Today Gold and sliver 132

During the year, I think we'll be well in the hundreds on silver. Something very dramatic's going to happen and it will not be incremental. >> You're watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. >> Silver isn't just breaking out, it's breaking the rules. In a matter of weeks, it's gone from a quiet sleeper to the most volatile headlinebra metal in the financial world. But while the mainstream scrambles to explain the chaos, one man saw it coming. Michael Oliver, a veteran market analyst with a track record of calling major momentum shifts, says this is only the beginning. And if he's right, we're about to witness one of the most explosive silver runs in history. This isn't just another rally. According to Oliver, silver is entering what he calls a new reality. Not $50, not even 70. He's talking triple digits. And he's not alone. Because underneath the surface of these wild price swings lies a seismic shift. One that's been building for years and is now finally erupting. So what triggered this move? Why is silver behaving like a coiled spring finally let loose? And how high could it really go? Stay with me because what's happening in the silver market right now might just be the financial story of the decade. And you're not going to want to miss it. I I love it when I listen to the financial networks and my son Brett monitors all the stuff going on in the internet, you know, the advisors there and so forth and everybody when silver drops hard, that's when you get news stories about it. It's rarely do they they cite the fact that it's been exploding for quite a while, especially this past month. Uh, and but when it drops big, oh, there's the headlines, you know, and so that draws everybody's attention. And there's all kinds of stories that surround silver that some of which are true and some not, but about, oh, this institution is going to do this or this exchange is going to do that and that's going to wreck the whole market, etc. You got to be aware that what's underneath this beast and our assessment and so far we're we're right is that it's going to a new reality. Silver's not going to have another $50 up move out of the range from 0 to 50 basically for 50 years and go up and and everybody's going to think around 100 naturally. Oh, that's that's a swing move. You know, the dimension of the prior base. We think we're going to a new reality in the hundreds of dollars and I think we're going to do it in about six months. Our clock started at the close of November. At that time the price of silver was in the mid50s. It was based on a signal we got from our relative performance analysis, spread chart analysis of silver versus gold, gold versus the S&P, gold miners versus gold. All of these metrics said, uhoh, we just shifted in a big way at a relative performance basis. when that occurred in 79 in the rush to the 1980 high and in 2010 to the rush to the 2011 high big multiple gains in six months that spread broke out silver versus gold. We've had a situation for since 2020 basically of silver sort of underperforming gold. It's going up in price along with gold but less so and therefore the spread relationship has been like a capped off. you broke through the cap at the November close. Now, and sure enough, if you use that as your metric and it said this is just the beginning of a massive shift of silver versus gold and also of net price, then the clock just began there. So, it's not old, it's fresh. And our argument is looking at lots of metrics that >> the moment everything changed wasn't when silver hit $84 or when it snapped back up after a vicious sell-off. It was the end of November. That's when Michael Oliver's models triggered a major alert. But this wasn't about price. It wasn't about headlines. It was something deeper. Oliver tracks momentum, specifically the relationship between silver and other key markets like gold, the S&P 500, and gold miners. And what he saw in late November was a massive structural breakout in the silver to gold spread. For years, silver had lagged gold, caught in a frustrating range. But then, snap! The cap broke. Silver didn't just outperform, it exploded through a multi-year ceiling of resistance. According to Oliver, this type of spread breakout only happens at historic inflection points. He points to 1979 and 2010, the last two times we saw a similar move. In both cases, silver surged multiple times over in just 6 months. That's the clock Oliver says started ticking in November. The price back then, mid50s, that wasn't the top. That was ground zero. Everything since has been confirmation. And if history is any guide, this breakout isn't noise. It's the signal. The kind of signal that rewrites the script for the entire precious metals market. Silver is likely in the next 6 months to minimum reach a couple hundred dollars and possibly more than that uh in going to a new reality. not this 50-year range has been confined in, which most actually commodity markets have not been confined in that sort of range. Copper hasn't, lead hasn't, but silver has, and it it's saying no more. Okay? And it's not going to do it in a slow staircase corrective process manner. So, what we've stressed to our subscribers for some time is that you've got to somewhat ignore the type of events that we just had yesterday. Uh, which, you know, usually it takes a week or so and you get a 10 or 15% pullback and then it takes you a couple months to go up and take out that high. That's not Look at back at October is a good example. We hit a high and we had a sharp break that lasted a couple weeks. Much of it occurred in the first week, but you couldn't get back to the high for about three or four weeks later. So, you got whacked, but still it was pretty fast recovery given some of the other behavior of silver the last few years. This time it was 24-hour event. We went from a futures high at 82, dropped down almost to 70, and turned around today and hit 78. I mean, it didn't it didn't fool around. It didn't base. It didn't prove itself as support before it turned up. It just said bam, back up. Okay. In fact, we're back up trading now above the high close that occurred high settlement price on Friday. So, this is the kind of behavior that that investors need to be aware of that it is going to be part of this explosive advance and just don't get upset by it. In fact, if you try to get out, the problem is getting back in because sometimes it's not going to give you a nice base from which to buy from. It's just going to go whap right back up and you'll say, "What do I do now?" So, anybody who got out yesterday in the mid middle of that cor collapse, for example, is already behind if they buy back in. Don't get out. Now, in about six months, we'll be trying to define a a place to then get out after silver has reached a new reality because there will be major correction at some point, but I don't think you're going to see it until we get in well into the second quarter. >> Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we're running a 10oz silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver. Not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This Telegram will be our new home for real-time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks, and everything precious metals. It's where the community truly comes alive. Here's how to enter the 10oz silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell, comment 10O giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the Telegram group, and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we'll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So, get in early, stay active. What happened next caught everyone off guard except Michael Oliver. On the surface, it looked like chaos. Silver surged to nearly $84 in overseas trading only to crash down to $70 and bounce right back up to 78 hours, all within 24 hours. To most analysts, that kind of volatility screams danger. But Oliver saw something else. He saw acceleration. In his view, these violent swings aren't signs of weakness. They're signs that silver is now operating under a completely different set of rules. The traditional pattern, rally, pullback, slow grind higher, that's gone. This market isn't waiting around to build a base or confirm support. It's snapping back instantly, reclaiming losses with a speed that punishes anyone who tries to trade in and out. And that's exactly what makes it dangerous. Not for those holding, but for those hesitating. The people who sold during the drop were already underwater just a day later. There was no time to re-enter, no clean second chance. It's the kind of behavior Oliver has warned about for months. Sudden drops followed by even more aggressive surges. All part of a fastmoving revaluation. This isn't a healthy correction. It's a tectonic shift. And as Oliver puts it, once these momentum dynamics are set in motion, they don't stop halfway. They build, they intensify, and then they break through everything in front of them. When the spread broke out last month, forget the net price of silver or gold. Quit looking at their charts, okay? But when that relative performance spread broke out, it broke through a multi-year high of where silver had continually gone to bump against the price of gold where it created a a ceiling of resistance that it couldn't perform better than that level when it broke through last month. Silver's up $22 on the month. One month, it's already been in a bull market. Why did it suddenly go up $22 in one month? The spread said the game has changed. And I think the game will continue for a couple quarters and once it's over, we'll look back and say, "Oh, golly, wish I were there." Well, the way to stay there is to stay long until certain metrics that we're monitoring say, "Okay, now we've maybe reached the level and probably even overshot a reality level." So if silver is justified to be a couple hundred dollars an ounce, like if you if you take M2 money supply and go back to 1980 and factor in the money growth, depreciation, and the buying power of the US dollar, and then calculate where silver might be, be a couple hundred bucks probably. There's no question about that. But if that's where it's going, it's likely to overshoot it as most markets do. if they've made a big mistake, they often overshoot the correction of the mistake. And so be ready for that. Uh and there's another thing going on with silver that people seem to be focused on silver itself, like the industrial supply demand deficit that it's been around for 5 years now. You know, why didn't it work three years ago? Well, suddenly it's starting to work. Okay. Well, you don't have enough silver to meet demand, especially high-tech demand. um the everybody's focused on those aspects of silver and also they're all panicked by the potential that oh my gosh the the COMX will raise the CME will raise the margin requirement well they've been raising it all along I think it was like a 13% jump on Friday in fact um where they raised the the margin rate uh and in 1980 the chairman of the comx who I knew because he had trained me as AF Hutton. I was worked under him. He was the head of Hutton's commodity division in the mid70s, but he stayed the chairman of the ComX tool 1980. And he imposed no buying seat buy orders. Silver's at 50 bucks. It had gone from about three bucks to 50. Okay. And the market crashed. Okay. They think, "Oh, all they have to do is somebody on the outside, like in an exchange here or there, can push a button and stop this bull market." They don't realize what's really underneath the surface here. It's not merely exchange margin rates that are causing silver to go up too much. It's the that industrial supply aspect, but it's also primarily the monetary issue. Silver is money. It's been money for 3,000 plus, you know, years along with gold. the poor man's gold and also money recognized by various governments including ours at one point. So that is what's going on and there's bigger issues that are underlying that that continue to drive for example gold uh is the issue of these dangers that exist and are about to implode and create even more central bank panic and printing printing. And that's the real driver under silver and gold. Forget $50. That number is already obsolete. According to Michael Oliver, we're not just headed for a higher silver price. We're leaving the old paradigm behind entirely. For decades, silver's been boxed into a range between 0 and 50. It flirted with breaking out in 1980 and again in 2011, but each time it was slammed back down. This time, Oliver argues, is fundamentally different. His analysis points to silver entering a new reality, a zone where tripledigit prices aren't just possible, they're inevitable. He doesn't see another short-term spike. He sees an entirely new valuation structure forming, one that reflects decades of suppressed momentum now being violently released. And he's not pulling numbers out of thin air. When you adjust for things like M2 money supply growth, inflation, and dollar devaluation since the 1980s, silver's fair value could already be somewhere north of $200. But here's the catch. Markets don't stop at fair value. They overshoot. They get irrational. They correct too far in the opposite direction. So, if $200 is justified, Oliver believes it could go even higher before this run cools off. And here's what makes it even more compelling. Unlike copper, lead, or gold, silver has been uniquely trapped in this decadesl long range. Now that it's breaking free, it's not looking back. The breakout has already begun, and it's rewriting the boundaries of what silver can be. So, uh, President Williams of the New York Fed a month or so ago gave a press conference or speech and he said that the Fed is going to start quote buying bonds and he didn't say he was going to do it to support that market. He his excuse was to provide liquidity because it's been a fairly illquid market and they want to provide liquidity like a little technical issue or something. uh instead the issue is the fact that on the long end of the US government debt market you've had no recovery no drop in rates no recovery in the price of the bonds for 3 years t- bonds crashed in price between 2020 highs around 190 price level on the 30-year bonds down to 117 by October of 2022 and if you look at a T- bond price chart or a yield chart the other way it's gone sideways for 3 years. Other words, there's no recovery in bond prices. They've been trying to base there've been repeated rallies, three three big rallies that we can measure and they haven't been able to get off the ground. So, we're T- bonds right now in the 115s. They're still below the low of that crash low in 2022. That's how anemic they are, which means rates are staying high on the long end, which is choking to a lot of entities, corporations, commercial real estate for example, uh that they need relief not on the short end, but on the long end, and they're not getting it. And that T-bond market technically to us now looks like it's vulnerable for a downside in price, upside, and yield. If you slip about a handful of points from where you are now, we're 115 plus. You get down around 111 on the T-bond futures. Right now, again, the T-bond March contract is trading 115 or so. That's not a big drop. Uh, but you drop that small amount and I'm going to start to blow momentum structures that say, uhoh, we're headed into another dive. The Fed can't stand that. The economy can't stand that. This is bigger than the stock market. So everybody in the stock market's all jubilant about this or that or AI or whatever. Oh, this sector's finally doing well. You know, they're not looking at the T-bonds. The Fed is. And the Fed's already spending money, printing money to to keep that market from doing something that it's likely to do. And that's the factor underlying the monetary metals. Because if you lose faith in government bonds, US, Japanese, UK, etc., they're all in trouble. Then the public says, "What? What do I do? Where do I put my money that's quote safe?" Because frankly, the stock market will follow that. If bonds start to break, the stock market's going to get gutkicked. And I think it will be. It's topping in our process anyway. Since January this year, the broad stock market is making a topping process. But those factors have yet to come into play. And when they do, what's that going to do to monetary metals? Massive fuel injection. >> Now, you mentioned how >> the fundamentals backing this move aren't just strong, they're historic. For five straight years, silver has been in a structural supply deficit. That means global demand has outpaced supply every single year, draining above ground reserves and tightening the physical market. And this isn't just about investors. It's industrial. Silver is a critical component in solar panels, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and high-tech medical applications. It's the metal you can't replace. The solar industry alone is consuming silver at an accelerating pace. And with green energy mandates sweeping across the globe, that demand isn't slowing down. But here's the twist. While industrial demand is exploding, mining supply is stagnant or even declining. projects take years to bring online and many of the high-grade silver mines are already exhausted. That's a collision course surging demand meeting constrained supply now layer in the monetary angle. Silver isn't just an industrial metal. It's money. It has been for over 3,000 years. And as central banks around the world race to devalue their currencies, that legacy is coming back into focus. Investors are waking up to the fact that silver, like gold, is a hedge against monetary chaos. So now you've got investment demand piling on top of industrial demand. All while supply continues to shrink. It's not just a bullish setup. It's a pressure cooker. And once that lid blows, the repricing won't be gradual. It'll be explosive. >> Well, let me put it this way. Let's talk about gold, the mama market right now. Since legalized in 1975, gold's had two major bull markets. One from the 1976 corrective low just above 100. It rose to 850 in three and a half years. That's an eightfold gain. Okay, eight times the bare low. 2001 after lengthy pullback and then basing at a price of around $260, it finally bottomed and turned up and went to 1920. another eight-fold move. Took it 10 years, different time span, but the same multiple gain. The conditions then weren't anywhere near like what we're talking about now. The fundamental underlying stability issues. Well, gold made its bare low in thousand uh December 2015 at a price of a,50. We're four-fold only half as much gain on a multiple basis as were those two prior measurable markets. So yeah, when you look at an arithmetic chart, it looks like, oh my gosh, it's been parabolic. No, it's only half as much strength as we exhibited between 76 and 80 and 2001 2011. So if golden even just matches those multiples, it would be well over 8,000. That's just matching those. That's not exceeding, you know. I I I I don't set that as a target. I'm just pointing that out. Frankly, I think if it ever got there, you'd go way beyond. Uh, and also, I think the the next out outcome of this situation that is a bit unfolding and will suddenly now more rapidly unfold. Silverstating that, you'll have fundamental factors that smack everybody in the face like jeopardized government bond markets, central banks out of control, and you'll find gold and silver possibly being monetized. this country, that country, this country and what will drive that is the pain that hits the public in these various countries about and also their sense of uncertainty and the one thing that makes them feel certain okay growing growing uh affection for the monetary medals u so I think once this next bull occurs it's not likely to collapse it's likely simply to become institutionalized it's already becoming that way. We're close to that in certain countries in the world. And with if this crisis hits as we think it will, it's going to be far more broad. Even the western countries will suddenly have to rethink their notion of u what's acceptable. What's what's a good norm to proceed on? Is it still central banks playing their boom bus games? you're you know every other year or so they inject money the market stock market goes up then suddenly it busts and they inject more money you get the you get the point and so I think we'll have a rethink where instead of a quote like you said a bubble top yeah you'll have some selloff but I think you're going to likely be institutionalized at much higher levels and that could a lot of that movement could occur this coming year >> most bull markets climb a wall of worry but this one is steamrolling through it silver isn't following the usual playbook. And that's exactly what's catching traders off guard. Investors are conditioned to wait for patterns. A dip to buy, a pullback to re-enter, a consolidation before the next leg higher. But this bull run isn't offering those luxuries. It's whiplash volatility with no warning signs, no clean technical setups, and no mercy for hesitation. Michael Oliver's warning is clear. Don't expect a tidy staircase up. This is a momentum avalanche and if you try to time it, you'll likely miss it. Just look at what happened when silver dropped hard last week. Anyone who tried to step out and wait for a base is already locked out. The rebound was immediate. No basing, no confirmation, just straight back up. And while many fear margin hikes or exchange interventions, Oliver says those tools are losing their grip. The CME raised margins by 13%. And silver still surged. Back in 1980, they killed the bull by banning buy orders. That kind of heavy-handed move could crash a market. But today, the driver isn't just leverage or speculation. It's physical demand, monetary pressure, and structural change. The game has changed. And the longer investors wait for a familiar entry point, the further silver races ahead without them. This isn't a market you trade. It's a movement you ride or get left behind. >> Yeah. Um, copper was in a range from the 1970s, 80s, 90s into about 2005, basically a buck 50 to 50 cents a pound up and down, up and down, just like silver, $50 to five, $50 to five, you know, for 50 years. Well, copper was in one for multiple decades. And in late 2005, it emerged above the top of that price range. Now, no doubt momentum factors would have told you ahead of time that's going to happen, just like it did with silver, for example. But then price broke out of the range. But what happened is it went to a new reality that was quadruple the average price of the average price of that prior reality, which let's call it a buck buck 50 to 50 cents for decades. And suddenly you went into a range that had highs at 450 to three bucks. and you lived, you could draw a sideways line since about 2006. Of course, copper's living in this zone of price that if you took the average of that price zone versus the average of the old price range, it's like a quadruple. And that occurred in a matter of a couple quarters, the movement from one to the other and then you're in a new reality. The same thing happened at a different time totally. So not coincident with copper with lead. Lead had been in the multi-deade range broke out and it quadrupled in a matter of a couple quarters and lived in a new reality. Now there's arguments and they're no no doubt valid that silver's been restrained. Well to the extent it's been restrained and an error has occurred, a pricing error. And when a market makes an error and compensates for it, whether it's a excessive upside or excessive downside, quite often the compensation for the error overshoots the new more valid reality that it should have been in. So if silver should be in a $200 to $300 range, maybe it goes to 500 first. It overshoots it because it, you know, excess begets excess. And so I think what we're going to see is something along that along that line. And I think silver has even more arguments than than copper or lead did. We know what they are. And it's not just the industrial aspect of silver. It's the monetary underlying massive wave that it's riding. So where is all this going? Michael Oliver says we're heading into a new reality. And the key word is new. Not just higher prices, not just another boom and bust cycle, but a redefinition of what silver is worth in a world that's breaking from financial convention. In his view, silver isn't just reacting to supply and demand. It's responding to something bigger. A shift in global confidence, confidence in fiat currencies, in central banks, in the idea that paper promises hold real value. And as that confidence crumbles, silver is reclaiming its role, not just as a metal, but as a monetary anchor. That's why this isn't the end of a run. It's the start of a repricing, a process that could carry silver into the hundreds and beyond before this cycle is done. And when it finally ends, it won't be with a whimper. It'll be with everyone looking back and realizing they missed the moment that changed everything. So, if you've been waiting for confirmation, understand this. It's already here. The breakout happened. The clock is ticking. And the longer the world ignores it, the more violent the revaluation will be if you want to stay ahead of what's next in the silver market and the broader financial reset. Make sure to subscribe and never miss an update. And remember, this is not financial advice. Always speak to a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.