I I think that you know once we break out of uh the pan and handle formation and ex and get into brand new highs in dollar terms that we're in for a slingshot move that gold is going to move very fast and very [Music] high hi everybody we're back again with Ronnie stet of incrementum Ag and the inold We Trust chartbook Ronnie how are you doing Mike very well good to see you thanks for having me again it's great to have you here so uh let's go over let's just jump right back into the chart book
and now we the the every everything we talked about in the previous video uh this relates a lot of those topics with gold and how it affects gold so tell us about this chart here the red the blue and that uh Pink area that is uh happening there yeah well I think Mike it's it's it's it's really important to we in the in the Western World we we tend to forget that um in our world gold is you know it's it's something like for you know for asset allocators it would be an alternative investment or a
satellite uh in your portfolio however for um you know the the the private individuals in in China in India in Vietnam in Turkey it is much much more than that it's actually the foundation um of their um wealth so as you can see on this chart here it seems that uh the bricks but it's also you know other other organizations like the SEO the Shanghai corpor uh Corporation organization and many others they slowly but surely um um um building their their gold reserves um so last year for example we have seen the highest amount
of Central Bank buying in history and this year so far it's also going really well I think the first half of the Year there was the the highest purchases of the last 20 years I think so it is significant and uh but it's all the it's all the East right it's all the bricks countries and so on the West is not buying uh you know so anyway you're going to show some of that in some upcoming charts but uh anyway go ahead I'm sorry but I think and this is this is really uh something where I wrote
about uh quite extensively and I think it's important if you want to understand gold I I think the the the perhaps the West is kind of losing control of the gold market um and we've seen that quite recently with the with the premiums in Shanghai uh Skyrocket it seems and this is really an important message that I always tell people when I do Keynotes the price of gold is more and more being made in Shanghai in Dubai in Mumbai and less so in New York in London and in Zurich I think that really it's
it's it's a really staggering amount of gold that is flowing into Emerging Markets not only for uh for the central banks but also for private individuals and we shouldn't forget they're also pretty significant producers so China and Russia at the moment are the two largest gold producers so I think we should be a little bit less arrogant in the western world and really focus what's going on in in in in in in these countries because they they have become the decisive drivers I would say in the
gold market yeah I I absolutely agree and the thing is they seem to be getting ready for something and the West isn't paying any attention so uh you know this one compares the gold purchases that have been going on uh for the East and the West to you know the the wealth where where where a lot of wealth exists for some reason we're not buying any gold and in the areas where there isn't that much wealth there they seem to know something is up and they are buying a lot of gold so just tell us about this
real quick I think it probably also correlates um with with inflation and weak currencies um I mean it's uh those countries they have experienced very high inflation even hyperinflation uh uh over the last couple of years um I always emphasized that that that when I did a keynote in in in Turkey in Istanbul um those the audience the investors from Turkey they ask the best questions about gold ever because for them gold is just natural it is the foundation of their portfolios why because they're they
they're used to high inflation they're used to a rubbish currency um and therefore I think it's you know the higher inflation is and the weaker the currency is um the higher the affinity for gold in a country now obviously in the Western World so far infl um is not really taken too seriously um I think it it has changed definitely um while you know we we all experienced the great moderation so very low uh macro uh volatility very low Vol uh volatility of inflation so actually inflation numbers
were coming down down down and now it popped up uh and I think many many people investors and ESP especially institutional investors still believe that this was just the the you know just one explosion of inflation and now we're going back to the old uh regime the the great moderation I don't really think so and if we for example have a look at the price of gold in Japanese Yen terms I mean have a look at this chart it's beautiful it's just you know the perfect uptrend of gold Japanese y terms or
downtrend of the Yen measured in Gold so therefore I believe that you know this will kind of change and we probably will all get used to significantly higher inflation numbers and from my point of view it would be pretty obvious that that people over here and we're seeing it already in in in in Germany and in Austria that that that gold demand has picked up significantly but I think that that should really continue I don't know how it is in the United States at the moment uh I think uh uh sales numbers are good
but they haven't really exploded yet but I think at some point that's going to change yeah you know um throughout history what I see is that you know a currency will start to lose value which is the cause of inflation of prices they inflate the currency Supply it's worth less and so the currency is losing value prices start going up and at the same time gold sort of lies in weight and then makes up for it all at once it you know it runs these waves and cycles and that lag is the opportunity and you look
at the expansion of our currency Supply and the inflation that is happening now at retail prices and uh and gold has in my mind uh a long way to catch up and that is the opportunity so Emerging Markets uh raise gold reserves amid dollarization I noticed um you've got you know the number of tons for each country what is the bar on the top of that stack is that the rest of the world yeah that's the rest of the world and actually this is a this is kind of an animation that we've made it's you know
it's a uh it's it's we we modeled it based on on on quarterly historical data and we said that actually um I think in 2050 at the latest Emerging Markets will have a higher amount of of gold old than the developed Market I mean of course those those models are always they have to be taken with with a grain of salt but now if you have a look at this pie chart um the Emerging Markets they they they now have 15.5% uh of the of the global gold reserves while uh the Western world has uh 84.5% I think this is this is going to
change why first of all we shouldn't forget that Emerging Markets they they are responsible for 87% of the world population they own 54% of all ifx reserves and if you have a look at demographics and growth numbers of most of the Emerging Markets it's definitely much more vibrant it's it's it's it's that's that's really where where the growth is um so therefore I think that that this this this uh you know uh tiny little uh uh uh part of the of of the pie I think it
will increase significantly not only because of this you know cultural affinity for gold but also because of of of of growing wealth uh in those countries yeah you know you mentioned the uh the the spread the premium that people were paying on the Shanghai exchange yes in China and that meant that uh during that per period where they were paying a 6% premium over the international spot price uh that was setting record high gold prices in rem Mimi and when gold is in the news cycle uh at record prices I mean I don't know
how that didn't it it it it has pulled back so it's below its highs its previous highs now from last year or the year before whenever that the previous high was uh so um the the demand over there though the number of people and then you think about how their economy seems to be on this very shaky Foundation of real estate that was way overinvestment uh thing I I think that you know once we break out of uh the pan and handle formation and ex and get into brand new highs in dollar terms that
we're in for a slingshot move that gold is going to move very fast and very high uh and then so Central Bank purchases hi I just wanted to take a moment and thank you for subscribing and mention that if you'd like to help our Channel please consider my company goldsilver.com the next time you buy precious metals we're one of the most trusted names in the industry our prices are sharp delivery is fast and we have an insiders program where you find out exactly what I'm doing with my own Investments thanks for
making gold silver.com your dealer and now back to the video and then so Central Bank purchases just run us through this real quick yeah I mean as as I've said before I mean those those numbers are just uh are just staggering and and and we have have to ask ourselves well well why actually um did did central banks really really start buying so much uh gold for in last year and I think the uh the explanation is is is pretty obvious I mean it's Crystal Clear that um with the sanctions against
Russia um after they started the war against against Ukraine um when when the US and the EU EU BAS basically what was the number like uh 350 or or 400 billion of of of Russian reserves were basically um with the stroke of a pen kind of kind of written off or or or or frozen I think for for many other countries this was kind of a warning shot and they said well you know we're somewhat our relationship with the United States isn't so well um we are heavily invested in in in US dollar as assets um so therefore perhaps we we
should diversify a little bit uh and you know in in in what asset class should you diversify it should be neutral um it should be very liquid it should have a you know a low bit ask spread it should be accepted all over the globe and you you don't want to have any counterparty risk I think that's that's really really crucial uh and I think gold you know fits pretty well into in in in into that and therefore I think that um and that's that's really interesting uh Mike as as as as we've see we are seeing that the
Western Financial investor um isn't really participating in in in in this recent moving gold so we have seen massive outflows uh from the gold ETFs over the last couple of month and it was compensated or it was even overcompensated by Central Bank demand and and if I if I work through you know the material that is being put out by the central banks by the local central banks it seems that they've got they have established long-term buying programs for gold so therefore I think this Central buying Central Bank buying
Trend this will stay around for for quite a while and I think this will be some sort of the the foundation of of this bull market so uh tell us about the I'm not sure what atth stands for what alltime high sorry alltime High okay yeah um yeah tell us about that last bar so that's uh this is so that was the record amount of Central Bank buying uh uh last year and and and and and as I've said I mean2 okay 2022 yeah22 okay and so that is both because of the war and uh yeah okay yeah so it was it was uh The
People's Bank of China they they announced in November and in December um that they were actively purchasing again and and and they have been pretty quiet for for for a while so I think this is also the the symbolic character of the Chinese saying we're buying gold again I think that that shouldn't be underestimated uh we saw that that Egypt was buying Qatar usbekistan Iraq uh the United Arab Emirates turkey obviously turkey was the largest purchaser last year um but then also quite recently
Singapore for example but also Poland um Hungary and the Czech Republic so it's actually kind of Diversified it's it's it's it's really really all over um and I think that's that's that's what's interesting what's interesting though is it's it's never the Western countries what you know consider the the Western countries so uh it's it's the rest of the world getting ready for something and wanting to put themselves on an equal footing with uh basically like the
us being the largest holder of gold so um yeah with that I think uh that we should wrap this one up is there anything else you want to say about this chart or about uh gold in central banks no Mike uh I think it's uh it's just exciting uh you know following the gold market at the moment as there's so much going on and you know all those Che political developments they they they now really um meet the financial or the monetary problems that that we've been forecasting for quite a while so um it's
it keeps me up at night but it's it's it's super interesting what what amazes me is that uh you know being a precious metals dealer I see when U people want to buy and when they have no interest in it so and right now there's this big lull where uh you know in my opinion this is when you want to get ready for uh something you don't want to be chasing price or buying out of fear and so you want to buy when when things are moving sideways or taking a dip if possible uh and uh so but there is to me
I mean it's it's very obvious do you agree that do you feel like there's more to this financial crisis than we've experienced thus far well yeah I mean definitely what's what we're seeing now is you know it's as I've said it's kind of a storm brewing but it's uh you know my my my my my friend uh Tavi Costa it's said it's it's really a couple of of of of of issues um uh coming together now it is like uh first of all it's um it's it's it's an inflation problem and also
a geopolitical crisis is uh like we've seen in the 1970s um then we're seeing um uh issues in the in the bond market um that we haven't seen in a while because you know as as I've said before it's it's it's it's really it's really frightening what's uh what's what what's going on in the in in the bond market uh we're seeing a speculative uh environment like in the late 1920s and in the uh in the 1990s where um you know those Magnificent Seven uh all those uh uh
seven big tech stocks they they they still keep doing well while the rest of the market is actually going sideways or or or or even lower um so so this all coming together that's that's a pretty explosive setup and uh you know having this ridiculously hawkish Federal Reserve in an environment where they should have actually uh uh lowered rates already quite significantly um that's you know an accident waiting to happen well they're only going to lower them at and once they have popped the bubble
past tense yes uh they're they're instead of trying to actually bring us in for a soft Landing uh you know it's it's been I I did a series of videos on this almost it was in December of last year uh you know that they aren't even trying to bring us in for a soft Landing so anyway with that I want to thank you so much for presenting all of this and thank you for all the work that you've put into this because you know the audience has no idea the level of work it takes to do something like this so uh
tell tell them again where they can download this chart book yeah no but Mike I have to thank my team because we're we're 20 people actually working on the report and and all of our Publications and it wouldn't be possible without the support of our premium Partners um so so so I'm only the guy talking about the charts but but we've got a terrific team that is actually building them and and and and and doing the layout and everything um well if you want to uh download the chart Book And
subscribe for our services uh just have a look at inold with trust. report you can download our uh inold with trust report more than 400 pages but there's also a compact version um uh totally for free you can download all our chartbook the monthly Gold Compass but also this special chart book and yeah um as I've said you you don't have to register of course you can uh we'd be happy about it but you can download everything totally free of charge on our web page in goldb trust. report awesome I want to thank
everybody for watching and thank you Ronnie we'll see you next time thank you Mike see you soon bye-bye hi I just wanted to tell you about gold Silver's 111 oce silver giveaway where you can win win win 11 one one one 1 oz silver bar one 10 oz silver bar and one 100 o silver bar so enter today and win
0 Comments
Post a Comment