I guess there's three things. One is the fundamentals are still there. The second thing is the reasons people have been buying gold still remain intact. [music] That certainly hasn't changed. And the third thing I would say is that there is >> You're watching Silver News Daily. Subscribe for more. >> The recent silver crash wasn't a warning sign. It was the final fake out before the biggest breakout in decades. Central banks are scrambling. The dollar is collapsing. And yet somehow the public still isn't paying attention. But if you look closer, this exact setup already happened once before, and it triggered one of the most violent bull markets in financial history. In the early 1970s, gold dropped hard, right before it exploded 10fold. Now, silver's doing the same thing. After hitting a 12-year high in October, prices suddenly plunged. Mainstream analysts say the run is over. But behind the scenes, something far more explosive is building. Central banks are dumping dollars at record speed. Silver is still wildly undervalued and investor positioning completely asleep. This is the kind of setup that only comes once in a generation. And when silver starts moving, it moves fast. So the question is, was this crash the end of the rally or the beginning of something far bigger? Let's find out. just looked at gold going from 3,300 in August to 4 thou over 4,000 today, you would be delighted, right? If you'd been away at a vacation somewhere for the last 2 weeks and didn't know it had got even higher. So, I mean, I think if we look in this in context, yes, this is absolutely the last two days we we've had absolutely very sharp declines, but if we look at it in context, I'll say a few things. as you first of all you said we're only back to where we were less than two weeks ago less than two weeks second point I would make is that even this dramatic decline for the last two days as dramatic as it is is less than 20% no less than 30% of the rally from September so and and given that that rally as you said was so extraordinarily sharp you when you have a pull pull back. You expect a pullback frankly of of as much as 50 or even 60% of of of um of the rally as a retracement. So we haven't seen that yet. And if you look back whether it's 2020 with co or 2011 obvious yeah 2011 uh 2009 2006 we've had declines similar to this in the past. They are not. This is not I've heard people say unprecedented. This is not unprecedented at all. And that's before you even go back to 1974. So, um I guess what I'm trying to say is just to put a bit of context on it. We had that very very dramatic move from the end of August until, you know, Monday. Um it was unclear how long it was going to go. My take is that nothing fundamental has changed. I I think the the move was certainly overdone and I use the expression several times overbought but are still underowned. There's no question it was overbought and there was nothing fundamental yesterday that set off this decline. That's important for people to realize. It wasn't that central banks suddenly said, you know, we don't need to diversify away from the dollar anymore. It wasn't that, you know, we've got we've got both in Gaza, uh, the the peace is looking a little bit fragile, but particularly in Ukraine with no meeting between Trump and Putin, you know, there was if anything, the news was was gold bullish. was nothing to caused this other than other than just the market dynamic that it had moved too far too fast and there were people looking to take profits and buyers saying well let's just wait a little bit. So that's my take and so long term I think or or long-term medium-term even uh the drivers of gold for the last 3 years the people buying gold and the reasons they were buying >> silver's recent pullback has all the hallmarks of a classic bull market trap the kind that shakes out the weak hands just before prices rip higher from October 15th to the 20th silver surged to $37 $7.40, its highest level in 12 years. But within a week, that gain was wiped out by a sharp correction, bringing the price back down to $32.85. Panic followed. Headlines warned of a reversal. But look deeper, and the story changes entirely. This wasn't a collapse. It was a textbook technical reset. Silver had just posted a 28% rally in under 6 weeks. The RSI was screaming overbought. Traders were overloaded with long positions. And then came a 12% pullback, almost exactly half the rally, right in line with Fibonacci retracement norms. This isn't unprecedented. Similar pullbacks happened in March and July of this year, and both times the bull trend resumed stronger than before. The 50-day moving average at $31.20 is holding firm as support. RSI is now neutral at 52, no longer overheated. Speculators have already trimmed 15% of their netl long positions on ComX, clearing the deck for another leg up. This is how bull markets breathe. They run, they cool, and they shake out the tourists. The fundamentals haven't changed. In fact, they've only strengthened. And just like in 1978 or 2010, every fake out brings us one step closer to a vertical move. market is increasing even as I see the possibility for the market to continue to go up and that is not contradictory at all. I mean, you can have a lot of risk that doesn't uh uh uh doesn't um what's what's the expression? What would I say? Doesn't come to fruition. And I'll never forget my friend Bill Barner, you know, gave a wonderful analogy of the guy that's at the party gets absolutely stoned drunk. It's 1:00 1:00 in the morning. He gets into a car. He speeds home at 80 mph on 30 mph street speed limit streets and finally stumbles into bed. Well, the fact that he arrived in bed safely does not mean there was not any risk and it's the same that I see with the stock market right now. So, number one, it is overvalued on any fundamental basis and I don't know how anyone can dispute that. Numbers. Number two, um the the breadth has become even more narrow than it was, you know, at the be at the end of last year, it was an all-time record, the narrow breadth, meaning there's only a handful of stocks of the lead in the market. And it's got even narrower um over the last uh 10 months. So, the breadth is really narrow. There's a lot of different indicators that market technicians use the Hindenburg omens or whatever and so on. And I'm not going to get into all of those, but all of these indicators are flashing red. And perhaps the most important one would be this ratio of insider sales to purchases. Now, there's a lot of reasons that insiders might want to sell. A lot of reasons. There's only one reason that you buy in the market. Unless you're trying to pump up your stock price, there's only one reason you buy in the market, and that is that you like it. And when the ratio of insider sales to buys is so overwhelmingly on the sell side, you know, a multi-deade, a multi-deade high. That's a that all of those four are indicators that the market is stretched and the next major move will be down. But none of what I've said none of what I've said will tell you when it's going to happen. Certainly doesn't tell you it's going to happen tomorrow morning. But from an investment point of view, I think what it does tell you is that there is increasing risk in the market. And so we're just being very very cautious with what we buy. We're buying defensive stocks which will tend to go down less than the rest of the market. Um or >> now here's where things start getting undeniable. The technical picture for silver isn't just intact. It's setting up for a major upside breakout. First, let's talk support. Silver's 50-day moving average sitting at $31.20 held like a rock during the correction. That's not just coincidence. That's institutional level defense. And it matters because in bull markets, that moving average often acts like a launch pad. Then there's the RSI now hovering at 52. This tells us the market has completely reset its momentum from the overbought readings above 70 in October. In other words, the rocket has refueled. But what really drives this point home is the retracement pattern. From the October high of $37.40 to the recent low, silver gave back just about 50% of its previous rally. That's not a breakdown. That's the golden ratio. And it's a classic sign of consolidation before continuation. Look back at previous silver bull runs and you'll see the same script. A spike, a sharp pullback, momentum cools, positions reset, and then blast off. Analysts at Metals Focus are now calling for $40 by the fourth quarter next year. The CPM Group expects $36 as an average, and even the bare case from UBS sees only limited downside. Why? Because technically the path of least resistance is up. As long as silver holds above the 50-day and maintains neutral momentum, the next move is likely to retest the October highs and from there it could get disorderly. The market is primed. The traders are cautious, but the chart the chart is bullish. That manic public participation before you can have a top. And you know, we know that gold in particular, but also silver. Gold and silver are very difficult to sort of they're difficult to come up with. What is the fundamental value? Because um uh uh you know with a with a company that makes widgets, you look at their sales revenue and you look at their sales, their price to sales and their price to earnings and you look at whether their costs are going up and you look at uh the dividend it pays. Uh when you look at gold, well, it doesn't pay a dividend. Um as we know the detractors keep telling us it doesn't earn anything. Okay. So what do you value it on? So you can value it on you know the price of gold today uh inflation adjusted compared with previous highs. That's a that's a that's one one metric but I don't think it's a be and all be all and end all apart from anything else. to CPI is a very very um uh unsatisfactory metric to use. Uh now if we went back to 1980 and used the methodology that they were using back in 1980 and use that the whole way through, well you'd find gold is still not uh particularly expensive. It's more or less at the same it's more or less just kept pace with inflation over that period. You can look at gold versus the money supply, US money supply, global money supply, US versus debt. I mean, gold versus debt. All of these are sort of metrics you can use that give you a gauge. No one is perfect. As with a widget manufacturer, you can say, well, I'm looking at the price to earnings. Um, right? But you can't do that with gold. But all of these metrics and then other people will look and one of my favorites frankly is the gold to Dow. So gold versus financial assets and now one is very very telling. Certainly we're off certainly we're off the bottom. No question about that. And we're perhaps meaningfully off the bottom, but we are so so far from those lows that is go the Dow being at a low to uh gold or highs I should say gold high relative to the Dow. We are so far from those points that we've seen in the past and have typically typically indicated a fundamental top for gold and a long-term uh you know a long-term decline. We're we're nowhere near that. We're still closer to the bottom than we are to the top. So on all those metrics, I think we can argue different ones will give us something different, but none of them none, not one of them is saying the gold is over. >> Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we're running a 10oz silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This Telegram will be our new home for real-time silver discussions, market insights, collection picks, and everything precious metals. It's where the community truly comes alive. Here's how to enter the 10oz silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell, comment 10 giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the Telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we'll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So, get in early, stay active. Despite silver's impressive run this year, it's still shockingly cheap, both in nominal and inflation adjusted terms. Let's start with the surface numbers. The recent high of $37.40 might feel like a win, but it's still a far cry from the 2011 peak of $49.50. Adjust that 2011 high for inflation using today's CPI and you get around $72 per ounce. Use the 1980 methodology and the number explodes to over $190. Now stack that next to silver's current price of $32.85 and you start to see the scale of the gap. We're not near the top. We're still deep in the discount zone. But the story gets even more ridiculous when you look at physical premiums. In October, premiums on silver eagles were up 15%. For generic rounds, premiums surged 20% month overmonth in September. That's not happening because silver's overvalued. That's happening because people are waking up. Physical demand is heating up even while the spot price stays suppressed. And it's not just retail buyers. Industrial users are locking in long-term contracts now, seizing what they know is a rare opportunity. In short, the world is quietly accumulating silver at prices that are decades behind reality. Analysts like Adrien Day call the current market remarkably undervalued. HSBC project silver hitting $85 by 2028. Some models show fair value right now between $65 and $70 per ounce, double today's price. And that's without public mania. And here's the kicker. Silver is up 38% year-to date while the CPI is only up 3.2%. So even after one of its best years in a decade, silver is still losing to inflationadjusted benchmarks. That's not a sign of a bubble. That's a flashing green light for what's still to come. >> Fact, that certainly hasn't changed. And the third thing I would say is that there is no mania. Um, I don't know how it is for you and you can say if you want or not say if you want, but some of the coin dealers I say I talk to will tell me that up until the last week, even if they've been busy, it's been as many people calling to sell gold and silver as it is to buy gold and silver. Uh, when you look at most mutual funds, and I'm not talking about our mutual fund now, and you know, we're not allowed to give out information before it's been publicly released. I'm not talking about ours, but I can tell you but most gold mutual funds, and I'm talking now obviously about equities, but most gold mutual funds have been seeing ongoing outflows for GDX, which is the minor ETF. If you look at the last month, it's had a small inflow, net inflow, but uh you know, for the last two months, 3 months, four months, it's been outflows. Um, and the point I'm making is that there is no broad public participation in this market and you cannot have a top. It's impossible to have a top in a market by definition almost without public participation. 2000 I mean 1980 you certainly had public participation. You will reme even though you weren't alive, you've seen the pictures, I'm sure, of people lining up at coin dealers, lining up around the block to buy gold. We haven't had this that this time. Um, so no mania, very very little in the way of public participation and and so I I just I just >> One of the clearest signs that silver is being massively mispriced lies in the gold silver ratio and right now it's screaming for a reversion. As of November 3rd, the ratio sits at 82:1. That means it takes 82 ounces of silver to equal the value of 1 oz of gold. Historically, that's a level reserved for extreme dislocations. In past bull markets, this ratio didn't just shrink, it collapsed. In 2011, it dropped to 31:1. In 1980, it fell as low as 15 to1. Each time, silver didn't just catch up to gold, it exploded past expectations. The current ratio is down from a peak of 98 to1 in March and it did compress to 78 to1 in October before widening again with the recent pullback. But this back and forth is all part of the setup. When the ratio is this high, institutions start arbitrageing the gap, dumping gold and rotating into silver. That's not theory. We're already seeing it reflected in mining equities. The SIJ ETF, which tracks junior silver miners, is up 45% year-to- date. Compare that to GDX, the gold miner ETF, which is up 28%. That's a 17% outperformance. And it's just the beginning. If the ratio merely compresses to 60:1, silver would need to rise another 36%. Even if gold stayed flat, and if it revisits the historic lows of 30 to1, we're talking about an explosive surge that could push silver to triple digits. SPAT asset management is already projecting 50 to1 by 2027. Meanwhile, even cautious analysts admit that silver's lag has created the potential for outsized moves. As Adrien Day recently put it, the ratio may not be as predictive as it once was, but it still confirms silver is behind. And when silver lags, it eventually leaps. In gold, nothing has changed. And and I'll just say for example central banks which have obviously been the most important uh buyer for the last three years particularly up and you know particularly um uh 23 24 and and the beginning of this year they've been almost almost holding gold up alone. If you look at the central banks, uh they're diversifying away from concentration in a single asset, an asset of a country that is fiscal has fiscal uh is fiscally irresponsible. And added to that, a country that is using its dominance, it's weaponizing its its dominance both with the dollar and with uh the Swift system. And this has been going on a while. And that's a point that I would want to estimate. Both the weaponization of the dollar and also the central bank's diversification away from the dollar has been going on for a while. If you go back to 1999, the beginning of this uh decade uh century uh uh in aggregate central banks had 78% of their foreign reserves in the dollar. 78% and by foreign reserves we mean for the bank of England not the British pound for the bank of Japan not the yen so foreign reserves 78% were in the dollar 5 years ago that was down to about 65% last year according to the IMF uh uh it ended the year at 50 uh 58% and in August ECB said it was um 48%. And of so this has been going on a long time and what I would say is that the drivers nothing has changed. Uh I'm not going to get political but I would say even if this administration didn't start the onslaught they've done nothing to change it or to stop it. And if you're a central bank worried about concentration of a single asset from a fiscally irresponsible government which might weaponize its dominance. Well, I asked a question, is 48% still too much? And I would say 48% is still too much. So, we're going to get continued uh uh reduction in the dollar. And remember, these countries are continuing to earn dollars all the time. So, we're going to get continued uh divers uh you know, reduction in the in the percent in the dollar. And where is that going to go? Some will go to euro. The euro is at about 20 22% of of central banks foreign reserves. For the aggressive ones, some will go to the yen or some might go even to the Australian dollar or something. But this is this is at the margin. Most of those assets other than the euro, most of those assets are going to go to gold and that's going to continue in my view. That was a long answer. I'm sorry, but I just wanted to sort of set the >> While the technicals and ratios paint a bullish picture, the real fuel behind silver's coming explosion is something far deeper. A growing structural supply crisis that the market can't ignore much longer. In 2025 alone, we're looking at a projected deficit of 215 million ounces. That's the second largest shortfall ever recorded. And it's not a temporary blip. It's the continuation of a multi-year trend that shows no signs of reversing. Silver mine production has flatlined at 830 million ounces despite growing demand across the board. Recycling is up 4%, but that's barely scratching the surface. And industrial consumption, it just keeps climbing. Fabrication demand now makes up 57% of total silver usage compared to 45% a decade ago. Solar, EVs, electronics, AI infrastructure, it's all demanding more silver every single year. And the supply just isn't there. What happens when supply can't keep up? Inventories get drained. Comics alone is down 28 million ounces year to date. That's not retail panic. That's the professionals quietly pulling bars out of the system. And every time silver re-enters a deficit cycle like this, the floor gets higher. In 2024, the low was $22.50. In 2025, it's already risen to $26.50. This rising floor effect shows the underlying price strength, even through the volatility. And let's not forget the geopolitical risk. Strikes in Peru have cut 12 million ounces of annual output. Mexico's grades are declining. New mines aren't coming online fast enough. According to the CRU Group, it would take a price above $40 to even begin incentivizing new production. That's the baseline, not the top. Until we hit that threshold, deficits will continue and silver's price will be forced higher simply out of necessity. So, while investors debate charts and ratios, the real battle is playing out underneath the surface in the cold, hard data of supply and demand. And right now, supply is losing. things will will affect them. So the big question with copper to me is the global economy and particularly the Chinese economy. China is still the largest consumer of copper uh largest importer of copper and so we have to watch the Chinese economy if that if that slows and there's mixed signals at the moment you know they seem to be the growth seems to be continuing okay but the but but it's it's moving towards a deflationary environment now as you know you can have growth and deflation in fact that's the that's the ideal real situation, right? To have economic growth and and deflation at the same time. But more often than not, uh you know, deflation might indicate weakness ahead. So that's something we have to watch. But other than that um you know even if the electric vehicles which use more copper than internal combustion engines of course but even if uh you know the demand for EV slows down even if electrification goes slower than we expect you know you make the most conservative assumptions on all of the different demand equations you know these um uh data centers and so on and so forth. make make conservative assumptions and we still don't have enough copper from current production or from current um projected production. Um we still don't have enough uh production to meet those those demands. So you know five or within five or 10 years uh that's going to be resolved with higher prices. Of course, could be a new technology, but more likely. >> Just before we get going, we just launched the official Silver News Daily Telegram. To kick things off, we're running a 10oz silver giveaway. Yes, real physical silver, not a voucher, not digital credits, actual bullion. This Telegram will be our new home for realtime silver discussions, market insights, collection picks, and everything precious metals. It's where the community truly comes alive. Here's how to enter the 10oz silver giveaway. Be subscribed to Silver News Daily on YouTube. Turn on the notification bell. Comment 10 oz giveaway on three separate videos. Be an active member of the Telegram group and say hi. Once we hit 500 active Telegram members, we'll pick one lucky winner to receive 10 ounces of silver shipped directly to you. So, get in early. Stay active. >> Sure. Whatever I buy, I would make sure they have a strong enough balance sheet uh that they can withstand another 6 or 12 months of of current prices. Um uh copper is another one, you know, that's very cheap. Copper is is very cheap relative to gold. And the copper story itself is a very strong one. You know, we're simply not finding enough large copper mines. You know, large copper mines, that is something that's going to be in the top 20 global global uh production. Uh well they're very very rare obviously but and if you look at even the top 10 you look at the top 10 copper producers right now some like uh what seven of them were pre-960 and five of them were 19th century started in the 19th century uh we had very very few large uh you know really large copper mines come on we've got a temporary problem at at the moment, you know, with Cobra Panama, which was about 2% of global production shut down by the Panameanian government. You've got Grassburg, which is one of the top um copper mines in the world, number four, I think, that's closed down temporarily because of the accident they had there. And then you've also got temporary shutdowns or reductions at two other, you know, top 10 mines. So right now there's a particular a particular squeeze. But I guess the point I would make is that things like that are not uh are not rare unfortunately in the in the copper business. Uh you know copper mines are huge. As I say they're old which means they're very very deep. And so mines, I mean, I I remember an um 10 years ago when a mine in in Chile had to close down temporarily because of an earthquake 200 miles away. But because they're so deep, >> if the supply crisis is the floor under silver, industrial demand is the rocket fuel. And this isn't some slow burning trend. It's accelerating faster than anyone predicted. In 2025, industrial offtake accounts for a staggering 57% of total silver demand. That's more than half the market, and it's only growing. The biggest driver, solar. The solar industry alone is expected to consume 230 million ounces this year, up 18% year-over-year. By 2030, Bloomberg NEF projects that number could hit 400 million. Why? Because silver isn't optional in solar panels, it's essential. No other metal matches its conductivity or reliability in photovoltaic cells, especially as efficiency standards rise. Governments around the world are throwing billions at renewable infrastructure, and silver is at the heart of it. But solar is just one piece. Electric vehicles are ramping up globally, and each one requires 25 to 50 g of silver. With EV sales in China alone up 42% in September, that demand is surging. Add in hybrids, and we're looking at 85 million ounces going into vehicles this year, up 20%. And then there's the AI boom. Data centers and high performance GPUs now require significantly more silver than older tech. Nvidia's latest GPUs use 15% more silver per unit compared to 2023. The AI infrastructure is projected to add another 50 million ounces of demand by 2028. And here's where it gets interesting. Industrial users can't just stop buying when prices go up. These are non-cancellable contracts. Production lines don't halt because silver is $40 instead of $30. In fact, price dips often trigger more forward buying as companies try to lock in costs ahead of anticipated price spikes. This ratchet effect means every dollar increase in silver isn't just tolerated, it's absorbed. Unlike investment demand, which is emotional and volatile, industrial demand is steady, aggressive, and completely inelastic until prices hit extreme levels, which they haven't yet. But when they do, the price ceiling will be determined not by traders, but by industries desperate to keep their supply chains alive. growth is is is peaking has peaked and what else is going to replace it in the near term we don't know. So that's number one. And the number two thing of course is just this whole green narrative that's taken place in the last 10 years where people um I mean not even if you were not opposed on principle to oil and gas and as you know a lot of funds in Europe in particular would just um refuse to invest in oil and gas. But even if you weren't of that camp, you could see the writing on the wall with all these no more internal combustion cars by 2030, you know, uh no more oil by 2040. Absolutely totally totally unrealistic targets. And now, as you know, we're beginning different countries are beginning to back away from some of those targets. But I do think that had a huge impact. It had a huge impact on uh the capital investment that the oil and gas companies made. Um and it had a huge impact on investment sentiment towards that se sector. You know, the sentiment towards oil and gas is weaker than anything else other than coal. I'm not sure there's anything else uh with a weaker sentiment. You look at the S&P for example, 15 years ago, 20 years ago, oil and gas was 18, 20, 22% different years of the S&P. Right now it's less than 2%. It is such an out of favor uh sector. Um and if you look at uh uh you know I I gave a talk recently where I where I was saying to people we may see a correction in gold but this is not the top. I think gold and gold stocks have a lot further to go. But but other things are even cheaper. Oil and gas relative to gold is at I I saw a table. I can't you know I saw a table and oil and gas relative to gold is at an unprecedented extreme. It's never been that cheap relative to um uh gold. So I think for those reasons uh because people are realizing that the shales have peaked and even if they don't realize it they have peaked which means that the production is not going to go up. Um and and the and the uh sentiment is shifting away from this well we'll we'll have no more oil and gas you know in in 15 years time. Um uh so yeah so so I think we're going to see oil and gas um make a bit of a comeback and there are some good companies. The only thing I would say is I would I would make >> Now let's connect the final dots because while silver's supply crunch and industrial surge are powerful on their own what's really going to light the fuse is what's happening to the dollar behind the scenes. A silent revolution is underway. Central banks are bailing on US treasuries and quietly hoarding gold at a record pace. In just the first half of 2025, they bought 480 tons. That puts them on track for nearly 900 tons by year end. And here's the twist. Every time central banks load up on gold, silver follows. Why? Because silver has a 0.85 correlation to gold. When gold runs, silver doesn't walk, it sprints. The difference is gold moves first because it's the reserve asset. But when investors realize silver is the leveraged play on the same macro trend, it unleashes a wave of catch-up buying that historically outpaces gold's returns by multiples. But it's not just about gold anymore. The dollar is crumbling. IMF data shows global reserves held in dollars have dropped to 48%. Down from 58% in 2023. Countries like China and India are dumping dollars and boosting precious metal reserves instead. The People's Bank of China added 15 tons of gold in September. India's central bank added 8 tons in quarter 3. This isn't random. It's coordinated ddollarization. And while central banks don't officially hold silver, their moves shift sentiment across the entire precious metals complex. As trust in fiat evaporates, investors aren't just turning to gold. They're also turning to silver. Especially as gold becomes scarce and expensive. The arbitrage opportunity becomes irresistible. Swapping overvalued gold for undervalued silver becomes not just logical but essential. This pressure is already being felt. Gold's strength is anchoring the entire metals market. With comx supply tightening and central bank flows draining available metal from the system, silver is about to ride the same wave only harder, faster, and with far more upside. Because in a world where paper money burns, silver isn't just a commodity. It's monetary rebellion. >> That huge increase in production from the US shales. and the US shales actually have contributed uh about 90% of the global growth in oil over that period. Now I I'll say it again cuz I don't want people to say misunderstand what I said. I'm not saying they represented 90% of production. I'm saying 90% of the global growth in production came from the shales and they've been they've just been a phenomenal um you know the the huge increases in in oil and gas from the shales has been fabulous but as always we extrapolate things way into the future. Um and and people people miss that the shales most of the big shale fields have now peaked and the remaining ones will probably peak if not this year next year. So uh we're not going to continue to see growth from the shales. Now how long are those tails? I I won't go into it because I'm not a a a a whatever they call them, geoysicist or something. I I I I I I don't I won't go into all the details. There are reasons to think that the tales on shale are a lot shorter uh than the tales on traditional fields. But but either way, they pete. No one can deny that. And so we're not going to continue to see growth from the shales. That's number one. Number two, and and what what what are the new fields that are going to replace it? That's another that's another big question. What are the new fields that are going to replace it? And I'm not sure what they are right now. Uh there's there is some on offshore success, you know, offshore Venezuela and Guyana um in that northern bit of of South America. Uh which might partly um be the reason for President Trump getting interested in in the narco boats down there. Um, so that's a potential, but you know, the Brazilian offshore fields, the North Sea, all of these things, um, we can't Mexico, we can't expect to give us another big boost in production. So the shale, which is 90% of a >> So here we are after months of relentless buying by central banks, a collapsing dollar, a tightening supply chain, and industrial demand going vertical, silver is sitting on the launch pad. And the target, it's not $50. It's not even $100. The real insiders are pointing to $500. Sound crazy? So did $50 in 2010. So did gold at $2,000. But look at the setup. Inflation adjusted highs above $190. Gold silver ratio still at 821. Structural deficits projected to persist for years, and public interest still near zero. The market hasn't gone parabolic yet because the public hasn't arrived. But when they do, when the headlines hit, when silver breaks $40, $50, and momentum traders flood in, the repricing won't be gradual. It'll be violent. By the time the average investor hears the words silver breakout, it'll already be too late. This is the final warning. The $500 price target isn't hype. It's math. It's momentum. It's monetary physics playing out in real time. The only thing missing is you. So, if you want to stay ahead of the reset and understand the full story behind the coming silver explosion, make sure to subscribe. And remember, this is not financial advice. Always speak to a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. >> Dividend paying stocks which will give you a dividend even if the stock price declines. And mostly, frankly, we're just holding cash. um we're just holding cash instead of buying stocks. And now we're also buying global stocks. I should say that. But in terms of the US market, um I I think it's just a time to be really cautious. And again, things will change probably just as suddenly, just as much without warning as they did in the gold market. You know, they say famously, they don't ring the bell at the top. You know, one day after five up days, we're suddenly going to turn on the Bloomberg and the market will be down. And there may not even be a fundamental reason for it. It's just that you finally exhaust buyers um and and and the market stops going up. The thing about the stock market, particularly in the US, of course, that's really important to understand is that most of the money flowing into the US stock market comes from 401ks. So, it's regular contributions. And so, so long as employment is still relatively strong and people are still employed, that money will still go into 401ks. And most of the 401k money in my experience will go into the US stock market. I mean, every year I get these my clients will send me, "Oh, it's it's that time of year again, Adrian. You know, um, I've got to decide where my 401 contributions are going for the year ahead." And, you know, they've given me five choices. Well, it's US big cap and US small cap. There's probably a global fund in there somewhere. there's a bond fund or a you know a treasury fund um and that might be it. There's no gold fund, there's no resource fund, there's no short fong shorts hedge strategy, there's no emerging market fund or anything. And so people pe people my clients who you know my clients who are educated on gold and like gold they will say um well I guess you're taking care of gold and you put a lot in the foreign markets eh I may as well just stick it in the S&P and so I'm sure that is true for an awful lot of an awful lot of people around around the country just keep it in the S&P and so so long as employment continues to be relative relatively strong and and I personally think it's a the labor the employment picture in the US is much much weaker than the headlines will suggest but you know so long as we don't have a you know broad uh layoffs and unemployment I think that money is going to continue to flow but again like the drunk who finally gets into bed doesn't mean that there's no risk I heard a wonderful metaphor the other day somebody said um I I know some of you want to continue dancing well until the party ends. Well, make sure you're dancing very close to the door.