gold news

 I do think that we are uh entering the final phase of this bull market and that you're going to see some absolutely astounding results from here. Hi everyone. I'm back with Alan Hibbert. Alan, how are you doing? I'm great, Mike. Thanks. How are you? Great. So, you've got a presentation about uh I think the dollar and gold or the economy and gold. So, yes, exactly. I I saw I saw an article um from SPRAT that basically said that the dollar and traditional safe haven assets are no longer acting as a safe haven and now

the entire world is turning towards gold and this represents a new paradigm shift something that hasn't happened really in 50 years. So I wanted to walk our audience through it, show a couple of charts and basically explain what might come next. Excellent. Okay. Uh this goes along with uh I believe that we're entering the third phase of the bull market. the the final blowoff phase. Uh the phase that I've been, you know, I I made a video of it that'll be out sometime soon. Uh but this last phase is

where the you have the greatest gains in the shortest period of time, the third phase. And uh there's evidence I believe that we are there and it's all based on the similarities between uh this bull market and the 1970s bull market. So yeah, let's see this. This looks great. Awesome. So here is the article. A shaky US dollar boosts gold's role as an alternative reserve asset. And this is coming from May 8th, so fairly recent. Before you move on, I just want to say that as a shake as an alternative

reserve asset. they just will not try gold instead of a go gold gold standards or using it as a reserve underneath all of these stupid uh national fiat currencies with all these fluctuating exchange rates that hurt business uh the exchange rates I mean all these trade deals and tariffs you the the tariffs can be offset in just a second by a change in the forex exactly and so yeah Right. Uh they I don't know why nobody ever talks about just going back to gold because it would create an honest banking system. Uh it

would be something that is rock solid and it's a one world currency if every country was pricing things in milligrams, nanograms, grams of gold. So yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry. I agree. No worries. All right. So the article here has three main takeaways. The first is market market turbulence in response to the Trump administration's tariff actions is delivering a clear verdict. Global investors are losing faith in the US financial architecture which no longer looks reliable. And of course the

US financial architecture has been the reliable um architecture for decades. You know 50 years at least maybe maybe we could even say a hundred. So yeah, um, gold is a major beneficiary of these events. While US equities, bonds, and the dollar were falling simultaneously in April, a phenomenon not seen since the 1970s, gold hit an all-time high reaching $3,500 an ounce, and its monetary appeal continues to grow. So, we are going to zoom in on on that phenomenon in just a second. We believe the decline of the US dollar is driving

the emergence of a multi-asset reserve system which will likely need a widely accepted neutral reserve asset as its key reference point. Gold is uniquely suited to this role. Okay. So, as America's financial pillars shake, gold soarses. So, I think a lot of people know that uh back in April, the White House paused tariffs, you know, implemented tariffs, paused it, and there was really two things that happened. First panic by investors and then a sharp relief rally. So both episodes delivered the same verdict.

Global investors are losing faith in the US financial architecture that has been seen as reliable for decades. For the first time since 1977, stocks, bonds, and the dollar itself fell at the same time. So I'm about to show a chart of that. And at the same time, gold vaulted to record highs. What was once a stable pattern of flight to quality in US assets has flipped and the author of the article says we believe this inversion is a warning sign that something fundamental has changed. So it has changed and you

know I do need to make a comment on the tariffs and stuff. I just can't this I'm I'm hoping that this is just a a negotiating tactic because if Trump actually believes that the tariffs can protect US industry and create prosperity, then he's much dumber than I thought. I He can't be that dumb. It it just violates all principles of economics. It's it's a really super bad idea. And now he's introduced so much uncertainty. Uh, I will be making a video on this later as well, the the

tariffs, because it is like the worst idea I've ever heard. So, go ahead. Well, you've heard of fiat currency. Come on, that's even worse than Yeah, that's a dumb idea, right? Okay. All right. Let's take a look at what happened in 1977. So, I put this chart together. Gold climbs while stocks, bonds, and the dollar fall. So, stocks, bonds, and the dollar are across the bottom here. these two green and blue lines. And what we're looking at is just the year 1977. So that's that's

what the article was referencing. And this is the most recent time where all three of them fell aside from last month. Okay. In April, all three of them were falling at the same time. Um but but uh otherwise for the 48 years in between at least one of the three was going up at any given time. And when that happened, you can see that gold did extremely well in a year. I forget the calculation here. Well, it went from, you know, $135 to $168, something like that. So, uh, pretty nice gain. I don't know if What

does that mean? Just want to point out this for every everybody in the audience. Think about those prices. $135 to $160. Yeah. That's for an ounce of gold. For an ounce of gold. And just a few years before that, it was still 35. Yeah. Yeah. And so and and everybody has to remember uh it's the dollar going down, not gold going up necessarily. So, but in this case, it is going up. Look at how many more bonds or stocks you could buy in just this short period. when they're diverging, it means

that measured in gold, the stocks and bonds are falling at an even greater rate as far as the, you know, how many ounces of gold it takes to buy those stocks or bonds. Exactly. And this is just for one year. And so people might say, okay, this phenomenon that happened back in 1977, that also just happened in April, previous month, but it's over, right? So, it would have been nice to go back to the beginning of the period and invest, you know, buy low at the beginning, but it's over now, right? No.

Let's zoom out and see what happened the next couple of years. It looks like this. So, this is showing three years. And the chart we just looked at is the first third of the chart. So, the first third, that was 1977. And now I've basically just continued it and reformatted the axes a little bit. So you can see just how big the bull market in gold actually got. And you know the these other assets uh didn't do so well. Right? So you're you're looking at like I'm looking at the uh 10-year Treasury

line. And back then treasuries had the nickname certificates of confiscation because they confiscated your wealth. Uh it was a stealth thing that you didn't even see. you were you were making a return on them, but it was way below inflation. And uh the end of that line where it just takes a a dive and in just a few months you lose about 10% of your wealth. Uh while gold, I mean, look at what it was doing in those same months. Yeah. Yeah. Gold gold basically doubled in 42 days. I I know that not from this

chart but I know that from looking at the numbers that uh are included in this. So yeah 42 days but that includes weekends. If you do trading days I believe it was 29 trading days. It could be. Yeah it was it was fast doubling doubling in price. So so we could be headed for that you know weekends and holidays right. Okay. And so technically, just so everyone is aware, technically the S&P uh is actually increasing for the last two years here because otherwise we would say, you know, either 1978 or 1979 would have

been the most recent year where all three assets were declining at the same time. But technically the stock market was going up. It's very hard to tell with this blue line. So maybe okay so uh there at it was it it went from minus 9% up to - 8%. What's the indexing here? Ah so on the right hand side is just the 10-year Treasury and it's inverted and the only reason it's not indexed. This is just the return. Okay. Yeah. The only reason I have negatives here is because I wanted to make sure that the green line

was low on the screen so it was close to the others. Otherwise, if I started at zero up here, it'd be stretched. Okay. So, yeah. Excellent. Maybe you should have blocked that out, but I, you know, it's okay. And then the left scale is the price of gold. Yeah, the left scale is the price of gold and the S&P 500 index uh and the dollar index actually. So, it's all and and they're not even they're not even reindexed. the S&P was actually 107 and then three years later it was like 114. So um yeah, so it's not

re-index, it's just the normal actual value of the S&P index. Yeah, but I think it fell again. It I I mean the Dow didn't break a thousand until 82 and this chart only goes to uh January February of 1980. So yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So, we could be in for a move like this in gold with a move like this in stocks, bonds, and the dollar. It's possible, right? We seem to be repeating uh something from the 1970s here. Well, I think it's actually, you know, bonds were a bad investment back then, but now

I think we didn't have the debt. We didn't have these uh trade wars going on. Uh you know, the dollar had only been a fiat currency for eight years. And so there were actually people that thought that the dollar could fail. That was one of the drivers for gold. But um uh the loss this time around I think in US treasuries I think with the amount of debt that we're having and the amount of the countries that are turning their back on the US dollar at this point. Uh I think you could see an even bigger

dive in bonds than we saw during you know in this blowoff top for gold. Uh bonds and stocks could do a lot worse than they did back in the 70s. Yeah, I agree. I agree. Uh and so a lot of people out there might wonder like what are the reasons to own gold? I know a lot of viewers of this channel, they know already, but uh we do have some new viewers joining us uh just about every day. And so for them, I want to include four reasons that this article cites about why gold might be good to include.

So first, gold is reasserting and building its safe haven role. Investors who question the reliability of US treasuries or the US dollar increasingly view gold as a store of value beyond any sovereign's reach. This role once defaulted to treasuries and the dollar. But of course, it's all changing. Right. And so that's one going to be one of these drivers that I'm talking about causing bonds and the dollar to go down while gold just skyrockets. Yeah. Okay. Great. Exactly. Number two, gold remains

a non-correlated diversifier. So, for example, there's a lot of people out there who are going to have stocks in their portfolio no matter what. It's just a question of what percentage, what percentage bonds, okay? Well, gold is a non-correlated diversifier. During liquidity squeezes, equities and bonds can fall together due to the forced sale of liquid assets. Gold may be caught in that initial liquidation, but history shows it rec recovers quickly once forced sales abate, restoring its low or

even negative correlation to mainstream risk assets. Yeah. And uh I expect that this time around. But the non-correlated, you know, you did a chart once uh showing the uh risk versus re uh reward ratio for uh gold and stock mixed and uh the highest um re the the the best stabilization, the lowest volatility in your portfolio uh with the highest return comes where you have about 25 or 30% gold in your portfolio. not 10% or 5% like uh Wall Street uh suggests is the maximum that you should put in there. Uh so you know

even and you know this was uh that chart incorporated I think 1971 through uh 2020 or something 2022 uh it it included the big bare market from 1980 to 1999. If you just go with the fact that we are currently in a gold bull market, that would probably pump gold up into where you want 60% of your portfolio in gold for the uh maximum uh reduction in volatility, a lowering of risk, and the maximum return. Yeah, it would it would definitely be super high. I don't know the percentage off the top of my head, but it it would

be high. Probably a majority of your portfolio would be in gold, probably. Yeah, we need to find that spreadsheet and do that uh chart again just covering this bull market starting in the year 2000. Okay. Yeah, sounds great. All right, the third reason, and by the way, there are four of them. The third reason, gold is an effective inflation and stagflation hedge. Tariffs that raise production costs weaken the US dollar. They reduce supply efficiency and embed a cost push inflation impulse even as growth slows. Gold outperformed

most financial assets in every major stagflation episode from the 1970s oil embargo to emerging market crisis. Yeah. You know, uh until we see unemployment start rising, which it should pretty darn soon, uh we can't really call this stagflation yet. We've got the inflation. Uh we've got a one quarter of a contracting economy. Uh and I have a feeling with all of the layoffs that are going to happen due to the tariffs uh that we are going into this will be a stagflationary recession. Uh you're

going to see inflation because of the tariffs. Uh but you're going to see rising unemployment because of the tariffs. Exactly. Yeah, I agree completely. And number four, we believe structural demand from central banks and sovereigns is building a durable price floor. Since late 2022, official sector buyers led by developing emerging market central banks looking to diversify away from the US dollar have been the dominant marginal purchasers. Their steady accumulation creates what amounts to a central bank

put beneath the gold price. Dips attract sovereign buying while the upside could remain uncapped if private investors join the bid. Absolutely. So, you know, it says that it's uh that the sovereigns are building a a durable floor. Well, that floor is ups sloping in the future. It's not a level. It's it's only going that floor keeps on going up and up and up and it's going to continue out into the future. Yeah. It's funny you mentioned that because one of the charts from the

article is exactly that. It's gold's well-defined uptrend. And you can see the last few years there's this valuation channel that's steadily increasing largely, you know, the author says largely as a result of those um central banks and sovereigns buying gold. Um and I I tend to agree. So this this is absolutely uh here to stay in my opinion. Excellent. So yes, I I uh believe so too. There is room in that channel for a pullback to 3,000 right now. I don't think it's going to happen, but uh I do

think that we are uh entering the final phase of this bull market and that you're going to see some absolutely astounding results from here. I think so, too. So, here we go. We've got two memes to end it out. Trump says, "You better go out and buy stocks now. Let me tell you, this country will be like a rocket ship that goes straight up. Sometimes I can't believe that he says these things while he's uh conducting this trade war and um if it's just a negotiating tactic, if

it's uh right out of the art of the deal, uh then it could work out. But if it's and and if he ends it real soon, this has to be resolved very quickly before it cause causes potentially a global depression. I think so too. Yeah, I think he's playing the politics game. When he says that, you know, it it's going to be a windfall of taxes, all those taxes come out of the American economy. But when you slow down GDP, you're you're punishing the entire world economy. Yep. Exactly. And our final meme here,

trust the banking system. They said your deposits are safe from a currency war, they said. Yeah. Well, trust gold. So, I agree. Awesome. Hi, this is just a quick remin der. We're offering you free silver at golds.com as a thank you for choosing us as your dealer. Just click the link below for details.