If I had to guess, now I I'm really stupid to say this, and I I'm actually reluctant to say it, but I will say it. If I had to guess, by March, you'll see silver back at alltime highs. If I had to guess now, what do I know? But based upon what I see, the the the the 30 plus% swing back today.




  Boom. No. Where why am people freaking out when it goes back up 30%. Um, yeah, we'll get back up there. And I think it'll be buy or before March if I had to guess. And all that happened is that the metal went from weak speculative hands who were holding lots of leverage to the big money that says, "Thank you so much for that discount." >> Gold and silver have recouped some of their losses after what has been a volatile February, though they're still far from record highs of above $121 for silver and $5,600 for gold. Currently, March futures contract historically, the biggest silver delivery month of the year, has open interest of over 400 million silver ounces. That's four times the demand for registered silver that COMX holds. This is also assuming that the ComX is actually telling the truth on its stock piles. Veteran market expert Andy Sheckchman explains that the March silver contract is flashing a supply warning. He notes that even if only 10 to 20% of contracts demand physical metal, the available supply would be quickly strained. According to Sheckchman, the bullish signal isn't a comx default, but rising premiums for immediate delivery, tighter spreads, and increasing backwardation in the silver market. The mounting pressure on ComX silver delivery systems has created unprecedented market conditions where physical inventory constraints threaten the stability of paper contract settlement mechanisms. The current comx silver default risk emerges from a critical imbalance between massive open interest positions and diminishing registered silver stock piles available for physical delivery. In Sheckchman's view, the recent margin hikes and brutal sell-offs aren't market accidents. We are watching silver migrate from speculative paper hands into permanent physical vaults. The bull market isn't over. The ownership is just changing. The market is finally realizing that a paper contract is just a promise. And in a physical shortage, promises don't melt. The true driver of this next leg up isn't who has the most leverage, it's who actually has the metal in their vault. If you're ready for unfiltered truth and sharp market analysis, hit that subscribe button. Let's explore the latest insights from Andy Shechman's recent interview. >> The March silver contract is really shaping up to be really interesting. Um, right now the the March silver contract open interest, meaning contracts that could stand for delivery is between 80 million and 81 million. Right around 80 million, 500,000 contracts open interest. Um, now I suppose that kind of sounds abstract until I tell you that each contract is 5,000 ounces of silver. So that's over 400 million ounces of of paper silver that is tied to the March contract. The first day that they can stand for delivery is the 27th of this month. So 2 and 1/2 weeks away. But if you compare that to what is actually sitting in the coax, the registered category as of yesterday is 103.5 million ounces registered. Meaning ready for delivery metal um is one out of every four. Is that right? One out of every four ounces. 42 million ounces could stand for delivery standing against 103.5 million ounces. Now typically um most of these contracts will roll forward or cash settle but if even 10% of the March open interest stands for delivery that's 40 million ounces. If 20% stands that's 80 million ounces suddenly you're looking at a massive chunk of the registered category uh and the market has to react. So the bullish bet isn't that COMX defaults. I think it's simpler. I think that it's the price of immediacy rises, backwardation, the spreads tighten, and the market has to pay up or pull metal out of the eligible category, which is the other side of COMX, which right now has um 294 million ounces. So, we have a a a Brinks account in um New York City, JFK, one of our eight Brinks facilities. That's ComX. It's the only one of our eight brinks facilities that is a COMX facility and we have plenty of people with thousand ounce bars in those accounts. Those are eligible. They're not for sale. They could be because they are COMX eligible. They're in the ecosystem, but no one's going to sell on my side and all the people that are holding them ineligible. That's not for sale. So even if all of that metal went in, you're talking right now 294 and 103. you you're about 99% of open interest right now and it's all gone but most of that eligible stuff isn't for sale. The point I'm getting at is that you see what's happening in London. We see that we've had talked to David Jensen talks about uh 2 billion ounces of open interest contracts standing against 120 million ounces of physical. You see it right here. 103 million ounces of physical that is standing behind 4 million ounces or 400 million ounces of potential delivery. You see the the exchanges being bled dry in Shanghai. You're seeing games being played on the ETFs. You're seeing margin hikes. And all along the big money doesn't give a flying you know what. They just keep standing for delivery. It's the the the traders who think that they can play in this sandbox with these people who who are money is doesn't mean anything to them. And you may be very well healed. You know, our our company is very well well healed with the ability to have a massive inventory and the margin requirements needed for it, but if it kept going up, how much can we post? At what point does it just destroy the ability to maintain an inventory? So what they're doing is they're squeezing out the players who think that they're big enough to play in this game. And really what is happening is you are seeing a strategic repricing that is forcing out the speculators and putting it into the hands of the big money who is standing for delivery. What more do you need to see but that um it's painful, it's scary. Fear is a very very um strong emotion, probably the strongest. And when you see this fall, you get emotional. This is why there's Elliot wave theory and Kendradi of wave theory, the mass emotions of the herd. Separate yourself from your emotions and look at the reality. Nothing's changed. In fact, every day it's getting more and more and more obvious that this is where you need to be. Now, what just happened was contrived. It's BS. Should have never happened. Where were the stops on the >> the circuit breakers on the market? Yeah, >> the circuit breakers. though they have reasons why it didn't and they're using the millisecond thing, a bunch of nonsense, right? They stop it when they want. They This was contrived. It was done to I think probably either at the same time flush out all the speculators and bail out some of the the short positions by the big money. Um, you can't keep doing that when delivery when you see this huge arbitrage going on in China. You can't do it. All of that metal will arbitrage away from the COMX, from the LBMA. If I had to guess, now I I'm really stupid to say this, and I I'm actually reluctant to say it, but I will say it. If I had to guess, by March, you'll see silver back at alltime highs. If I had to guess now, what do I know? But based upon what I see, the the the the 30 plus% swing back today. Boom. No. Where why am people freaking out when it goes back up 30%. Um, yeah, we'll get back up there. And I think it'll be buy or before March if I had to guess. And all that happened is that the metal went from weak speculative hands who were holding lots of leverage to the big money that says thank you so much for that discount. By the way, I won't be standing for um um any margin. I'm just going to pay cash for it. And if you look who covered almost 700 contracts at 5,000 ounces a piece at the very very bottom. Oh, that's right. It was JP Morgan. How foolish of me to think otherwise. Do you get it? The big money is still in control, but they are showing you where this is going. Not ending the bull market, just ending just kind of showing the the big traders who's really in charge. And that is the big money until things get to a point where it's no longer about the ability to control things on paper. It's more about really who's got the physical. But there has to be a transition to get there. >> In the interview, Andy Sheckchman mentions the CME's move to push silver margins to record levels is often mistaken as a bearish warning when he sees it as confirmation that the rally is real and turning volatile. He explains that as prices and volatility climb, margin costs surge, squeezing leverage traders out of the futures market while leaving physical demand untouched. While paper traders are flushed out, institutional and government- linked buyers are stepping in. With silver now listed as a critical mineral, ongoing supply deficits, and growing discussion around strategic stockpiling and domestic reserves, Shckchman argues the bigger story is tightening physical supply. Meanwhile, margin hikes are accelerating the transfer of silver from weak hands to strong ones, setting the stage for the next phase of the bull market. While the retail crowd was panicking over a brief collapse in futures, the institutions were quietly staging a coup. Andy Sheckchman emphasizes that we've witnessed one of the largest single day silver inflows into the SLV on record. Let's jump into the interview. >> I think what people need to understand is, you know, first of all, the CME group raised margins to all-time highs. Um raising margins is uh first of all people think it's very bearish. Um in my mind it's not bearish. It it's the exchange telling you that this move is real and it's getting violent. Uh it's bearish at first because the amount of money needed to hedge positions increases exponentially. Um, they've raised it twice right around Christmas a few days before and the day after. Uh, it was like $18,000 to hedge 5,000 ounces of of silver right around Christmas time. The day after it went to 27,000 ounces and now we're we're above 53 54 $55,000. To hedge 5,000 ounces for a company like ours that would normally have 2 million ounces of silver in the warehouse becomes very expensive. you better have $50 million in your margin account or or you're not going to keep much in the way of hedged inventory of gold and silver. And but this is also true of speculators and you know the the the margins are a percentage of the contract's value. So when gold and silver go up the contract gets bigger and the margin uh requirement goes up automatically. That's a new thing. It used to be a fixed rate. Now they're making it a percentage. So, you know, they the math does this. As the price goes higher, okay, that's fine. 






But they're also adding volatility into the equation. And when the market starts getting swinging, like we're seeing up 30, down 30, they can um raise the percentage that you need on on margin. And that's when it really bites. And because now you're getting squeeze from both sides, higher prices and higher margin rates. But here's why it's bullish. And and to me, it's bullish because margin hikes don't stop physical demand. What they stop is paper leverage and and they force the weak hands out. And they reduce the ability to run giant positions just on thin collateral where you can control massive positions by having a small margin account. And and so yes, you will get a paper flush when this is implemented like we saw. And futures can and did drop when the leverage traders are forced to liquidate. But that's not the end of the bull market. That's the shakeout. And the people that have been standing for delivery as I've been really screaming about for quite some time now for 15 straight months. Sos they're not using margin. And so these are the big money the banks you know could it have been a one last attempt to bail out some of these US banks who still had now I've been we've been talking about the commitment of traders report that said the US banks are net long. We've talked about the uh the report that came out of the Economic Times that said the banks are net long, but being net long doesn't mean you're long only. That means you have more long than you do short. Now, could this massive price rise and all of this this attention that we've been seeing on silver um precipitate some concerns by some very big players in a coordinated fashion? They raise margins and smack the crap out of it. Yes. But what they really did was they chased leverage out of gold and silver. And when you do that, you don't make those that are holding sad metal weaker. Uh in in my opinion, you're you're putting it into stronger hands. And so, you know, that's kind of the tell to me. Margin hikes don't end bull markets in metals. Um, in my mind they usually mark the point where the next leg higher becomes inevitable because now it's in strong hands and the price is now moving up. I want to give you kind of what I mean by that too. So this is kind of one of the moments where the market confesses and uh you have the one day biggest one day drop in in silver uh maybe ever and everyone got emotional. People are screaming and panic and you know they assume demand vanished. But this is how these idiots work, okay? The very next day, SLV takes in the largest one-day metal inflow in years. Um, Dunigan, that's not panic buying. That's institutional metal transferring at a discounted price. And what I mean by that is that you had uh 550 million shares outstanding uh the day before it dropped. The day after it goes to 587 million. So that's a 36.3 million new shares that were created uh at roughly uh.905 ounces per share. That's about 33 million ounces of silver added in one day. And the authorized participants are the only one who can create those shares and they can only do so by delivering physical metal first. So think about really what that means. silver gets smashed and immediately after the smash tens of millions of ounces show up inside the ETF. This tells you that someone with a real balance sheet used the force liquidation this margin event to source physical metal cheap and park it where they control it and they control it inside of the ETFs. And this is metal migrating from forced sellers to the institutional vaults because these institutionals can do what's called share redemption. And they can redeem their their shares if you're an authorized participant in metal. And it's far more opaque than it is transparent. And it's just another mechanism they have to drain physical metal out of the ecosystem. But um when when you line up the the delivery pressure that we're seeing, the tightness in the registered inventories, which I want to talk about in a moment, um the all of this stuff, including what's going on in the ETFs, this is not normal flow. That's inventory reshuffling under what I think is major stress. And you know, um Richard Russell used to say something like this to me. He used to say that markets don't reveal themselves during the violence. They only reveal themselves after. And where price is the weapon freaks everyone out. But the inventory is the confession. The confession is we really don't have it. But we need to freak everyone out by flushing them out with price and margin increases. But nothing has changed. In fact, you know, now you get into this project vault that's come up where, you know, you got the US government that is acting very much like silver uh is not plentiful. It's acting like it's um it's strategic. Of course, they call it a strategic metal right now. We've had six straight years of a deficit. Of course, it's been added to the critical mineral list, but now you got this project vault, a brand new US critical mineral reserve. Um, and it's obvious that they're worried about um disruptions and they call it a public private structure designed to stockpile essential raw materials inside the United States to to protect supply chains. Uh, that that means they want to incentivize domestic mining also. So you put a floor under the price. And then you zoom out, you look at at COMX registered as the delivery pile, which is massively lower than a few years ago. and the LBMA is being bled dry. Um, you know, demand is rising, supply is constrained, and and the world is treating silver like it's a strategic input. They're admitting this right now. And so, I think that, you know, when governments start stockpiling, the message is simple. The scramble for the real stuff has begun. And if that's really what they're going to do, you better clean up your balance sheets if you're wickedly short. Metals staged a historic rally in 2025 that carried into early January with gold up over 65% and silver surging as much as 150%. Analysts linked the move to rising geopolitical tensions, concerns over Fed independence, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Bank of America's head of metals research. Michael Whidmer maintains his extraordinary $39 silver price prediction for 2026, representing a potential $279% gain from current levels based on historical gold to silver ratio compression. If silver is now being treated as a strategic asset and physical supply is this tight, are we watching the last shakeout before the market is finally forced to repric the real metal, not the paper promise? Let us know what you think in the comments. If this video brought you any knowledge, give it a like, subscribe, and ring that bell so you're always in the loop. See you in the next video.