gold news

 Hello everyone, welcome to Baldu Guy Money. And back in March of this year when silver reached $34 an ounce, I made a video asking if we'd ever see the price fall back below $30 an ounce again. And what I said in that video was that following a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, we always see silver price flush out one time and fall below the price it was at when the Federal Reserve first cut rates. And because silver was just below $30 an ounce before that September 2024 rate cut at 2935 an ounce, I also said that I

expected to see silver fall below $30 one more time before moving up to new 10-year highs. And sure enough, that's exactly what's happened with silver dipping below $30 an ounce. In fact, it was only a week and a half after I had made that video in the first week of April this year and has now been followed by the highest monthly close for silver since, listen to this, August 2011 at $36.70 an ounce as we continue to move towards my 2026 price target of $60 per ounce. Now despite the positive outlook for

silver, there are some barriers it has to pass in the short term. Ones that may test the resolve of some people who are stacking silver or holding silver mining stocks as well as what may become opportunities for people who may not have stacked enough silver till now or maybe still want to enter that silver miner trade. So in this video I want to talk about exactly that. Starting with the factors that are applying pressure to silver price over the short term, what the risks are and what you should

expect to ultimately answer the question of whether silver will dip below $30 an ounce one more time like I said it likely would back in March before zooming off to new all-time highs. Once that's covered, I am going to at least try to blow your minds as we finish this video off talking about gold revaluation. Why it hasn't happened yet, but why it may happen very soon. So, be sure to watch the entire video for that information. Now, just before we dive in, please remember to check out summitmetals.com if you want to buy gold

and silver at a great price from a dealer you can trust. And good news for those of you who stack Germanmania Mint products like I do, they are back in stock just in time for this silver pullback. And if it's silver you're buying, don't forget that new customers get 5 ounces of silver at spot when using code new customer at checkout. Details in the video description below. So, jumping in, despite the recent strength in silver's price, there are some short-term threats on the horizon.

The labor market in the United States is showing official signs of slowing. And I say official signs because we know it's really been slowing since early 2024, maybe even late 2023. But we finally got confirmation of what we knew to be true this past week after months, even years of questioning the official labor statistics data coming out of the United States as we saw a quarter of a million jobs wiped off the books in May and June and a very weak result of less than a 100,000 jobs added in the month of July.

And when you add to that the lingering concerns about trade deals and tariffs and how they may impact the global economy, it seems the rword and of course I'm talking about recession is back on the table only shortly after we were reassured by JP Morgan that there wouldn't be one. Now I am one of those people who think that we are already in the midst of a mild recession. And as I showed you all last week when I measured the S&P 500 in other currencies like the euro and Swiss Frank, I also believe

that we are in a stealth bare market. Meaning the new highs that the S&P 500 is making aren't really all that high when the index is actually down around 8% when measured in other currencies since the February 19th high. But with official US data starting to go bad, I'm talking about the labor data here. What was or maybe still is just a stealth bare market for US stocks now threatens to become a real bare market that in my opinion could easily reach the April lows once again, representing a 25%

pullback from the July high. And where I think it gets interesting is when we fall under the February high of 6,144 and then 5,93 where we opened the year on the S&P 500 as traders scrambled to secure profits. Now, how this all relates to silver is like this. It's that broader market situation that I think could be a headwind for silver over the short term. Because although it's true that silver ultimately follows gold, and we'll talk about that more shortly, silver is very much impacted by market sentiment as

many investors argue that silver has less safe haven attributes than gold has. And because it's an industrial metal, a market downturn along with a recession will hurt silver prices. And it's that thinking that has resulted in silver tracking the S&P 500 fairly closely since 2020. Most notably so in April 2025 when we saw the big stock market selloff when silver price dipped below $30 an ounce and we saw the last negative monthly close for silver which happened even though gold price moved up

more than 5% that month and even hit $3,500 an ounce momentarily. So, now that we've established that silver behaves more like the stock market over the short term when we see negative sentiment and market volatility, the question remains, will we see silver below $30 an ounce one more time in 2025? And my answer to that question is a direct and simple no. In fact, I will go as far as to say we are not only at the point where sub $2,000 gold is no longer possible. it's not going to happen. Which, by the way, I've said on

the channel before, but we are at a point where sub $30 silver is with a high degree of certainty not going to happen again. And most likely what we will see in an environment where the US Treasury is trying to influence the bond market by selling less long-term treasuries. They're trying to get those long-term interest rates down, those yields on the treasuries down. and where the Federal Reserve is now all of a sudden expected to lower rates in September after they held rates where they were in July. What I expect is a

return for silver at the lowest. And I'm not saying we are going to get this low, but at the lowest to manage your expectations to the 52- week moving average, which is around the $31 per ounce level, which by the way would match more or less the 13.3% drop we saw in silver's price at the end of March and early April 2025. And this should be welcomed, at least in my opinion, as an opportunity for those of you who didn't act on the previous pullbacks instead of being met with fear. Because as I said

earlier, and I told you we'd return to this topic, silver will follow gold up over the midterm and long term. And that is something I assume is basically common knowledge amongst anybody who even has a shred of knowledge about how precious metals behave. But unfortunately, this remains an inconvenient fact for the people who try to position silver as simply an industrial metal that suffers badly during recessions. Even though we know gold shines its brightest during recessions, that both gold and silver

kicked the S&P 500's butt quite literally during the period between 2000 and 2012 when we experienced, by the way, two significant recessions. So, don't buy the bearish BS on silver doing bad if we enter a recession because it's exactly that. It's BS. Because even if silver follows the stock market down over the short term, what some have called a blowoff top for metals today, they're calling this the blowoff top for metals. This is really just the start of a longer term move to the upside for

both gold and silver. And although we will reach a temporary top at some point in time, a clear signal of that, apart from a crashing gold to silver ratio, which is something I've talked about in recent videos to look out for, another sign of that would be a large unnatural rise in the price of silver when measured on an average annual basis, which by the way, at this moment of time, we simply aren't seeing compared to the gains by the way that we saw on an average basis. is from 2009 to 2010

and then 2010 to 2011 which was a big year for silver where the average price of silver gained in the period of a year from year to year 73%. So even if we see a pullback from here, this video is intended on keeping you confident and focused as we progress in this metals bull market and it's to prepare you all to take advantage of opportunities as opposed to selling them, which is sadly what I've seen some people doing. Now moving on to this video's viewer question. And please remember that I answer one viewer

question in every video I do. I take it from the comments section below. So, please feel free to leave your question for me in the comments section below. And you never know, it may appear in the next video. And this week's question comes from a viewer, Vienna Weiss, who is a regular in the Sunday live chat. So, hello Vienna. I know you are watching this video. And what he wants to know is, and I think it's a very good question, by the way, is why the United States has kept its gold so massively

underpriced on its books for so long. And I will add to that question, my own little bit of a question, is why it might be changing now. So, jumping in, for those of you who are only partially aware of this, the United States government says it holds 8,133 metric tons of gold, making US gold reserves the largest international gold reserves as far as we know based on official data. But one interesting fact about that reserve is that the last time the book value, so the listed price of the gold that is reflected in official

US government data was updated was in 1973. And the official price on the US government's books today for 1 ounce of gold is, listen to this, $422 per ounce. And as you can see here, that means that since 1973, the United States has officially held about $11 billion in gold reserves, despite the fact that the real market value of that gold has increased from 72 billion in 2000 up to nearly 900 billion based on the current spot price of gold today. Now, if we go back to 1973, the year they set the

$42.22 22 cent per ounce number. You will see that the lowest price gold hit that year was $63.20 per ounce as gold price really started to lift off after the end of the gold standard in 1971. And some people, including myself, believe that move, that 1973 revaluation was an attempt, a failed attempt to keep a lid on the gold market by admitting to some dollar devaluation, but trying to convince the market it wasn't as bad. And after that move failed because gold never returned to $42 after that. In fact, it only went

higher. At that point, it became more convenient for the US government to ignore gold altogether and hope the problem went away instead of publicly fighting against it. While they shifted their efforts in the meantime to support the dollar in other ways, mainly via the deal they made with Saudi Arabia in 1974, establishing the petro dollar and neutralizing the threat that gold posed to the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency, at least for the short term. But whether the United States

government wants to admit it or not, gold is a competitor to the US dollar. And it's a secret that is getting harder to keep and harder to ignore. Not only because any semiaware investor sees the inverse or opposite relationship between the price of gold and the strength of the US dollar, but also because gold is once again gaining a significant share of the global reserve asset market. In fact, so much so that it recently passed the euro to become the number two global reserve asset and now has really only

the US dollar to pass before it becomes number one. And if you don't want to take just my word for it about gold being a competitor to the US dollar, here is what Peter Schiff had to say on my show back in 2023 when I asked him about gold's relationship to the US dollar and whether the United States would start buying gold like other countries have. I mean, first of all, I think that's the last thing the US government wants is to help push the price of gold higher because a rising gold price is a is a

bad sign for the dollar and its role as the world's reserve currency. I mean, the dollar's primary competitor is gold. You know, central banks have a choice. They can own gold or they can own dollars. And more and more central banks are choosing to sell dollars to buy gold. And so if the if the US Treasury joined the gold buying party that would put even more upward pressure on gold and create even greater incentives uh to buy it and of course that would send the wrong message right if if def started buying gold imagine

the message that that sounds that's like you know uh you know the the policemen are having to uh you know get call in the police to protect themselves right I mean you don't it it would send a message that things are not great because we're telling everybody how great everything is. It's great economy, the strongest US economy. Inflation is going back down. Uh so why would the US be buying gold? It would be sending a mixed message to the world. You know, uh you know, ignore what we're we're

saying. Look at what we're doing, right? We could say one thing, but we're doing the opposite by by buying gold. Uh so that's not going to happen. So now that we've established that its most likely official US policy has been to deliberately ignore gold because of its status as the number one competitor to the US dollar. The question remains, what incentive does the United States and the Trump administration have to all of a sudden abandon more than 50 years of unofficial US government policy and

revalue the nation's gold reserves now? Well, from my point of view, the answer is simple and it's because the US debt to GDP has now exceeded 120% where the debt is 120% of the country's GDP. And although some of you may think that's just a number, let me tell you here that is an important number because it is a number that is used by many global investors and economists around the world as a point of no return when it comes to measuring financial sustainability. Now, there are

a few reasons why that is, and I'm going to put those reasons in text format in the video description below for those of you who want to read through it a bit in a more detailed fashion. But to keep things compact and tight in this video, essentially what this is telling us is that US debt is now a major risk. And it's why we are seeing hesitancy when it comes to people buying US debt. It's why real interest rates haven't come down so much yet. And it's why so many people have and still are flocking to gold for

safety. But if the United States could just do some creative accounting to make that number look lower, it could regain the confidence of the market and assert lower interest rates, which would help make this problem, which is more than $1 trillion in annual interest payments on the US debt slowly go away or at least make it more manageable. And by revaluing the gold to its current market price on the balance sheet, they could technically add almost $1 trillion to the asset side of their balance sheet,

driving that debt to GDP, back below 120% while not spreading too much fear about the sustainability of the US dollar, which is what a revaluation to some wildly higher level like $15,000 an ounce would do. So don't expect that market price is all you will likely see. And by doing that, the US Treasury can sell a story to the market that they are reducing the debt to GDP, which is something Scott Besson has clearly stated is a goal of his and a goal of this administration's well, by the way,

not actually having to do anything when it comes to real government spending as they say they're focusing their efforts on economic growth, which I will judge the results of once we get to 2028. But no matter how they try to spin it, I will be keeping this fact at the front of my mind. Not even at the back of my mind, at the front of my mind, which is that based on spending projections out to 2035. So only 10 years from now, the United States will grow its overall debt by 80 to 100% made worse by the fact

that by 2033, the Social Security Trust is expected to run out of money, at which point I expect to see even more borrowing and money printing to fill the gap. And it's why I think gold's best days are likely ahead of it. And it's why I also think that revaluing the US gold reserves, if it happens, may end up being the final nail in the coffin for the US dollar, which over the long term, meaning the next 20 to 30 years, may end up resulting in its global status resembling that of the euro, while gold

potentially takes the top spot once again as the world's leading reserve currency. Let's see what happens. But this would be very bullish for gold. So Vienna, I hope that answers your question and has given you a little bit of food for thought on how to see this revaluation and why it may be done and why it hasn't happened yet up till this point. And for everybody else, I want to thank you all for watching this deep into the video. Please remember if you enjoyed the content to leave a like

below and if you think you know somebody in your life who needs to hear this message, please don't be shy. share this video with them as it helps this channel grow. And as I say at the end of all of my videos, please remember to take care of yourselves, but more importantly, take care of each other. See you all in the next video. Goodbye.