gold news

 we started there at this resistance that have has lasted for over uh decades now and uh we're very very close to a breakout in this chart uh this could happen any month really hi I've got a very special guest with me Tavi Costa from crestcatcapital.net and crestcat is c-r-e-s-c-a-t dot net Tommy how are you doing I'm great Mike how are you excellent you know I was looking at your uh newsletter from last month and uh it has this great uh silver chart that's showing that we could be in for a

massive breakout sometime soon at the very end of the presentation so I want to tell our viewers you got to stick around to the end for this one but uh you've got all of the charts from your last newsletter plus a few more uh that you've added to it you just showed me uh this presentation so why don't we run through this uh tell us about you know one of the things that um is in the newsletter it starts out with a very easy chart for the public to understand and it it's alarming so and it's

something that I've been uh warning about since they started raising rates at the fastest rate in history I mean I started talking about this about a year ago I was talking about how fast they were raising rates and showing year-over-year changes that had never been seen before percentage-wise so uh show us that first chart and tell us about it absolutely well this first chart is just looking at the interest payment on the federal debt which is think the chart itself has been going around more

recently in its surge in in cost of that that we're seeing in the US and other developed economies given the fact that yields are rising but more importantly is is starting to constrain other parts of the fiscal agenda meaning we're starting to see uh the the payment on the debt uh actually surpass some parts of the fiscal stimulus such as defense spending in this chart as you can see today is now lower than the interest payment and we haven't seen anything yet I mean this whole report uh really

describes this idea uh that if you just look at interest payment today relative to uh fiscal spending is only 10 percent of it so uh we're yet to see that surge to much higher levels as the debt matures and we see more of the debt getting rolled over at higher interest rates as we see more issuances of this debt problem that we're were seen in this fiscal dominance uh type of strategy across most of the developed economies in the world today and this is going to become you know more and more relevant over time and I'm

very concerned about the overall debt problem in the U.S so am I uh when this data set that you've got uh what date does that what month does this end on because this isn't like this month is this last month or the month before the month before that because by the end of 2023 I think we're going to be well over a trillion dollars absolutely I mean if just looking at this chart itself this is actually from June um if if we go back to a a chart that shows this chart for instance which is

going to be a big part of why that line is going to Surge even more is the debt maturity problem you know when you look at the debt itself about 45 of the debt so you're looking at here this chart is just looking at the maturity of the overall debt in the U.S and about 45 of the the debt in the US is going to mature there's nothing we can do about that and so they're going to have to reissue that debt because the government is not in a position where revenues are actually surpassing they're spending and

so as we see that that is likely to create uh further pressure uh on uh that red line which is uh the interest payment to go even further uh to the upside and so it is going to be a bigger problem uh we're going to have to be growing the economy at much higher levels than three percent of GDP just to pay down the debt uh and that is you know three percent is as of today so it's going to be significantly higher as we move along and so it is going to be quite uh you know a real issue that is

going to have implications on financial markets in general yes it is so let's move on to the next chart because you have a lot of uh what is going to impact the economy and the health of the economy here so okay twin deficits to GDP tell us about this well this is an account deficit and the fiscal deficit that's right that's right so you know we often look at just a physical deficit which is just what the government's spending relative to the revenues but it's also important to look

at the the site of of trade balance meaning exports versus Imports which is the current account Plus for an investment right Imports plus yeah okay yes although majority of the current account really is just Imports versus exports in which oil plays a big role into that we're selling or a strategic petroleum reserves uh in which majority of the selling has happened in the sour uh type of of crude which means we have to import more of those over time and it worsens the current account problems so

when you add both right now you can see that we're close to 12 percent of GDP in this twin deficit issue and it is as bad as it was you know during the global financial crisis at the very depth of the of those of that uh recession and I think more importantly although this is you know concerning from from a a perspective of the compounding of the debt problem that we're seeing while we're compounding this at basically 12 percent uh annual rate um more concerning is is how in this chart you can see the tech bust and the

global financial crisis in the pandemic recession well note that there is a trend we're doing higher or lower lows in this in this uh in this measurement in other words the twin deficits to GDP is worsening uh after uh you know progressively with recessions and so I think this is a structural problem uh we haven't even seen a recession we are already at the global financial crisis levels and I think this is very meaningful for the dollar for tangible assets financial markets in general so

uh you're probably going to see much lower levels in this right well uh yes it is a chronic problem you can see on this chart that it has never gone positive this is always in negative territory and uh you you can't do this unless you're the World's Reserve currency this is a privilege that uh this this constant being able to uh run the these current account deficits uh when a country that doesn't have the world's Reserve currency does this they end up with some big currency problem and basically going

bankrupt you know they go through a hyperinflation or they go through something like that there's a crisis it ends in a huge uh crisis and uh uh this is just very bad habits and to me I I think that everyone you know our politicians in Washington there's a few of them and I mean a few of them that you can count on your fingers the rest of them should be in jail uh this is a is treasonous to continue uh policies that support this and now they're undermining the uh the world Reserve currency status of the US dollar so

let's move on to the next chart and you can oh before that go back to that chart one one second it's interesting that even with the with the pandemic you can practically draw a trend line across the bottom of this uh and the fact that this is getting worse and worse um we're basically having a party uh at in the United States and it doesn't just end with a uh uh a um a hangover uh we don't realize that one of the guests has a bomb strapped underneath his vest this is going to end badly and I think

suddenly someday I mean look at the plunge that happened during the pandemic um uh I think that that someday there's something out there that's uh just going to kick off a cascading event because we keep on making our whole uh monetary system uh and financial system uh more and more fragile uh and it's going when we go to uh digital currency then it's completely Reliant there's single points of failure the internet power uh it it becomes very very very dangerous anyway let's move on to your next chart do you

have any other comments on that no I what I would say is today I think we're seeing quite a lot of uh Financial analysts and and supposedly experts saying that this is likely to play out very similar to 2011 when we had the downgrade as well uh from the from the standard ports in terms of the um the U.S uh creating uh credit agency and so forth and it was um it was concerning at the time but it was it's completely different what we're seeing today that the degree and magnitude of Treasury issuances uh the

size of the government itself the size of the treasury market and the fact that we're not seeing foreign holders of those treasuries meaning central banks from other places really being the buyers of those of those instruments and so that is you know it couldn't be more different uh even from a valuation perspective of the market as well so I think I think this is like likely to be much higher uh issue or much much more concerning problem uh than it was back in 2011. um I feel very strongly about

that um yeah but this chart is just you know a lot of people uh like to in the macro world like to look at fiscal impulse fiscal impulse just as the rate of change of of the government spending meaning how much is the government uh stimulating or trying to assimilate the economy and it's important to exclude uh the interest payments from from this measurement because obviously uh that is sort of the the nature of of that spending uh where we're seeing across defense our military uh expenditures

we're seeing also the Green Revolution social programs at the levels that we haven't seen in the past and so all those things are playing a role into uh this fiscal impulse that is now back up to about 15 of GDP uh or uh growth and you can see here that every time we've had that uh there was it was also occurring during the recessionary environment uh we're not in a recessionary environment yet for you know maybe we can see some some of that data is conflicting I can maybe argue

that we are in a contraction already in the U.S um but certainly not uh officially from a government standpoint which it doesn't really matter but we can see that you know Equity markets are not behaving like we're in a recession so I guess that's the the the the bottom line there um and the economy is is concerning I mean who is going to be buying all these treasuries at this levels of fiscal spending that we're seeing this is completely absurd um and you know again it ties back to

the tangible assets idea of owning uh instruments that are not being issued uh at the degrees that we're seeing in in the treasury side and uh but also it will create a lot of opportunities in structurally higher interest rates uh in the economy okay so let's move on to your next chart okay so this is one of the uh symptoms of what you were well one of the causes of what you were talking about so correct because the government like any other company if you're you know if you don't have uh you know you if you don't

have revenues you have to issue debt you either issue debt or Equity from a company perspective the government doesn't have the luxury of issuing equities so it has to issue debt and so we're seeing majority of that happen in the short term in instruments which is called the T bills um and uh and so 802 billion dollars uh is actually uh outdated number uh this number today is closer to 1.3 uh trillion dollars that we've had so far this year and uh majority of that people think it's just coming from uh short

term but it's not true um you know if you look at long-term maturity debt issuances uh it is it has been tremendous as well I mean 80s almost 90 billion dollars in the last two months we're yet to see what that amount was in a prior month and so you know I try to keep track of this data as close as I can uh and this is you know one reason when I hear a lot of analysts saying uh that the reason why 10-year yields are rising is because we're going to see a soft lending and the economy is

doing better that has nothing to do with that it's it's all to do with the flood of issuances of treasuries that were seen so this this chart just shows that right yes okay so long term you're talking 10 20 and 30-year uh Treasures right okay so what people don't realize about treasury issuance is that these are certificates of enslavement they have to extract taxes out of I mean I have no problem with corporate bonds a corporate bond is a company saying uh loan us your capital for a specific

period of time and we are going to work our asses off to create some great products that customers are going to want to buy and out of the profits from uh from basically making life better for everybody by helping GDP and everything out of those profits I'm going to pay you back uh when the government uh when P when you invest in a bond uh you are investing in the it's it's basically the slave trade you are investing in uh the government uh having uh you have to work it's like uh forcing

somebody to work uh with no compensation so you're forcing them to work for the benefits of somebody else for no compensation and and that is basically the definition of slavery I don't know any other word that I could use uh except uh slavery and uh you know I have a moral issue I would invest in bonds but I I just can't let myself do it because I see the world this way uh and uh it's it so this these long-term bonds that they are selling every day is not just enslaving you but this is 30 years

it's enslaving your children and potentially grandchildren that's right um and by the way you know this announcement by the government recently the the treasury Department uh which is in line with what you just said uh they're going to be issuing another 1.85 trillion dollars in addition to what they've already done this year in addition to as well the fact that they have to roll their current debt 45 that will be maturing in two years from now which was the one of the first charts I

showed um it is absurd um I don't know who is going to be the buyer of all this uh I think this chart just puts into perspective how much of that we're seeing uh in 2020 in the pink line it's just looking at the increases of federal debt per year um and we we saw obviously uh the economy was in lockdown and uh the government decided to essentially issue a tremendous amount of of U.S debt instruments uh and so we've had that government debt you know shooting up to levels we've never seen before World War

II levels really and uh 2023 is not too far it's going to be pretty close and so this is quite concerning yeah this is would be like the captain of the Titanic uh not taking evasive action but you know the Titanic glanced off the off the side of the iceberg if it had hit the iceberg head on it would have been even I mean it was a disaster either way but uh this is taking that Iceberg right in your sights and steering exactly towards it uh this is I believe criminal action by the uh people running the government

Congress the president uh everybody this is Criminal action yeah so uh that you know in the case like I was talking about corporate bonds versus uh sovereign debt uh the in in corporate bonds that was honest this is literally uh criminal action I can't remember where it was but there was this uh oh uh yeah it was on a YouTube channel at the back of a van painted a politician is somebody that will lay down your life for for their country so and that's what they're doing they're just uh they're betraying all of us at

this point yeah the future I mean we're going to have this short-term party it's going to be great I think the markets are going to go up for at least the next three months it could go into next year but then something really devastating and the thing is all of these charts that you're showing us with all of this Reckless spending doesn't take into account their response to whatever the next emergency is that they create that's right is the fact that you know if we looked at even fiscal spending

relative to unemployment rate right unemployment rate at record lows and seeing how much we're spending uh to stimulate the economy is just you know it's something unprecedented I mean we've never seen these levels of fiscal spending relative to unemployment rate being so low ever and so you know it's it's another Point as well to your idea correct well it's always the you know we're coming up to an election cycle here and so uh you just kicked the can down the road and it's the next guy's

problem but it the the energy is build compounding and building up from all of these actions over the years and this is going to come back to haunt us as something really bad so that's right yeah I'm going to jump into some some more stuff and you know feel free to uh change course here Mike but um one thing that is adding to the problem is the Federal Reserves policy in terms of their uh monetary policy regarding QT and we're seeing them actually not being the buyer of less Resort in fact we're

seeing them shrink their balance sheet to uh levels we haven't seen in the past and surprisingly when you look at the FED Holdings of treasury's year over year change right now uh we are at levels that we've had uh than having to reverse those Trends uh and so it is it is an interesting pattern throughout history but also completely unsustainable uh to see you know cost of that rising and the FED actually shrinking its balance sheet or in other words decreasing uh the percentage of Holdings of the U.S federal debt uh

which to me just seems like they're gonna have to uh restore that fundamental role of being the financier of that government debt at some point yeah well that comes with the next Crisis and you can uh bet that it the next Crisis they're going the amount of buying uh the green areas on this chart is probably going to far exceed and this chart reminds me of something I used to talk about as far as the global economy or the U.S economy at least a top that's spinning perfectly at first like you

start a new monetary system we go on uh Breton woods and then after a while there's a little wobble and another one and it's becoming unstable and they go on to another monetary system the global dollar standard and we're seeing uh that and the economy there's all this debt-based shuffling and selling off future work hours of the population uh is is what they're doing here and uh their response I think will uh be the on this chart you'r e going to see a spike in the green that's higher than anything

else previously uh when things start to really unravel yeah and keep in mind this chart isn't a year for your change which means a percentage change if we put this in dollar terms nominal terms this way wouldn't be in this in the screen at all right yeah it'd be way off the top of the chart and when we talk about you know this 2011 idea boy I mean we're nowhere close I mean this is you know if anything in terms of foreign Holdings of U.S treasuries as a percentage of the total debt you know we are in a 19-year

lows right now and uh we're not seeing central banks uh from other countries really come in and buy treasuries and uh this has to do with the geopolitical tensions we're seeing this has to do with the pressure from the amount of issues as we're seeing uh and this also has to do with their own debt problems that those economies are facing uh because they're also running their own uh fiscal dominance uh types of uh of of policies in their own countries and so um you know the the fact that we're

seeing central banks actually accumulate gold as a neutral asset it's such an important uh you know macro event uh or or macro development that is to me one of the most important certain ones when it comes to investing Capital today yeah yeah um this this is part of the dedolarization of the world uh people don't realize when when uh somebody talks about how many dollars China is holding or uh another kind of Japan or whatever uh they're not holding dollars they're holding treasuries

denominated in dollars yeah and uh and so this is a chart of that and uh it's it's a scary chart so okay so let's move on let's move on I'm gonna pass it on through those charts that are regarding more Equity markets so we can focus on other things this is a chart that to me it's just you know when I hear people saying economy is doing just fine this is right and local income tax receipts so the revenues uh from income taxes at state and local governments receive um and the year over year change of that

on the percentage basis is the second largest in history on a dollar base it is the largest in history although it doesn't look like it's it's actually it is the largest because I calculated this so but it's uh well not only that is the crisis has not happened yet the other two are the response to the crisis we're digging this pit really really deep before the bottom drops out that's just crazy it just it's insane um I think this chart is is relevant for many reasons as well regarding the

position that the US economy is in uh it's looking at the percentage of yield curving versions I always thought the percentage of inversions was interesting and a topic that uh you know fascinates me given the fact that it's something that is able to uh has predictive recessions in the past but from a portfolio management perspective it's very difficult because you get all the signals that it may take over a year or so for you to see a recession really unfolding and really a decline in equity

markets which is what matters for uh you know anybody who is managing a portfolio and so uh in 2018 I decided to create a measurement called the percentage of yield curving versions which is I think it's a more comprehensive way of looking at yield curve and it is and what I'm amazed at here is I'm looking at your notations on the bottom of the chart that the this is the 30 year the 10 year the seven year the 25 year three year two year and also 12 months three months one month uh Libor and the FED funds

rate so you've taken every uh potential uh um uh note bill or bond that could plus the FED funds rate that could possibly invert here and you've added them all together and so this uh is the truly big and that's what I like about uh Crest Capital uh they take a macro Long View and uh yeah so okay yeah tell us more about this I'm sorry I interrupted no no no you're you did a great job you explained better than I would and so this is just calculating the percentage of all possible spreads in the yield

curve that you just mentioned um that essentially are inverted and so when you go through all history and you see that that measurement goes above 70 every time we've had a hard lending um so when I see people betting we're going to see a soft lending in this um and and I looked at the analysis in credit markets it's very clear to me that we're gonna see uh something a lot worse than people are expecting more importantly note that the percentage of versions is rising but very different

than what we saw in the tech bus and the housing bus because they're in those periods the long end of the treasury curve meaning the 10-year yields the third year yields they were falling they're basically collapsing as the short-term duration bonds yields were actually rising and so uh or or at least not falling as quickly so that was the creation or the problem of the of the the housing bust and the tech bus in terms of the treasury market today virtually all yields are rising and we're still seeing percentage of yield

curving versions that are higher than what we saw in the tech in the in a housing bust and so this is to me a very classic stagflationary uh sign of of what we're seeing so far in the economy and to me it's it's not a also uh the probability of a recession itself it's only increasing when I looked at charts like this um and by the way empirically when you go up above the 70 threshold in this measurement uh what we found about or in our research is that you want to own gold in in environments like this you

want to own gold and sell the s p essentially is that ratio of gold to S P 500 ratio tends to perform incredibly well after the fact I've seen above 70 percent of threshold of yield conversion versions being breached so here we are today I guess yeah um okay thank you uh you uh you you like this chart as well and it's it's such an important development uh of of how inflation uh you know kind of feels feeds on itself and you see you know higher highs of inflation and the waves that it tends to

go through uh and by the way this is not just the US I mean if you look at inflationary environments in Brazil and turkey in Venezuela in Argentina in Germany in the 1920s um anything usually what you tend to see is is a sign of these effects and and and just you know uh uh math uh where you tend to see this wave wave formation in into the development of inflation and so the 1970s was no different and today will likely be very similar we've had a period where inflation went higher uh and recently we've had a deceleration

process of inflation which I think we're very close to the end of deceleration of of consumer prices uh and I think we're going to start seeing a rise of that uh one more time yeah uh you know I I've often said that every dollar created has to go somewhere so when they uh create currency when they do QE and such uh and when interest rates are taken down and the banks create a lot of currency uh it has to flow somewhere so something whether it's savings or real estate or the stock

market or bonds or uh groceries and gasoline something has to inflate and when we're talking about like this chart is tracking basically what I call groceries and gasoline it's the stuff you buy uh and uh What uh creates inflation you know inflation is a phenomenon of the quantity of currency chasing the number of goods uh and the velocity and then International Trade flows uh and all of those things have an effect on the inflation that you see at the grocery store in the gas pump and uh one of the

things that uh people don't look at uh typically in the if you're really looking at it macro the quantity of currency that they created uh during QE and then covid uh all of that has to be accounted for someday and it hasn't yet a small percentage has been uncounted for this chart that you're showing really makes a lot of sense to me I think that we're in for uh another wave or two I think this chart of the 70s is actually a very good way of predicting what is going to happen in the future it it certainly

serves as a guide or a model for for today and I would say that the biggest counter argument to this is you know that the 70s we didn't have the same amount of debt and therefore it's going to play out differently but if we look in the 40s which was a period that we saw death oh yeah GDP at the degree that we're seeing today guess what there was also an inflationary wave period in the 30s and 40s that was progressively higher it started after the Great Depression and we did see inflation

getting progressively higher gradually higher in rates the Peaks are higher as you can see and it developed in a very similar Manner and so I think this is no different I mean meaning um you know this is a important road map for the U.S economy today and other developed economies I think we're entering a world of a secular inflationary problem uh for many reasons given the fact of how much fiscal spending we're seeing the chronic under investments in in natural resource Industries but also the wages and

salaries growth that we're seeing especially across uh the bottom 50 percent of the population when it comes to um the financial classes that we have in the US and other developed economies and that is very much uh I would say similar to what we see in in Emerging Markets where uh that pressure from higher wages across lower income parts of the society really tends to create also pressure on consumer goods and services to uh to stay elevated and finally I think that's similar to the 40s which

is I think it's even more uh you know uh similar in terms of uh of of the geopolitical environment than in the 70s is this deglobalization trends that we're seeing today uh of countries going above and beyond uh to secure their uh uh their own you know onshore of manufacturing plants and and so forth and those things are likely to also create upper pressure in consumer goods and services yeah yeah okay let's move on so this is a long-term view of 30-year break-evens 30-year break-evens for people that

don't know is basically the market expectation uh for investors uh on where CPI is likely to be 30 years from now uh you may disagree or agree with the chart but uh this is just you know just facts and we're looking at basically a a break of a downward Trend that we've had uh back in 2020 this is coming out of a really beginning of 2021 as we broke out and I'll try to put my curse over here a big breakout of you know over a decade long of uh of of a dollar Trend and then we've had this consolidation period of

the last two years uh in which you know Russia invaded Ukraine we've had issues with energy crisis we've had a a food crisis we have so many problems developing um and yet um inflation has been sort of consolidating other and energy in this in this chart I think we're going to go significantly higher and we've had a you know a few uh you know a few Behavior Uh Market behavior of things happening recently that I think are interesting across you know the oil and and agricultural Commodities uh even gold

and silver uh and I think you know this chart is just a Poise to move a significantly higher over the next you know two to three years uh as we see uh that deceleration process going away and starting to see the receleration of inflation and the second wave of of that model that we were looking at in a prior chart uh is starting to uh to unfold here uh in the following months okay and uh not to go too long so I'm not going to go through all this I mean this is uh yeah yeah this is about uh gold to

treasury so I'd like to know yeah this is something I wanna it just shows how much Headroom there is for gold still so yeah go ahead and tell us about this chart no that's that's a deck away uh it also shows gold Cycles in the past how gold outperforms treasuries yeah also yeah you know I notice almost everybody does this uh they've got the 70s bull market in gold as one cycle but you can see that it had a uh it's it's a secular bowl with a cyclical pullback right in the middle of

it a correction and I consider this bull market one big bull market I'm one of the few people out there that doesn't consider and I know it's taking a long time because you know uh you know you had the up wave from 2000 to 2011 and then you have a uh 12-year uh consolidation uh correction you know and we've we've break it broken out above the 2011 highs so actually the correction was over with uh a couple of years ago we're just in a consolidation right now uh moving sideways I still

consider it all part of one big bull market from a because when you look at all of these different ratio charts the ratios are just off they're they're they aren't even I mean uh you know there's if if you look at where the average was from uh uh this through the 70s through the 90s on this chart or the early 90s um through the 80s you can see that we're still way below that average um anyway so uh you can either talk about more about this one or move on whatever you want yeah I was just going to say

one more thing is regarding interest rates right I mean in the 70s interest rates were rising to and gold still massively outperformed treasuries uh during that period I think we're going to see something similar today and gold is extremely undervalue and I would say treasuries are in my view one of the most overvalued instruments uh out there and uh you know that yeah you can't have a bull market that has been going on since uh like 1980 yeah uh uh without with it's been like this perfect

uninterrupted bull market uh it it has to be overvalued if it's that long in the tooth there's no possibility that it isn't so yeah that's right um and that ties well with the history of gold Cycles chart in which you know a sort of uh wanted to analyze uh history again and look back and see what are were some important drivers of Prior gold cycles and why I think today is is an even more attractive and perhaps even more relevant uh period for gold than we've seen in the past and uh you know

the first gold cycle in the 70s had a lot of its own reasons I mean we're in an inflationary regime we we left the gold standard um and the central banks believe it or not we're accumulating gold relative to sovereign debt um there was a lack of discoveries of gold in that period and some of that has to do with access for Capital given the fact that interest rates are rising and it was difficult to uh to uh to spend Capital into uh and also challenging to even find those discoveries and then

with gold prices rising so much in the 70s we actually saw the unleashing of that as was was a large amount of discoveries in the 80s in the 90s of of gold discoveries across the globe and one of some of the the most uh amazing uh deposits were found during that period and uh and then you know that was a period when we saw basically gold underperform almost every asset class for 20 years and at the very bottom of that period was during the attack bust um in which that cycle itself was completely different I mean we we didn't

see an inflation inflationary regime like we saw in the 70s um central banks were not accumulating gold during that period they were selling something different what's that sorry they were selling they were selling yeah and we solved something very different which was China was entering the WTO China was it was uh uh trying to become the the manufacturing plant of of the global economy in which was successful with that um and that drove a commodity super cycle at that time in which when you think about how

interconnectic gold and other Commodities are is certainly the case I mean it's we've never seen a gold cycle that didn't drive a commodity cycle and so um no I do think this is going to be the case today but when I look at the list of of reasons why gold could potentially be entering a third gold cycle right at a time when we've had a triple top in the gold price and a lot of people have been very skeptical about the metal itself to a degree that I haven't seen in the past really since the you know

maybe in the tech bus period or so uh and now we with with crypto and other things uh kind of uh stealing the launch of gold but you think about you know falling gold production across most of the major companies we've got central banks accumulating the metal at record levels with have 60 40 portfolios the traditional portfolio compositions starting to look at their treasury Holdings and saying well maybe that's not really uh what protects us from the downside it's not really owning U.S debt

um we have this Ultra conservatism across most of the the uh of commodity businesses in which we're not seeing gold discoveries come out we're not seeing really the development of new projects that will create new producing Assets in the gold space and what I call this trifecta of macro imbalances which is uh the debt problem of the 40s the inflation of the 70s and the valuation problem of the late 90s or the late 20s when before the Great Depression and that creates these uh political constraints that I believe will unleash

an inflationary regime and so uh to me this is you know it's such an important chart to be thinking about yeah I want to point out a couple of things here uh for the audience um that you mentioned the triple top and and I believe you've got a chart coming up somewhere where you're going to zoom in on that but that chart does not include the big uh more than decade-long pan and handle uh you know we had a cup and handle forming but now the handle is getting long so if people can look at

that area from like 2011 the the peak all the way to today it sort of looks like a big pan with it with a handle on the end and that's one of the most bullish formations there is along with a triple top that's one of the most bullish I did a an Insider's video a couple of months ago on this and I analyzed all of that and now that handle and triple top looks like it could be forming into an inverse head and shoulders and so with with these I I if the markets keep on Rising uh then gold

will will remain a little bit suppressed but to me that's you're like your last opportunity to accumulate sub two thousand dollar gold this opportunity isn't going to last forever uh and once it breaks through that resistance of the triple top that is there that resistance becomes support it'll probably come back down and test it and then take off like a rocket and you will never see uh sub two thousand dollar gold again that will be a thing in history like twenty dollar gold it's crazy to think of that way but it's

certainly uh I mean just look at how you know the upward pressure that you see after the the onset of a cycle and it's just uh I think a lot of people are underestimating what we could do so this consolidation has really gone on since 2011 and I want to remind people that the longer consolidation goes on the more pressure builds up the the uh more out of balance things are you know at first a consolidation is correcting something can get run ahead of itself and consolidate and that's sort of like

this soft Landing that the Federal Reserve keeps on wishing for a consolidation a crash uh is uh uh so this consolidation has gone on since 2011. uh this sideways motion uh while the currency Supply keeps on expanding and we've got inflation and then we've got all these geopolitical things happening all of this just stores energy and when we finally break this triple top of hitting a price hitting a price hitting a price when it busts through it which it usually does on the of a triple top doesn't usually turn into a

quadruple top it's not it the next time it uh touches that area say goodbye to a sub two thousand dollar gold well we're on to something and uh I I'm happy to do you want uh to uh to jump to that silver chart uh for uh no keep on going through these gold charts and then go and uh well actually that is my silver chart the next one unless you oh okay that's fine let's do it yes because the most important thing is if we're going if we believe we're going to a gold cycle and we looked at the Gold to

Silver ratio 80 or so which is historically High boy if this really is a gold cycle I don't think we've seen one in which silver doesn't lead the way to the upside and I looked at this very less chart and it's just uh monthly candles of silver going back to 20 uh 11 or so 2010 2011 2011 is the peak yeah the peak and then you can see the monthly chart in which uh we've had a you know we started there at this resistance that have has lasted for over uh decades now and uh we're

very very close to a breakout in this chart uh this could happen any month really yes it could yeah uh and you know uh a stock market crash could uh I don't have the the stocks I have are long-term bets where I'm I'm thinking that even if they go if if they go through a crash I will use that as an opportunity to accumulate more because these are bets for uh you know 20 30 uh not for uh 20 24 20 25 2026. uh so like Warren Buffett once said find a stock that you really like and buy it and then

pray that it goes down so that you can buy more and that's exactly what I've been doing uh and uh you know most of my uh portfolio though the the most of my net worth is in Precious Metals uh so anyway um yes this is a very exciting chart and this trend line is actually you know I did this an analysis of where gold and silver were in my last Insider's video this is something I missed and so when I saw your you do this I went wow I gotta present that for everybody so yeah okay so I guess that sort of rep is there

anything you want to say here at the end and I hope this yeah go ahead go ahead tell us a little bit more about crestcat as well oh thanks for the opportunity to do that uh this uh crescott is is a global macro uh you know firm we we manage three different portfolios uh and one of them is a precious metals portfolio as well in which we invest in a lot of new discoveries and development stories in the industry uh and it's a lot of exciting ways of of taking a kind of an activist role in into this

industry which I think it's lacking in a large way um so you know I craskade I'm I'm really uh involved with the macro research in a lot in a large way and uh We've we've got a lot of uh in-depth letters in our in our website uh which is kresket.net and put out a lot of charts on Twitter as well and research in general uh sharing our views about the economy and the global uh stage and how we think things are going to be uh playing down in in the near future so uh thanks for the opportunity again Mike it was really

great to be able to share uh a lot of This research here in your Channel uh well it no problem I mean uh I'm always looking for uh in-depth analysis what I love about what you guys do there is that it is so macro because uh macro when you've got uh the fundamentals of something uh like you're measuring the debt in the economy and inflation and all these uh very very large things over a long time scale so when you've got the fundamentals laid down and then you use technical analysis

on top of that fundamentals tell you where it is going ultimately but it can't tell you when it says it's got to return to an equilibrium sometime uh and uh so uh adding technicals to fundamentals but you know I see these uh people that there's all these services that you can buy for technical trading and so on and if they're so incredibly good why aren't these guys all billionaires and why are they putting their work into monthly subscriptions uh uh of this technical analysis to to

guide you and stuff because you know that's a lot of work uh it's a lot of work doing these uh the Youtube videos and such but I enjoy it that was my mission was to educate everybody and I'm not working off of a subscription model so I don't have to uh um uh keep this up to make a living it's it's uh anyway uh so I I like uh when somebody is taking a look at the really big picture because when you're looking at Global and you're looking over long time scales it shows

you and you're looking at all these ratios how what what is imbalance and what is out of balance and you can see that when you look over decades uh and uh and so I like that about your company and I like that about what you do so I hope you will join us again sometime absolutely and the fact that this is a generational wealth opportunity in my opinion despite the Doom and Gloom and the issues that were referring to at the beginning of this of this video um you know this is a real opportunity I

think uh to uh to really capitalize in a lot of those macro imbalances and so I think you know to me this this is my major Focus right now and I I think there's going to be a lot of interesting developments out of all this and certainly gold would be uh you know play a big role into that in my view yeah I feel exactly the same way I I really feel like uh this there's there's something big that is going to be happening within the just the next couple of years and it is one of the greatest opportunities in history so uh

I want to thank everybody for watching and I want to thank you again Tavi for uh making this appearance and sharing all those great charts and wonderful analysis with us so uh we'll see you next time please like And subscribe to this video say goodbye Tavi thank you very much Mike okay bye