I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me are Kevin Wodssworth and Patrick Kareem of Northstarbadcharts.com. Thank you so much for being with me. Great to have you. >> Thanks for having us back on the show. It's It's been quite a while, hasn't it? >> Yes. Yes. It's great to have you both back. I was looking back before I came to the interview to see when we last spoke and it was almost exactly a year ago. So definitely we have a lot to go into and one of the concepts that we


talked about at the time was the capital rotation event idea and essentially you were showing that there were all these different boxes that had to be checked off before that was confirmed. So I thought we could start there get an update on what's going on. Have all of those boxes been checked off at this point? >> Okay. Do you want us to go through this um Pat? >> Yeah. Yeah. I can do. Okay. Right. Well, I've put my screen sharing on so that you can see what what I'm looking at


here. And what you're referring to there, Charlotte, is the capital rotation evidence. And when we spoke to you a year ago, uh not all of these boxes had turned red. Uh we first um sort of developed this matrix about 18 months ago now. Um and one by one, these boxes have gradually been turning red. what what what they represent is um whether the thing that's in them is in a bare market priced in gold or not. So you can work your way through them and look at them. We've got US money supply


there. We've got the US dollar index, got consumer prices, producer prices, currency in circulation, the equal weighted S&P, the New York composite index, the Dow Jones, the Wilshire, the Russell, the S&P, and the NASDAQ. So all of those now are in well-defined technical bare markets priced in gold. Uh now any one of these boxes can um turn red at any point in time and enter a bearish period priced in gold. But by using weight of evidence, what we start to develop is um a more comprehensive


and accurate picture of of what the heck it is that's going on at the moment. So, you know, why is crypto and Bitcoin plunging? Why is Bitcoin just fallen 50%. Why has crypto total market cap not made a new high priced in gold uh in this most recent bull cycle? It completely failed to do that for the for the first time ever. you know why is silver going bonkers? Why why are all these things happening? Well, it's all tied in with a rotation of capital and a capital rotation process. So, one thing


we need to make clear is this is a process that takes place and what um we refer to as capital rotation event can only really be seen with hindsight. you can only really say ah that was the event once it's kind of already pretty much um you know a lot of it has actually happened. It's something that you you can define and look at um with hindsight but the process that's taking place that leads to an event and the event is the stock market falling substantially and by substantially I


mean sort of I don't know 30% or more then that is the event and you can only sort of see that with hindsight and that's this has happened you know three times in the last 100 years and this is the fourth time so we can see what happened in the the example in 1929 1930 30. We know what gold and precious metals and commodities and energy and oil did. We know what happened in 1972 when it happened again. And we know what happened in in the early 2000s when it happened again. All these boxes turned


red. And what happened was in a nutshell the stock market went down, it went up, it went down, it went up, it did all sorts of things, but over a period of 10 plus years, it didn't go anywhere. So from the start of the event to the end of the gold bull era, the stock market went nowhere for 10, 15, 20, in the case of 1930 there, I think it took something like 24 years for the stock market to get back to where it was originally. And even in the early 2000s there, it took well over a decade for the stock market


to get back to where it was originally. So, however the stock market um difficulties present themselves, whether it's one huge plunge like it was in 1930 or whether it's a series of drops like it was in the 1970s that eventually culminated in a drop of 50%. you know h however that process unfolds it it's a case of the stock market really you know not not being particularly attractive for a period of 10 years whilst gold silver commodities energy and oil move up by hundreds and in some cases um


thousands of um of percent. So it's no surprise to see uh you know what's been going on with gold and you can see on the gold chart here uh precisely what happened and the the event of the 1970s is shown here on the left hand side um and the early 2000s event is also shown curiously from the ending of the Breton Woods agreement the move was about 645% which interestingly was um the same size as the move between the bottom and the top in the um in the in the bull bull market in the the early 2000s and um


just interesting to note that if you do some technical analysis on this using Fibonacci levels, 645% actually takes you to around about $8,000. So, it's going to be interesting to see just how we progress through this period towards $8,000 and um very possibly um beyond that. And in fact, there are many technical uh sort of techniques that give a target area well in excess of 15 $16,000 um something like let's say about 8 years from now. So we have to take it one stage at a time um one step at a


time and realize that both gold and this is a silver chart have had massive u sort of vertical moves just very recently. So, you know, you can't say that entering now is, you know, a perfect time to enter the market. If you weren't sort of following our guidance a year ago, 18 months ago, and you're you're just sort of um, you know, starting to listen now, then, you know, this isn't the best time to to take a position, particularly if you're trading or if you're a short-term investor,


because there's a risk um that you're going to find yourself in a in a loss-making position, at least temporarily. And in fact, you know, we moved up to $121 for silver and then all the way back down to somewhere like was it $64 or $67. So, you know, had you entered at $90 plus, you'd still be in a lossmaking position right now. So, you know, how you define an entry point is important and how you define whether you're a trader, an investor, or a stacker is is also important. You know,


your time frame is what I'm getting at. But clearly the importance of breaking out from a pattern that's been building massive cup and handle pattern that's been building over 45 or 46 years. This breakout here would suggest technically that this is just the beginning of a new era for um for the price of silver moving significantly higher in the years to come. And the weight of evidence suggests anything, you know, from $250 all the way up to $500 plus is, you know, is is a reasonable expectation


over a time frame of, let's say, well, 8 years as I, as I said before. So, you know, all of this is um part of the capital rotation process where gold will outperform the stock market. In fact, I didn't show you that chart, but um gold versus the S&P or gold versus the Dow Jones is, you know, in a bull market, you know, or or put it the other way around. The stock markets are in a bare market priced in gold. And that is the first sort of warning sign um Charlotte for um for what may be to come next


because um when everything is in a bare market priced in gold, it's telling you something about the underlying um macro forces in the underlying economy. I think that's a a really good overview to get us started. And you mentioned we've got to go step by step as we're looking at this. So when it comes to next steps that we're looking for, are we looking for that turnaround in the stock market as the next item to watch for or how are you seeing it? >> Can I take that on Pat?


>> Yeah. Well, exactly. So step one is the the weakness of the stock market versus gold. All those squares are that Kevin showed you, what they're telling you essentially is the equal weighted SPX, NASDAQ, they all track the same capital flows. It could have been just one big square which was the S&P or the US stock market versus gold, right? So now gold's in a bull market. So pretty much all those other assets which track each other. There could have been 20, 30, 40, 50 of those. It's pretty much US stocks


versus gold. So step one, US stocks, they roll over gold. So that's the chart. That's a Dow Jones Kevin is showing. So that's step one, the rollover, right? Lower highs from the 2000s. You know, the stock market has peaked pricing gold in back in the 2000s. Now it tried. It could have broken out there at that major resistance line that Kevin's drawn there, but it didn't. So that's us being objective, unbiased. If that breaks to the upside, Kevin and I say, "Hold on,


guys. The stock market, it's outperforming gold once again, and you should favor that instead of favoring uh, you know, gold." So that was step one. But now step two is when gold outperforms or even silver outperforms. I rather use silver than gold because silver back prior to 1970 was unpegged. So you have more granularity because you got to remember gold was pegged uh for long periods of time prior to 1970. So when you do a ratio chart of the Dow or S&P reconstitute that because I think even


the SPX didn't exist back then pricing gold essentially what you're looking at is the volatility in the US stock market and not really gold. So you have a ratio chart. It's telling you something, but it's not telling you the whole picture. So price in silver, price in gold. Step one is the stock market losing its ground versus silver. Then what comes after that is the stock market losing ground priced in fiat. And that's the underlying weakness right now that we see as gold's in a bull market. And


you'll see in the 70s 40s50s60s7s go uh 60s leading up to the the capital rotation back in the 70s silver was actually bottoming and went up with the stock market. people they always think ah silver is a the opposite you know because they look at short-term memory where stock market went crazy from 2010 all the way to uh 2020 and silver went the bare market but they forget that after the the the crash of 2020 20 19 um 1930 silver actually bottomed with the stock market they both rose up together except


the stock market was outperforming silver on the way up which is bullish for the stock market but in the late60s the stock market was starting to roll over versus silver and shortly after that it started having its multiple draw downs like uh Kevin said 30% 40% then another 30 40% and each and every single one of those drops in the S&P after it started rolling over versus silver or gold it's those are capital rotation events all of them it's just cuz right now we're focusing on the major capital


rotation event but you can make a case that even the the fall in 20 uh the the the fall in US equities back I think in 2022 that was a micro ninja capital rotation event and where that put a floor under gold and silver because all the destruction of purchasing power required to save those US equities of that draw down on the recovery side that helps fuel gold silver outperform and it puts it puts a floor on that. So, we've had those. Now, we're waiting for the the most the more important capital


rotation event, and it's those red lines there that Kevin's drawn. The the steeper the line is in TA Charlotte, the less important it is. So, it's important. It's a long rising uh support line, but because it's steep, that means if you fall, if you break it, you still have upwards momentum as defined by that steepness. The more and more slant the horizontal they are, the more important they are. So eventually you'll see that black line is going through there for SPX, price, and silver. We went through


that uh well that it's not really a line. It's a line, but in TA it's only meaningful if you have three reactions on it, but it's still telling you that you're not you're starting to lose that upwards momentum. And now eventually we're going to break down. Eventually we're going to break down from a less steep support line. And that will be the kibash there. That would be the the dev blow especially if it's accomp accompanied with the US equities market draw down. That is truly truly the key


of all this is you need a US equities uh draw down whether it be 20 30%. If you don't have that you don't have a true capital rotation event. you we're just in the process of it and but the next true leg up for silver gold of their true leg up of outperformance no matter what level they are when we have that roll over in the US equities they happen after so often people they confuse us like Patrick how come you're you're waiting for this capital rotation event there how come


you're not in silver well hold on we've been playing silver since that breakout back in uh what early 2024 quarterly breakout monthly breakout we've been in gold for forever or so you still play them price and fiat. All we're saying a capital rotation event guys, it's not something you wait for. It's something that tells you once you've had it, then the better years for gold and silver will happen after that. So that's I'll just I just want to add finish with this


little definition here. Bull market, guys. Bull market is when you go up in price in fiat. So if the S&P is in an uptrend above a three-year moving average, price in fiat, bull market. If gold's above a three-year inclining three-year moving average price in fiat, bull market. A bull era is when you're going up in a bull market price in fiat, but you're also going up priced in your competitive major asset class. So, if gold is up going up in uh fiat and going up priced in S&P shares or priced in Dow Jones


shares, now you could say it's in a bull era. And every single one of those capital rotation events you have after that or during the bull era, it's fuel to to launch it because you got to remember back in uh 2008, we had another capital rotation event, right? We had one in 2001 when the markets rolled over. Then we had another one in 2008 when the markets rolled over. And on the recovery side, guess what happened? Silver went bonkers. It outperformed practically everything. Gold went bonkers. Outperformed the stock market.


So that's what it means, guys. capital rotation event is these events to varying degrees and now we're going to wait for the huge huge one where especially it's probably going to be below that line there the the red the arrow that Kevin drew that's going to be what we call a super capital rotation event where it you're going to be breaking down from a 45 year rising support line it's like people don't how do you think we're going to get $500 $800 silver it's after that it's after that that we're


going to launch from $100 we're going to do 8x or 5x it's after that gold to be able to 4x probably after that go from 5,000 to 20,000. It's highly likely after that because imagine Charlotte all the lowering of rates, the money printing, the US debt acceleration, all that stuff that they're going to have to do to save the economy, all those stimulus plans, whatever they're doing now, they're going to have to do much more if the market rolls over cuz you got to remember those uh those US tax


receipts, right? All that money coming in, the those 401k plans, all that stuff. it's uh detrimental, you know, to the US uh safety or whatever. I think we had the we talked to Luke Groman recently and he kind of phrased it that way. He says it's a national security priority that if the stock market rolls over, they got to they got to print even if it's an illusion and they steal your wealth by, you know, doing it destruction of power, inflation, right? Just to keep it nominally afloat. Kevin,


can you do SPX price and CPI? I just want to show them that chart that how how much it lost in the 70s. So the US stock market went sideways in the 70s, right? Sideways. It didn't look that bad, but when you adjust it for inflation, it lost I think 80%. So let's do S&P price in the CPI. So we're not pricing it in something else that's in the not pricing against gold. Just a regular random inflation. And check this out. That should be a big big eye opener for your viewers. Drum roll. Drum roll, please.


Look, look at the 70s. Look, it went down from 67 when that thing 68 when it started rolling over and that's I think that's where we are now. We're in uh we're closer there. It lost I think 80% 60 65% it lost in uh price inflation. And look at it did in the 2000s again. So that is not the S&P losing price in gold price in another asset that's going up. This is just price inflation. And that's you don't want to you don't want to be in stocks when when they do that guys. Once we


lose that rising support line there, I'm sure Kevin's going to draw one soon. Once you lose that line, guys, it's you don't you don't you just don't want to be in stocks right there. You want to be not in the S&P, but there's other SPX. There's 11 sectors, guys. And some sectors which are underweight like basic materials, energy which are a small percentage will steal some of that capital from the tech from uh you know whatever the the ones that are highly ranked and it's just a rotation.


So there's still a long way to go before we get any type of confirmation of capital rotation event. You know the stock market that red line will only break not because CPI is going crazy. CPI you know it's not going to go up crazy fast. It's the volatility of the S&P which is going to make that crash and until we have a draw down the S&P then it's I guess it's steady as she goes there. But we are on borrow time because the S&P has already rolled over versus uh gold already rolled over


versus silver and my goodness you're letting me rant so much. I love it. It's I love a great rant like that but I'm running out of breath now so I might have to stop talking. >> Yeah. And just on talking about the stock market just you know to give some numbers to people priced in US dollars stock market's fine this is the S&P and the only sort of thing that you know this this is kind of a rising wedge pattern which anybody that's sort of familiar with technical analysis will be


aware that these rising wedges um when you get an upside breakout from them they can lead to very rapid upside uh it's kind of a meltup type thing. You know, we've seen it in gold and silver. We've seen these wedges forming on a variety of time frames in gold and silver. And people think, "Oh, rise and wedge, it's bearish. It means the price is going to break down." Well, not always by any means. Not always by any means. In a bull market, these rising wedges can be very aggressively uh


broken to the upside. And the technical analysis uh it doesn't tell you um with certainty whether it's going to break to the upside or the downside. But what it does tell you is when you can act. And if you get an upside breakout, then you can become even more bullish. And in this case, because I've colored the line orange there, what we can say is that any move below back below that orange line around about 6,770. And that's really going to start the alarm bells ringing because that kind of


opens up a path a pathway to the to the red support lines there, which you know comes in around about 5,800. So any any movement back below that orange line and what you're doing is you're undoing the technical breakout. And when you undo and unconfirm a technical breakout, then what you're saying is that that was a false breakout. And false breakouts very often um suggest a a significant downside move lies ahead. That green line is a clear resistance line. So above it above about 7,035


then that starts to open up an increased probability of a move to 8,000 or or more. So you know there's a there's a number of action points on this chart. One is crossing the green line, another is crossing the orange line and if god forbid we ever cross the 5,800 area, then um that opens up a target all the way down at somewhere around about 3 and a half thousand. So, you know, this is this is what's going to help us identify a capital rotation event in real time because should we go back below the


orange line, then a capital rotation event is quite possibly starting and if we cross the red lines, then we'll certainly be able to look back, I think, and say that was, you know, a significant capital rotation event. And it's on the recovery side of that once the stock market is, you know, getting significantly lower that you're likely to see precious metals, which no doubt will have been hit by this as well along with pretty much everything else, precious metals will really start to fly


out of the gate and and history teaches us that on the recovery side, particularly silver goes goes crazy. So should this fall significantly as per that red arrow there whether it's this year next year or or the year after then it's on the recovery from that as the stock market is trying to get back to where it was. So just literally getting back to where it was. It's during that period of time that silver will double and then it'll double again and then it'll double again and then it'll


double. So, you know, that's how you get from, you know, maybe $60, $70 silver if we've had a correction all the way up to hundreds of dollars. >> This is the direction I was hoping to go in. Maybe talking a little bit more about recent gold and silver price activity because we had at the end of January those big moves up and then the pretty big corrections for both gold and silver. And I think many people saw those as an opportunity, but there's also concern about what was going on.


And was this the end of the runs in the precious metals? So, as we're moving into this higher upward trend, do we just need to be ready for these types of corrections, a little bit of volatility along the way? How would you how would you put that to people who are watching what's going on? >> Yeah, I I'll share I'll share I'll I'll show you guys how we how we do it and how people could entire screen. So people have to figure out what time frame they're in this for because what I


hate to see is people that are coming into they want to make a quick bug. They're they're coming in as traders but then because there's a huge correction on the shorter time frame which applies to them and then there's a correction and then they're underwater right away and then they say ah finally you know what I'm going to keep it for longer term. It's a long-term uptrend and they they decided not to follow their game plan. I hate seeing that because that's like you're you don't change your game


plan like that because somebody forced your hand that means you did not respect your original game plan. So I just want to say that first. So now here's the monthly chart. So monthly chart is for you know trader not trader like yeah long longer term people who want to hold for many years. This is how stretch the bottom pain Charlotte is how stretched I am from that red line. Right. This is the the distance from the mean. Look how high we are. how stretched we are from the moving average 2011 top.


We got here we got the 1974 top and the only time we were able to distance oursel that much away from the moving average was we had a crazy after a small pause here maybe like we're having today we had another crazy melt up. So anybody buying right now they're kind of hoping for outlier territory. I don't know if you you guys are mathematical or you're scientific about that or most people are emotional. So, they they're hoping for an outlier event. That's what people are


hoping for. Anybody jumping in right here on that's on the sideline is hoping for this because if you're not hoping for that, then you're very close to a top here. You're very close. You know, we've done all these measured moves. Where's my copy thing there? Short uh bar patterns, right? This is the move we've done here. I copy that. Let me just stretch that a little bit. I just This is my Look, I've done it. This is like I've surpassed this move that we've done here. I've surpassed the move


we've done we've done back here. I've surpassed the 1970s move. Look in energy in energy out. I've surpassed that. The only one I haven't surpassed is a 1970s move. So, there's on the table you got a little bit more juice here left there, which is fine. So, if you're on the sidelines and you're looking at this chart, it is is just for me it's just mindboggling. Anybody that would just jump in here, it just for me it does not make sense at any moment. The time to get in was back


here on the breakout back in February, March of 2024, and that's it. If you missed that, you maybe had another opportunity here at $34, 35, but you you've 100% missed it. For anybody who's already in the trade, you have a couple of options here. If you're a classical TA guy, you've probably exited already because the measure moves from the uh from this pattern. Even if I take the greedy one, it's it's already been reached, guys. It's already we've surpassed the classical measure moves


from that that big pattern here. We we've missed we you u it's already been reached. If you're a trend follower, then you're fine because from trend following is as long as I'm above, let's say, the 12 month moving average, I don't care if there's huge correction. So that that 20 30% correction we had here from that peak all the way down here. From a trend following perspective on the monthly chart, a longer time frame, as long as I don't have a close below that 12-month moving average, it's


you're you're fine. You don't even care about, you know, every month you check, did I close below that 12-month moving average? No, I'm writing it a little bit here like the 2000s. Look at that run here. Barely closed. Here it closed below. Then it closed back above here. We're always above the 12-month moving average until you get that crazy candle. The trade-off is a classical TA guy will always always sell to strength and and will always feel wrong. Always people get mad at at you. Why are you selling


Patrick? There, you know, there's no because to selling to strength there's no weakness. You're selling at a high. The classical TA guy will always always always sell at a high. Always. because it's measure move targets. A guy who's a trend follower, well, he's going to have to wait for weakness. So, that's the problem with silver right now. If you don't sell into strength, you you might get a before you close below, you know, before you have evidence that the trend is really


halting or is not as bullish anymore, you might be down 20, 30, 40% before you get an exit. Right? So, that's the trade-off. People have to know what type of trader they're going to do before they enter the trade. And that's my biggest uh message I could put out to people. You got to figure it out before. But right now, when I look at the silver chart, even if it rockets up here, Charlotte, it's it's still not a good idea to to jump in on silver right now. I know people they they want to jump in. But


it's still from my perspective, you enter here, you enter here, you enter maybe here, but that was your last shot. You don't enter all the way up there halfway through or you could already be at the target before an important correction. Or you might have a little bit more juice or it could go run up. But it doesn't it just doesn't make sense, guys. You need these huge patterns. Like Kevin said, the odds once I got a breakout here, the o Let's say I put my sell stop here. Let's


say I bought on that breakout back here. I would put a sell stop here and my target, my measure move target is still it would be somewhere up here. Once you get a confirmed breakout, the odds of me getting triggered out there are much lower at the breakout line. I might get a retest of the breakout line, but for me to get triggered out, they're much lower here. Now I'm free floating in the air and that huge correction. I can't believe people haven't like they've forgotten about that. Anybody who bought


at 80, 90, 100, 120, they likely got triggered out in this thing there. This is a crazy drop there. People like, so you're more vulnerable for these crazy moves down. The higher up, the more stretch cuz got to remember everybody who bought here in the base, they're in profit taking zone now, right? A whole bunch of people here. Okay, I'm done. I did my 2x, I did my 3x, I I did my 4x. I'm out of there. It creates natural resistance. So, I don't want to take out too long, but guys,


you got to wait for these breakout patterns. These that's that's where you want to enter. I don't I refuse to jump on the bandwagon and tell people bye-bye by silver even if it's going up because I want to educate people. I not educate I don't want to be condescending. Another word I want to Kevin find another word there. I don't want to talk down to people, but we want to show people how did Kevin and I had high conviction that silver was going to rock it upwards because we've studied TA.


We've seen these huge patterns often launch these crazy moves and that was a time to get bullish when we broke out back then. Not now. I'm Yeah, of course silver's still an uptrend. I'm bullish in the sense I'm still an uptrend, but I'm way less bullish now than I was back then. And that's the message I want to tell people. Look for chart patterns that are exhibiting these two, threeear bases. buy those and then you'll be able to rock it upwards. Don't go in FOMO and


jumping halfway through a move or because it's rocketing upwards. There's no safety net. The safety net is much lower. We've had proof of that about like when we had that huge crash down. There's no safety net. Guys, just stay safe out there, please. I I don't want to get people upset. I know when I go down that road, people get mad at me. I'm We're still long-term bullish. We still have long-term positions in silver bullish on our website. Gold, we're still bullish. I'm just telling you if


you're on the sidelines this is not this is not the entry point there enemies of this well know what I what happened but it's the truth there's something there's something else as well you can say about that is that that that pattern that we broke out from with gold and silver that huge base there are other markets that you can look at now right now today that are doing exactly that so if you're wanting to get into an equivalent position that we did in silver when silver was $23 and


and gold was $1,800, then just look at the the opportunities across the commodity space. Look at energy and oil in particular. Um because those markets uh and those won't be the only ones over the next few years are presenting opportunities just like silver did and gold did. You know, these lowrisk, highreward opportunities. We're not saying that silver's, you know, we've already said silver has much higher targets, 250, 300, 500, whatever it happens to be. Gold, you know, 8,000 and


then quite possibly 12, 16,000, 20,000. They're all very plausible upside targets. And as again, as Pat said, you know, if you're trading it in a trend following sense, then you're just going to ride that trend and you're going to be bullish until that weakness takes you out of out of the position. But we're when we talk about lowrisk entry points, we're talking about an entry point where the next sort of significant correction is far less likely to see you in a significant loss-making position. Now,


of course, you know, had you taken a position in gold at $2,000, I think it broke out and then very briefly went back down to something like, you know, $1960 or something silly like that. And so technically, you could well have got triggered out on that. from a broader point of view of sort of initiating a position and and and building a position at $2,000, then that was a lowrisk entry point because price has moved, you know, at that point it's possible to say that, you know, there's a high likelihood now


of a very significant and accelerated upside move. And we've moved so far that when the next correction comes in, the chances of finding yourself in a loss-making position are far far lower, of course, than if you don't take your position until now. If you're entering now at sort of $5,000, then it's it's highly likely highly likely that the next correction is going to see you in a loss-making position. So, you've got to figure out, as Pat said, am I a trader? Am I investor? Am I a stucker? What's my


time frame? And and what's my framework? Because you know people will come to us and say Pat Kevin you know should I be jumping into gold and silver right now? You know when's a good entry point? Well there's no single answer to that. It depends on those things that I just mentioned. You know what's your time frame? What's your risk appetite? What are you trying to achieve? You know trading, investing, stacking. I do all you know all of those things. I don't just have one approach. I've got a what


I call a stacking position because I've got physical metals and it's not particularly easy to to buy and sell physical metals. So the only time I'm going to be selling those is, you know, right at the end of the gold ball era, you know, I'll I'll I'll I'll take the capital from that and rotate it into um into into stock markets most likely. But so that's that's a stacking position. And and in fact, true stackers, you know, I'm not even a true stacker because true stackers will just keep on


stacking throughout their lifetime for decades regardless of whether you're in a gold bull era or not. They won't even care if gold is going to go into a 10 or 20 year downtrend. stackers will just keep stacking and you know with a view to handing their metal over to the next generation. So that you know that's a that's a true stacker. So I can't really call myself that but certainly long-term investing. So getting all that fixed in your mind before you even start with all all of this stuff is really really


important. You know it's not to be taken lightly because otherwise the markets will separate you from your wealth. I think that makes very clear your approach there when it comes to gold and silver and I definitely want to make sure that we talk about the oil opportunity. It's one that I've started to hear mentioned more and more. I know you've both been tweeting about it and comparing it to silver kind of at that $25 level. So, that's pretty significant. So, can you can we take a


look at oil and maybe you can show me what the setup is looking like there for you? >> I'll show I'll show my screen there. This is a crud. I call it crud, Kevin. But it's a it's a thicker crud. It's It's probably for crude, right? For crude oil. Look at this thing, Charlotte. There. Look, remember that that chart I show we showed you on silver, right, at 24? That that beautiful consolidation. Well, guess what has been consolidating for since 2022. What is how many years is that?


Three. That's four years already, Kevin. My goodness. So almost four years now crude oil has been consolidating doing after a huge breakout here breakout explosion sideways move. And look at that. It's it hasn't quite broken out yet. This is the monthly chart guys. So you never frontr run a a possible breakout. But if you had an opportunity for something that's going to have less chances. So let's say that's my entry. I enter there. Let's say my sell stops here. And my target's probably going to


be all the way up here. Once we get a confirmed breakout here, a monthly close above maybe that dash line, the odds of me going all the way down there to my selltop are much lower than they are if well they're just much lower here. I'm more likely to maybe do a back test of this breakout line. And this is the p that's the the risk. The reward is this. So this is my risk. I might lose this there and then but my reward is a multiple of that. Two, three times higher. And that's an opportunity. And


we It's also not about just um lower risk entry, lower risk of getting triggered out. It's about higher reward. I I always forget to say it's it's always low. I say people, we're not low risk entry for silver. But what I'm trying to say also is we're not low risk entry, but we're also not at a high reward entry. So the low risk, high reward entries, they're right here out of a 2, threeear base. And whatever. And and look at the time it moved. Look at the angle of this green line there. It's


going to the chances are of us going to that target will be in the shortest amount of time. So if I do the number of length of time that I have to hold this to reach my target. Look at the angle of that energy in often energy out. You see it here on the way down. See energy down sideways move. It did not break to the upside. Look, look how fast it went. It went pretty much at the same speed that it did into that pattern, right? And then after that it did a repeat here. Here energy. Well, I'll do it from this


energy into the there. It went sideways and after that when it vomited to the downside, it went really fast. Look, red, red, red, red, red, red. So now it's the opposite. So that speed here, it's a well green or hollow candle means up. One red and month after month after month of green, that's what is likelier to happen. Once I close above that line, it's less emotional drainage. Month after month, most of the time you're closing green. You don't have to explain to your wife why why you're in a draw


down where you're losing money. You have none of that because most of the time it's just going to explode away after maybe the initial retest. It's just going to explode away from your initial sell stop. It's just beautiful. MMA mia like you know I wish that for everybody. Don't FOMO. Wait for those breakout levels. Put your alert. Go or join northstarbadshtarts.com. We got this covered. And that's for us a lowrisk highreward opportunity where you enter the chances of you entering a high rod


zone. what I call it returns over time is augmented, right? Who wants to stay 3 years, 5 years in in a play where you make gains, but you're not maximizing your time, right? Time is money. No, we don't we're not all going to live like else like the 5,000 years old there. Times I do use that analogy, you know, but you know what I mean. We we we can't People always say, "Oh, by the SPX, it went it goes up forever." Yeah, over 100 200 years. I agree with you, but my goodness, let's like if I'm 50 now, I I


don't want to wait 10 years for the stock market to recuperate. Let's say we enter a bare market and then I only start making gains when I'm 70 years old. Guys, look, those long long-term arguments are kind of nonsense in the sense that with charts, you're able to spot those turnarounds. And now for oil, the opportunity is right on your doorstep. I didn't mention Chevron, Exxon, like we we were in those like for the past few months. They they've rocketed upwards. they had crazy uh


bases, you know, consolidation patterns and they're all breaking out. They're all now they're probably starting to correct on the daily chart made. So folks might have an opportunity once those daily corrections end. But it's unfolding in front of our eyes and I'm happy you want to talk about this cuz I think we're the only ones. There's very few people out there that have their eyes on that. Oil could never go up. Drill, baby drill, whatever. You know, we're going to electric cars. Who cares?


Like I don't care about all that. I just care the price chart breaking out. Is it creating a lower risk, high reward opportunity? And that's all that matters. >> Well, and I was going to ask preferred vehicles for getting exposure to oil. So, it sounds like some of the larger names in the stocks work. Is there anything else you would mention on that note? >> Yeah, well, there are ETFs. I mean, things like XOP and XOM that are in the energy and oil sector. So, you know, there are a number of ETFs. just uh well


these days go on to chat GPT and say which ETFs can I get exposure to oil that's that's the way I do it because I'm no um guru on all the ETFs that are available and it depends a bit on which country you're in I'm in the UK you're in the states uh you know if you're in different European countries you have access to different ETFs and different uh different funds as well and some of them for example it's worth mentioning this I think here in the UK we can have self-invested pension plans which is a


bit like your 401ks in in the US. So you you know within those you will only have access to a predetermined set of instruments. So ask chat GPT AI whatever your AI tool of um preference is um and and and have a look at that you know and our our members will ask us questions about um about that sort of thing you know about what which ways they can play these these moves for oil and energy and so on. And we do the best that we can tell. We're not financial adviserss but what I'm saying is do your research.


There's lots of different ways he can play these moves with broad-based exposure in funds and ETFs or in individual stocks and shares like Shell and Exxon and you know all of these um all these oil and gas companies. So um >> yeah those are ETFs that track oil. It's crud, USL, USO or you know crude oil futures. Those are the ones you know that come to mind. They have different charts. They don't all perform the same, but those are the ones exhibiting those beautiful patterns that haven't broken


out yet for the oil. And Kevin's talking about al XLE, XOP, OIH, the oil service sector. Those stuff already has already like those things already on the move there. They they're carving out higher highs, but there going to be opportunities in those as they correct on the shorter time frames. There'll be a chance for people to jump on that. They're not super on the longer time frame. Remember that silver chart how stretched we were historically? Well, the oil plays are nowhere close being


stretched historically to anything. So they there's no profit taking to take in the oil sector yet because nobody's made that much enough money yet to take profits. So you that's how it works. You know once once you know we start having uh oil eyes, what is it going to be? It's going to be black eyes. Once we start doing that oil gushing out your eyeballs. Yeah. >> Right. Like once that starts happening then okay and we'll be stretched probably from the charts and then we'll


have a oil president you know whatever like once we start hearing that stuff again then okay fine we we'll rotate out but right now oil is totally undervalued versus S&P and it could keep getting undervalued but versus practically everything oil is is >> also bear in mind that oil stocks do not need oil to be going up for them to be going up. So, if you look at the historical charts, a lot of those oil plays will go into really good, you know, bull market um uptrends, even when oil isn't really doing anything in


particular at all. And not only that, but quite a lot of them are paying you dividends as well. So, you know, you're you're sitting in a stock that's in a nice bull market and paying you five, six, seven uh% dividends. So, um or even more in some cases. So, you know, it's a it's a win-win if you can position in some of these larger companies as well, uh, based on the technical chart breakouts. >> That's right. Oil, just a final thought on oil. Back in 2005 or six there, I I


had to recheck again. I did a tweet on that. Oil was, I think, 60 bucks or close to today's price. Silver was $5 or $10. Oil, gold was, I don't know, five, six, $800. I can't remember. Even probably less. And oil, uh, silver is like 2, three, four times that price. Gold is three, four, five times that price back in the 2004 or five area. Oil is still the same price as and people are scared of higher price oil prices. My goodness, inflation adjusted. Oil is dirt cheap. People have a thing, a psychology thing about oil


where they they refuse to accept that $100 oil breaks the economy. What are we talking about? It was 60 bucks back in 2004. Gold's 5,000. The economy is not broken. Silver's close to 100 bucks. People have to to stop putting them this these mental hurdles in their head because somebody keeps repeating it. Higher oil prices breaks everything. Goodness. It's not going to break anything, guys. Unless like we know the $500 oil like overnight. But >> it's like saying silver moving from $20


to $120 is going to make it impossible to to be making, you know, solar panels or or whatever it is. You know, silver's gone up by a factor of five. And you know, we're still using silver in just the same way that we were using silver before. Um, so and also just my final thought on oil is that it's important to understand that asset classes move together. So there really only kind of two main asset classes I suppose and those are the ones that follow stock markets and the ones that follow um gold


because you're either in a stock market bull era or if you're not you're in a gold bull era and if you're in a gold bull era you're also in a silver bull era a commodities bull era base metals soft commodities energy and oil not at exactly the same time but whilst gold is in that tent to 15-year run back in the 1930s,4s, back in the 1970s, back in the 2000s. During that that period, um, that's when the commodities each take it in turns to have their their time to to shine. So,


it could be platinum, palladium, you know, it could be copper, it could be I'm going to say aluminum, but over here it's alum aluminium, uh, steel, you know, all all these things, they all take their turn. Yeah, the English language, you know, it's kind of the one thing that divides us, isn't it? English people and Americans. Um, but yeah, you understand what I'm saying, you know. So, all all of these things move not in lock step, but they have their gold ball eras during the


same period of time. Sorry, they have their ball eras in the same period of time. >> So, commodities heading in this positive direction. And just before I let you go, I want to at least briefly touch on Bitcoin because I know it's another one that both of you have been posting about quite a bit lately. I I don't follow Bitcoin overly closely and our audience is much more on the precious metal side, but even I know the price has has really fallen. So, can you contextualize what you see coming for Bitcoin given


everything else that we've been talking about today? >> Yeah, sure. Well, I'll I'll I'll just quickly um give you an idea what uh what the capital rotation uh process has done to uh has done to Bitcoin. Um so, capital rotation has really been getting going properly over the last uh year or two. And it's interesting um that as I said before um priced in gold um the crypto market peaked about 5 years ago I think in 2021. Um now Bitcoin made a marginal new high priced in gold. Um but you know nothing


spectacular like on in previous cycles. And here you can see, you know, since the couple rotation processes really got going, we've seen silver up a couple of hundred% and gold about 100%. The S&P about 16%. And you've got altcoins and Bitcoin down 25 30%. So, and of course, Bitcoin overall has now fallen 50% from from its uh from its bull market highs. Um if you look at Bitcoin just um in terms of its own price chart in in US dollars um here here we've actually got the monthly chart. Um quite quite a lot


of the time we've been using the weekly um candle chart or the weekly line chart for Bitcoin. But now that we've got you know several years of price history, we can start getting um some important signals from the monthly price chart. And it's very um clear to see that any move below about 60,000 for Bitcoin is going to be pretty catastrophic from its technical chart um structure, shall we say? Um because we've got well one way of putting it is this. When you when we have a bull market high and then


a bare market low followed by the next bull market high when you get the bare market low on a monthly closing basis it's never been lower than the previous bull market high. So every bare market low on the monthly chart has been higher than the uh bull market high. So, we'll be breaking a a structural pattern if we fall below this $60,000 area where I've got these double red lines. We start falling down to, let's say, $50,000, 45,000, 40,000, a lot of the models for Bitcoin, including um the power law


model and um various others, but particularly the power law will be broken to the downside. I think the power law >> power law I I heard that Kevin >> it's it's you don't really want to know it's just basically it's basically on the assumption that Bitcoin is always going to be putting in higher lows because if you start putting in lower lows per cycle then it's it's out of the window and I I don't see any particular reason why you should just assume that


Bitcoin is going to forever make higher lows and follow the power law forever. uh and and and you know people in the crypto space seem to have completely forgotten what happened before crypto and bitcoin existed. They seem to be completely unaware that there are historical periods when stock markets are in a bull cycle and historical periods when gold and commodities are in a bull cycle. and they still seem to be unaware that we've we transitioned from the stock market uh dominating era into a gold dominant


era. And as I said before, we have asset classes and Bitcoin is going to fall either in the asset class for commodities and gold or it's going to fall in the asset class of um of stock markets, you know. And so thus far, Bitcoin priced in gold has been mirroring um NASDAQ priced in gold, which is an indicator that, you know, Bitcoin isn't in in in the gold asset class, which then leads us, you know, onto the next deduction, which is that, you know, if we are in a gold bull era, then Bitcoin may very


well not benefit from that. So this is what we were saying a year ago as Bitcoin was around about 120,000. We pointed out the fact that Bitcoin versus gold and I've got the Bitcoin. In fact, I'll just give you the Bitcoin priced in gold chart. Uh Bitcoin priced in gold uh was breaking down. Um let me just uh pull that chart up for you versus XUSD. Um here we go. So, this is the bit this is the Bitcoin gold chart. and back here in um early 2025 and then in the middle part of last year um we would what you know we were


spotting this weakness for Bitcoin priced in gold and identify that if it didn't break out above that sort of area where the black dotted line is then something strange was happening because in every previous Bitcoin bull market bull cycle you break out above the previous bull market high and Bitcoin completely destroys gold. I mean, look here in this bull cycle, there's the previous bull market high and Bitcoin in its bull market completely destroyed gold. And in the first cycle, it totally


obliterated gold. But when you zoom out and you look at the whole thing, to my eye, I mean, not to the eye of a of um a Bitcoin maxi, of course, but to my eye, that's a that's showing decay. We've got massive gains, less massive gains, smaller gains, and then no gain really. No gain here from cycled high to cycle high. And so that's somewhat suggestive that as the next couple of cycles come in, we may start to put in lower highs and lower lows for Bitcoin versus uh for Bitcoin versus gold. That certainly


raises that possibility. So you know, long story short, you know, bit all of Bitcoin uh bull markets occur when the price of Bitcoin is above its 50we moving average. Last time I looked, the 50we moving average was somewhere around 96,000 or something like that. Um, and all of Bitcoin's bare markets occur below the 50we moving average. So, at the very least, what you can say is that, you know, until we get back above the 50we moving average for Bitcoin, you know, there's not really much point


being particularly long-term bullish. Um, I think there's quite a long way further to go, but I mean, Bitcoin should bounce here. It needs to needs to bounce at 60,000 and perhaps go up to 75, 80, even sort of 85,000. we we should get a good a good bounce here, but until we get back above that 50we moving average, I would view it as a bare market rally rather than um you know a new bull market that's developed. So using gold as a measuring stick in a gold bull era really helps give us an


insight into how an asset is performing whether it's the S&P or the NASDAQ or Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency or whatever. Pricing it in gold is far more useful than pricing it in dollars because we know that the dollar is losing purchasing power rapidly along with all fiat currencies. So pricing things in gold. It gives a it gives a completely different perspective. And for example, you know, tech stocks, you know, look at look at the tech sector of the S&P. You know, you might look at


some of these tech stocks and think, oh, okay, they're doing all right. Nvidia is doing okay. You know, hasn't hasn't broken down badly yet. You put all of these tech stocks together, XLK, which is the tech stock um portion of the S&P 500, it's in a deep bare market priced in gold, is is in a complete bare falling something like off the top of my head, you know, sort of 50% or something. So tech, you know, tech stocks and the tech sector is in a deep bare market priced in gold. You wouldn't


you wouldn't know that if you weren't looking at the the ratio uh versus gold. Well, and I think that takes us kind of in a full circle. So, makes it a nice place to wrap up, I think. Thank you so much for for both coming on. This was really good. >> Thanks for having us on, Charlotte. I appreciate it. And hope your audience enjoys it. >> I love it. You let me rant it. It's awesome. I'm there. I'm just having fun expressing myself. And hopefully there's value. Like, I'm sure, look, guys, write


in the comments there if you have questions there. We sometimes check that out there on YouTube. But guys, please, it's like, you know, stay safe, be objective, unbiased. It's tough, but you know, charts, they'll help you uh understand there where it's time to to go and time to to exit. >> Yeah. Yeah. Amazing. Well, thank you so much. I do love a good rant, and for now, I'll let you go. Once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com, and this is Kevin and Patrick from


northstarbadcharts.com. Thank you for watching. If you like this video, make sure you hit the like button and subscribe to our channel. We'd also love to hear your thoughts, so leave us a comment below.