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  This is the Investing News Network. I'm George Williams and today we have a little holiday treat for you. An excerpt from a December 4th interview with Lo Gray of the Independent Speculator where we discuss the uranium market trends of 2025 and where the energy fuel is poised to go in 2026. Looking back at 2025, what were the key drivers of uranium's price moves and how would you characterize the market now? >> Well, the real market is the long-term contract price. >> Uranium bulls will tell you that and I

think it's a fair characterization. I mean, that's, you know, actual buyers, sellers, users, suppliers exchanging and what it takes to get a minor to sell his or her uranium and, you know, what the actual user is willing to buy. Um, and I'm not digressing. You know, that really matters though because that, you know, the real market though is not transparent. You only find out afterwards and then, you know, you have to do some soothing. you they don't disclose the individual contracts, just

here's what we paid on average for the last quarter or something like that. So, it's it's messy. And that means that we have the more convenient number, the spot price, which is the less accurate number, right, >> and the one that gets hunted around more by people doing crazy things. Um so the the boring the real answer the the real market is kind of the boring answer is that it's been you know going up pausing consolidating going up >> the real market is having a good year

and it has risen to a price level that with um inflation mining cost inflation which is much much higher than general inflation the cost increases we've seen in all kinds of mining over the last years really since co co kicked mining in the posterior really hard >> right >> I mean like 20% 50% cost increases and tires and all the only thing that's down is fuel lately but um so um the long-term contract price has been rising it is at a level that clearly does incent production we've had

chemical and kazadam prom have both ramp back up again. They've both failed to hit their targets and have officially moved their goal posts. So now it looks like, oh, everything's fine. But, you know, don't forget they did move those gold posts. Both of them, the biggest cost producers in the world move their gold posts and that's significant. >> And it's bullish, right? So, and the juniors that have rushed in, you know, clearly the incentive is there for them to do so. But all of those are

either late, completely off track, or didn't even get started. None of them have been able to say, "Yeah, we're going to build this or rehabilitate that and deliver on time, on schedule, and that the production levels as advertised." >> Right? So this is really significant to you know the status of the market because I think it was a legitimate fear say in 2024 when prices went up to triple digits and corrected right it was a reasonable fear to say well high prices are going to cure high prices

there's like OPEC the uranium market was involuntary supply cuts at the time both Kazad prom and kamico the two big players were voluntarily cutting supply um so it was reasonable to say, oh well prices are way up, that supply is going to come back and people are going to build mines and you know maybe high prices cure high prices. Um so what we've seen now the answer is and over the course of 24 and 25 is okay yes the price was high enough to incent you know but it turned out to be a lot harder to

do to pick that low hanging fruit than anybody thought right >> it was thorny fruit. >> So this this is where this is the ultimate answer here. It's like the experience we've had over the last two years tells us that the supply remains constrained. there was some question about whether or not it was a legitimate question whether or not that would be the case but it's clearly the case. >> It's very very bullish going forward at the same time that you don't need me to

tell you that the demand side is just going nuts right >> if it's not daily it's at least weekly we see some bullish headline um and it's not just bricks countries building reactors like there's no tomorrow which they are >> you know China wants to double its reactor fleet um but it's even you know the United States It's really interesting. You know, Biden was also pro- nuclear. It got that green mantra and instead of, you know, pretty much anything else that had Biden's name

on it, Trump is undone. But that's why he hasn't. He's doubled down on that. He's strongly pro- nuclear. >> So, this is absolutely, I think, an idea whose time has come again. >> Yeah. the um the moral high ground coming to the uranium space is just an incredible 180 in this whole space. So, >> so the demand side is could scarcely be stronger and at the same time the supply side has turned out to be much more difficult to address than than the optimists imagined.

>> Right? >> So, I think that's the real market. That's the real world. Now, the spot price is volatile. It goes up and down. You know, say you are one of these uh producers or would be producers that's that's trying to take advantage of high prices and you bought uranium at $30 a pound or $50 a pound and now you're building your mind. Well, now you need to cash in. You didn't buy that unless you're sput, right? You didn't buy that to hold it forever, right? You bought

that >> with the idea of selling it when prices were higher. And so, and you never know when that happens until after the fact. So spot price vacasillates. Um but the fundamentals are just super strong and I'm very bullish. >> Yeah, absolutely. And you brought up, you know, the long-term contracting price, which is a better gauge of the market. We did see the spot price and long-term contract price converge twice in 2025 in June and September. Is this an indicator that the market is

balancing? What does it say about the current cycle? Well, spot often runs ahead. >> Yeah. >> Of long-term contract. >> They always converge in the end, but they never stay the same. The market never I mean, you know, equilibrium is is an economic concept that, you know, only in ivory towers >> does that serve any useful purpose >> in the real world? You know, it's it's like rubber bands in chewing gum. It's mushy and they go back and forth and one slingshots ahead and falls behind. So

I don't read too much into the spot price movements. There there are weeks where the spot price is down at the same time uh I don't know India announces new reactors or or Ukraine announces you know a contract for 20 reactors. makes no sense, >> right? >> Except that maybe what we don't know is is UEC or Energy Fuels or somebody else just sold a whack of uranium that they bought cheap and now they're they're cashing in to fund some project of theirs or something, right? We don't

know that until afterwards. So, it's really, I think, a bit of a fool's error. No, not a bit, let me not mince words. I think it is a fool's errand to try to read too much into spot. Other than that, you know, it rises above, falls below, but it never deviates too far from the long-term contract price. And what we go with that is >> if spot is under long-term contract, >> you know, that's an opportunity. Unless like as long as long-term contract keeps going up, if spot goes down and that

puts the stocks on sale, that's an opportunity. If spot goes way ahead of long-term contract, especially if it rolls over, it's going down, but spot is ignoring that, then that would be a signal to take profit. So, in that sense, uh irrational exuberance or irrational pessimism can be opportunities one way or the other, long or short. >> Mhm. And governments have stepped up support this year. How significant has that been for the market's confidence? And what more could policy do to

accelerate supply development and security? It's obviously huge. >> Yeah. >> Uh, you know, uranium was a four-letter word not too long ago. It was pretty much uninvestable. Uh, almost as bad as coal. It's interesting that coal is scarier than uranium in today's world. >> Yeah. >> Uh, or tobacco or something, you know, another four-letter word, right? So, so it it really is huge. And but it's not just like market psychology, though that is part of it. It's also

market mechanics. If you have funds that are structurally constrained to only invest in ESG and now uranium is G, right? It's green. >> Yeah. >> So G is governance. I know but I'm go with Right. Um so I I think that's you know mechanically it unlocks funds or like the taxonomy in Europe for nuclear to be included in the green taxonomy over there >> not only means that government funds can go there but again you know uh private funds other institutions that rely on that permission slip

>> right >> will will invest accordingly. So it um it's it's material more than just psychologically. It it matters to funds flows in the markets, >> right? >> And you know, an industry that's been starved of funding for so long, uh to see that change, it's it's a real 180, it matters. >> Absolutely. And um you know, on that sort of vein, uh jurisdictional risk seems to be more prevalent than ever before. the resource um across the resource sector in New Orleans. Jennifer

Shadic said she's concerned about the nationalization of mines. We have seen uh this playing out in Niger regarding the Somine just recently. Do you think my nationalization is a threat to the Iranian market? >> Not really, not as such. I mean national well there's there's resource nationalism which is more broader issue of you know we need our own and we need to have our own production. that sort of thing. And and these are our resources. We need a bigger stake of the pie if foreigners are going to mine it. That

sort of thing. That >> that's always an ever present. It's it's just it's not a variable. It's a constant, >> right? >> Um actual nationalization is is fairly rare. And even in Nair, there are arguably uh other political issues. >> Um you know, anti-western or anti-French sentiment play a role in these things. >> Yeah. and and and there's hot spot, you know, look at all the problems Bareric has had in Mali and not just Bareric, you know. So, so it's it's not specific

to the Iranian thing. It is political risk is something that you have to watch out for, I think, everywhere as as a resource investor. Um, you know, the world is waking up to the need for critical minerals and that is pushing back on the nimi thinking. >> But it's not like nimi thinking just goes away in a day, >> right? And you know, even if you as a green pinch your nose and say, "Okay, I'll get it. We're going to mine uranium because we we need this wonderful 247

365 source of power to back up our windmills and solar panels." >> Doesn't mean you actually like it, >> right? >> And you just as soon do it if you could find a way to do without. Uh, and you want to do it as little as possible. So foot dragging, you know, permitting issues and but you know that that's that's always going to be there. But flatout nationalization is even in today's world, sorry, but even in Africa, it's it's actually not that common,

>> right? Yeah. Um, that's a good point. Uh, new mines take a decade or more to reach production. Given current price levels, permitting timelines, and capital constraints, do you think 2026 will see any new projects or shuttered projects coming online or is the market still restrained by existing capacity? >> Yes, no, and maybe. Um, so the I mean the the the DAS of the world and things like that, they're not going to take 10 years. problem there is well you know what the problems there are

>> um energy fuels is working on bringing three mines back online we've heard some progress on two of the three as far as I recall the third one they don't talk about which is not good and the two of the three like they've cut back their production guidance they say things are going okay but instead of half a million pounds or it's like 100,000 pounds I don't remember the exact numbers right that they too move the goalpost But um it's as memory serves I haven't heard of

anybody I think the entire year in 24 people were restarting refurbishing dusting off ramping up all that in 25 I don't think I've heard of anybody saying okay yeah we're going to build this mine it's it was the stuff that was already started >> so in 20 the answers to your question is you know we may see new mines announced hit commercial you know production name plate capacity or maybe at a reduced capacity, but but into commercial production. We may see several announcements. There are multiple

projects in the works right now, >> but they've been in the works since 24. >> Yeah. >> So, I I I don't know of any new ones. I I >> I may be wrong. You're uh Justin could probably tell you with much more precision exactly how many projects were announced in 25, but off the top of my head, I don't know of any. Yeah. So either >> Yeah. So I think what we'll see is is maybe completion of some of the projects already underway, >> right? >> And that's a maybe like that the foot

dragging there is really quite significant. >> Absolutely. You know, and data centers are sort of the one of these main cruxes of the the uranium narrative moving forward. And we've seen the WNA put out reports every year that, you know, we're not meeting the demand that there is now. Like the supply doesn't meet it. So where do we go when these data centers, you know, start you brought that up? So we could probably do a whole interview on this. So much to say, but but there's

a couple really important things. One is the fundamentals here. The the demand for the uranium, and this isn't like, you know, um Doc in the Back to the Future movies who can pour a banana peer and a beer into the back of his Mr. Fusion and fly the car off, right? You It's uranium. You can't substitute thorium. Maybe 10 years or 20 years from now we will but we there's no thorium there's no other unoptanium or anything else you can put in there it has to be uranium >> right

>> um and okay fusion may replace all fision in the but you know that's >> down the road >> been five years in the future for the last 50 years right >> right >> so so it's uranium so and you know this I don't need to lecture you on this but it's really important to keep in mind because there's a lot of stoium out there about all these other things coming and um you know with the data centers that and the AI I just want to stress that you know the

the use case is base load power has always been there >> and there's no substitution and the world is building like gang busters okay so that's that's just there >> on top of that there's the electric cars >> and people say oh wow you know people you know Trump just rolled back the cafe standards you know sell energy sell everything people aren't people aren't going to need electric energy anymore because electric cars nobody's going to buy electric cars. Well, that's that's

exactly the wrong idea from what I'm saying. You know, it's base load power. It's keeping hospitals lit, right? Airports. And that's what you want your 247 base load power for. >> So, the EV story was a tailwind. And if it completely went away, it would not undo the thesis for your aim. It would it would it would remove a tailwind, not the base story. >> Right. Uh, and AIS are just like that. Right now, in both cases, the EVs are not going away. It's a very US- ccentric

view to think that the EVs are going away. I heard I saw another headline that the China is actually dumping gas powered cars around the world because nobody in China wants them. They're all going electric. >> Yeah. >> And so now these these people with these legacy cars, they got to get rid of them. >> Yeah. Exactly. >> Um, and and Europe certainly isn't hasn't given up on electric cars. They've doubled down. And >> if you thought that Europe was going to

give up and and go back to gas guzzlers, you know, just look I mean co didn't make them do it. War with Russia didn't make them do it. >> Yeah. They're not going to do that. So it's just >> it's a tailwind, but I really believe it's not going away. And the same thing with the AI. Yes, AI hype. Yes, there's going to be a lot of companies going to blow up. I think there's a a significant chance that that we get a a major market event based on the AI bubble popping.

>> Um, and there will be a lot of panic selling of everything related. And unfortunately, that's going to smack uranium too because it has become an AI play. >> Now, lightning EVs though, that's a tailwind. It's not the base case. Nobody should be investing on uranium just because, oh, AI data centers are going to need nuclear power plants. I mean, even if that's true, those things are going to take 5 10 years to build, right? >> Exactly. >> That's um that's a forwardlooking

statement, you know, on steroids. >> Right. >> So So I think you understand what I'm saying. The the base case here is absolutely solid. Yes. >> And there's an EV tailwind that turns into a headwind for a while, then that's a creator of opportunities. If the AI bubble bursts, in some ways, I almost hope that it will and it'll smack everything down because I've already made a bunch of money. I've already taken a profits. You know, I've I've booked some big wins.

>> Um, and I'd like a chance to load up again, but I don't want to chase relatively high prices. Everything that I've told you, Georgia, I think, is so obvious. >> Yeah. >> I mean, not let's not say obvious. I'm not saying what we're doing is a waste of time. Um, but there's, let's say, there's so much noise out there that the that the signal gets lost in the noise, but it's there and people know it. And we know that they know it because the

stock prices of the uranium companies have really not corrected that much. >> There's been some wiggling and some pullback, but people have not decided, oh, AI hype, I'm selling uranium in mass. That's just not happened yet. So, so I the writing on the wall is on the wall. It's clear. And then that means there haven't been many great buying opportunities. >> Yeah. >> Um but so if the AI bubble really pops on Wall Street and people are throwing out babies with bathwater, right? That

could be a spectacular gift because it will mean nothing but nothing about the base case for uranium. And by the way, the data centers will still get built, right? >> Even if the AI bubble pops. Um, so I I could I almost kind of I I don't want to say I wish it would happen because a lot of people get hurt, but if it happens, I don't want to celebrate anybody else's pain, but I'll tell you, I will be gleefully in the market buying cuz that would be, you know, when the market puts

something that you know is valuable that that you you understand the thesis here and you want to be long, but you're resistant simply on the basis of price. Yeah. >> So when the market puts it on sale on sale and you get that price and nothing has changed. Everything else about that is an absolute gift. Um and it doesn't happen that often. >> Yeah. >> You know, fluctuations happen. But but a big sale on something you absolutely want to own and it's for completely the

wrong reasons, >> right? >> You know, that's that's the stuff that makes fortunes for people with the courage of their convictions. >> Yeah. It'll be like a Black Friday sale for uranium, I suppose. >> A little less predictable, but yeah. >> Um, you know, and heading into the new year, how should investors be positioned for 2026? >> Uh, well, I don't give advice. I can tell you that what I have been doing is I've I'm I'm bullish on

anything governments can't print as a class. >> Okay? But I'm cautious about ongoing Trump shock and the the prices to be paid for the attempted retooling of the US and global economy. And this isn't necessarily a pro or anti-Trump statement. If you completely on board with everything Trump is trying to do and defend America from China, Russia or the world or whatever, >> fine. But understand that this is a big change >> to to bring manufacturing back to the United States to change the nature of

the economy is a big change. >> And I may be wrong um but it's really hard for me to see something like that happening completely smoothly with no pain of adjustment. The the novacane here might be the money helicopters and or you know what Lyn Alden calls fiscal dominance or Michael Howell global liquidity. You know, the governments are aware of this and >> and so far, you know, there have been shocks to the economy throughout 2025, >> but apparently the liquidity, you know,

there's enough money in the air that the economy has been able to ride right on through it without major at least easily measurable um pain. But I'm I I just can't quite bring myself to say, "Oh, all clear. Just bye bye bye everything because everything's fine." Uh so what I'm doing is I've taken substantial profits. I have not sold everything. I haven't gotten out of the market, but I've taken substantial profits to have well a locked in my wins. Like I, as Rick RS

calls it, the point of no concern, >> speculating, you know, look at the name speculating. It's high risk. Yeah. >> And some stress always comes with risk. So, how great is that to be able to be a speculator and not be able to lose money? >> Amazing, >> right? To to play with the house's money. You make enough money, you take enough profits that you can't lose. >> Yeah. >> That's a fantastic thing. So, that by itself is worth doing, >> but the big thing is to have cash in

case you get that buying opportunity. If the AI bubble pops like we were talking about, >> yeah, >> it's not just going to be rain. It's going to be everything. >> Yeah. And I I remember like some of the most agonized emails I got in 2008 were not from the people saying, "Oh, you bastard. You told me to buy the stock and it's down." You know, people understood um you know, Gold Bugs in particular understood that that sale price that we got in gold in 2008. So was a buying

opportunity, but the pain was I don't have any money left. You know, we saw this coming. I've been buying all the way down and now I'm all in and you know and things are even cheaper than when I bought and that really you know people were just just it it wasn't like hate mail exactly but it was just like people crying in their beers like like this imagine having a once in a-lifetime buying opportunity and having no cash, no money, no ability whatsoever >> to to act on it and you know you're

right. And by the way, like you were approved, right? Within two months, by the end of 2008, gold was in black. >> Yeah. >> Right. So, so that's the other reason for taking profits. It's not, oh, he lacks conviction or he doesn't, you know, >> Darth silver, whatever they call me. Right. It's a it's great to be a speculator and not be able to lose to be able to sleep all the night. And B, it's great to have the cash to put into the market if you get handed such an

opportunity. >> Absolutely. >> I don't know who get that. I think there's a pretty good chance and I'll be loaded for bear if that happens. If that bear shows up. >> Yeah. >> And that's great. And if not, I'll have money and I'll be able to rotate into other things. >> Yes. >> Specifically for me, that's gold, silver, copper, and uranium. >> Yes. >> Um nothing else right now. And that depends on how things shake out. At some

point, I expect to be going long. Oil, maybe some other metals and minerals. Uh we'll see but that depends on those specific markets as they evolve. But >> but the things that I would buy the dip on right now, >> you know, gold, silver, copper, uranium. >> Fabulous. And you know, bringing up the point that you had mentioned about this retooling of the economy like it very much feels like the reverse of globalization and that took 30 years to sort of roll out all the way. So like

you're saying, the transition back is going to be a bumpy road, you know. Yeah, I I get hate when I say this, but my impression is that the the the um the slang terminology for what the um Trump administration is trying to do is fake it until you make it. >> Right. >> Like talk about how we have the greatest economy ever. Deny there's any pain no matter what the lower leg of the case says. >> Yeah. >> Right. Everything's great. Everything's fine. Just keep believing. keep

shopping, keep doing all that stuff. And if you can do that long enough for the tax cuts and the incentives and all these 20 trillion that Trump says that's going to be invested, >> you know, even the United States, $20 trillion invested would be a lot, >> right? So, if that really starts happening, >> um it's not a fantasy that you can grow your way out of an economic, >> you know, debt problem, >> right? that that can that hap you know even you know main even Kynian

economists you know that's kind of what they like prime the pump to grow your way out of the debt problem right so >> so it's it's not that it can't happen it's just that it's risky >> and and you know if it fails if you spend all this and you blow out the deficit hoping to to stimulate and grow your way out of the economy and then you don't get the growth >> well then you've just made the situation worse >> so I'm I'm I I don't know if any of this will get

into your story, but I want to stress that I'm not necessarily beating up on Trump. You know, I I'm not a hu I don't have a mega hat. I'm not a huge Trump fan, but if I had to choose with living under Trump or she or Putin, I'd choose Trump any day of the week. >> Me too. >> So, so don't get me wrong, but I mean this this transition, as you said, I it's hard for me to see it being painless. And even if the money helicopters smooth it all over and there's no recession or no real

significant you know broadbased recession you know not this rolling recession right or you know we've had a manufacturing recession and a transportation recession we had a commodity you know we've had these bits of recession but not >> an NBER recession like if the if the if the easy money smooths that over and then we get the growth >> you But if but if but if but until that happens I just think it's it's a mistake to say oh Trump's our guy we got to back him and ignore all the red flags right

>> um or you know just as much as it's a mistake to say oh I hate everything Trump is doing therefore everything is going to go down the tubes you know don't underestimate the power of those money helicopters. >> Absolutely. And like they say even a broke clock is right twice a day. So >> yeah. Yeah. So the the the long and short here is, you know, I I don't claim to know the future. You know this about me. I'm not in the prediction racket. I'm a due diligence guy.

>> What people pay me for >> is to kick the rocks on the projects and that they trust me. They trust me to tell them the truth. They trust me that the companies are not paying me to say, by the way, they don't even trust me to always be right. I'm fallible. >> Right? >> And I don't just mean about the predictions. I mean even about the companies. I I can make mistakes or I can think something looks bad and the stock goes up. That's not the promise. The promise is that it's independent

>> due diligence. It's not paid for by the companies. I work for my clients and I apply all my experience and my team, all of our accumulated experience to trying to get our clients the best possible information. So, you know, I don't know what what's going to happen and and therefore I hedge my bets. Sure, I take some profits. gives me cash to redeploy. >> Um, you know, I I I cost average my way into my positions because you never know what's going to happen next. >> Yeah, absolutely. Um, thank you so much

for your time and all of your great insights. It's always a pleasure to speak with you. >> Sure thing, George. I appreciate it. >> Thank you very much, Lobo. Have a great afternoon. >> Those were some great uranium market insights from Lobo Tigray. Thanks for tuning in. I'm Georgia Williams from the Investing News Network.