Hello everyone, welcome to Bald Guy Money. And I want to start this video off by addressing the fact that a lot of people are anxious about what's happening between Israel and Iran right now. And nothing I am about to say should be interpreted as being insensitive of that fact. But once again, the market is giving us clues as to what it thinks the real safe haven is in 2025. And by judging by the numbers, it is not the US dollar anymore. It is gold. Now, this just builds on an observation I brought to your attention


last week when I showed you all how gold was the only major asset to go up as the stock market corrected between February and April of this year. And that includes, by the way, the US dollar, which fell over the very same period, which despite Friday's move to risk off assets, a shift that usually causes the dollar to move up significantly or spike on the DXY dollar index, the dollar finished at its lowest weekly close on that DXY dollar index since March 2022 due to what I would call a muted


response from investors. And in a week where gold was officially crowned as the number two global reserve asset after the US dollar of course growing to about 20% of total global reserves. It's important that people who are concerned about their financial futures and financial safety pay careful attention to what is going on because the financial media is once again spreading doubt about the sustainability of gold prices at current levels. But today's video is intended to squash those doubts. And what I intend on doing in


this video is to explain to you all why gold and silver are not yet at some magical market high destined to fall from here. Starting with a look at the supply of gold and silver compared to total money supply, which David Morgan said in my midweek video, if you happen to catch that one, shows gold and silver are arguably cheaper than ever. Once that's covered, I want to touch on how geopolitical risks are impacting gold and silver, including some talk about short-term targets for gold, considering


Friday's events, of course, which happened in the Middle East. And we'll finish this video by talking about silver's price and just how sustainable this breakout above $35 per ounce for silver is. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to visit summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust, including 5 ounces of silver at spot when you use code new customer at checkout. Okay, so diving in and we start with a topic that was touched on in my midweek video with


David Morgan, which is how gold and silver are arguably cheaper today when we factor in total M2 money supply than they've ever been. Now, I'm not going to make the argument that gold is, for example, cheaper than it was in 1990 because based on updated affordability data, it's simply not true. Because a typical American household in 1990 saving in gold could realistically save throughout the course of a year about 7 o of gold. Whereas, when we factor in the latest personal savings rate versus


median household income, a typical American household can barely save more than one ounce of gold today. And we have to factor in affordability when assessing if something is cheap or not. But that doesn't mean David was wrong about what he said. Because the point he was trying to make is that there is more M2 funny money supply today versus ounces of gold and silver that exists today than there ever has been in history. And as you can see here, where there were only $455 in funny money per ounce of gold in 1980


and $233 in funny money per ounce of silver in 1980. And that's based on total supply from the Royal Mint data that factors in silver usage over time. There are now about $10,500 for every 1 ounce of gold in existence. And shockingly, about $4,200 per every 1 ounce of silver that's in existence today. And it's precisely that growth of money supply driven by low interest rates and outofc control government spending that is driving metals prices up right now. And if you're betting on that trend of low


interest rates and government spending to continue from here, then you're likely betting on gold and silver to continue moving up from here. Because this past week with the major escalation between Israel and Iran, which threatens, by the way, a major regional war and the possible participation of the United States in that war, which I know my America First viewers will not want to hear that, but it is a real possibility. The risks associated with US debt as well as the risks to global supply chain just got a lot bigger. And


it's a topic many of you asked me to cover on Friday as it relates to metals performance over the short term as well as the long term. Because if metals are a hedge against risk, the question is what happens next? Now, just before we carry on, if it's one thing I know people in the metals community place a high value on other than gold and silver, it's their privacy. And that's where the sponsor of this video, Incogn. In an increasingly digital world, it has become difficult to maintain control


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best one, you can just point to anywhere on the web where your data shows up and submit it to incogn. So go to incogn.com/bgmoney. Link to that is in the pinned comment below as well as the video description and get 60% off of a service that I think anyone who is concerned about their privacy will find useful. So, with another war brewing in the Middle East, the market is predictably seeking safety and precious metals, specifically gold. And for those of you who have been watching me since March of last year,


you may recognize this table where I told you all to buy gold after some serious war escalations happened back in March 2024, which was accompanied by a price target that we hit almost exactly within 2 weeks, within the time frame that I said we would. Now, I think this model, the one that I presented back in March 2024, is still a very good model upon which we can build our assumptions for what will happen over the next 2 to 3 weeks for gold with a major caveat. And the caveat is the last escalation I


covered in March 2024 happened during a weekend. And that 7 12% gain that we saw for gold in the two weeks following that event was from a market point of view of we don't have this risk priced in at all. We have to fully price it in. Which isn't entirely the case this time around because if you remember Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire back on October 1st, 2024. So, what happened on Friday, at least in part, has already been priced in, especially with all the threats they've been exchanging between


each other lately. On top of that, the market was still open on Friday when this new major escalation happened, leading gold to a strong finish, ending the week up 3.7% and leaving a retest of the $3,500 level as the best thing we should expect in my opinion over the short term while price continues to move sideways or consolidate for a little while longer. And although I'm not telling you to rush out and buy gold this time around at a weekly all-time high close, I will say that any escalation between Iran and Israel,


specifically another strike by Iran on Israel, would likely result in gold finishing the riskoff move I mentioned, bringing gold price to as high as $3,567. So, just shy of 4% up from here. And we probably would hit that level by at least July 4th. But this is not an emergency I think anyone needs to go out and scrape funds together in order to purchase gold for. But it definitely warrants remaining on a regular purchase schedule from here. Looking for openings. And listen to this part very carefully. looking for openings after


the Fed's announcement on June 18th or the end of the month should we see some deescalation between Israel and Iran mediated hopefully by the United States which I am still hopeful we will see and will put President Trump's commitment to peace to the test. So that's the short term of things. But coming back to this image here, one thing is becoming brutally clear when it comes to conflict and war in 2025. And that is proxy wars between big nations fought in other countries are becoming the norm as


China, Russia, and the USA jockey to assert their dominance around the world. And these conflicts, apart from the massive human toll they have, cost an enormous amount of money and they disrupt regular business operations, whether it's due to limits on rare earth mineral exports or a rising oil price. And the market today at least acts as if it's business as usual, but it's hardly business as usual. So when we hear things about gold demand falling and gold price topping out from the mainstream financial media,


which is an institution that makes money by selling stocks and crypto to the masses, so to people like you watching this video, what I want you to do is to just think twice about it. If you're a veteran to precious metals and you've been stacking gold and silver for a long time, that means consider holding on for a little while longer as the market looks to be full of risk right now and all indicators still point to further moves up for both gold and silver. And if you're new to precious metals, a new


stacker of either gold or silver, don't let those stories from the mainstream media discourage you from getting on a schedule and starting to save in gold and silver right now. You don't have to go allin. In fact, I say don't go allin, but have enough to make sure you're protected in case the war and the wars that are happening around the world come to you or the currency you use collapses as a result of the debt needed to pay for it. So, with that covered, it's now time for this video's viewer question.


And please remember, I answer one viewer question in every single video I do. Don't be shy to drop your question in the comment section right now. You never know, I may pick yours to appear in the next video. And this one comes from a viewer named Christopher Hayes. Hello, Christopher. And what Christopher would like to know is if the move up we're seeing on silver is short-term or could it lead to something bigger and how does a market crash possibly impact that? So, we start from the first part of the


question, which was, is this just a short-term move for silver? Well, here is a chart showing the average price of silver each year since 1990 to 2025. So, no cherry-picking here. No cherry-picking of the highs or the lows in order to suit a narrative. This is just the average price for silver per year. And when we look at this, you can see that silver is in an uptrend since 2019. And yes, it paused in 2022 and 2023 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. But if this data is telling us anything, it's that we're in


the sixth year of a major reversal for silver and there's nothing short-term about this move. Now, the second part of the question was, could this be the start of something bigger for silver? Well, just as growth in silver price paused in 2022 and 2023 due to interest rates going higher, the opposite usually happens when rates go down. Because if money is cheap to borrow, that has positive consequences on industrial demand for silver, especially if lower rates are tied to stimulus, like we're


seeing in China right now. And it also encourages investment demand because as inflation starts to run higher than interest rates, people seek alternatives to cash like metals, like gold and silver. Now, the Fed's plan, as you can see here on the screen, along with other central banks around the world, is lower interest rates. And what you're looking at on the screen right here is the CME Fed Watch to tool showing that the Federal Reserve expects to lower rates considerably, I would say, between now


and the end of 2026. Now, I'm inclined to say that the Federal Reserve is going to lower its target interest rate much faster and much more aggressively than that image I just showed you suggests. But no matter what they decide to do and how or how quickly they decide to do it, the direction is known. The direction is for lower interest rates. And as rates come down, stimulating borrowing, the money supply grows and the value of each dollar in existence goes down relative to things that are priced in dollars


like silver, like gold. and recent weakness in the DXY dollar index is the market anticipating more of that dollar weakness in the future leading us to a situation where we start seeing silver make new highs in US dollar terms just as we've already seen this year in Australian dollars in Canadian dollars in Japanese yen and silver is now testing its all-time highs from 2011 in both euros and British pounds right now and what that does is it will bring first silver to $50 an ounce, which would be a new all-time high, and


eventually beyond to my $60 target in 2026. And the only thing that can stop this from happening is the Federal Reserve themselves deciding that higher interest rates are needed. And although I think everybody who's watching this video right now should assess the chances of that happening on their own, as far as I'm concerned, the chances of that happening are absolutely zero. And it's why I am so confident in the continuation of this breakout for silver. But what about this dreaded


market crash? Or maybe some are not dreading it. Maybe some people are counting on it. the one that everyone thinks they're going to buy and they're going to buy silver very cheaply for when it happens. Well, let me start by showing these numbers which I've updated versus last week's video to say if we've learned anything from February to April when the S&P 500 corrected and from Friday's market action as Israel and Iran traded blows, it's that metals are perceived as the safe haven right now.


And if we see corrections in their price, which if the market totally crashes, we certainly will see some corrections. They will be short-lived opportunities to buy. If, and I'm, and I'm really stressing the word if here, if you're even able to buy them, considering the speed at which they recover and seller premiums. So instead of focusing on what can go wrong, which is something I know people in the gold and silver space tend to do, it's I suppose what attracted us to precious


metals in the first place. Now is the time for us to really focus on all the things that can go right and the things that are already going right that have proven we were correct to purchase gold and silver in the first place. And if I can shift to gold for a second, with central banks officially having bought again in May, they bought more gold in May, albeit at a slightly slower pace, but they bought more. They are still sending a clear message. And that message is the US dollar and the global


debt market are risks they are hedging against. They are buying metals, in this case, gold, because that's what central banks do. they buy gold, but they're dumping paper currency to get it. And if the lowest daily close for gold in May was $3,188 per ounce, these central banks that are buying gold value it at least that much. And it should be a clear sign not only to gold stackers, but for silver stackers as well as to which direction the wind is blowing in. And it's blowing away from fiat currency. So, as we wrap


this video up, I have two housekeeping announcements to make in this video about things that are happening on the channel with respect to ads and with respect to platinum. Now, I'm going to touch on the YouTube ads topic first. Some of you have been complaining about the amount of ads in YouTube videos lately, and I completely understand you. Believe me, I am a viewer of YouTube videos as well. But it's not only on my channel and it's not at all because this is something I have decided to do with


my channel. What you have to understand is that Google has had more than 50% of its revenue as a company coming from search for the past many years. Now their search business is in I would say peril. It's in jeopardy due to AI. A lot of people instead of searching on Google are simply asking AI for the answers. And Google doesn't have a clear monopoly in AI like they did in search. So they're losing a lot of revenue from the search business as a result. And they are trying to make it up in other places


by forcing tons of ads in uh in in YouTube videos, forcing you to watch them to keep that that advertising revenue coming in. And I apologize for that. But I just want you all to know that I have absolutely no control over it. Okay, that's the first topic. And the second topic is about platinum. I have been getting some comments lately about being wrong on platinum. And what I want to urge everybody who is watching this right now is to please be sure to watch each and every video I put out. I


only put out usually one video a week. It's not that much to ask for, but I put out a video back in 2022 saying I was bearish on platinum, and I remained bearish on platinum all the way up until 2024. And those of you who watch all of these videos, you'll know that perfectly well. But earlier on this year, those of you once again who watch all of these videos will know that in a viewer question, I said my view on platinum had shifted. And I urged anybody who was holding platinum and considering to


purchase gold with it back when it was still under 1,000 an ounce to just wait and allow the breakout for platinum, which was showing in the charts, to happen to eventually switch for gold. Now, some people have mistakenly interpreted that as me still being bearish on platinum, and I'm not. I absolutely concede the fact that platinum is going to move up to the target that I gave was between $1,400 per ounce to $1,600 per ounce, which is a level I would, if I was a platinum holder, which I am not,


look to be getting out and switching it for gold and silver. So, those are the two points of housekeeping that I wanted to make in this video. I thank you all for watching, especially those of you who catch them all and watch all the way through. Thank you. Thank you very much. As I say at the end of all my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves and take care of each other. If you enjoyed this one, remember to leave a like, share it with those that you know who you think need to hear this


message, and I will see you all in the next video. Goodbye.