gold news

 [music] I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and here today with me is Omar Aalis who writes the Gold Charts RS newsletter. Thank you so much for being here. Great to have you. >> Thank you. Good to be here. >> Really good to be with you once again. We're catching up at the New Orleans Investment Conference. I feel like this is usually where I see you every year and I wanted to start. We've made it almost to the end of day three and you have been you've been on a panel, you've

been out on the show floor. Can you talk to me about sentiment among the attendees? Any key takeaways so far? >> Well, the energy is great. You know, I think it's been a great event um in uh the many years that I've been coming to this event. You know, I think, you know, this is, you know, one of the ones that I've seen the best attendance or the strongest attendance. Um, you know, after the year that gold has had, I think it's very normal for everybody to be super bullish, super high on on gold

and silver. So, you know, the energy is great. And also, you know, it's it's funny, you know, I can tell it's been you can tell it's been a great year because in the uh in day one in the exhibit hall, Brian had a a carnival. So carnival people came in and I remember you know like uh like 20 years ago I came to like a conference here uh and they had a similar theme and uh it was kind of like related to the strength in gold and so you know that's also a telltale sign and it's been fun. The

energy has been great. >> Okay. So good energy. I I'm also noting a lot of positive sentiment around gold. How how are you feeling about the metal? There's a lot of talk about this run up that we've seen. We're in a bit of a pullback right now and I'm hearing a lot about how this is going to be a brief pullback then we'll resume the ride upward. How what are you seeing in terms of that? >> Well, um I I'm a little bit more skeptical. Uh you know, last year when

we sat down, you know, for this interview, you know, we were super bullish and you know, we were you know I was saying that you know like the risk really is you know to the upside and you know like it's more risky if you're not in this trade than if you were in the trade if you're not. I think this year that's not it's not that clear. you know it gold has risen you know nearly 100% in a year and you know after had a really good 20 24 year as well uh and you know like it is it is normal price

action at the end of a cycle but then also what happens at the end of the cycle is some consolidation and you know I wouldn't be surprised if we enter into some consolidation you know like we were chatting a little bit earlier and um you know one of the telltale signs for me is um the fact that the US dollar index is not really falling more uh you know we we've seen it weaken since the 2022 peak inversely proportionate to gold but in the more recent rise of gold to new highs we didn't see the dollar fall to

new lows and that tells me that the dollar has maybe a stronger base than what people are expecting and eventually that could put some downside pressure on the metals and you know and and maybe foster this uh consolidation. Yeah, I think that's it's good to take a look at that viewpoint and I do remember from last year and from previous conversations we've talked about how gold moves in these cycles and I think you were talking about a top in the cycle in 2026 2027. So is that maybe

remind us how the cycles look for you and is that still what you're looking for there? >> Yeah, totally. So the I I track gold in an 11-year cycle and you know dating back since you know 1970 and gold has had in all these years since 1970 three major cycles that are 11 year cycles from 1970 to 1980 or 1981 and then uh from 2000 to 2011 2012 and then from 2015 till now. Um and um you know even though the 1980s rise was a lot more intense less intense in 2011 and has been a little bit less intense this time

um you know like the price action has been very similar. It has been a strong price action and then but usually at the 10th 11th year. Yes. Which it's going to be sometime between now and next year we usually see a peak and then a consolidation and then what has happened in the past that we see also then a decline. That is not necessarily the case. the fundamentals this time are stronger and it could be different this time. I mean, don't hang your hat on those four words, but it could be just

because the fundamentals are so strong and the and the narrative for a weaker dollar is so strong, too. Uh, but you know, like we got to follow the charts. We got to follow the technicals, the fundamentals, and you know, like uh and I'm following history because history rhymes, >> right? So, it this could this could be the top right now and then we consolidate and go lower or we could see another upward move. That's how you're you're seeing it right now. >> Yeah. Yeah. So, for example, like I see

like 3950 like where gold right now today, you know, is basically like holding after after a very weak price action in the miners today. Um, you know, like I I I I think gold could probably like, you know, like fall to about 3,600. It has very strong support there. You know, it's a very strong bull market support. And um, you know, um, I think it's almost a given that gold will consolidate and reach that level for me at least. Will it break below that level? It's harder to tell right now.

Um, you know, like again, if the fundamentals of the bull markets remain, which seems like they are, it could just bottom there and continue its, you know, magnificent rise. But if it breaks it, this could be the end of it also. >> And so you're you're watching the dollar to get signals on what could be coming. Any other signals that you're keeping an eye on right now in terms of what direction we might go there? >> Totally. for example, you know, like I I I feel that, you know, the price of gold

relative to like, you know, everything else is very high. And and when you look at charts throughout time and you see these these ratios or these relationships between say gold and copper or gold and silver or gold and crude oil, usually when they reach the levels that they are right now, that has been, you know, basically the catalyst for a reversal. And um you know, like will this time be different? Well, time will tell, right? we don't have a crystal ball but you know like again I'm in the side of history and I think that

you know like um because the consolidation has been normal I think like those other indicators are also telling me that maybe you know gold has risen a little bit too much for its own good at this point and you know now we need other metals to maybe catch up before you know gold could continue to to appreciate. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's so interesting because talking about ratios, I hear a lot about the gold silver ratio, how it's so high and that tells us that prices need to go further, but it could

also mean no, they need to go lower. >> Well, you know, for example, it could it could mean the the ratio basically means is that one stays stronger, one would be favored versus the other. And you know, it could be that yes, they both rise. It could be that they both rise, you know, continue to rise and then that would also make the ratio move lower if silver rises stronger. But also it could be that you know silver holds better than gold during a consolidation. Say if gold falls to 3600 and silver holds around 47

$48 for example. Why would that happen? Well, because industrial resources, you know, are are actually copper, you know, and um aluminum and the like, you know, are are are steel are are are due for like they have been rising already, but you know, I think they're due for a continued rise. And usuall y because silver is also an industrial metal, it also will move with industrial metals at some some times. So because we're going to because we are seeing like it is time for copper to shine, okay, in the

industrial metals, okay, that could tell me that that that that push could help keep silver stronger than gold moving forward. And that doesn't necessarily mean that gold is also going to rise. It just means that silver could just hold where it is. And silver does this, you know, like throughout history, if you see, silver has amazing up moves and down moves, but then also has also a lot of consolidation. And you know, we can't just get overly excited thinking that everything's going to shut shoot up to

the moon, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, this is this is very interesting because I've been asking people here at this conference. All right. So, how how should investors be positioning right now when it comes to gold and silver? And we've had a lot of talk of this is a buying opportunity, but for you, you're looking at it differently. So, how would you say investors in precious metals should position right now? >> Well, look, and this is and this is the first time I'm doing this since the 2022

lows. Okay? So it's not something that happens all the time, but right now what we've been doing is basically consolidating. I had a huge exposure to gold, huge. Like since last year, you know, we really doubled down and most of our portfolio was just basically gold, silver, and you know, the miners. Now I've cut that a lot. Um, you know, I I uh I'm consolidating on the bigger names, you know, the bigger senior producers that are more established that have no debt, they have a bunch of cash,

you know, um, and the intermediates. I've been kind of like, you know, con consolidating exposure in the juniors, the ones that are the strongest, the ones that did the best for me, but I'm trying to but I am like letting go some of the other more speculative side of that trade and so not eliminating my exposure altogether because again, yes, it could go up, but but I have cut, you know, like at least a third of my holdings in in gold. And right now I have cash, but I'm redeploying into

other areas that I think are very cheap. for example, like copper, for example, like energy, you know, some of these like very boring energy companies are like, you know, Chevron, the Exxons, super cheap, you know, and they get, you know, and, you know, they're giving like great dividends and, you know, I think like that's there's something to be said about that. Same with the copper producers, you know, like there's a lot of copper copper companies in here that are great, you know, and and I think

they offer a lot and, you know, like I would be more looking into those companies to rotate out of a little bit, again, not completely, but rotate out of precious metals and into more the industrial resources including silver. >> Okay. And so for on the energy side, you said you're looking at the big names there. Is that the same for copper? Are you looking at the big producers or more like the the smaller companies we've got over there? Well, you know, it's interesting because this year really

what has been producing from the on the on the re industrial resources have been really the junior miners. It's interesting the big the big miners, the BHPs, the Freeport Bag Morans, you know, they are stuck in the mud a little bit and uh they've had to deal with individualish things that happened within their minds and things that have affected of course, but but but their rebound, their rise has not been nearly as strong as the juniors. Um so, which is not neatly typical. you know, usually

when the move starts, usually with the with the more established companies and then, you know, speculation goes into the juniors, but um so so yeah, I mean I I have some of the strong companies also in copper, but I'm but I am concentrating more on the junior side of the coppers, the industrials. >> Well, and and maybe you can say more about your outlook for the copper price, what you're seeing in the charts, because I I feel like I've heard for a long time many people are bullish on

copper, but they're saying, "Well, it's going to be in the future. It's a long-term story." So what do you see coming? >> Well, no, I I mean I think the future is now, you know, and I do I do believe that, you know, like copper is is a is a transition metal, you know, like it's a it's a key metal for, you know, electrification for, you know, for for for our world today, you know, we definitely need copper, we need silver, we need a lot of these metals. Um, you

know, so um that's why I think like, you know, they're they're time is their time to shine. It's we're at that moment. Well, and similar question on the direction of oil prices because one thing I've heard come up a few times here is people talking about how rising oil prices could affect costs for miners. So, what are you expecting for oil? Well, so oil right now is at $60, you know, and um that's pretty much, you know, like the the cost of production, you know, and uh

and that's why one of the things that I really like about um you know, the energy companies is that, you know, as cheap as oil is right now, you know, like you have these big companies, super profitable still, you know, like they have great balance sheets, they have, you know, they they hire very little debt, you know, they have great assets, they have great management, you know, proven and tested, they've been there. So I mean if you see the praise of oil break out a little bit and you know like

if it breaks out say $63 which is right there it could probably rise to about 76 which is its next strong resistance. And that that $10 the price alone you know could be super explosive even for the for the for the senior energy companies that have been so bummed out for the past three years. >> I think we've taken a pretty good look at what you're looking at in the commodity space. If if we take a step back, I think especially at this event, we hear a lot of concerns about the broader stock market and what could be

coming there. Do you look at that? What are you seeing coming there in terms of do we need to have a correction there as well? Something something bigger than that? >> Well, I mean, I think maybe pockets of the stock market, you know, I I I do believe for example, there are sections that are going to be strong, you know, like you know, for example, in with industrials. I think it's time for them to shine. you know going back to energy of course but you know I do believe for example like AI the AI hype you know

like I'm not saying anything new to you of course probably you've heard it from everybody but it it is what it is right and I think that that hype you know is going to take a toll and you know I think that initially initially you know the the the the knee-jerk reaction of of any pullback in AI you could bring down also like some uranium stocks some transitional metals initially I don't think that they will derail that bull market but you know it could scare some people way initially, but I think that's

that's the hype. You know, you have pockets, you know, like uh and AI and and and quantum I think are are two of those pockets that that that are just, you know, like um a lot of money like a lot of crazy money is being thrown at them. And you know when you see for example the past like you know when the internet when the internet happened you know like uh you know a lot of these a lot of companies back then laid the the groundwork so that we could have the connectivity and you know everything but

all most of those companies that laid that groundwork went belly up they never made money. They spent billions or maybe millions. It was a long long time ago. Now with with uh AI, it's the same thing, you know, like all these companies are throwing billions of dollars to this and it's like, well, is it really going to be, you know, are they really going to recover that money, you know, it's I think there's it's I think it's not such an easy answer. >> Well, and and talking a little bit more

about risk, you mentioned you've reminded me at the beginning of this conversation last year, the biggest risk for you was not to be involved in the precious metal space. So, if we look at right now, what do you think is the biggest risk for investors? not being in the energy space >> and would you extend that beyond so we mentioned oil would you extend that or sorry yeah we we mentioned oil would you extend that beyond >> yes totally I I think definitely uranium you know like even last year you know we

were we're bullish on uranium and it's had a great year and uh you know like I I I don't think that's over I think like uranium and nuclear energy has has a has has a lot of room in in in our society and and and I think it's going to continue to grow as a as a viable source for sure >> so yeah I I like uranium a lot and oil. >> Yeah. And I'll ask you, same for uranium. It's it's a little bit different because there aren't really a ton of large companies there. So for

you, what would be your favorite way to approach that? >> Well, so it all depends on on on your your your risk profile, right? and how much risk you want to you know but here there's you know like a lot of like the smaller producers that are in North America in the US because of what's going on worldwide geopolitically and you know this push that you know like well of course coming from from Trump in the US but you know different parts of the world where you know countries are starting to look back at their backyards

and saying like you know what we should produce this stuff let's not just depend on others to produce it let's we we should do it and I think that push is is is a there's a push towards um developing more energy in different ways. Crude oil, also uranium, there's going to be a lot of incentives for for these for for this. So, you're starting to see like some of the small companies that are that are based in the US that are going to be receiving, you know, these incentives and this love from the

government. I think that's a great opportunity. I mean, if you again, if you if you're more adverse to risk, then, you know, you might want to look into like an ETF that combines maybe like some of the bigger names with some of the newer names. Um, one of the companies that I really like, unfortunately, is not here in the in not lately, not this year, but it's NextG Energy. It's a Canadian company. Great great company. You know, they do things right and they're profitable and they're

amazing. They've done great for us. Um, but um but here we they say, what's it called? I was just looking at somebody here. I forget their name, but there's several several uranium companies here that are in the right jurisdiction, which is in North America, whether that's Canada or the US. Even though Canada and the US have their little thing, you know, I think that's just more short- term than anything. I mean, Canada and the US are will always be friends, right? >> Well, and you make the point about so

the US has decided we want to do this. The US government wants a lot of things right now going into critical minerals and and places like that. Is that a space you would consider critical minerals or you want to stick with with the energy side >> also? Totally. Absolutely. You know, I critical minerals I I I um I also talk to talk about them as transition minerals, right? because they are they are these metals that are is so important for you know for us to go you know to for society to do what it wants

to do with electrification with all different things but yeah so absolutely I I think the critical minerals you know like are part of this uh energy boom absolutely >> would you would you pull out any in particular that you're watching right now >> well so right now the the what I have is actually like um it's actually really nice ETF it's it's a product is SEM is the ticker and the reason I like it is because it has about 10 different companies that are all an important part

of this transition this energy transition with critical minerals right so they so there is there's there's nickel producers there's silver producers there's copper there's also uranium you know there's and there's others right so there's a there an ETF that encompasses like really good solid companies within North America that are that are producing you know or in the process of producing these critical minerals and you know it's It's like a basket because really there's not one

company that just produces everything, right? It's you kind of have to get a polarity if you really want to if you really want to like um um go into the space, you know, like uh you know, then be able to like get a get benefited from all the different, you know, subsectors and spaces, you know, you need to have like a basket more than more than just one or two companies, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. That's exactly why I asked because I think it can be a struggle to figure out which one do I choose because

there's so many different ways you can go. So, okay, that's a great way to to do it that people can look into. All right, as as we're getting toward the end here, I'll give you my fun question that I've been trying to ask everybody here, which is if we look at 2026, what would be your pick for top performing asset of the year? >> Okay, so um h it's a good question. Uh you know, I think something um something related in the uh in the industrial metal space with copper specifically. I

think like uh I think we could see copper you know usually in the cycles you know like uh after gold copper follows you know it's it you know it's just that's just the way that it is and um you know as and that that's could be as a rotation you know from safety more to industrial and um so I I see probably the the the bigger performers are going to be in that and also the energies the thing is that with the energy you know like there's obviously a very strong policy from the US to try to keep you

know energy price is low and you know like uh and and that could take a little bit longer than next year but um but say for the next two years within two years I think like the energy space is going to be really great but for next year I more imminent I think copper. >> Okay. All right. Well, we we'll be checking back with you next year when we're here I'm sure. [snorts] Any final thoughts you'd leave investors with before I I send you back out on the show floor? Well, I um next year come to the

Nurian Investment Conference, you know, like you'll definitely get like so much information like not only from the speakers, but you know, from the exhibitors themselves, you know, like what's going on in their industries, you know, like you get to know like a lot of these companies and and have more of a it's part of the due diligence that I think it's important just getting to know the people that are behind, you know, um and do your homework, you know, like I think like there's a lot of

really good recommendations from from from a lot of people, but you know, you got to do your own homework. work don't take anything you know for granted you know take a diversified approach to things we are in a moment where a lot of assets have risen a lot and we could be like a lot of people are saying I'm just not into that camp but a lot of people are thinking there could be like an everything bubble type of thing that could burst and you know so like you know be diversified you know take things

with with a grain of salt you know like uh do your homework >> well nice way to wrap up thank you so much for for coming on to talk great to have you >> my pleasure thank Thank you, Charlotte. >> Okay. And once again, I'm Charlotte Mloud with investingnews.com and this is Omar Aalis.