[Music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with the Investing News Network and here today with me is Jeff Clark, metals and mining analyst at the goldfor.com. He's also the author of the book Pay Dirt. Just a reminder before we get started that if you enjoy this interview, make sure you subscribe to our channel. Jeff, thank you so much for joining me today. It's great to see you. It's great to be back with you, Charlotte. I always enjoy our interviews. So, lots we can talk about now, huh? It is a great time to be speaking with


you. I'm really excited. We've got a lot of topics to go into today. But before we get too deep into those, I want to ask you about the onetoone event that you were just at in Las Vegas. I'm curious to know about sentiment, any topics that you saw that stood out to you there. Um yes, so I attended the one to one uh conference. Um it's onetoone meaning onetoone meetings. That's the idea behind the title. Um it was in Vegas. Um this conference is a little different than like your normal retail conference


where you have a lot of companies that are have booths and you can walk around and talk to them, that kind of thing. Um here there are boosts but it's primarily one-to-one meetings. Um there were some talks I gave a talk um I think it will be out on video actually. Um but it's basically onetoone meetings. Uh what I'll say about this event first is that it was not well attended. Um the attendance was low. Um but uh with this kind of conference you have people walking around with million-dollar


checkbooks you know to maybe invest in a company. So you don't necessarily need a thousand people there, right? So uh for me it was actually very productive though because I could have onetoone meetings um and it's just you and the company and so you can uh be blunt and ask them questions you know hey you said the feasibility study would be done by now why isn't it? You know so um it's it's it's a good event to to really dig in with a company. Um uh a lot of companies for me were you know I'm


always on the hunt for new companies right uh but I met with some existing companies in the portfolio got some great updates uh a lot of companies I met with though were nos uh some were maybe and there were a couple surprises of companies that I liked I wasn't really aware fully of the story and how compelling it may be so we'll see if a couple of those might get added to the site but but it's a great conference I love it. I love meeting industry colleagues and it was very productive.


So, okay. Well, thank you for sharing about that. It sounds like it was quality over quantity, which sometimes is the right way to go. Exactly. So, we, as I said, we've got so much to talk about today. And where I think we should begin is with gold. So, we see gold getting pretty comfortable above that 2,000 per ounce level. Knock on wood, I think it's around 2020 right now as we speak. There's a lot of things going on right now. So I wondered if you could explain to us what you see as the


most important factors for gold at the moment. You know, I presented a chart at that conference that showed the gold price from uh last year all the way to present and the upswings and the downswings and I labeled what the cause was for each of those. And uh a lot of it, you know, right or wrong, good or bad, was related to the Fed. The Fed is hawkish. Oh, all of a sudden they're doubbish. Oh no, we're going to do another big raise that you know so the gold price was reacting a lot to that which in turn affected the


US dollar. So if the US dollar was sharply rising, gold was down and vice versa. And then at the beginning of you know uh what last month we had the SVB crisis or closure whatever and the gold price spiked. It responded to that over versus anything else. So, what's kind of neat about the gold price is it's it it is really a crisis protector. It really is insurance. You know, it's going to protect you against um events that are uh that are negative and and uh blow up or become a crisis or whatever the case


may be. It's not just an inflation head that sometimes the mainstream will label it as. Um it really is insurance. And so, and it's demonstrated that. So now that it's above 2,000, the question is, does it stay there? So I think there could be one more little down leg, maybe test 2,000, maybe temporarily drop below that, whatever. Um, but what it looks like, and I'm not a technical analyst, but what it looks like is that $2,000 may be the floor now, right? And I think a new um all-time high is in the works.


Um, who knows, within the next month or so. Um, but I'm really curious to see if 2000 is really the floor. Either way, in in both the short term and the long term, the Fed in the short term, that's the short-term um uh catalyst is the Fed turning dovish going a Fed pivot. I think we mentioned in our last interview that, you know, the average time from the last Fed rate hike to the first Fed rate cut is only five months. five months on average since the 1950s. That's really unbelievable. So, let's


say they raise one or two more times, they pause in the summer, they could actually be lowering rates by the end of the year. That's a crazy thought, but that it would be very bullish for gold. That's a fullfed pivot. Uh them becoming doubbish. Uh and then there's also the issue of are they going to what are they going to do about the debt? What are they going to do about the deficit? what are they going to do about um the interest payments that have been screaming higher? Um those are all


short-term catalyst. Um money printing, you know, currency printing would be another one. Uh but in the big picture, you know, it's really um you have to own gold under the current monetary system. That's how I feel about it. until that changes and becomes more stable and more honest and you're not just printing money and adding to debt and playing with rates and that sort of thing. When it becomes a more honest system, hey, maybe the need to own gold isn't as great then. But until then, I mean, I I


own gold and I bought I disclosed this on Twitter. I bought three more ounces of gold on the day SVP bank uh thing blew up because I thought, you know, here it comes. this, you know, this could be the beginning of the next real not just uplegging gold, but the the real crisis event that, you know, demands that we own gold. So, I kind of went off on you there and lots of topics, but I don't know if I answered your question, but I think you did answer the question and you've left us with quite a few threads


to go down, so we'll try to remember all of them in my head and follow each one of them. First, let's let's stick with the Fed for a little bit because people are watching that very closely. Feels like we just finished the last meeting. Everybody's already now looking forward to the next meeting in May. And you talked a little bit about what we can expect. I wonder what happens to inflation. Every time you tell us about that statistic about the five months between hiking and cutting, that's


always so surprising to me and very interesting. What happens to inflation as the Fed decides what to do next? You know, for me, um, how I've looked at this issue is not just rising prices or lowering prices, but the supply chain. The supply chain has really been a big part of the cause for uh the inflation we had. So whether some prices are rising and some are falling and consumer prices are falling, service prices are rising still or at least not falling. So, you know, for me it's until the


supply chain is fully resolved. And then the other issue is um uh labor rates uh and not not labor rates but um wages I'm sorry. So if wages are still going up that to many analysts is one indicator that inflation is not going to come down. So that's one other thing key thing I think to watch is in general what are wages doing in the US where are they doing in Canada whatever country you live in. So uh those are things to watch. Um the other thing from history is that we know when inflation has been


very high that bringing it down is a very difficult and takes time, right? And b what not many people are talking about is that there you there usually is another spike up um when you're trying to bring it down. So it would not be surprising at all based on history for us to see another spike in inflation at some point. I'm not saying next month. I'm just saying at some point you could see that. Again, that's what the historical record shows. So, uh, you sure they could bring it down, but it's


not just about inflation for gold. Exactly. And another angle that you mentioned that I definitely want to pursue is what's going on with the banks. So, banking crisis in the US and elsewhere. This was making a lot of headlines a couple of weeks ago. already it feels to me like it's it's kind of fading away which is very interesting. So what do you see as the path forward there? Because I can't believe that we've seen the end of this. Yeah, it's very interesting. Is the contagion going to spread or or is it


contained now? Um there are a lot of banks that are still at risk. Um what was amazing to me is the Fed stepping in and saying they're going to, you know, back at any level at the FDIC insurance, you know, any any level uh that's needed. So, um they're clearly going to try to do whatever they can to uh not let this spread and blow up. Um but there's consequences. is, you know, there's no free lunch there that, you know, if you're going to just print print money to to cover all that. Well,


you know, that's not free. You have to pay that cost at some point, you know, whether it's adding to the debt or the interest payments or whatever the case may be. So, um I I I don't think it's fully resolved. Um but for me, to be honest, Charlotte, it doesn't really matter if it's fully resolved or not. Um, I just glad I own gold in case it's not, but I'm glad I own gold and and it is. And there's something else coming. You know, I think this crisis could spread. You know, it's the old uh a


butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil and all of a sudden a bank blows up in uh the US. So, there's a chain event. There's a ripple event to all of this. So, it's not really knowable yet. I don't think that this thing is fully resolved. Um, so, uh, you know, it makes me nervous to think about, but it sure makes me glad I own gold, right? And I want to ask you about owning gold as well, because definitely that's something I've been hearing right now from so many people. They're happy


to own gold at this point in time. However, gold is at pretty high levels. We're close to the all-time high as we've been talking about. And people are generally told, you know, you shouldn't buy at such high levels. But a lot of people are telling me that they they are buying right now and that's because of what they see coming in the future. So could you weigh in on that and where you think why you think it's all right to buy at this time? What if $2,000 gold is low? What if gold's going to 2500? What if


it's going to 3,000? Um those those levels are definitely possible this year. I could easily see it going to 2500. Uh so the current price would be low. So, uh, but again, it's it's you're not buying it as an investment just hoping it goes up. Uh, we do, of course, but you're buying it as insurance, as protection, as portfolio protection. Again, I bought more gold. Um, even though I own a fair amount, I felt comfortable with the amount I own, but I I felt like I needed more uh because I


wondered if this was really the beginning of the big the big event, the big crisis event, you know, around the world. There's so many potential catalysts for gold right right now. It's it's kind of crazy, but um so uh am I answering your question? Um I'm not sure. Yes, you are answering the question. And I keep asking this because I think it's I think it's easy for people to get confused and think, well, you know, I was told not to buy when it's high, but then you also have to keep in mind that


larger context. So, yes, I do think that was helpful. Yeah. The other thing is Charlotte, you know, gold um you know, you buy on down days. If you're buying, you want to buy on days that it's down. And gold actually has a lot lower premiums than silver, which we're going to talk about. But, uh the premiums are a lot lower, especially if you're buying bars. Um so, it's actually a pretty good time to buy in my opinion, especially if it dips below $2,000. Again, it may or may not.


Uh but the premiums on on gold are low. So, if you do the combination of of gold with lower premiums on days it's falling, I think you're going to get a a better deal. And of course, you can always buy in tanches, too. You know, buy whatever now, buy, you know, again, when it dips, you know, that kind of thing. That's interesting. Do you have a sense of why the premiums are low at the moment or lower than they could be? Well, they're always lower uh for gold than they are for silver. Um just


because uh it costs just as much to produce an ounce of gold as it does an ounce of silver. So with silver 25 and gold at 2,000, obviously the percentage of that cost is is going to be higher for silver. Um yeah, it's interesting because premiums just were very very stubborn. Uh a lot of that was, you know, COVID, uh the supply chain, that whole mixup there, uh which caused premiums for everything to be higher, but they've slowly come down for gold. So, uh it's not a bad time to buy gold


if you if you're buying on a down day. Uh they do have lower premiums, so you got to pounce what you can. If gold goes to $2,500, you can bet your bottom dollar that premiums will be higher than they are now. So, all right. And let's talk about the gold stocks as well and how they're performing during this time of quite a high gold price. I think if you look at GDX and GDXJ and you compare them right now to where they were when gold was at 2000 back in 2020, they are quite a ways off from those levels. So, what are you


seeing among the gold stocks? Yeah, the difference is is sediment. You know, sediment was people were excited back then. uh gold was making new highs. Uh the sentiment was very strong including from some institutional fund managers mainstream. You had a lot more excitement back then. Right now you have a lot of uh yeah but yeah we'll see you know that kind of attitude you know uh we've been here before. You know why isn't it breaking through higher? So I think um frankly when it makes new highs


and if it stays there and it's sustainable um I think that will draw a lot of people in from everywhere from technical analysts and momentum chasers to the mainstream and institutional fund managers because now it's at a sustained level. Um, so that will, uh, put more grain on the screen, if you will, for fund managers and Wall Street types looking at their screens and holy crow, look at these, uh, companies that are all of a sudden going to have, you know, uh, much higher earnings. Uh, when the


stock market is falling, that would be an interesting thing to see if they pick up on that. Uh, but I think it's I think it's sediment. Um I I think you know we need to see gold not just higher but sustainably higher. That will draw more investors in. Uh it'll uh draw more investors into the gold stocks because it'll make them more attractive because of margins. So even with higher inflation costs, we've already seen that affect the gold stocks. So that's kind of built in now. So, if inflation is


slowly easing down, uh, and you have a higher gold price, margins are going to expand for the producers and and that's going to make them more attractive. Okay, I think we've covered gold pretty well, but we should also make sure that we talk about silver, which made it above $25 per ounce this week. You told us previously, I think back in January when we talked that we might see silver at $30 or so this year and it's starting to feel a lot more attainable right now, but you know, still $5 away. So, is that


a quick move, do you think, from 25 to 30? How does it play out potentially? Um, yes, I do still think silver is going to go to $30 this year. Um, the reason is because once silver gets going, silver is very spiky. you know, it's very volatile. Um, it's almost violent sometimes in how much it rises or falls, you know. So, if you have a rise in gold, silver's going to outperform it. We've seen this just repeatedly throughout history. So, if gold does rise, silver's going to follow


it. And, you know, silver's DNA is, as I've said before, is boring, boring, boom. It it just does nothing. Even sometimes when gold is rising and then all of a sudden for reasons that we didn't maybe even think of that would cause it to rise, it goes on a run and spikes. So if we get a spike, it would be very easily attainable to for it to hit $30. I still think that'll happen. And that's what it is. You know, it it's it's it's going to follow gold and do what gold does. And um you know since


it's so spiky uh and so boring boring boom I think that's uh definitely uh something we should uh you know maybe not count on but I think that's very uh likely. All right. And one concept that you explained during a previous conversation as well is to get a silver price move you really need to see movement in demand for physical silver as well as the ETF side. So I wanted to check in with you on those two factors and see how they're looking at this moment. Yeah. So when silver ran up to 25 um


there was an increase in not just investment demand but ETF demand. Um for silver you're right the the issue is uh the the biggest um catalyst the re biggest reason that silver rises is when you have strong investment demand. Well, we had strong demand last year for physical for multiple years for physical, but what was lacking was the ETF investment demand. Um, and that did spike uh when silver ran to 25. I glanced at Sov and sure enough, the holdings were up during that run. So, that's what we need to see is investors


from all groups participating in that because that is the biggest driver for the silver price is investment demand. it industrial demand affects it of course that's more um you know supporting the price and it it'll cause the price to go higher over time especially if we get into some supply demand thing or Elon Musk announces he's buying a silver mine or something like that you know industrial demand is becoming greater definitely that's a trend in motion that's a barge in a port


trying to negotiate a three-point turnaround but in the meantime the price of silver can spike dramatically with investment demand like a little speedboat running around that barge. That's how the silver price reacts. That's kind of what it is. So, I think, you know, we could easily see that once investment demand really grows uh and we especially draw in the mainstream sediment changes a little bit. Gold's going on a run, silver could easily spike to 30, right? And just because you mentioned


it, I have to ask, you know, would Elon Musk really buy a silver miner? I don't think it's a crazy idea. I've heard people talk about it. What do you think? Yeah, it's fun to talk about. It's fun to think about. Um and I think it's it's probably likely at some point because we have seen some of these miners um uh uh not miners, some of these uh you know EV type companies and green companies uh go buy a mine to shore up their supply chain. What was interesting is at the


last conference and and I didn't attend it, but I I read the itinerary and some other people told me for the first time ever, we had a bunch of car makers at a mining event. They've never attended a mining event before in this number. The the numbers were incredible. Yet all major car name them. They were all there. There were three representatives from Tesla at this mining event just a month ago or maybe it was two months ago. So they're definitely thinking about this. They're definitely, you know, thinking about,


okay, how are we going to shore up supply of metals we need to actually build our batteries, right? So with uh Tesla had the most representatives at this event. So uh they're definitely thinking about it. Uh so whether it's Tesla or some other company and no matter you know whether it's this year or next year I think it's likely that we will see that because they're going to need to shore up supply because supplies are dropping and getting it you know closer to critical levels where hey we


we be able to have the supply we need 12 months from now. So we need to sh that shore that up. So it wouldn't be surprising to me at all. Very interesting and you're right, it is a fun line of thought to pursue. All right. So, another line of questioning that I want to go down is companies that you're looking at right now. If there are any catalysts that you would mention or we can also talk more broadly about the types of companies that you are interested in at the moment, whichever one of those you want


to look at. Um, yeah. So, if you see my logo in the background there, it's a prospector holding up a a gold coin. And that's kind of what my dad was. My dad was a gold prospector. So it kind of runs in the blood, right? So um and and I think a lot of people um and it happened to me as well. Once you get involved in the industry, you learn a little bit more. You kind of want to eat further down the food chain. You want to go down to the juniors and explorers because it's more exciting. It's more interesting. um


evaluating a producer is, you know, the mining industry is different than uh the S&P 500 stocks, right? But evaluating a producer is, you know, you look at certain metrics and valuation and earnings and all that and that can get a little boring for me. So, I like to eat a little further down the food chain and look at explorers. It's more interesting. You you got to be like a a detective almost, you know, and trying to decipher, okay, is it is this a real project? you know what about this guy's


background and and maybe this jurisdiction is is good after all, maybe it's not as good after all. You have to go through this process of evaluating it and I enjoy that. So, I do look more uh down at the juniors. Yeah. Do you have any final thoughts that you would share with our audience just on gold, silver, anything else that's on your mind at the moment? I I think this is the time you need you need to get long. I I don't think, you know, gold's not going back down to 1500. Silver's not going down back down


to 15. Uh the only way they would have a crash at this point is if all markets crashed, you know, like like we saw in the COVID crash. Everything crashed temporarily, right? That's the only thing that's really going to cause that. Uh if a recession comes, gold has done well in recessions. In fact, it's risen in every recession since the 1970s except two. And the only two times it declined were single digits. So I think this is the time you need to be long. You need to make sure you have your


insurance shored up. You know, just like you might uh increase your um life insurance policy from 100,000 to a million because now you have kids. Well, now is the time for gold and silver because of the events that are taking place, the vulnerabilities in the system, uh the crisis that we've seen, and the fact that we have an unsound, completely unound monetary system. This is the time to be long gold and silver. And I do recommend people uh favor owning physical gold over an ETF or something like that. You want to reduce


your counterparty risk. you know, if you had your gold stored in SVP SVP bank, uh, you know, you may not be very happy right now. So, reduce your counterparty risk by owning physical gold. And, um, you know, if gold and silver do well, this gold and silver stocks will do well. Um, even if the stock market is declining, uh, the number one factor that pushes uh, mining stocks up is the price of gold and silver. So if there if they're rising then mining stocks will as well. So this could be an exciting


time. There will be another bull market because gold and silver cycle like everything else. We've had a big down cycle. Uh the next cycle I think is imminent. All right. Important message to end on. Thank you so much for coming on to talk and to get us up to date on what's going on with gold and silver. Uh thank you for having me Charlotte. This was great. Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with the Investing News Network and this is Jeff Clark of the goldadvisor.com. [Music]