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 [Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. Oh, it's great to be here, Charlotte. Thanks for having me. Really good to be catching up with you. I was checking back and I think our last interview was all the way back in December. So, so much has happened since then for us to go through. Of course, we're going to start over with gold. So, gold has been

having a record run in 2025, consistently setting new all-time highs. Although, of course, as we're saying before we turn the camera on, today's a little bit of a down day for gold. But I thought to start just by asking you, what are the charts telling you about what's next for gold at this point? Yeah, and gold has been very bullish all year, and now it's finally getting what I would classify as a very normal pullback. So, I don't think anyone needs to freak out about the pullback in gold.

In fact, the chart, if we turn to the chart here, what's amazing about this is that it occurred right at what we would call in the technical world at the high of a parallel channel. And so, just to show you guys this, and this is how actually I actually, so I'm a huge bull longer term, but I actually shorted gold with uh members here because it was telling us that it was going to pull back. And the way I found this is very simply by connecting the low here and the low here and essentially taking a

parallel, right? So, here's that trend line and we drag a parallel line right up to the highs from 2011. This is the bull market high. And if we look right here, where did gold stop on a dime? Right there at that high. And then if we flip back to the daily chart, we can see this candle here, which is that same high piercing that parallel channel. That's what we call a topping tail. And topping tails in technical analysis are reversal bearish signals. So short-term, that was the sell signal. It came down

bare flagged and now we're rolling over. Now again, as I said, I'm mid to long-term a bull. Even if I'm short-term, a little bearish. Um the key here is if it just gets back into this area here around 3140, you also have an ups sloping trend line right below that. And what you can see is this trend line and this trend line are merging right around 3100, 3140. That to me is where the bulls start or should start to reemerge. and price should start heading back higher. Okay, I think that gives us some good

context and always good to hear about the long-term picture and how we shouldn't necessarily worry about what's happening on on a day-to-day basis. So, that's what's happening with gold right now. I was going to ask about what your longerterm upside price target is looking like for gold. I think previously when we had talked, we were speaking about the 2900 to 3,000 level, which of course we have we've blown past that at this point. That's right. That's right. So, so to find a longer term

target, I think I think what you have to do is you have to start saying, okay, you know, what was the general move percentage-wise in previous bull markets, right? So, so if we just erase all of these lines here and really start from let's look at our bull market that kind of bottom the bearish portion bottomed out in the early 2000s and then we obviously had about a 10-year bull market run. And so what we can do there is say okay well the low was down here and all in all it was about a 660% bull run. And then if we go back to

let's say we go back to the bull run from the lows in 76 1976 and we go all the way up to the bull market high that was about a 750% run. So it looks to me like maybe percentage-wise, you know, here you have 750, 660, it looks like about 100% less maybe on the future side of things. So what we would then do, and again, this is just one way, right? So I want to be clear, it doesn't mean this is going to be the answer, but if we're really looking for that, you know, potential upside on the charts, we actually could

go up and do, let's say instead of 660, we do 550. And that would take us up to about a 6,000 a f $7,000 price target give or take. So again, you know, this is just one way to do it where I'm saying, okay, well, historically, you know, the bull run of the 70s into the 80s was 750%, 660, 550ish, 560. So it's about 100% less each time. But that gives us at least some basis to um kind of figure out a potential upside price target. And again, I don't know when this will hit, right? Is it in the next uh year? Is it

in the next 5 years? But in general, what we know is that you have, you know, 76 low to the high of 80 81. So that's about a 5-year bull run. This one was a little longer. It was about a 10-year. But let's just say again if we go back to 2016ish or 2017 right here, this could take us to 2026 to 2027, which based on the trajectory of how fast we're climbing, it does mean that, you know, in two years from now, we could easily be at, you know, $67,000 per ounce. I think that's really good context on what

could be coming for gold. And I know that you're constantly re-evaluating and of course we are in kind of unprecedented circumstances right now. So timing is is definitely a little tricky. I can tell that. I wanted to also ask you about the gold stocks. If we can look at what the gold stocks are doing as a group. I know from what I'm hearing elsewhere that when they're doing their earnings, we're finally starting to see that really high gold price reflected there. But again, curious to see what what is playing out

in the charts. Yeah. So the miners, you know, even though they've had some great catch up historically, if we zoom out on the GDX, you can see, I mean, yeah, we we're at a high since 2020, but if we go to a bigger time frame, I mean, you were much higher in 2011 when gold price was a lot lower. Now, that's not, you know, it's not perfectly apples to apples because inflation is obviously a lot higher, meaning the input costs to mine are a lot higher. it's taking away from their profitability. But in the very

least, the GDX eventually should at least get up to that double top on the GDX, the gold miners ETF, which is around 67. And so, you know, that's your kind of longer term, let's say 6 to 12 month price target that I have. On the shorter term, there was actually this beautiful sell signal that coexisted with gold when it topped. You can see this area right here connecting these highs. And then look at where we stopped on a dime right there. And then just like with gold, I'm looking for a

pullback. There should be support here. And then if it does break here, this would be other support. But for me at least, I'm going to look to start to buy small right around this 46 level on the GDX. And then I'll add more at around 42, this other trend line. And again, I think it's important to understand is that, you know, many people are emotional in terms of their investing. Everything I do is based off discipline, which is logic based, databased, and chart analysis based. And so it really

takes out that like, oh my gosh, I love gold or oh my gosh, the government's spending so much money or the Fed's doing this. It's like, well, wait, let's see what the charts are telling us and they'll guide us to the short-term and long-term most probable outcome. Yeah. Yeah. Certainly, there is quite a bit of emotion in what people do often. So, good to look at it from your perspective. So that's gold stocks and I know there had been some frustration surrounding the gold stocks last year

and that's maybe improving at this point but where I still see frustration playing out is with silver. People were looking at the silver price and thinking okay so I've heard that silver should catch up to gold when gold is running. So what's going on? Curious to get your your thoughts on what's happening there and when we might see that that breakout for silver. Yeah and silver has been tricky. I mean, you know, people are watching silver fans are watching gold and gold is just ripping to new all-time

highs and needless to say, silver is not even close to an all-time high at this point, trading just above $32 per ounce. Couple things on silver that are interesting here in the short term. We can see there was this downs sloping trend line. We broke above it. We kind of hammered, we bounced again, we broke through it, and then we reestablished ourselves back above it and then have kind of held this level. So, as long as this line holds, I think you remain slightly bullish on it. Um, and that if

this line breaks, you honestly are probably going back down to these lows. And I think the tricky thing is that that over time, silver has become more and more of an industrial metal. And with that comes cyclical aspects of the economy, right? And so, China's been in a big recession, you know, really for the last few years. We just saw negative GDP growth in the US economy. And all of these factors are making it harder for silver to make that run. Now eventually I think all commodities are going to go

higher. Um at least the metals uh palladium, platinum, and all those included. But I think again those it will take time for the US to get into a little bit of a recession like I think we're going. And then once it looks like we're going to emerge, I think that's where silver starts to take off to the upside. Yeah, I think this is a recurring theme that I'm hearing is is silver is its time will come, but the time is not right now. So, good to take a look at silver as well. We'll leave

the precious metals behind right now. I wanted to take a look at what's going on more broadly. I think last time we talked, we spoke briefly about how it might be to invest under Trump. And of course, we couldn't say very much at that time. I just read a headline earlier this week that his first 100 days in office were the worst for the stock market since Nixon. So curious to get your take on on what we're seeing play out there and how the stock market is looking. Yeah. So so I think the take

is that you know number one he came in when the markets were at all-time highs and ridiculous valuations. Um so I think you know you had to expect that there was a chance of a pullback. I also think when he was elected, everyone or at least investors were very optimistic that he was going to be a great friend to the stock market like he was in the first term where it's called a Trump put where you know if the market goes down he does something positive to push it back up. He hasn't really fully been

like that and I think the disappointment in that is what's brought the markets back down. In addition, he hasn't done himself any favors either. Right? So you have the tariff trade wars going on. I mean all of these things we're just coming out of this period of of high inflation and here he is you know putting 145% tariffs on China which is you know we all go buy stuff in the stores guaranteed at least one or two of the things we're buying is from China right so so that is inflationary um it's

also inflationary into a potential slowing economy so maybe stagflationary um and I think all of those concerns with the lack of a Trump put is really bringing the markets in now listen it could all be corrected later on. I'm not as optimistic. I think that again the trade wars will eventually work themselves out as the market goes lower, but I'm worried that we've been inflated for so long based on government spending and the Federal Reserve and the easy money policies that it was just waiting.

The markets and investors and consumers were just waiting to be pushed off the cliff. And now once you're off, you can't get back on. You know, you're falling at that point. And so I'm a little concerned about the next few years in the stock market. I even think there could be a period where we don't see new all-time highs on the stock market for like a decade, like after the dot era. Yeah. Let's talk a little bit more about what's happening with the trade war. I know that you're really all

about tuning out the noise and maybe not paying such close attention to all of those those chaotic elements, but so you mentioned you see it maybe deescalating. Can you talk a little bit more about how you potentially see it playing out? Yeah. So, the deescalation is is I don't think it's something that that Trump necessarily wants to do, but I think he will be eventually forced to do just like what we saw when when he imposed on liberation day those big tariffs on on many many countries including China,

right? So, China's tariffs stayed as high as they were. But when the stock market collapsed and we saw and this was really important, the 10-year yield instead of going lower, which usually happens when when fear comes into the market because people run to treasuries for protection and that causes yields to go lower, yields popped up and the dollar collapsed, which is also inverse to what you would expect. And that really forced his hand and said, "Holy cow, the bond market could be at the

edge of an epic disaster." and he had to back off on a lot of the tariffs on the other country, bringing those back to I think 10% or whatever they are now. Um my guess is over time as the economy slows the tariffs will be a contributing factor that he will have to back off on or at least reach deals with more quickly with these other countries so that the economy can kind of get back to normalization a little bit. Right? So, we saw Trump get a little bit spooked by what was happening in the bond market

perhaps and and do that change on the tariffs. Is the bond market safe at this point? Is it back to normal? How are you feeling about that? Yeah, it's kind of interesting on the bond market. We can take a look at the 10-year yield here. And the 10-year yield, it's not back to normal just yet. And the reason I say that is because this when when people were panicking uh when the stock market was collapsing, yields actually shot higher and they broke out above this downs sloping trend line. And then while

things have calmed down in the market, notice how this trend line, which means that we've still technically broken out on the yield, it's still up. And to me, that tells me that as long as that trend line holds, yields actually could start to go higher. Right? So generally when you have an up move in a market, you get the the bull flag consolidation. So that's this and this and then your next move is to break up even higher. And so I think we have to just be very careful here. We're kind of on this uh on this

edge, if you will, within the bond market that if things don't really get back to normal, the bond market could see another leg higher. Or I shouldn't say the bond market, the yields could see another leg higher. And that could be really problematic for the US. And let's be clear, what's going on here is that when yield started to go up, it was a lot of countries saying, "Hey, listen. You guys are tariffing us. You're you're basically, you know, telling us to go screw ourselves, if you will, right?"

And that made them not want to buy US debt. And as much as we think we're the all powerful US, we do rely on other countries to fund us basically with our debt and buying treasuries. And so if the other countries just stop or if China and Japan start dumping treasuries on the open market, they literally can cause a spike in yields that can be really detrimental to the US. Yeah. So there are there are consequences to those trade war actions. And I'll ask you the same question about the US

dollar which you mentioned was also behaving not as you would expect. What is your outlook for the US dollar in 2025 and especially under Trump? Yeah, so I think the US dollar is going to go a lot lower. uh we're in a short-term period where it's bouncing. If we look at the chart here, you can see this beautiful longerterm trend line, right? So, when you break a trend line, the normal thing is to continue flushing and then what you see is usually a retest of that line, but from the other side. So,

over here it was support, support, and support. And then we came up here, we hit it, we got a small bounce, and we broke down. Once you break down, people get all thinking it's a bullish move again when we're rallying back. But what it really is, it's testing what I call the retrace to the scene of the crime, the breakdown line. And what that happens is usually it gets rejected. Now this becomes resistance. It was support over here and prior. Now it's resistance and you'll usually see a move to the

downside. So this implies that we could in the short term see the dollar rally a little bit higher, but eventually you would anticipate a move down on the dollar and actually new new short-term lows be seen. Okay. And I'll take you back to your forecast for the US economy overall. So we've talked quite a bit in the past about whether a recession is coming. There's a lot of questions about that, but you mentioned earlier in this conversation stagflation concerns, and that's definitely a word I'm hearing

come up more and more. So how likely at this point do you think the stagflation scenario is? Yeah, I think if tariffs remain for a longer time, then I think it's very likely. And this is going to be one of those weird dances because essentially ahead of these tariffs, a lot of companies bought a ton of extra inventory because they knew the tariffs were coming. And so we have a lag of where these price increases won't hit for probably 3 months. But if the tariffs are not adjusted or lifted

within 3 months, then you'll see that those bigger price hikes start hitting the economy. And that's where again you'll start to see we obviously see a negative GDP number um in the first 3 months of the year. You have to assume with the tariffs and the fear that we'll see another negative number. So that means recession. And then if we do not have a remedy for the tariffs war and the trade wars in 3 months from now, you should start to see a pop in inflation. And I think that's where you basically

have this window of 3 months or 3 months from liberation day to get a deal done to avoid the spike in inflation. Otherwise, we we will see we uh stagflation. Okay. And of course, we have to talk about next steps from the Fed. We've got the next meeting coming up. We've had these clashes between Trump and Powell. They've got different ideas about what should be happening with interest rates. What do you think happens at that next meeting, and we can talk about beyond that as well if you like? Yeah. So, I I

think in the next meeting, which is on May 7th, I I don't expect a rate cut. um uh especially, you know, yes, we're starting to see the labor market weaken and these other things, but considering Trump has attacked Powell, he can't lower rates even if he wanted to at this next meeting just because again, it would look too shady like he's bowing to Trump. And I think they the Federal Reserve, one of the key things is it has to remain at least be viewed as being super independent to keep the fiscal

strength of the US. Uh having said that, the Fed funds watch tool is predicting a cut in June and I do think that the economy is slowing fast enough where we probably will see that cut in June. So the question is is it a 50 basis point or 25? Right now my guess is 25 because we still won't know if the trade wars have the trade war has been remedied, if it's been kind of taken care of um with the tariffs. And obviously, if the tariffs remain, then the Fed's going to have to worry about is inflation caused

by tariffs transitory, meaning a one-time price hike, or is it going to be something that's going to continue for longer periods, and they'll have to be a little bit more conservative. But if somehow you get the trade wars to to essentially be done with and the tariffs essentially removed, then I think the Fed would be much freer to lower rates quicker. Okay. I think that gives us a pretty good look at the overall picture of what's going on. So, I'll take you over to Bitcoin as well. So, I know that

it's down from its all-time highs, but it's still up pretty significantly from where it was a year ago. So, let's get your out updated Bitcoin outlook for 2025. Yeah. So, Bitcoin is actually having a nice little uptick today. So, that's nice to see. It's piercing this resistance line. And again, this resistance line is a parallel with the highs from earlier this year. And you can see all of these lows. So over here, this was support on Bitcoin that it broke, retraced, it became resistance.

This is kind of what we're talking about with the dollar retracing to the scene of the crime, then getting rejected. And here it is attacking it, potentially breaking back above it. If it can break above this, then we actually could see a move back up, possibly as high as 112,000. So that would be kind of that same trend line connector up here. You would just be going back to resistance. Now, my big fear is, and and this has been kind of the debate, is was Bitcoin ignoring the market fall and becoming a

safe haven asset, or is it just was it a pre a leading indicator for a stock market bounce like we've seen? I'm still unsure about that. One thing I do know is the stock market's rallying today and Bitcoin's up, right? So, so again, there is an element of risk on with Bitcoin. And if that's the case and we do see another leg lower in the stock market, like I think, then I do think eventually Bitcoin comes back in. Um, but you know, again, I'm still a huge long-term believer in Bitcoin that it is the the

the digital gold. It's just a matter of has it matured into that yet? I don't think it has. So, I would think that we get better buying opportunities at some point later this year on Bitcoin. All right. And I'm interested to hear what you think about Trump's potential impact on the cryptocurrency space as a whole because he's got a a more positive attitude, I would say, that I would think could be helpful. But then he also has his his meme coin going on which could potentially be harmful I would

think. So what do you think his overall impact will end up being? Yeah. So I I know the crypto market and crypto investors were so excited because he's he's much more crypto friendly. I'm I'm a a cynic in that you know I believe that politicians try to get votes. Um and being a friend to the crypto space was definitely a way to do that. And then he launched his memecoin his his Trump coin right at the height of it. I mean, that thing went up and you know, you you see literally accounts getting

Trumpcoin put in and then they're unloading, which again is probably his buddies or whatever it is. And and listen, it is what it is. You know, more power to him if it's legal and everything like that to make a ton of money. But I'm I'm a believer that he's a politician. He's doing things for votes. I don't personally think he cares that much uh about the crypto markets other than just doing what's popular to the crypto investors to get those votes. And again, that's my bigger concern is

that, you know, he he was able to do things that made him a lot of money in the crypto market, like his coin. The question is, do we see long-term action and continuation of positive reforms in the crypto markets, you know, now that we're past that inauguration in the first 100 days? I think that's a very very fair way to look at it. So, we'll we'll keep an eye on what he's doing with cryptocurrencies and see where it goes. Before I let you go, I'll I'll ask you, are there any other areas you're

interested in right now? I know a lot of people are looking for safety right now, but they also might be interested to hear other other trades that you are finding interesting. Yeah. So, so for me, I've been mainly looking more towards um safe haven investments um in the stock market. So, for instance, Fizer. Fizer's been on my radar, pays a 7 and a half% dividend yield. It's low on the chart, you know, basically at multi-year lows. you know, those type of names that are trading at seven, eight

forward PE ratios. That's really where I want to be hiding right now. Um because again, number one, it pays me if it's going to pay me 7 and a half or 7% per year. Even if it goes down 7%, I'm at least break even. And if it goes up, it's even a better bonus, right? And again, it's at the low end versus a lot of these stocks are still very close to their 52- week or all-time highs. So tech stocks, I'm still very nervous about those. I think if we do hit a recession, those will have another major

nose dive. And then I am deploying some money in in outside the US investments. Uh EWZ, the Brazil ETF, I love that one. Um I think China, if we can figure out a a resolution to this trade war, you know, there's been so much money that has come to the US over the last 10 years. It's now starting to look for other homes. There's a lot of lower or more inexpensive investments in foreign countries, and I think that's the next bull market. Okay. Really good places for us to examine as well. and and see

if they'll work for us. Any final words that you would leave investors with? I know it's a very tricky and volatile time right now. Yeah, so stock market, I think the S&Ps bounced 14% off of its April 7th lows. Just keep in mind that in 2008, 2009, the great financial crisis. We had 10, I think it was 12 bounces of at least 10% during the financial crisis. So bare market rallies can seem like new bull markets but be very wary. In the.com era um of 2000 when the dot collapse occurred we had uh

10 bounces of 14% in the market as well. So again I I guess the point is is don't get necessarily fooled. Um look at the data look at the charts and for me the charts are saying be very careful. This is probably a bounce before another leg lower. Okay very good advice. It's easy to get excited when you see those things, but to have the context there is really important. So, thank you so much for coming on to go over what's happening in gold, silver, the markets. This is really invaluable as as always.

Oh, thank you so much, Charlotte. You have a great one. Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Gareth Soloway with verified.com. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below. [Music]