only a couple weeks ago. Because just like a dad telling his kids that he's going to turn the car around if they don't start behaving, Jerome


Powell's words look like empty threats just weeks after he said them. with the Federal Reserve not only expected to cut rates in December, but expected to cut them to 3% or even lower by April of next year, keeping us, of course, on our path to real negative interest rates by March or April of next year, which will impact gold and silver in the opposite way that raising rates did in 2022 when rates went from negative to positive and metals prices came down significantly. despite the start of the Russia Ukraine


war which many had incorrectly thought would only result in higher metals prices no matter what. So I hope that relationship between real interest rates and gold and silver prices is now clear for everyone because people who are concerned about wealth preservation and there are plenty of such people in the world. They are going to flock to the only safe haven left once real official rates go negative early next year and buying US bonds becomes even more of a losers investment. And that only safe


haven, the last place to find safety and security in what I think we can all agree is not only an overpriced market but an extremely volatile market is gold and to a lesser extent silver. Now, to those of you saying that there's no guarantee this is going to happen, let me tell you this. Even if they don't cut rates in December, the Fed is backed into a corner with mounting pressure to prioritize saving the economy, which despite information out there claiming it's great, it's not really all that


great. As you can see here in the ADP private payroll data, which shows the US private sector has lost jobs over the last three weeks with official government data released just a couple weeks ago, including revisions for the month of August showing that instead of adding jobs in the month of August, the US market actually lost jobs. And I think where you can most clearly see this is when we look at the Russell 2000 index, which is a stock index made up of smaller cap US companies. And in my opinion and the opinion of many other


experts out there, it is a great reflection of US economic health. And this index is up only 1% today versus its 2021 highs despite major growth in the S&P 500 and an official increase in market prices according to the CPI of 17% over the same period of time. And what this tells me and the Fed definitely sees this too is that the US economy is already in recession. And it means not only more rate cuts are coming in 2026 and negative real interest rates and probably even quantitative easing,


but it means higher metals prices are also on the way. And the market is making that perfectly clear as conviction in owning metals remains high with gold price currently consolidating down only about 4% versus its high 27 days after making it in October. Whereas gold had already lost 12% in 2011 , 27 days after making its high and fell 22% in the 27 days after making its high in 1980. And when we look at silver, which usually overreacts to any negativity in the market, we all know that. And is a


great leading indicator of gold and silver market tops. It's holding up extremely well after making its recent high, down only about 2% from the high. 29 days after making it. While silver price had already gone down 23% 29 days after making its high in 2011 and nearly 30% 29 days after making its high in 1980. And that's because real investors know what's going on here and they're holding their metals while traders are the ones contributing to short-term volatility, which has decreased notably


as a healthy fear of shorting silver has been instilled in these traders because even as silver is above $50 an ounce, short sales volume on the SPAT physical silver ETF has crashed since October 20th. It is extremely low as you can see on the chart here. And from my point of view, this is just another very promising sign for both gold and silver moving forward. So, with that covered, it's time for this video's viewer question, which comes from Mo Abbott, who wants to know, "What will happen to


metals and miners if the stock market crashes?" And it's a great question because, as far as I'm concerned, market fundamentals have significantly changed over the past few years. and not enough analysts are correctly building those changing fundamentals into their models or communicating this to people via social media. So, jumping in to those of you who are worried about the safety of your gold, silver, and mining stocks in a market crash. Luckily, we experienced a mini crash earlier this year with the


S&P 500 pulling back about 20% from midFebruary to early April. And that's versus a 25% pullback from the end of 2021 to October 2022. So I think we can all agree when I say it was significant enough to trigger some margin calls which is forced selling in the market even of good profitable assets which is done to secure loans that have been made to traders and is usually what hits precious metals the hardest along with liquidity crunches. Now, in addition to that pullback, which you are looking at


on this crazy chart here, it can't exactly be classified as a flash crash since it took place over about 50 to 60 days depending on how you measure it. So, this was a real crash, albeit a mini one. And if there's anything we learned from it, it's that gold is in a completely new reality versus where it used to be as price moved up during the majority of the crash, only significantly pulling back during a 3-day period by about 5%. In fact, it was 4.8% during which time the S&P 500 pulled


back about 13%. And despite an initial sell-off in the mining stocks measured by the GDX here, they turned around by early March, which was very early in the crash. And they even started to move up with gold even as the S&P 500 sold off with silver being the only one of these three to have really dropped below its pre-crash price during the final days of the crash. Now, I know that's probably a lot for all of you to take in, but it is very significant because common wisdom tells us that everything sells off in a


market crash, even gold, and that it's the US dollar that goes up. But during those 50 to 60 days, as the S&P 500 sold off, the US dollar went from 107 on the US dollar index down to 103 as the price of gold went up. never closing below its pre-pullback highs despite the major market crash that was happening. Now, this doesn't mean that gold couldn't have pulled back more if the crash had continued. But what I'm saying is that with so much gold concentrated now in the hands of central banks, entities


that are not subject to margin calls, they are not trading gold to make a profit, but they're rather holding it as a reserve asset. This is not the same market that existed during previous crashes. Which means as we come back to this image here, the pullbacks won't be as serious for precious metals or even the miners as they have been during market crashes of the past. Even if we see deeper corrections for silver versus gold, which we've always seen deeper corrections for silver versus gold


during major market volatility. Now, with that said, since we can't predict when a crash is going to happen and from what levels gold and silver will pull back from and really what levels they're going to pull back to, I think it's more important to focus on the one thing that stayed the same earlier this year versus past market crashes. And that is once the market started to come back, gold, silver, and the mining stocks led the way back up with the fastest rebounds. and the largest gains. Now, just before


we finish this video, I want to reveal something to you all for the first time here on YouTube that I think is very important on the topic of mining stocks, which are rebounding fantastically right now, as I told you all they would a couple weeks ago. But what I want to share with you all is one strategy that I think is a good one in the spirit of protecting your downside risk on mining stocks while also earning some great money at the same time in something that I think is objectively undervalued right


now. And that is oil stocks. And the reason I took a position in them is because as you can see in the image here on the screen, fluctuating oil prices have historically impacted mining stock prices as higher oil prices negatively impacts their profitability and lower oil prices positively impacts their profitability since of course they use a lot of oil in their operations. Now I think metal's prices are strong enough that the miners could shrug off higher oil prices. So, it's not a major concern


of mine, but with oil price at $58 a barrel, below its 5-year average of $76 a barrel, and even below its average price since 2000, which is about $64 per barrel. I also see value here as the upside opportunity is much larger than the downside risk. And for transparency, I am invested in some oil and energy stocks, including Exxon Mobile, which is currently paying a 3.6% dividend through an ETF I own. And what I want to say to anyone like Mo who asked the viewer question for this video who may be


concerned about how a market crash is going to impact the mining stocks, what I think you should be concerned about, where I think you should put your focus is on the structural threats to mining stocks or any other stocks you own which can have a longer term impact on their value than a temporary market crash. And I think oil price has proven to be such a threat for the mining stocks in the past. And it's why I think having some exposure to those oil stocks makes sense as a hedge to mining stocks. And for


those of you who are interested, I've even provided some of the topline data for Exxon Mobile here on the screen, which again is a stock that I own through an ETF along with value comparisons versus its peers, which you can get from the investing pro tool from investing.com that I think is extremely useful for anybody considering this as a hedge to their mining stocks. And in addition to that, anyone who's already signed up for the investing pro tool, and I know that it's a lot of you out


there, or maybe you're considering signing up for it today since the price is so good, they also have an interesting energy elite portfolio that I want to bring your attention to. And it's in the prop pick section with some very interesting energy related options that are lowrisk but pay fantastic dividends. So for anyone who thinks the market is just overvalued right now and I think the market is overvalued right now and that good deals apart from metals and mining stocks are just too hard to find. I think diversifying in


this direction into some of these energy stocks could be very helpful as I've done it myself. And the investing pro tool of course can be very useful in doing it the right way while also securing yourself the tools that you need to research mining stocks before you buy them instead of just taking for example a YouTuber's word for it. So as we finish I just want to thank investing pro from investing.com for making this video possible. It is a powerful platform that I really use and recommend. And if you could please click


on my link below, which is in the video description and pinned comment, and watch the short video demonstration of some of the things you get when you sign up for it. Even if you don't want to buy it yet, it really helps me a lot and can lead to future bonus videos sponsored by Investing Pro, which again is a great product. So, please click the link and if you want to sign up because you want to increase your confidence when investing in mining stocks or take a bite off of the oil stocks, please


consider signing up now and take advantage of the 60% off deal plus the extra 15% off you get when you use my link. And as we wrap up this video, I want to thank everybody for making it to the end of this video. Please remember to leave me some feedback in the comments section below to let me know what you think of these midweek videos and if you'd like to see more of them. Also, if you enjoyed it, leave a like as that helps this content reach more people who may need to hear this message. And before I sign off, I just


want to wish all of my American viewers a very happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the long weekend with your families. And as I say at the end of all of my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. See you in the next video.