except time out however and this is where it got a little weird for me because I was looking at all of these factors there are numerous forces pushing inflation dramatically higher and there's other forces pushing it dramatically lower so I want to take a deep dive into this and show you all the factors there's a lot more than you think and we're going to add it up and I'll tell you which ones really matter which ones are really going to drive inflation over the next 6 months and


understand that there is no one thing that's going to override all the others but there are some that are less meaningful and some that are much more meaningful and then we'll add them all together and I'll tell you what that seems to mean for you based on the analysis and I think you should know it too when inflation is going to come down prices will come down things won't cost as much we'll see $10,000 gold and all the good stuff but when you see that that's not necessarily a good thing


because it could say something bad about what's going on with the entire globe and the world's economy and whatever way inflation goes is going to affect you directly you know that because it'll make the Federal Reserve adjust interest rates different ly when the interest rates are higher you're paying more in your credit cards auto loans Etc and you've heard of demand pull inflation this is just increased demand this is going to push inflation up this is when you see things like higher consumer


spending or government stimulus packages or really low unemployment and you know that we have all of those factors going on right now one of the biggest factors reducing inflation is when you see something like an economic recession which we do not have right now or when you see really high unemployment which we do not have right now or when you see a decrease in consumer confidence as it declines you're going to expect inflation to come down a bit as it increases at all fuel inflation another


factor that leads to Rising prices is cost push inflation that comes from things like Rising oil prices or increasing raw material costs commodity costs because the input into things that you build cost more and then you have to sell it for more some of cost push inflation includes higher wages and even supply chain disruptions remember we have a lot of those recently and we might have some more coming up too and I'll mention some of that in this video government policies can lower inflation


pretty significantly too if they're the right ones first you're going to want to see a reduction in government spending and you'll never see that just so you know I'm just being a realist but that would be anti-inflationary if they would reduce spending tax cuts will also bring inflation down as long as they're not offset by consumers responsive spending what I mean by that is if they lower tax rates and you save $2,000 most consumers myself included will take that $2,000 to go buy stuff with it so you're


cutting taxes so they pay less tax government gets less money but then most people will spend the money they saved because sometimes they don't have a choice because they got to heat their home and feed their kids other times they'll feel like it's free money just like when you got the pandemic support payments that wash through people like water expansionary monetary policy which is out of control right now over recent history especially the last few years that's really going to drive


inflation a lot higher too expansionary monetary policy includes things like monetary creation increased monetary Supply quantitative easing all these beautiful things that we're all going to be watching happen in the next 6 months cost reductions also bring inflation down things like falling oil or Energy prices or improved supply chain efficiency or declining raw material costs pretty standard stuff guys this is not complicated you get it now pay special attention to this section this about government policies that are going


to drive inflation higher increase government spending well yeah every politician will increase government spending until we [Applause] [Music] are things like increase government spending of course which you're going want to see with every political party for the rest of time until the entire system blows up or if there's higher tariffs on Imports put a pin in that we got to get back to that later because that's a part of the big summary at the end and new taxes or increased tax rates


can also be an inflationary Force there's often external shocks that have a major effect on inflation you saw this with the supply chain disruptions there's a whole bunch of loaded cargo ships just floating off the coast of LA to unload because they couldn't get to the port because of the whole thing that we all went through that I can't mention on this video and there can be a lot of external shocks that will really be inflationary things like natural disasters that affect production you see


this all the time with the tornadoes or hurricanes going through the Gulf of Mexico CU that's where they produce a lot of natural gas a lot of oil and then they have a lot of shutdowns or problems in the Hurricanes going through and you see oil prices respond to this all the time so all kinds of natural disasters can affect production volcanoes earthquakes another aspect of these external shocks is that there could be geopolitical tension disrupting trade so if there's a trade War that'll disrupt


the trade between those countries and that can lead to inflation and another massively inflationary force that we're not experiencing right now we have not experienced we' experienced the exact opposite of it anti-inflationary is the currency appreciation of depreciation if the US dollar is declining in value as I expect it to all through 2025 then that will cause All Imports to cost more because the US dollar is worth less not worthless worth less and so therefore you're paying more to bring things in to


build things to sell to people this is all just fueling inflation from every aspect all at once and there can be all sorts of market dynamics that drive up prices like for example speculation if everybody for example starts chasing one asset class say everyone's buying real estate or artwork and if they're all doing it at once because they're fearing of missing out that that kind of thing aggressive buying that's going to drive inflation higher because people are piling into something the same result happens with


Monopoly or oopy practices where if there was just one company and they had no competition prices would go higher inflation would go higher and as you'll see as we get into the anti-inflationary things a lot of competition means that prices will come down but also as we've been seeing and we're seeing now we've seen over the last many years an increased housing demand combined with a lack of availability is driving up prices of homes and that is inflationary structural factors drive up


inflation labor shortages striking workforces reduce productivity and technological changes that increase production costs and you might say Peter don't most technological changes especially lately reduce production costs absolutely we'll get into artificial intelligence and automation all the good stuff in this video too about anti-inflation and from the aspect of the global influences if commodity prices start rising and most prices start rising or if the US dollar declines in value the cost to bring


everything in cost more that's super inflationary especially because you'll see the inflation only once they put the product together to sell to you you'll see it when you're looking at the sticker price on the store shelf that's why everybody seems so surprised when you go shopping for stuff you go to buy a combo 4 from the drive-thru restaurant or you buy a sweater and you're just shocked at how much it costs nowadays and also if there's Rising Global demand for certain products or Services that's


going to put a lot of eyeballs and dollars and attention on that one thing it's going to cause more competition for it or cause the prices to rise contractionary monetary policy will bring inflation down as you're seeing playing out right now with Jerome Powell continually raising lowering interest rates playing around sandbox but but contractionary monetary policy involves higher interest rates and a decrease in the monetary Supply because the increase in monetary Supply is inflation when it decreases


that's deflation but here's the big one about lowering inflation increased technological advancements anything that increases productivity or reduces labor costs is dramatically anti-inflationary not good for people because they lose their jobs they don't get paid as much but it's really a boon for productivity and the company firing the people and replacing them with robots and Automation and artificial intelligence are going to do a lot better than the ones that hang on to their employees and


it's a sad thing it's a sad thing I don't agree with it but it is true and we are at an elbow or a turning of one of the most incredible things that the world's ever done even bigger than the internet is artificial intelligence artificial intelligence now is actually doing a better job than real humans and it doesn't sleep and it doesn't get tired and it doesn't stab you in the back or steal from your company I'm not saying that it doesn't eventually go bad in the long term


nuclear Wars who knows you guys have seen Terminator 2 that's just telling you how this is all going to play out and as an adjunct to what I said earlier when US dollar Falls in value the opposite is when it strengthens that's going to be a force against inflation things will cost less for you as an American because your dollar is stronger what that does is makes Imports cost less so then when you put everything together build the product that you're going to sell the total cost is less and


therefore you can make a profit by not putting as high of a price on it but the market dynamics are one that'll really affect inflation I'm talking about competition levels as competition increases prices come down a lot of companies will compete on price don't ever do that because then there's no bottom to your competition and you have to be better than everybody else because they all do the same thing everybody tries to get the lowest price lowest price I don't see that philosophy as a good way to run


a business I don't want to compete on price I want to compete on value and results quality when there's reduced speculation in certain markets such as oh I don't know real estate that will be anti-inflationary because the prices may come down because there people are trying to sell at lower prices they're taking lower bids or cutting their asking prices for example when there's a lot of speculators buying two three four multiple houses because they say houses always go up in value when they do that


that speculation will drive up inflation pretty markedly especially in the thing that you're talking about which is real estate and here's my favorite one of all is when there's over production which leads to lower prices in other words a blowout sale or an inventory glut or an over Supply when they've got too many cars I'm just telling you that one specifically because this is happening right now they have so many cars they're just giving incentives and discounts on the price and trying to get you behind


the wheel now is a great time to buy a car 6 months from now it'll be even better there's some pretty major Global influences that are beyond anything in America specifically or politics here when there's declining Global demand such as now because Germany's in recession Ireland's in recession Canada's in recession America is going to be in recession next recessions happening all over the world and China slowing down pretty significantly pretty quick they're having a lot of problems


there all of this is feeding into declining Global demand China for example buys a ton of stuff from Australia resources Metals livestock but as China's having a lot of economic trouble right now they're not buying as much to build as much it's not growing as fast they don't need as much iron ore or steel or anything and so all of a sudden Australia which was benefiting from selling things to China now isn't selling those anymore anti-inflationary when overall commodity prices decline in value that's also


anti-inflationary pretty- standard stuff you guys know exactly why and I'll put a pen in this one too cuz we're got to get back to it at the end of this video trade agreements reducing tariffs and import costs that could be anti-inflationary but we're doing the exact opposite right now though aren't we very inflationary would be tariffs on Goods coming into the country CU all of a sudden you're just paying 20% more because you're buying a product in America that was made somewhere else


so all of a sudden your prices just go up there's inflation but one of the massive things that people aren't really understanding these ice raids you're going to wipe out a whole bunch of the really lowest level Workforce there is even though nobody's complaining about their job being taken by a foreign worker is going to go and pick strawberries all day they won't do it someone else is doing it and they're like wait no you got to go where are the strawberries coming from when there's a


limitation a supply you're paying more you're competing for it more dollars chasing fewer Goods but the part that nobody's talking about that is so important the cost to deport all these illegal workers that are being talked about with these ice rates thousands of illegal workers the cost will be I've heard an estimate today over $40 billion just to temporarily feed and move and give Health Care to and find and pay for the enforcement officers who are going to be conducting the raids all


of this is super inflationary and it's going to take a tremendous amount of money which we don't have so then we have to go into the monetary creation thing that I said earlier was really inflationary and at the same time if you wipe out the whole section of the workforce the companies who are benefiting from those workers now either have less productivity which I told you in this video is really bad for inflation makes it go higher or they have to pay more workers more money and then they can't make as much of a profit


so it's bad for the business itself but put that in mind with also a tough border and just to be clear here I believe that a country needs to have a very strong border you don't go into another country unless you're allowed to go into it literally for every country not just America but a strong border keeps lowlevel illegal workers out which is a good thing but not for inflation and enough for the economy enough for the availability of goods for you the combination of the stronger border and


the ice raids and the monetary creation and the associated costs of evicting all these foreign workers illegal workers finding and evicting them not to mention the vacuum of Labor that leaves in its wake and the way it's going to affect you and the workers and the businesses and then add to that all these tariffs Plus plus what we haven't seen a lot of yet but it's all coming up now is the responses to the tariffs all of these combined will absolutely Drive inflation higher except time out however and this


is where it got a little weird for me because I was looking at all of these factors inflation in the next 6 months would be dramatically more pronounced if it were not for the absolutely most significant technological innovation ever that we will ever see artificial intelligence is such a massive Force driving inflation prices down to the ground weing out jobs which will then affect the economy and then eventually lead to dramatic inflation later but first is a really super strong anti-inflationary force it's going


around just putting everybody out of business and while I believe that all these technological innovations are going to and they are right now dramatically driving prices lower inflation lower I believe that it'll be in the longer term that that really comes to fruition I think that artificial intelligence is so new right now it might take a couple of years for people really used to it and realize what's really going on here what we're really dealing with people are thinking it's crazy to say it's bigger than the


internet the internet changed the entire world but artificial intelligence can build you an internet they can just decide to it's insane some of the stuff that the stuff's doing now if you're an investor right now F me at all I'm sure you're into some gold and silver mining companies but definitely get into uranium big time look at the stock pick I made yesterday last night as was an uranium company already up what 20% today I was going to buy myself forget that I'm going to wait I don't chase but


from all this gobble I'll sum it out for you really quickly shortterm inflation really going higher it's going to turn around and start creeping up and then there will be a pull lower always always every day every day just like with the oil Spike and fade video I told you that there's a force pulling oil prices down lower and then have a lot lower to go still and they once in a while will have a spike because something happened on a macroeconomic front the same thing's going to happen with inflation where


technological innovation which is gone absolutely logarithmic is really bringing inflation down fast marketly now except that it's now going to be offset and in my opinion you can have your own and no one can know for sure what's going to happen and I'm wrong plenty of the time this is not personalized trading advice but in my opinion based on all of this analysis I done now is that we'll have pretty significant inflation over the next 6 months to 18 months and therea inflation will just keep on dripping lower slowly


we launch a bunch of ice raids that might drive inflation higher and then slowly each day it comes back down because we get more and more efficient and more productive so it's A Tale of Two Worlds we got inflation to rise and then it'll eventually get pulled back down so what do you do about it you get invested in the right kinds of stocks that's for sure because especially with these lower PRC companies that are just getting started that have a small footprint a little market share and a proof concept


and they're going to start growing those kinds of companies when they're trading at a dollar $2 they can be dramatically profitable for years and years in the future you buy them now and you pay for your kids college and you guys won't believe this awesome upcoming video I have for you if you're a subscriber to the peer leads Channel this is the economic pivot point and you're going to be seeing this one next if you want have direct contact with me ask me anything you want ask me if your daughter should


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