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  I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Joe Capatonyi, senior market strategist, America's at the World Gold Council. Thank you so much for being here. >> It's great to be here, Charlotte. Good to see you in Canada. >> Yes, in Canada in person. It's PDAC and we've made it to the third day. So I thought it's a good place to start if we can get any key takeaways on sentiment interesting items that you've heard at the show so far.

>> Sure. I think there's a significant amount of interest in trying to get an understanding of how the investment landscape and the central bank landscape are going to continue to be the drivers for the gold market. So understanding that gold on a global demand perspective is still holding water is giving most of the participants here at the event, you know, lots of questions. But in there as well are questions around what should we be expecting around how the price will perform? Volatility higher on average.

Um the pullbacks maybe a little bit more extreme. So lots to talk to and really good questions but enthusiasm around the outlook for gold for sure. >> Well and are you finding I the attendance we know is high. We don't have the exact numbers yet but I'm hearing from people who have been out on the show floor more than I have that there are newcomers here. Are you are you finding new people come to you with these questions? >> Well, if my ability to navigate the different floors and get down and up

those escalators gives me any indication, I think there's plenty of new people here. I've heard a number as high as almost 40,000 attending. And actually what I'm seeing for sure, which I haven't necessarily had as much interaction with in the past, are more of the investors >> here talking about like about what's playing out with the metals, what's playing out in the space, talking to us about what's going on in the gold market. And what the investors are trying to understand again is what's the

upside really looking like? You know, you've got a bunch of different calls on the price between now and the end of the year. All very favorable, very strong. But again, is there going to be the type of performance we expect from gold when you need it most? Is it going to be the safe haven? And is it going to continue to see the growth that we've been seeing so far? Record year last year and actually super performance so far, but lots that that could still develop. >> Yeah. And I remember I think either at

the beginning of this year, end of last year, we were talking about prices in 2026 and World Gold Council doesn't do price predictions, but you're telling me about estimates from large institutions and I think already some of those have been revised upwards. So what are your feelings on that? I I support the view that that most are trying to understand a dynamic that's kind of new to the gold market, which is what do you really and how do you really assess geopolitical tensions, the structural shift in terms

of trade dynamics and its impact on gold. So momentum's definitely been a factor that we're seeing pretty substantially in the gold market. That took us up to 30% of a gain in January and pulled us back that 20% that correction in January. we had a lot more of that momentum in the fall of 2025 as well. So we're trying to understand is that temporary momentum, is that just more speculation? And ultimately, is this just a new dynamic of gold in a volatile environment that should just be

expected because you have just more participants in the market and it's really quite a unique situation that's developed. the fundamentals of investment, a role in a portfolio, considering where the dollar value will be, where bond performances will be, diversification benefits, those are all holding firm. That's why we keep seeing our floors reach new levels. But again, how are we supposed to be unpacking this whole new dynamic of volatility and more participants in the market? >> Well, and I think that's important to

talk about the volatility angle. And I do remember we brought this up in a previous conversation but people do hear that gold is a safe haven is a stable asset in their portfolio and yet we are seeing these large moves. So what are your thoughts? How can we unpack that? So I think that people just need to accept the fact that maybe what we had seen historically with the volatility levels at around a 15% level and maybe where we are today at around a 28 to 30% level uh annualized those might be much

more likely to be what we should be expecting in an environment where conditions that move assets all assets risk assets safe haven assets are completely unpredictable and completely um radical in terms of some of the behaviors that come off the back of it. Just taking a look at what we've had develop over the course of the weekend in terms of the Middle East conflict that was being talked about, understood as the potential maybe being priced in, but then it became a reality over the weekend. So that means more momentum,

more volatility, more movement of money quicker. And again, gold's global. So it's not as if it's waiting for one little market to open. it's being used and expressed as an investment or a hedge or a speculative asset around Asia through the Middle East into the European markets and into the Americas. So, you've got to take all that into consideration. My my view, we should probably just be accepting of these higher levels of all and understand that you still see the same type of

performance from gold that when risk assets are really selling off, you might see a bit of a pull down on gold, but you're seeing the performance that you expect from it. Right. And the other point I wanted to pull out from what you said is how quickly things are moving. So in the past maybe events might have taken longer to play out and you wouldn't have seen all these dramatic spikes. So that seems to be playing a role as well here. >> Yeah, 100%. Like just all you know just to put it into context, we went from

3,000 to 4,000 4,000 to 5,000. Does anybody remember when we went to 4,000? We've kind of missed it and it's gone right now. But more specifically, the types of events, the types of political, trade related, geopolitical actions are pretty pretty hard to to gauge at this stage and they lead to repercussions that are economic, trade, logistics, but also just fundamentally looking at overall debt levels. the these are all under consideration all impacted because these are big moves that are pretty well

difficult to understand and predict. Now you do have some items on the horizon that you can prepare for and I think we do see those priced in. For example, there's an upcoming meeting between President G and President Trump and that's a big moment that could potentially develop to see how trade and political and and national relations are between the two countries. So that's on the horizon. But how do you price for that? What is the outcome from that meeting? What do we see as a result of

negotiations or trade negotiations or tariffs? Really challenging. Super challenging. So you have to accept that that means more vol more volatility more variance in the price. But at the heart again the economic conditions, debt levels being high, concerns around dollar weakness and strength, rate direction could ultimately be favorable for gold, which is why I think the analyst revisions upward with central banks still at the table, investors continuing to be at the table, we we we see those numbers as

being realistic and achievable. And just to follow up a little bit on tariffs and trade tensions, we've got this meeting coming up and of course tariffs were really in focus around this time last year and there was concern then about is gold going to be tariffed in some way and those seem to come off the table. Is that back on the table now? Are we still feeling secure that it will avoid that? So great question and a moving target and actually the current condition for gold is that it is likely

not to be impacted by even revisions to tariffs even after the Supreme Court's passed down his decision. So the Supreme Court clarified a year later for us what the conditions were around the president's uh expected authority over being able to implement AIPA tariffs and they've came they came with the the decision that he overstepped his authority but there are plans in place that the administration have to continue to go back and and look to recoup those tariff revenues which look to be

favorable for the US and I think that we are still looking very comfortable that we were given the clarity we needed to be pulled away from the concerns. But simply by being part of a group of metals, being part of a commodity bucket, we are potentially pulled in directions by organizations that are trading all of them. But specific to the tariff issue, it appears that we're fine for now. >> Okay. Well, something to to keep an eye on. So that's that's one bucket of uncertainty over there. And you've also

been mentioning what's happening in the Middle East. This is something that's unfolding right now. We're at March 3rd at the moment. So, we'll see. We'll see how it plays out. I think maybe what we can say at the moment, if we look back at how gold historically reacts in a time like this, what can you say? So unexpected or or quickmoving conflicts that develop like the one we've just seen, they tend to be very much reflected in a fastm moving a price appreciation in the gold market. But as

the market has an opportunity to assess it and determine exactly how it could potentially play out and resolve itself because there are often quick, clear, concise abilities to determine the outcome of these kind of conflicts. the market pulls back. Now, I think we're seeing a bit of that pullback. We were up to near record highs again this earlier part of the week, but we're now back about three and a half% today. And look, we're not surprised by that from the gold market. I guess to your point,

it's still not completely clear how this will clear up in the conflict, but it is not expected. they're not out of the norm for us to see the prices of gold come up and down like they have. Some of the other things that are actually worth paying attention to as well. So that's that's kind of talking the wholesale price on a global scale when you're talking about Shanghai, London, and and New York in terms of trading prices and so forth. But some of the more interesting dynamics to keep a close

watch on are the ability to move physical metals. You know, we've been looking at what's happening with the airspace in the region. It's actually been shut down. that impacts you know a supply of gold that does come from Dubai and the Middle East into the market. It's about 20% right of what comes into the market. So for temporary purposes it's on hold and flights are being impacted across the region as well. So markets like India are seeing a a a collapse of the discount that they had

for the local market for gold in India. So they will find other places to source gold as they need it in that market. But you can see a $50 discount collapse to zero. So price appreciation. So in the big macro scheme, we're seeing and expecting what we would want from gold in terms of a conflict. But in the more micro sense, you can still see there are pockets of areas to keep a close watch on. >> So potentially more supply dislocations there like we were seeing when we had >> tariffs before. We don't think this will

be close to tariffs or co but again when you remember those experiences you should understand that there's a an instance of this potentially developing. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So we'll we'll be following that I'm sure and I know you always emphasize to us that gold is global in nature and I wanted to talk a little bit more about how China is looking to boost its role in the gold industry. I'm hearing including taking steps to establish Hong Kong as a key hub. So I'm wondering if you can talk

about the significance of that for the gold market. >> So China is a major market for gold. It's a major source of supply for gold as one of the larger countries to produce gold. But it also is a large consumer of gold that we talk about that all the time whether it's in the jew jewelry form or the increasing form of investment through financial products or online consumption by insurance companies. uh or the central bank itself. So what they're looking to do and what they're thinking of

establishing is just what I think they're talking to in the public which is really a hub a more internationally oriented hub for vaulting trading price discovery in the region and I think it's actually a very interesting exercise. It's not an easy thing to achieve. You know they're asking about whether or not central bank reserves could be held in a in a location like Hong Kong. So, lots of questions around what and how people might perceive the development of the market in Hong Kong, but definitely an

interesting development and one to keep a close watch on. So, it could be interesting just increasing the overall price discovery capabilities in the region, >> right? And good point. It it takes time. I guess you can't just say it's a hub now. And yeah, takes some time, >> right? I mean, you you you already have Hong Kong as a hub. There's a large jewelry component there. There's there's refining capabilities there. there's large consumption on the investment

side, but similarly, you're getting the same kind of messaging out of Singapore. They're asking about the art of the possible when it comes to vaulting and holding reserves for central banks in the region as well. So, I think the interest in growing the ability and the capacity to hold gold, it's actually on everyone's minds. You know, even in the US, they're actually putting vaults and and promoting the, you know, the storage of gold in the US. you know, there's across the country across the country,

whether it's in Texas or with the Wyoming Reserve in in Wyoming, there are organizations that are actually out there saying, "Hey, look, we've got a facility . We want a vault. We can hold your gold." >> Yeah, it's pretty interesting. So, I'm sure we'll talk more about that. Yeah. >> The other thing I wanted to bring up, so last time we talked, we were talking about the latest gold demand trends report. >> And a point that I thought of after the fact was to bring up Tether to use. So

they've got their gold stable coin and aside from that, they've become a significant buyer of gold. Yes. So what do those purchases and that activity tell us about the gold market right now? >> Well, I think it just continues to amplify the gold global message and I also think the interest by lots of innovative companies to get involved in the space. I think it's pretty exciting. >> Yeah. Now, the token that they have, let's call it about a $2.5 billion AUM, and that's actually been a good result,

but it hasn't seen the substantial growth that you might have seen in ETFs or in other forms of investment, but it hasn't folded when many attempts at putting tokens in place have. So, I think that that's actually a really encouraging kind of sign that they're willing to keep it going and willing to get out there and find demand for it and put it in place. And there are other tokens that are existing as well that are still also in early stages but also sticking in place and actually making a

bit of an impact. Pax G is another example. DGLD in Europe is another example. So you've got an interesting little dynamic there, but it's not the biggest piece that I think Tether's engaged in. >> Yeah, >> they use gold behind their stable coin, which is a much bigger piece of their business today. That's a much more successful adoption rate in terms of getting it into the hands of others, which is interesting because if the stable coin environment were to accept their form of token into the US, it

wouldn't be eligible to be a part of the underlying that's in go in in stable coins in the US. So I think they need to do some work to get that working in the US. But then again, on top of that, I think they have aspirations to be just a major player in the gold market itself. So, you got to keep those three buckets in mind because the large numbers you might hear in the media about what they're holding aren't necessarily just linked to their token. It's linked to not only their token, but their stable

coin and their own holdings because they see a market for uh financing, trading, facilitating institutions and organizations that want to get involved in lots of the capital markets activities around the gold market itself. >> Yeah. Yeah. You explain it much better than I could, those different buckets there. >> Yeah. But it's it's very interesting. I think people saw all those headlines about how they hold as much gold as some central banks. So is this this is this >> so do some of the ETFs though.

[laughter] >> Okay. So, it's all it's a little bit of an >> but no, but all joking aside, I think it's actually an interesting point and and I think it speaks volumes about the fact that you have a tech company, an innovative company who sees an opportunity not not to come back at the gold market in the traditional fashion of saying we're we're a token or a Bitcoin issuer and and we're going to say we're better or different or the new version. This is somebody that's

embracing gold and saying it can live in the world of technology. And actually, the work we're doing, >> yeah, >> is actually pretty exciting as well. We've got work underway around the wholesale digital token side of the business, really opening up gold so that it can be much more efficient in trading and use as collateral and and working with an ecosystem of firms to really bring that to market with our pulled gold interest. >> Yeah. >> Which really talks to saying, hey, look,

I want all the benefits of unallocated gold, but I want all the protections of allocated gold. And that pulled gold interest new construct is probably the most exciting thing that we've been working on from a technical perspective because that's really introducing like like I said a new mechanism for people to actually utilize capital markets behaviors and gold in the middle of all of that. Collateral is a key element for example. >> Yeah. Yeah. Not to sideline what you're doing but I I did wonder with all of

this going on you have your own digital gold initiatives going on. So I Yeah. I was just wondering how how you saw that. So this is what's actually really exciting is that it's not just a race to bring a token and I think five or maybe even longer years back you know we had a lot of energy around tokenizing gold tokenizing and and everyone would ask us are you going to tokenize gold and the question is is a good one and the answer is is that the need that the market has right now and it wasn't five years ago

and it probably still isn't today. We like the idea of the tokens being there, but we see bigger opportunity as an organization ourselves to work to keep getting the industry and the ecosystem in a better trading condition so that we have really no questions around the liquidity of gold, the access to capital markets, activities in gold and more participants coming in to trade it. So what we don't want to have is to wait for someone to be approved as an eligible, you know, LPMCL member or a

bullion bank in an official capacity. If if a firm wants to trade gold, we want them involved and that's what we're trying to get. More participation, better liquidity, and even better global, you know, ability to access the market. >> Yeah. No, it makes sense. So, thank you for going into that. And I think we're we're getting close to the end here. I'll send you back out onto the show floor, but anything else that's on your mind right now when it comes to gold that you think investors should hone in

on? >> I think you just keep a close watch on some of the big known dates that are coming up over the next, let's call it, nine months. So you should expect those higher levels of volatility, but investors should feel good about the fact that there's an entry point and a long-term role for gold in a portfolio. So every investor should be asking the question, what should that look like? How should I think about allocating? I think the other thing to keep a close watch on is whether or not we see a

change in behavior on the jewelry side, which is, you know, there's been a slowdown in consumption, but dollars being spent are still high. But in that space, will they be unleashing jewelry into the recycling space needing access to capital, which we haven't seen as much of that, which is a good thing. And obviously keeping a close watch on the central bank durization reserve diversity. You know, we've got a report coming in midsummer, our annual survey with central banks. So, people should

pay close attention to what they're signaling in that report. >> Yeah, I think everybody knows at this point they need to be tracking the central banks. So, we'll keep an eye out for that. But I'm sure we'll have you back at that time or even before. But thank you so much. Nice to have you in person. >> Great to be here. Thanks for having me. >> Of course. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Joe Capatoni with the World Gold

Council.